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>> THANK YOU, BIANNA.
AND ROBERT KAING, WELCOME TO THE SHOW.
>> THANK YOU.
>> THIS WAR IN IRAN HAS GONE ON FOR FOUR MONTHS NOW.
DOES IT SURPRISE YOU IT'S GONE ON FOR THAT LONG?
>> WELL, IN SOME WAYS IT HASN'T GONE ON THAT LONG.
IN SOME RESPECTS THE WAR ENDED IN MARCH AFTER THE ISRAELIS HIT THE IRANIAN OIL FIELD AND THE IRANIANS RETALIATE BID HITTING THE QATARI GAS INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX.
TRUMP ORDERED AN END TO ATTACKS ON IRANIAN ENERGY FACILITIES AND THEN WENT INTO A CEASE- FIRE.
AND REALLY NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE THEN.
TRUMP SAYS A MILLION THINGS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER HE'S GOING TO ATTACK, HE'S NOT GOING TO ATTACK, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED IT'S CLEAR THAT TRUMP IS UNWILLING TO ESCALATE.
AND SO WE'VE BEEN IN THIS KIND OF SORT OF COLD WAR SITUATION WITH NOTHING REALLY HAPPENING FOR FOUR MONTHS OTHER THAN THE FACT THAT THE STRAIT HAS BEEN CLOSED.
>> WELL, OTHER THAN THE FACT THE STRAIT HAS BEEN CLOSED IS A PRETTY BIG OTHER THING.
WHAT HAPPENS THERE?
>> WELL, WE CAN CLEARLY SEE NOW WHAT THE FUTURE LOOKS LIKE.
IRAN IS IN CONTROL OF THE STRAIT.
THERE SEEMS TO BE NO PROSPECT THE UNITED STATES IS GOING TO BE ABLE TO OPEN THE STRAIT BY MILITARY FORCE.
TRUMP CLEARLY DOESN'T WANT TO DO THAT.
WHICH MEANS THE STRAIT WILL BE OPEN BUT UNDER NEW MANAGEMENT, IT WILL BE UNDER IRANIAN MANAGEMENT, WHICH MEANS THEY CONTROL WHO GETS IN AND WHO GETS OUT, HOW QUICKLY AND AT WHAT PRICE BECAUSE THEY'RE CERTAINLY GOING TO CHARGE FOR IT EVENTUALLY.
AND THIS GIVES IRAN ENORMOUS LEVERAGE IN THE REGION AND IN THE WORLD.
AND WE'RE ALREADY SEEING THAT LEVERAGE PLAYING OUT TODAY WITH THE CRISIS IN LEBANON AND HOW TRUMP IS HANDLING THAT.
>> SO WHAT SHOULD THE ADMINISTRATION DO OR WHAT CAN IT DO?
BECAUSE THIS SEEMED LIKE A PRETTY BAD STALEMATE OF AN OUTCOME.
>> I DON'T SEE ANY PARTICULAR OPTIONS.
I THINK WE HAVE ALREADY LOST THIS WAR.
IT'S JUST A QUESTION OF WHEN DO WE ACKNOWLEDGE IT?
TRUMP OF COURSE DOESN'T WANT TO ACKNOWLEDGE IT AT ALL, WHICH IS WHY WE'RE SORT OF IN THIS STASIS, SORT OF PARALYSIS RIGHT NOW.
BUT I DON'T SEE ANY OPTIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES.
THIS MISTAKE UNFORTUNATELY IS GOING TO BE A LASTING MISTAKE WITH LASTING STRATEGIC CONSEQUENCES.
>> IF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS OPEN SORT OF UNDER NEW MANAGEMENT I THINK YOU PUT IT WITH IRAN SORT OF CONTROLLING IT, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
>> WELL, IT MEANS THAT THE POWER RELATIONSHIP IN THE REGION WILL SHIFT DRAMATICALLY.
I MEAN, BEFORE THE WAR BEGAN ISRAEL WAS BY FAR THE STRONGEST POWER IN THE REGION.
