Will the Democrats Be Forced Out of Paradise?

By Ira Rohter, professor of Political Science at University of Hawai`i - Manoa

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Since the late 1950s Democrats have controlled Hawai`i's State Legislature, most county governments, and nearly all U.S. Congressional offices. Since 1962 only Democrats have held the state's most powerful office, the governership. In the 1996 election, Clinton-Gore swamped Dole-Kemp 55% to 31%, with 7% to the Reform Party and Ross Perot. With few exceptions, all four of Hawai`i's Congressional seats have been held by Democrats for years. In the 1998 Senate race, Daniel Inouye - who has been in Washington since 1959 - garnered 76% of the vote, while his token Republican opponent received a mere 17%. His two House colleagues, Representatives Neal Ambercrombie and Patsy Mink, won their 1998 races by 60% and 66%, respectively.

But Hawai`i has changed greatly over the years, and local Democratic leaders seem constantly unable to respond creatively to many serious state-level problems. In 1998 the Republican candidate for governor, Mainland-born Caucasian Linda Lingle, lost her challenge to Island-born incumbent Governor Ben Cayetano by only 5354 votes. Twelve Republicans now hold seats in the state House.

Next November Hawai`i's voters will go to polls to vote for a president, one U.S. Senate, and two U.S. House seats. In-state, Islanders will also choose Honolulu and Hawai`i Island mayors, half the State Senate, and all the State House members. Races for County Council seats - the only local governments - will be run on Kauai, Maui, and Hawai`i Island.

The burning question many ask about the 2000 election is "Will the Democratic Party's 40 years of virtual single-party rule come to an end?"

The short answer is "certainly not this year." Yes, Hawai`i's Democratic Party is in deep trouble, but powerful one-party regimes don't change overnight. As one knowledgeable observer noted recently about Mexico's PRI Party, which has reigned for 70 years, "Mexico's political structure is a buddy system, a dense clientilist web that will take generations to untangle." This comes close to describing why Hawai`i's longstanding old-boy political network, while slowly unraveling, will not disappear overnight. Important also is the inability of the Republicans to offer and support viable opponents.

Times Are Achanging

While the Mainland U.S economy has boomed, Hawai`i's economy has for the last 7 years been in a semi-recession. Its economic future remains uncertain as its three traditional major drivers have faltered. The sugar plantations have mostly closed down, military spending is flat, and Hawai`i's main economic engine - the tourism industry - has shifted from booming growth to downturn to only modest growth. Hawai`i's large, centralized and expensive State government structure is also being questioned. And Hawai`i's once unique natural environment and blend of diverse cultures bear the scars of urban development and social "modernization." Some complain that Hawai`i is becoming virtually a suburb of Southern California, with a more Polynesian-Asian twist - but with low paying jobs.

Hawai`i Is Still Mostly a Liberal State

Hawai`i remains among the most liberal of all states. The Democrats captured control of Island in the late 1950s when they overthrew the old ruling Republican Party business élite via the ballot box. The Democrats were rooted in the multiple minorities brought originally to the islands to work as cheap labor on the sugar and pineapple plantations. The oppressive nature of plantation life fostered animosity towards the ruling business élite, who dominated the Republican Party. The unions and the Democratic Party became the vehicles for the acquisition of power by these ethnic groups, who set aside their cultural differences and united with a common goal of bettering their economic and social opportunities.

This history is still very much alive, but becoming less relevant as old attitudes are changing among locally-born residents, and newcomers have settled in the Islands with quite different values. Union membership rolls have dwindled and labor's visionary leaders have died off. Among locally-born residents, the younger generation is more educated and less seeped in plantation docility than their parents.

The Congressional Old-Guard

One Senator and both Representatives are up for election this year. Given the Islands' history, it is not surprising that Hawai`i Congresspeople, who have held office for many years, are among the most unrepentant "liberals" in Congress. Over the years few serious challengers have appeared to threatened their tenure in Congress.

Senate Race

Daniel Kahikina Akaka, 75, is the first U.S. Senator of Native Hawaiian ancestry. He has served in the Senate since 1990. Akaka was first elected to Congress in 1976, and won seven consecutive elections by large margins. In 1990 Akaka won a strongly contested special election to replace one of Hawai`i's first Senators since Statehood, "Sparky" Matsanaga. In 1994 Akaka won re-election with over 72 percent of the popular vote.

While powerful senior Senator Dan Inouye does the heavy hitting in Congress, Akaka focuses on local issues and maintaining close ties to his constituents. He has promoted renewable energy research and development, tropical agriculture, forestry, and aquaculture research, marine protection and environmental preservation, veterans' issues, and the rights of indigenous peoples. Akaka has voted with the majority of Democrats more than 90 percent of the time since joining the Senate.

