It's Still the
Economy
By Robert Kweit, professor of political science at The University of North
Dakota
 |
North Dakota is a sparsely populated rural state with an aging population and declining population base (although it is technically 54% urban, the largest city is only about seventy thousand). Its economic base is highly dependent on agriculture and energy. It is also dependent on the federal government for transfer payments to farmers and the elderly as well as grants for highways, airports, water projects, etc. and on federal contracting and payroll at two Air Force Bases, in Minot and Grand Forks.
This economic situation forms the basis for the major concerns in the 2000 elections. The most important issue to the state is agriculture. Bad weather, internationally improved production, the passage of the Freedom to Farm Act, and NAFTA, have contributed to the farmers' woes. The number of farmers and the amount of farm income have declined dramatically. The 1996 Freedom to Farm Act eliminated target prices and deficiency payments in exchange for declining payments that will end in 2002. In 1998, a $6.2 billion emergency aid package was passed to deal with short-term needs and another $5.5 billion in emergency aid was included in the 2000 appropriation. These are stopgap measures and reform of the Freedom to Farm Act is high on everyone's political agenda. An unhealthy agricultural picture impacts rural Main Street merchants.
The plight of the farmers has been exacerbated by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). North Dakota farmers believe that NAFTA has negative competitive impact vis-à-vis more heavily subsidized and less regulated Canadian wheat and livestock. The large subsidies of the European Union (EU) have also disadvantaged American exports. Thus, trade policy is another major issue in the upcoming elections.
Energy is a third major concern in North Dakota. The state is blessed with large deposits of oil and lignite coal and also an abundance of farm products that can be used to make ethanol. There is relatively little that U.S. policy can do to affect the price of oil. Environmental issues, however, affect the use of lignite coal. Federal support of coal gasification is an issue. Also, North Dakota's energy abundance has allowed it to be an exporter of electricity. NAFTA and the deregulation of power could have negative impacts on the North Dakota economy and will be a matter of concern.
Water is a major issue in North Dakota. For many years, it has tried to get federal funding to finish the Garrison Diversion project and bring water from the Missouri River into the Red River of the North. The project raises environmental concerns. At times, droughts have racked North Dakota and impacted agriculture negatively. Recently, North Dakota has been plagued by too much water. Devils Lake has risen and has threatened many communities and homes. There are proposals to divert some of the water but there are concerns that it will affect other watersheds and eventually flow into Canada which rejects any such idea. Meanwhile, the Red River valley suffered severe flooding in 1997 and Grand Forks, especially has received major federal dollars for rebuilding and constructing a dike. While it has generated numerous local struggles, it has benefited the North Dakota Congressional delegation, which was so successful in securing funding.
Another issue for 2000 will be the funding and siting of an ABM system. According to ABM treaty with Russia, Grand Forks is the only permissible U.S. site. As of now, there are plans to establish a defensive umbrella in Alaska to protect the entire U.S. Senator Conrad has taken the lead in fighting for a two site system that would include a second site in North Dakota.
A final set of issues revolves around North Dakota's aging population. Certainly, the elderly will be watching the Social Security debate. There are already issue ads focusing on Social Security. Other concerns surround Medicare. The elderly are watching President Clinton's most recent initiative. In addition, federal reimbursements are less to rural health care providers threatening their ability to continue to exist and provide services for the state's elderly population.
The political situation in North Dakota is interesting. The political climate is conservative and favors the Republicans. No Democratic presidential candidate has carried the state since 1964. That said, the state is represented in Washington by two relatively liberal Democratic Senators and a relatively liberal Democratic Representative. Both Senator Conrad and Representative Pomeroy are up for re-election and there has not been a stampede of Republican challengers. Since it is a small state it is harder to avoid meeting politicians than it is to meet them and so politics tends to be personalistic, not ideological. Also, the delegation has been extremely effective in supporting North Dakota interests and bringing federal resources to the state. All of the delegation are extremely popular and won their last elections by wide margins.
At the same time, the Republicans dominate the State Legislature. In the last legislative session, there were 31 Republican Senators and only 18 Democrats. In the House, Republicans held a 64-34 advantage. Republican Governor Ed Schafer will be finishing his second term in 2000 and has recently announced that he will not run. Democratic Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp has announced that she will seek the Gubernatorial nomination. So far State Senate Majority Leader Nelson has announced on the Republican side and Bank of North Dakota President John Hoeven (a former Democrat) is likely to enter the race.