IRAN WAS DECIMATED, WEAK, ISOLATED.
AFTER THE WAR, WITH IRAN IN CONTROL OF THE STRAIT, IRAN IS GOING TO BE CALLING THE SHOTS.
YOU'LL SEE THE GULF STATES CUTTING DEALS WITH IRAN.
THEY'VE ALREADY BEGUN TO DO SO.
AND YOU'LL SEE IRAN EXERCISING INFLUENCE OVER ISRAEL'S BEHAVIOR AS IT IS DOING RIGHT NOW IN LEBANON.
IRAN WANTED AN END TO ISRAEL'S BOMBING OF BEIRUT.
THEY DEMANDED IT.
AND TRUMP CALLED UP BIBI NETANYAHU AND TOLD HIM TO CUT IT OUT.
THAT'S THE FUTURE.
ISRAEL'S GOING TO FIND ITSELF TREMENDOUSLY ISOLATED.
IRAN IS GOING TO BE IN THE POSITION TO HAVE LEVERAGE OVER COUNTRIES AS FAR AWAY AS JAPAN AND KOREA, WHO ARE OF COURSE UTTERLY DEPENDENT ON ACCESS TO THE ENERGY SUPPLIES TO THE GULF, WHICH IRAN WILL BE ABLE TO CONTROL THAT ACCESS.
>> LET ME SUMMARIZE WHAT I THINK YOU JUST SAID ABOUT WHERE WE STAND NOW IS THAT IRAN WILL EFFECTIVELY CONTROL THE STRAIT, ENRICHED URANIUM I ASSUME WILL NOT BE TAKEN OUT.
THEY WILL HELP CONTROL OF WHAT ISRAEL CAN DO IN SOUTHERN LEBANON.
AND THERE'S NOT BEEN A REGIME CHANGE EXCEPT TO A YOUNGER MORE RADICAL REGIME.
THAT SEEMS ABSOLUTELY UNACCEPTABLE.
IS THERE ANY ALTERNATIVE?
IS THERE ANYTHING THAT CAN BE DONE?
>> UNFORTUNATELY JUST BECAUSE SOMETHING IS UNACCEPTABLE DOESN'T MEAN THAT WE'RE NOT GOING TO HAVE TO ACCEPT IT.
AND AGAIN, LOOK, I SUPPOSE THERE IS SOME KIND OF WAR THAT THE UNITED STATES COULD FIGHT WHICH WOULD BE A MULTIMONTH WAR AT THE VERY LEAST, IT WOULD REQUIRE RISKING LOSING SHIPS IN THE STRAIT, WHEN YOU CONVOY IN A CONTESTED AREA YOU LOSE SHIPS.
IN ADDITION TO WHICH I DON'T THINK THE STRAIT WILL BE SAFE AGAIN AS LONG AS THIS REGIME IS IN POWER.
AND SO IF YOU REALLY WANTED TO I SUPPOSE SOLVE THE PROBLEM ALTHOUGH I'M NOT SURE WHAT KIND OF SOLUTION IT IS, YOU'D HAVE TO INVADE AND OCCUPY IRAN AND STAY THERE FOR A LONG TIME SO THAT YOU HAD A NEW REGIME.
AND I JUST THINK THERE'S NO WAY THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE INTERESTED IN DOING THAT AND I'M NOT EVEN SURE I'D RECOMMEND DOING THAT AT THIS POINT BECAUSE THE COSTS ARE GOING TO BE ENORMOUS.
WE HAVE TO ACCEPT THE FACT THAT THIS IS A LOSS.
WE'VE LOST IN THE PAST.
WE'VE LOST PREVIOUS WARS.
IN VIETNAM, OBVIOUSLY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS ONE AS MUCH AS WE'VE BEEN DISCUSSING, MUCH GREATER STRATEGIC RAMIFICATIONS THAN THE LOSS IN VIETNAM DID, ACTUALLY.
