A Democratic Stronghold?
By Professor Elmer Cornwell of Brown University
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Before the Depression, surprisingly, highly industrialized Rhode Island was a solidly Republican State. From the early 1930's on, it has been the quintessential Democratic state. In the seventeen presidential elections from 1932 to date, it gave at least 55% of its vote to the Democratic candidate all but four of those years. Eisenhower carried Rhode Island narrowly in 1952 and then by a solid margin in 1956, Nixon was supported by 53% in 1972 and Reagan with 52% of the vote in 1984.
This presidential voting pattern reflects the large number of persons of immigrant background in the Rhode Island population. This in turn gave the state the highest percentage of Catholic population in the nation. The blue-collar working class population was also very large. The depression energized this potential Democratic voting base.
Since the 1930's the state's representation in the U.S. Senate has overwhelmingly Democratic. The one exception was Republican John Chafee who served from 1976 until his recent death in October 1999. His son Lincoln, four-term mayor of the city of Warick, was appointed to serve until the 2000 election. Since his farther had decided not to seek reelection Lincoln had already announced his candidacy. Also announced candidates are U.S. Rep.Robert Weygand, currently representing the 2nd district and former lieutenant governor Richard Licht, both Democrats. A few others have expressed an interest in running.
The grip of the Democratic Party on the two U.S. House seats has been almost as complete since the 1930's. Two Republicans held one or other seat for a few terms in the 1980's and early 1990's. Currently Patrick Kennedy represents the first district and will doubtless win reelection handily in 2000. He is the son of Massachusetts Senator Edward Kennedy. The current Secretary of State, Democrat James Langevin, is the leading announced candidate to succeed Rep. Weygand.
The General Assembly has been overwhelmingly Democratic since the "one man one vote" court decision in the 1960's. In the 1999 to 2000 term there are 43 Democrats and 7 Republicans in the state Senate, and 86 Democrats and 13 Republicans in the House. (All serve for two-year terms.) Very little change can be anticipated in the near future, in part because from one third to one half of the seats got to the incumbent unchallenged.
The statewide elective offices (governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state and general treasurer) have changed party occupants fairly frequently. This is the result of a Republican tendency to focus most of its effort on the governorship, and to a lesser extent on the executive offices, and for the public to vote more independently at the level on the ticket.
Governor Lincoln Almond, former Republican appointed U.S. Attorney, won office as the first four year term governor in 1994 and was reelected in 1998. (The newly adopted four year term applies to all the general officers chosen state wide, and carries a two term limit.) Republicans have been elected in recent years to each of the other executive offices occasionally. As of the 1998 election, however, all are held by Democrats.
As the foregoing indicates, the political season leading up to the 2000 election has already begun in Rhode Island. Officially it will be launched with the presidential primary on March 7th, 2000. The state's limited size and allotment of only four electoral votes, plus the fact that its consistent preference is for Democratic presidential candidates tend to limit the interest of White House aspirants in the state.
The Rhode Island presidential primary is designed to allow party voters to signify their preference for a particular presidential candidate, and also vote for candidates as national convention delegates. All such persons are listed on the ballot either as committed to a named presidential candidate, or as uncommitted. The number of delegates allocated to Rhode Island by each national party will be apportioned to the state's two Congressional districts and elected from those districts.
As to issues that might affect the national election, the strong Democratic tradition Rhode Island will doubtless be the overriding factor shaping attitudes and choices. No statewide elections will be held since the general officers are in the middle of their four year terms. Only General Assembly and local elections will take place. And former are largely party contests where there is candidate choice.
In the Congressional contest, the filling of Chafee seat will be the focus of attention. There party loyalties will compete with the incumbent advantage and name familiarity enjoyed by Lincoln Chafee. In the House contest, Kennedy clearly has a lock on the first district. Democratic Secretary of State Langevin has announced for the second district to replace Weygand. Others on both sides have expressed interest including a prominent labor leader. Langevin with his strong vote getting is the one to beat.
Issues beyond party and candidate loyalty may well be those of special interest to the large senior citizen and low-income segments of the population. Medical care may figure prominently given the impending collapse of Rhode Island branch of Harvard Pilgrim Health care with thousands of members in the state. The relative prosperity and high levels of employment will provide the background for the election, though with what significant impact it is hard to say at this point.