Akaka is once again a heavy favorite with no serious challenger on the horizon. Although Republican claim Akaka would be vulnerable on such issues as tax cuts, the federal budget and federal control over state funding, that's just political rhetoric. In a poll conducted in May of 1999, 53% rated him as doing either an "excellent" or "good" job in office, while only 8% gave him a "poor" rating. 50% said they will vote for him in 2000, while only 18% said they want to replace him with a Republican. Another 26% said they would "consider" a GOP challenger, but none have shown up.

Political observers credit the easygoing, mild-mannered Akaka's success to a combination of hard work and innate likability. "With his personality and his ways of aloha, Danny was always well liked. And he had a liberal point of view, which is quite attractive to Hawaii," said Russell Okata, executive director of the Hawaii Government Employees Association, one of the State's most powerful unions.

House Races

Representative Patsy Mink, born on Maui 72 years ago, is a veteran of 22 years in the U.S. Congress (1965-1977, 1990 - present). She was the first Asian-American woman to serve in Congress, and is a steadfast supporter of liberal causes, especially education, civil liberties, women's rights, and concern for low income families. She is known as being very responsive to her constituents.

Mink, whose district represents the Neighbor Islands and the more rural part of O`ahu (Honolulu), is exceedingly popular and still an exciting campaigner. She has not had a serious challenger in years. In 1998 she defeated the token Republican by 66% to 23%, with the Libertarian receiving 6%. No challengers, Democrat or Republican, have announced that they intend to run against her.

Four-term incumbent Neil Abercrombie, 62, is the most vulnerable federal officeholder. Proudly labeling himself a "Progressive Democrat," he vociferously champions the causes of human services and the labor movement. Abercrombie, like Mink, receives top ratings from the American Civil Liberties Union and Americans for Democratic Action.

Born on the Mainland, Abercrombie is a former state Representative (`74-`78), state Senator (`78-`86), and served first in the U.S. House in 1986-87. He's been in Congress since 1991 representing the urban area of Honolulu. Early in his career, Abercrombie was well known for his flowing long hair and full beard, liberal stands, and impassioned speeches. He trimmed his beard and long hair (and some say his ideals) soon after he had a close race in 1996 from Reagan-style Republican Orson Swindle. The strongly conservative Swindle, a Vietnam war hero, ran a surprisingly strong campaign and exploited the economic malaise being experienced in the Islands. Abercrombie won the election by the narrowest of margins, 48.5% to 44.7%.

Although a staunch "liberal," and member of the "dissenting" faction during his State Legislature days, Abercrombie has maintained good relations with labor leaders and other Democratic Party power-brokers, including the current Governor and senior Senator Dan Inouye. In 1998 they helped him gather in $1 million in campaign funds and provided troops to mount an effective campaigns against another conservative Republican. This time Abercrombie won by 66% to 23% (with the Libertarian getting 6%), but many believe Abercrombie is still vulnerable.

A strong challenge might come from Mufi Hannemann, former Chair of the Honolulu City Council, Harvard basketball star, White House Fellow, and cabinet member in the administrations of two governors. Hannemann has made his attempts toward Congress twice before, losing a close race to Abercrombie in 1986 and being beaten more handily by Mink in 1990, but he has prepared well for his third run. He has $600,000 money in the bank already, the connections to collect lots more, and a large database of voters' names. Also, as one local pundit put it, "he's a hellaciously good campaigner." His Samoan ancestry would be another plus in a district with a majority of non- Caucasians voters. Though Hannemann has been a lifelong Democrat, there are rumors that he might run as a Republican this time to satisfy his deep ambition to return to Washington.

Race for President

As the beginning of February the race for president is strictly a spectator sport for Hawai`i's voters. No candidates have visible campaigns. If the Democrats follow their usual pattern, the Governor and the heads of the party will support Vice President Gore. His values are certainly consistent with Hawai`i's liberal inclinations, and his connections to power in Washington do not go unnoticed.

On the Republican side, neither Bush or MaCain is known in the Islands. While the party apparatus may generate a modest level of support for Bush, it's McCain who could stir up some real excitement. Hawai`i is proud of its own war veterans and has a good number of retired military personnel living here. Mainstream Republicanism is not so popular, but McCain's stance of independence and anti-status-quo views could energize Hawai`i's Republican Party as it seeks to capture the Governorship in 2002.

In sum, the old-line Democrats are vulnerable because of their inability to come up with creative solutions to a faltering economy and over-bureaucratized government. But the Republicans still fail to offer a coherent philosophy that is compatible with the social history of Hawai`i, and lack a strong organizational base (such as unions) to support Republican candidates. Most of the brightest newcomers still call themselves Democrats and see their political futures in reinventing the party still mostly in control.