>> WELL, IF YOU'RE TRUMP AND YOU HEAR WHAT YOU JUST SAID, I THINK HIS INSTINCT --IT'S VERY HARD FOR ME TO KNOW --WOULD BE LET'S BOMB, LET'S HIT MORE TARGETS, LET'S DESTROY EVEN SOME INFRASTRUCTURE UNTIL THEY RELENT.
IS THAT A POSSIBLE APPROACH?
>> IT REALLY ISN'T.
AND I DON'T THINK HE --THAT'S NOT WHAT I'M GUESSING HE'S GOING TO DO.
WHAT HE WOULD LIKE TO DO IS HOPE THAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE SOMEHOW CAN FORGET ABOUT ALL OF THIS.
HE'S TELLING --YOU KNOW, HIS LATEST STATEMENTS ARE RELAX, IT'S GOING TO TAKE TIME, IT ALWAYS WORKS OUT, HE SAYS.
AND I THINK HE WOULD LIKE TO CHANGE THE SUBJECT.
AND MOVE ON.
EVEN AN INCREASED BOMBING CAMPAIGN IS NOT GOING TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM.
WE BOMBED IRAN VERY EFFECTIVELY, IT SEEMED, FOR 37 DAYS WITHOUT CHANGING THEIR COURSE.
I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE OCCASIONAL TIT FOR TAT BOMBING IS GOING TO ACCOMPLISH.
IN ADDITION TO WHICH WE CANNOT SOLVE THE PROBLEM, WHICH IS AT THE HEART OF THIS, THAT WE CANNOT PREVENT IRAN FROM WREAKING UNTOLD DESTRUCTION ON ITS NEIGHBORS IN THE GULF AND ALSO, AND PERHAPS FROM THE WORLD'S POINT OF VIEW JUST AS IMPORTANTLY THE ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.
SIRN CAPABLE OF DESTROYING INFRASTRUCTURE IN SUCH A WAY THAT IT COULD TAKE YEARS IF NOT LONGER, MAYBE EVEN A DECADE TO REPAIR, WHICH WOULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY THAT ARE DISASTROUS.
>> HOW COME NOBODY COULD FORESEE, OR THEY DID NOT FORESEE THAT THIS COULD BE A TOTAL FIASCO THE WAY YOU'VE JUST DESCRIBED IT?
>> WELL, I THINK THAT IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN FORESEEN.
AFTER ALL, TRUMP IS NOT THE FIRST PRESIDENT TO FACE THE IRAN PROBLEM.
AND HE'S CERTAINLY NOT THE FIRST SORT OF HAWKISH AMERICAN PRESIDENT TO FACE THE IRAN PROBLEM.
BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE DECISIONS MADE BY THE TWO BUSH ADMINISTRATIONS AND ALL THE OTHER DEMOCRATIC ADMINISTRATIONS, THEY ALL DECIDED THAT THIS WAS A THREAT.
I'M SURE THAT TRUMP'S MILITARY ADVISERSIZE AND MAYBE THE CIA WARNED HIM THAT THIS COULD HAPPEN.
THEY WOULD BE REMISS IN THEIR JOBS IF THEY DIDN'T.
BUT HE DIDN'T LISTEN BECAUSE HE'S DONALD TRUMP.
HE SAW A GLITTERING OBJECT BIBI NETANYAHU PRESENTED WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A BIG WIN AND HE WILL GO DOWN IN HISTORY AND HAVE HIS HEAD ON MOUNT RUSHMORE FOR GETTING RID OF THE AYATOLLAH AND THE IRANIAN REGIME AND HE DIDN'T THINK TOO MUCH ABOUT DAY TWO OBVIOUSLY.
>> WELL, YOU SAID IT WAS AN OPPORTUNITY THAT PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU PRESENTED TO HIM.
TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK THAT NETANYAHU PUSHED HIM INTO THIS?
>> I DON'T KNOW HOW HARD HE HAD TO PUSH.
BUT HE CERTAINLY ENTICED HIM INTO THIS.
