As Goes Ohio...
By Herb Asher, professor emeritus of political science at Ohio State University
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In the past two presidential elections, the key battleground has been the industrial Great Lakes states of Ohio, Illinois and Michigan. This should hold true again in the 2000 presidential election assuming that the Republican and Democratic nominees have secured their natural bases of support, for the GOP the South and the Plains and Rocky Mountain states and for the Democrats the West Coast, New England and the Middle Atlantic states.
Ohio is likely to respond to national issues similar to other states with a few notable exceptions. One possible area of difference deals with issues of trade and commerce, NAFTA and related matters. Those parts of Ohio, particularly in the northeastern part of the state that have undergone painful economic transformations with the decline of the manufacturing sector, may be more sympathetic to the economic appeals of a populist, anti-NAFTA candidacy of a Pat Buchanan, should he be the Reform Party candidate for President. Should the national and state economies slow down as the election approaches, support for Buchanan could grow.
Ohio will also be electing a United States Senator in 2000. As of today, incumbent republican Senator Mike Dewine is a strong favorite, in part because the Democrats have not yet come up with a strong challenger. This is somewhat surprising since Ohio is considered to be a competitive two-party state and Senator Dewine, while effective in pursuing his objectives, has not been a high-profile Senator. Even with a strong challenger, Dewine would be considered the favorite, in part because of the more centrist record he has established as a Senator.
Little change is expected in the composition of Ohio's U.S. House delegation. The Sixth District has been the most competitive in recent years and is current held by Democrat Ted Strickland. Most observers believe that Strickland has worked effectively to secure the district, although a Republican landslide at the top of the ticket along with a strong GOP challenger could make the district winnable for the Republicans.
