Super Tuesday:
A Victory of Moderation
By Professor Howard Reiter of University of Connecticut
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March 9, 2000 -- Like most of New England, Connecticut gave John McCain and Al Gore a good night on Super Tuesday.
McCain's victory came despite George W. Bush's endorsement by Governor John G. Rowland and every Republican member of the state legislature. The governor's discomfiture was made worse by the fact that, anticipating a Bush victory, Rowland had ensured that the primary be winner-take-all. Therefore Bush and his supporters, including the state GOP establishment, were left with no delegates.
The reasons for McCain's victory include the moderation of Connecticut
Republicans; when Bush became the candidate of the party's right wing
and McCain the champion of liberals and moderates, the Arizonan's chances
for victory in Connecticut improved. According to the exit polls, fewer
than
half the GOP primary voters identified themselves as conservatives. The
relative weakness of the religious right in New England was another factor
hurting Bush; only about one out of eight voters identified with the group.
McCain's appeal to Democrats and independents helped, too, as non-voters
and those not registered with a party had until noon the day before the
primary to register as Republicans, and many took advantage of the opportunity.
It should also be noted that in Connecticut, as elsewhere, McCain appealed
to highly educated voters, and as an unusually wealthy state, Connecticut
has many such voters. Indeed, on the whole McCain ran better than Bush
in wealthier towns, and even carried Greenwich, once the home of the Bush
family.
On the Democratic side, Connecticut's voters have often supported insurgent
candidates, and Bradley indeed ran a closer race than he did in most states.
However, as elsewhere he did not appeal strongly enough to his targeted
liberal voters. Exit polls had him running only seven percent
better among liberals than among moderates, and he ran best of all among
conservatives. Gore's strength among labor union members and African-Americans
helped doom Bradley's cause. The vice president ran best in traditionally
Democratic cities and towns, especially lower-income urban areas and where
black voters are most concentrated. As a result, Gore's strongest showing
was in the city of Hartford, where he walloped Bradley by a four-to-one
margin.
It is noteworthy that Bradley's geographic vote profile resembled those of earlier Democratic challengers, Gary Hart in 1984 and Jerry Brown in 1992, and even had some similarity to John McCain's. This suggests the possibility of an ongoing constituency for reform, but one that Bradley was unable to mobilize effectively this year.