IT'S CLEAR THAT HE CAME TO THE WHITE HOUSE AND RECOMMENDED THIS PLAN.
I MEAN, REPORTS ARE THAT PEOPLE LIKE RUBIO AND THE CIA DIRECTOR SAID THEY DIDN'T THINK THIS WAS GOING TO WORK AND TRUMP DID IT ANYWAY.
BUT IT'S CLEAR THAT THIS WAS AN ISRAELI IDEA, WHICH I'VE GOT TO SAY THE TRAGIC IRONY FROM ISRAEL'S POINT OF VIEW IS THAT I THINK THIS IS GOING TO TURN OUT TO BE THE BIGGEST SETBACK IN ISRAELIS' --BIGGEST STRATEGIC SETBACK IN ISRAELI HISTORY.
AND IT WAS DEFINITELY AN ISRAELI DECISION TO GO AHEAD AND DO IT.
>> YEAH, YOU TALK ABOUT IN YOUR PIECE THAT THIS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STRATEGIC SETBACK IN ISRAEL'S ENTIRE HISTORY.
EXPLAIN WHY.
>> WELL, JUST BECAUSE ISRAEL'S ARCH- ENEMY, WHAT ISRAEL CONSIDERS AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT, IS NOW IN A STRONGER POSITION THAN IT'S EVER BEEN BEFORE BECAUSE AS WE'VE BEEN DISCUSSING, BECAUSE OF ITS CONTROL OF THE STRAIT.
WHICH MEANS IT'S GOING TO BE ABLE TO MANIPULATE OTHER POWERS AROUND THE WORLD IN WAYS THAT IT WANTS.
SO IF ISRAEL DOES ANYTHING THAT IRAN DOESN'T LIKE IRAN CAN FORCE THE REST OF THE WORLD TO PUT PRESSURE ON ISRAEL.
AS AGAIN IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW RIGHT BEFORE OUR EYES.
THIS IS THE FUTURE.
SO ISRAEL'S GOING TO BE HIGHLY CONSTRAINED ON WHAT IT CAN DO AGAINST HEZBOLLAH AND HAMAS IN GAZA BECAUSE IRAN WILL BE ABLE TO PULL THE STRING ON OIL AND GAS SUPPLIES IF ISRAEL DOES SOMETHING IT DOESN'T LIKE.
THAT'S A VERY WEAK POSITION.
PLUS ISRAEL IS NOW GOING TO BE MORE ISOLATED THAN IT'S EVER BEEN BEFORE BECAUSE IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE WHOLE WORLD IS NOW - -YOU LOOK AT THE U. N. SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION YESTERDAY, IT WAS UNANIMOUS EXCEPT FOR THE UNITED STATES, AND SUPPORT IN THE UNITED STATES FOR ISRAEL IS AT THE LOWEST POINT I THINK PROBABLY IN ITS HISTORY.
NEITHER PARTY IS VERY PRO ISRAEL.
AND TRUMP --AND THIS IS IMPORTANT.
TRUMP IS NOW TURNING AGAINST ISRAEL.
HE MAY TURN HIS MAGA FOLLOWERS AGAINST ISRAEL TOO.
ANYONE WHO ASSUMES THAT MAGA IS DIEHARD SUPPORTERS OF ISRAEL AND CAN'T BE SHIFTED, IF TRUMP GETS ANNOYED WITH NETANYAHU, ARE MISTAKEN.
I JUST THINK ISRAEL'S GOING TO FIND ITSELF IN A VERY ISOLATED --ISRAEL'S USED TO BEING SOMEWHAT ISOLATED.
THIS IS MORE ISOLATED BECAUSE I DON'T THINK THEY HAVE THE UNITED STATES BEHIND THEIR BACK ANYMORE.
>> YOU PAINT A PRETTY DIRE -- VERY DIRE PICTURE OF WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE UNITED STATES' STRATEGIC INTERESTS AND ISRAEL'S.
