The Changing Face
of the Idaho Electorate
By James Weatherby, professor of political science, Boise State University
(Posted November 1999)
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Idaho is a very conservative, Republican state that has experienced substantial growth over the past decade. The growth, however, has not moderated Idaho's politics even though it has generated significant surpluses in its state and local government coffers. Despite its high percentage rate of growth, the state's population is still only a little over 1.2 million and in presidential politics it barely makes the electoral map with only 4 votes.
Idaho's history reflects a more competitive political heritage than the above might suggest. For example, Idaho voters gave George Bush only a plurality (42%) of the votes in 1992. From 1971 to 1995, the Democrats controlled the governor's office. In 1991, the State Senate was evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. And twice during this decade the voters defeated two major property tax limitation measures and also rejected an anti-gay rights initiative.
In other words, the state may not be as Republican as its large number of Republican officials seem to indicate or be as influenced by some of the more extreme conservative attitudes dominant in other states. Most public opinion polls in Idaho indicate that Republicans are a bare majority in the electorate and the rest are independents and Democrats. Idahoans have a history of being somewhat independent and maverick and have rewarded Democrats like Senator Frank Church and Governor Cecil Andrus. Voters again could provide some surprises in 2000 and take a step toward reversing the string of Republican victories.
Presidential Politics
Since 1964, Republican presidential candidates have won Idaho's 4 electoral votes. But George Bush's relatively narrow victory in 1992 may suggest that a viable third party candidacy like Perot's in 1992 could find fertile ground in Idaho and undermine a centralist candidate like George W. Bush.
The state's Republicans have been burned by abortion politics. If abortion is on the national political agenda it could dilute the Republican vote in Idaho as anti-abortion politics did in 1990.
However, there is little doubt that the Republican presidential candidate will carry Idaho in November. The only real question will be the margin of victory.
Congressional Politics
Idaho has two congressional districts. The first district made up northern and southwestern Idaho features an open seat for 2000 since the incumbent Helen Chenoweth-Hage has honored her self-imposed term limit pledge. Most of the attention is in the Republican May 23 primary where three candidates are vying for what they consider to be the "real" election. Idaho Lieutenant Governor C.L. "Butch" Otter is being challenged by former Republican State Chair Ron McMurray and Idaho Family Forum former Executive Director Dennis Mansfield. It promises to be a spirited if not very negative campaign. Mansfield has already called Otter a law-breaker and demanded that he withdraw from the campaign. The main hope of the Democrats is that the Republicans will nominate the more socially conservative Mansfield, whose ability to alienate Republican legislators (among others) may play into the hands of the Democratic nominee, especially if the Democratic nominee positions himself or herself close to the center of the political spectrum - a strategy most Idaho Democratic politicians have not learned.
The only announced Democratic candidate is Linda Pall, a colorful Moscow city council member,who at least could make the general election race interesting. The bottom line, however, is that this district has been very unpredictable. Favorites have lost in many elections including the upset primary victory of Helen Chenoweth-Hage who defeated two establishment candidates in the 1992 primary and the favored incumbent in the 1992 general election..
The second district should be a cakewalk for first term Congressman Mike Simpson, despite the fact that he does not always fall in line with the rest of the congressional delegation on such issues as gun control and wilderness designation.
Legislative and Gubernatorial
There is no contest for Governor. Dirk Kempthorne's term will expire in 2002. The overwhelming Republican legislature, the most Republican in the country with an 85 percent majority, will continue its dominance. Public opinion polls indicate that the public is satisfied with the direction the state is going and that citizens are not particularly concerned about the overwhelming GOP control.
Ballot Measures
Similar to other western states, ballot initiatives have sometimes dominated Idaho politics, at least prior to 1997 when the Idaho Legislature "reformed" the initiative process by making it far more difficult for initiatives to qualify for statewide ballots. The most interesting initiative that may be on the 2000 ballot is a proposition that would move the effective date for state executive and legislative term limits ("ballot access") from 2004 to 2002. All other veteran officials, except for some county commissioners and school board members, are denied ballot access beginning in 2002. There is also a possibility that the 2000 legislature may try to repeal parts of the 1994 term limits initiative and risk the voters' wrath in November. Yet another issue was raised in late January by 21 locally-elected officials who filed suit challenging the constitutionality of the 1994 state law on the basis of equal protection and the right of suffrage including the right to have their names appear on the ballot.
