The Nation's Political Weather Vane

By Richard J. (Rick) Hardy, Ph.D., Department of Political Science, University of Missouri-Columbia

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The state of Missouri has acquired many monikers over the years. Most observers refer to Missouri as the Show Me State, a reflection of its rich political culture which stresses traditionalism, conservatism, individualism, and especially, skepticism toward centralized governmental authority and innovative public policies. Still others refer to Missouri as the typical American state. It is, after all, the geographical center of the nation, and ranks roughly in the middle of all states with respect to both population size and median income. Additionally, Missouri is often called the nation's microcosm, because its ethnic composition, economic diversity and urban/rural balance generally reflects the demographic cross-section of America writ large.

Missouri might also appropriately be called the nation's political weather vane. In terms of presidential politics, as Missouri goes, so goes the nation. Indeed, during the 20th century, the Show Me State complied the nation's best record for delivering Electoral College votes to the winning presidential tickets. Since 1904, Missouri has been wrong just once. The lone miss was 1956, when Missouri cast its electoral votes for Adlai Stevenson of Illinois. Given this impressive record, politicians and political pundits alike might do well to watch this political weather vane.

Presidential Politics 2000

In terms of the presidential selection process, Missouri has nearly always been a caucus state. This practice was temporarily abandoned in 1988, when the Democrat-controlled General Assembly opted for a presidential primary as a way of helping favorite-son candidate Rep. Richard Gephardt secure an early delegate victory. Missouri returned to the presidential caucus format in 1992 and 1996, but has once again chosen the primary method for the 2000 election cycle. Missouri will hold its primary on so-called Super Tuesday, March 7, the same day that New Jersey, California, New York and a dozen other states hold theirs.

On the Democratic side, former Sen. Bill Bradley appears to have clear grassroots advantage over Vice President Al Gore. Bradley, a high school basketball legend from Crystal City (a small town located on the Mississippi River just south of St. Louis) is Missouri's favorite son. He continues to rack up endorsements from leading Democrats in both houses of the Missouri General Assembly and from powerful officials in pivotal areas, namely St. Louis County, Jackson County (Kansas City) and Boone County (Columbia). Vice President Al Gore may have support from the top Democratic statewide leaders and congressional delegation, but those leaders have kept their cards close to their vests. If the primary election were held today, look for Bradley to capture a majority of Missouri's 92 Democratic delegates (which, in contrast to the GOP, are apportioned according to the popular vote in the state presidential preference primary).

It also appears that Texas Gov. George W. Bush is the solid, odds-on favorite to garner all of Missouri's 37 delegates to the 2000 GOP convention. Unlike previous years where the GOP apportioned its delegates, the 2000 race will be winner-take-all. Although there are pockets of grass roots support for Alan Keyes, Steve Forbes, Gary Bauer and John McCain, none can match the fundraising and organizational sophistication of the Bush juggernaut. Bush has secured the strong public backing of Sen. Kit Bond and Reps. Roy Blunt, Jo Ann Emerson and Kenny Hulshof.

Besides the Democrats and Republicans, three minor parties will also appear on Missouris ballot -- the Libertarian party, Reform party and Constitutional party (formerly known as the U.S. Taxpayer party). Although the Ross Perot's Reform party candidacy garnered 21 percent of Missouri's 2,397,270 votes in 1992, it is highly improbable that either of these three parties will make a significant showing in 2000.

Senatorial Politics

The nation's collective eyes will be on Missouri's U.S. Senate race in 2000, a contest between two savvy political heavyweights -- incumbent Republican Sen. John Ashcroft and two-term Democratic Gov. Mel Carnahan.

Ashcroft is completing his first full term in the U.S. Senate after serving two terms as governor of Missouri. Prior to that Ashcroft served two terms as Missouri's attorney general and two years as state auditor. He hails from Springfield, Mo., holds a bachelor's degree from Yale and a law degree from the University of Chicago. Ashcroft has also practiced law and served as a college professor and textbook author. He is actively involved in the Assembly of God Church and has been a leading pro-life advocate. In 1999, Ashcroft briefly tested the presidential waters and was an outspoken critic of President Clinton during the Starr investigation.