IT ALSO SEEMS LIKE IT'S PRETTY DEVASTATING TO THE ATEGIC INTERESTS OF THE GULF STATES, THE SAUDIS, UAE AND OTHERS.
ARE THOUGH GOING TO JUST SIT BACK AND WATCH THIS HAPPEN?
>> WELL, THEY --WHAT THEIR RESPONSE IS GOING TO BE, THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO CUT DEALS WITH IRAN.
SOME OF THEM ARE ALREADY DOING IT.
OMAN IS WORKING WITH IRAN.
I SAW THE QATARI FOREIGN MINISTER TALKED ABOUT MAKING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY DEAL WITH IRAN.
THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO COME AROUND.
I DON'T KNOW.
THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES SEEMS TO BE STILL SORT OF IN THE ISRAELI CAMP.
I DON'T KNOW HOW LONG THAT WILL LAST.
BUT THE OTHERS ARE NOT.
AND IT WAS PRETTY CLEAR AT LEAST FROM WHAT WE PICKED UP THAT THE SAUDIS IN PARTICULAR WERE NOT IN FAVOR OF THIS WAR.
THEY COULD SEE VERY CLEARLY OVER THE COURSE OF THE WAR THAT THE UNITED STATES PRIORITIZED ISRAEL'S DEFENSE OVER THE GULF STATES' DEFENSE.
I MEAN, LOOK, IF YOU'RE THE GULF STATES NOW YOU PUT ALL YOUR MONEY ON THE UNITED STATES.
THE UNITED STATES THEN INITIATED THIS WAR AT ISRAEL'S BEHEST AND THE WAR HAS BEEN DISASTROUS FOR THE GULF STATES.
DISASTROUS FOR THEIR ECONOMIES.
I DON'T SEE WHY THEY DON'T REACT TO THAT BY TURNING BOTH TO IRAN BUT ALSO TO CHINA, WHICH IS AN IMPORTANT PLAYER, AN INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT PLAYER IN THE REGION PARTLY BECAUSE OF ITS ALLIANCE WITH IRAN.
AND SO YOU'RE GOING TO SEE AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE BALANCE OF POWER AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES AND ISRAEL AND TOWARD OTHER POWERS IN THE REGION.
>> THERE'S ONE THING I DON'T GET ABOUT THIS REALLY DIRE SCENARIO YOU'VE JUST PAINTED, WHICH IS IF THIS IS THE CASE WHY IS OIL SO CHEAP IN A WAY?
WHY ISN'T IT AT $150 A BARREL?
>> WELL, I'M NOT AN ENERGY EXPERT.
BUT I UNDERSTAND THAT IF YOU ACTUALLY NEEDED TO BUY --IF YOU NEEDED TO BUY A BARREL OF OIL TODAY IT COSTS SOMETHING LIKE $150 OR $140 BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT THE ACTUAL PRICE OF OIL IS.
THE OIL PRICES WE'RE LOOKING AT ARE OIL FUTURES.
AND I'LL TELL YOU ONE THING THAT DONALD TRUMP HAS BEEN AN ABSOLUTE GENIUS AT, AND HE GETS AN A-PLUS FOR IT, IS MANIPULATING THE MARKET AND MANIPULATING MARKET EXPECTATIONS.
AND WATCHING OIL FUTURE PRICES GO UP AND DOWN BASED ON WHETHER DONALD TRUMP SAYS THERE'S GOING TO BE AN AGREEMENT OR NOT HAS BEEN PRETTY AMUSING BECAUSE DONALD TRUMP HAS NOW PULLED THE LUCY AND CHARLIE BROWN FOOTBALL TRICK NOW ABOUT SEVEN TIMES.
THE MARKET GOES FOR IT EVERY SINGLE TIME.
SO THESE PRICES ARE NOT REFLECTIVE OF THE REALITY.
AND NOW YOU EVEN SEE MAJOR FIGURES LIKE EXXON TOP EXECUTIVES WARNING THAT THE INVENTORY LEVELS, THE WORLD OIL INVENTORY LEVELS, WHICH HAVE BEEN BASICALLY KEEPING SUPPLY GOING, THERE WAS A LOT OF OIL OUT THERE IN THE SYSTEM AND THEY WERE OF COURSE THE STRATEGIC OIL RESERVES OF VARIOUS COUNTRIES INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES, WHICH HAVE BEEN DRAWN DOWN HEAVILY.
I THINK JAPAN IS DRAWN DOWN AS FAR AS IT'S EVER BEEN.
AND WHAT THE EPIJI EXPERTS ARE WARNING IS WE'RE GOING TO HIT A POINT IN THE NEXT TWO OR THREE WEEKS WHERE THE INVENTORY IS REALLY GONE AND THAT'S THE POINT AT WHICH THEY'RE ANTICIPATING OIL PRICE SHOCKS.
SOME PEOPLE SAY $150.
SOME PEOPLE SAY $200 A BARREL.
AND WE'RE DEFINITELY TALKING IN ANY CASE ABOUT GAS PRICES IN THE UNITED STATES POTENTIALLY HITTING $6 A GALLON.
>> BUT ISN'T THAT WHAT THE FUTURE PRICE IS SUPPOSED TO REFLECT, WHAT PEOPLE THINK WILL BE HAPPENING A MONTH AND TWO MONTHS FROM NOW?
>> YES.
AND PEOPLE ARE MISTAKEN, UNFORTUNATELY.
I THINK PEOPLE ARE HAVING A VERY HARD TIME IMAGINING THE OUTCOME THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT HERE, WHICH IS WHERE THE UNITED STATES HAS JUST LOST.
AMERICANS --THERE'S A GREAT ASSUMPTION, I DON'T KNOW, IF YOU WATCH FOX NEWS AND YOU LISTEN TO A LOT OF TRUMP SUPPORTERS YOU'D THINK WE WERE WINNING THIS THING, WE'VE GOT IRAN ON THE RUN, IT'S JUST A MATTER OF TIME, WE'RE SQUEEZING THEM TO DEATH, WE'RE SUCH A BIG POWERFUL COUNTRY, AND THE ANSWER OF COURSE IS THE OPPOSITE.
BUT PEOPLE CAN'T IMAGINE A SITUATION WHERE WE'VE REALLY LOST CONTROL OF THE SITUATION AND THEREFORE ARE NOT GOING TO HAVE THE KIND OF AGREEMENT.
EVERYBODY'S ASSUMING THAT IT WILL GET BACK TO THE STATUS QUO AND THAT THE STRAIT WILL BE OPEN, LITERALLY OPEN.
BUT AS WE'VE BEEN SAYING, IT'S GOING TO BE OPEN BUT OPEN UNDER IRANIAN CONTROL, AND THAT'S GOING TO BE A DIFFERENT KETTLE OF FISH.
>> THE MAIN REASON WE GOT INTO THIS SITUATION AT FIRST, OR SO THEY SAID, WAS TO STOP IRAN FROM BECOMING A NUCLEAR POWER AND MAYBE EVEN GET THE ENRICHED URANIUM OUT.
NOW WE'RE JUST TALKING ABOUT CAN WE TRY TO GET THE STRAIT OPEN.
IS THAT --IS IRAN GOING TO BECOME A NUCLEAR POWER NOW?
>> WELL, FIRST OF ALL, IT'S LESS IMPORTANT NOW WHETHER THEY DO OR THEY DON'T BECAUSE THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS OF LESS UTILITY TO THEM AS A LEVER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM THAN CONTROL OF THE STRAIT.
THE CONTROL OF THE STRAIT IS LIKE A --IS GREATER THAN A NUCLEAR WEAPON.
BUT ON THE OTHER HAND THEY ALSO HAVE NO INCENTIVE TO MAKE ANY CONCESSIONS ON THE NUCLEAR ISSUE.
NOW, YOU KNOW, THEY HAVE BEENING A FOR DECADES THAT THEY HAVE NO INTENTION OF BUILDING A NUCLEAR WEAPON.