Carnahan also has a rich political history. His father, A.S.J. Carnahan, was a Missouri congressman and later a U.S. ambassador to Sierra Leone. Mel Carnahan, whose home is Rolla, Mo., graduated with a bachelor's degree in business administration from George Washington University and earned his law degree from the University of Missouri-Columbia. Carnahan entered public life as a municipal judge, then served in the Missouri House of Representatives, and was elected state treasurer twice. A Catholic, Carnahan has taken a very public pro-choice stance, and has been a strong supporter of President Clinton's policies.

Already, the Missouri Senate race has been rancorous. A number of highly publicized incidents stand out. The first involved Carnahan's commutation of convicted killer Darrell Mease following the Pope's face-to-face appeal during his St. Louis visit in January 1999. Mease had been sentenced to death for the brutal killings of 19-year-old paraplegic and two others during a 1988 shooting in Springfield. Ashcroft's supporters were quick to point out that Carnahan may have violated state law by granting clemency before notifying the victims' families.

Another closely related issue is abortion -- a perennial hot button topic in the Show Me State. Pro-life advocates and Ashcroft's followers have challenged Carnahan to listen to the Pope on the issue of abortion. Carnahan has not. This past year the Missouri General Assembly passed a law that bans so-called partial birth abortions in the state. Carnahan vetoed the bill claiming that it unconstitutional, too sweeping, and could be interpreted to restrict the legitimate rights of women to secure abortions. However, in September Carnahan's veto was overridden with the help of a majority of legislative Democrats. Carnahan became the first Missouri governor since 1980 to have a veto overridden. More importantly, this issue has generated some rifts among Democratic lawmakers, which need to be healed before the 2000 elections.

A third issue involves charges of racism. The incident began in October 1999 when Ashcroft led U.S. senators in quashing President Clinton's nomination of Ronnie White for a federal judgeship in St. Louis. White, a Missouri Supreme Court justice, was appointed by Carnahan and became the first African American to sit on the state's highest court. Ashcroft noted that his opposition to White was based on philosophical reasons, not race. The vote, however, drew cries of racism from Rep. Bill Clay (D-Mo.), Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), and other Carnahan supporters. In response, the Missouri GOP unearthed some 1960 Rolla newspaper photographs showing Carnahan dressed in black face as a participant in Kiwanis minstrel show. The photograph was reprinted statewide, and Carnahan responded by apologizing for "my insensitivity of 39 years ago." Sen. Ashcroft has denied any connection with the photograph release, and both political camps have stated they would like to put this issue to rest.

The most recent brouhaha concerns the accuracy of statements regarding military service. The Carnahan people have criticized Ashcroft for not serving in the military. The record reveals that from 1963 until 1970, Ashcroft received a number of student deferments throughout the Vietnam War. The Ashcroft camp responded that Carnahan had padded his military record. Republicans noted that in the 1993-1998 Official State Manuals, Carnahan's biography read that, "he joined the U.S. Air Force, serving as an agent for the Office of Special Investigation during the Korean War." Republicans noted that the Korean War ended on July 27, 1953, and that Carnahan was not commissioned until October 1954, well after the Korean armistice. Carnahan, however, defended his record and noted that Veterans Administration uses Jan. 31, 1954, as the final day of the Korean War.

Look for this to be a very close race -- a real barn burner. Neither Ashcroft nor Carnahan has faced an opponent as strong as the other. Both are household names in Missouri. Ashcroft is a tenacious campaigner who has always run well statewide. He should do particularly well in Southwest Missouri, St. Louis County, and rural and outstate areas. Carnahan is equally tenacious and has the power of the governorship to back him. His strength will be in St. Louis City and Kansas City. Look for $15 million to be spent on this critical race.