SO I'M WONDERING WHETHER DONALD TRUMP COULD HAVE THEM SAY THAT YET AGAIN AND THEN DECLARE VICTORY AND GO HOME.
HE'S GOT TO FIND SOME WAY TO DECLARE VICTORY.
SO IT'S POSSIBLE THEY'LL GIVE HIM THAT.
BUT THE REALITY IS IRAN IS NOT GOING TO MAKE ANY FUNDAMENTAL CONCESSIONS ON THE URANIUM OR ON ANYTHING ELSE.
>> LET ME ASK YOU THE BIG STRATEGIC QUESTION, WHICH IS WHAT DOES THIS DO TO AMERICA'S ALLIANCES AROUND THE WORLD AND TO WHAT EXTENT DOES THAT AFFECT OUR COMPETITION I'LL CALL IT WITH CHINA?
>> AND WITH RUSSIA I WOULD SAY.
THE WAR ITSELF TAKES PLACE ALREADY IN A CONTEXT OF THE UNITED STATES DESTROYING OUR ALLIANCE RELATIONSHIPS.
WE'RE PULLING OUR TROOPS OUT OF EUROPE.
WE'VE MADE IT CLEAR THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PROVIDING SECURITY TO OUR ALLIES, WHICH HAS BEEN OUR MAIN MISSION FOR 80 YEARS.
SO THOSE ALLIANCES ARE FALLING DOWN.
AND IN ASIA TOO, WHERE WE HAVEN'T PULLED OUT, WE HAVE OVER THE COURSE OF THIS WAR DRAWN DOWN HUGE AMOUNTS OF MILITARY CAPABILITY WHICH ARE INTENDED TO DEAL WITH THE CHINA- TAIWAN SCENARIO OR ANOTHER KIND OF ASIAN SCENARIO.
SO EVERYBODY CAN SEE HOW WEAKENED WE ARE.
WHICH MEANS THAT COUNTRIES LIKE JAPAN ARE GOING TO HAVE TO GO THEIR OWN WAY.
ALL THAT WAS SORT OF IN PLACE.
THE IRAN WAR HAS EXACERBATED ALL OF THAT BECAUSE IN ADDITION TO US MAKING IT CLEAR WE'RE NOT GOING TO DEFEND OUR ALLIES, WE ALSO ARE NOT CAPABLE OF PLAYING THE ROLE THAT WE'VE PLAYED FOR 80 YEARS IN KEEPING, YOU KNOW, INTERNATIONAL WATERWAYS OPEN.
THAT WAS A MAJOR AMERICAN TASK.
IT'S ONE REASON WHY NATIONS IN THE WORLD DEPENDED ON US.
AND THEREFORE LISTENED TO US.
WE ALWAYS ARE UNHAPPY ABOUT THE DEGREE TO WHICH NATIONS DEPEND ON US.
BUT IT ALSO GIVES US ENORMOUS INFLUENCE.
THAT INFLUENCE IS GOING TO BE GONE AS NATIONS GO THEIR OWN WAY, AS WE PROVE WE ARE INCAPABLE OF FINISHING A WAR WE STARTED, AS WE PROVE WE ARE INCAPABLE OF DEALING WITH, BY THE WAY, A PRETTY LESSER POWER THAT WAS ALREADY VERY WEAK.
AGAIN, A LOT OF SORT OF --OF WAR BOOSTERS ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE WERE BRAGGING ABOUT HOW MUCH DAMAGE WE'VE DONE AND HOW CHINA AND RUSSIA ARE GOING TO BE SCARED OF US.
I'M SORRY, THAT IS NOT THE LESSON OF THIS WAR.
THE LESSON OF THIS WAR IS THAT WE TOOK ON A VERY WEAK AND DAMAGED POWER AND HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO COMPLETE THE JOB.
I THINK THE WORLD IS GOING TO SEE WHAT THAT MEANS.
>> ROBERT KAGAN, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.
>> THANK YOU.