What Is Behind the Political Shift Reshaping Germany?

> >> HUMANITARIAN GROUPS GRAPPLED WITH FALLING AID, AND A NEW THREAT TO GLOBAL INSTITUTIONS IS RISING IN EUROPE.

THE FAR RIGHT, ALTERNATIVE FOR JOURNEY --GERMANY PARTY MADE UNPRECEDENTED GAINS IN ELECTIONS TAPPING INTO DISCONTENT OVER MIGRATION AND THE ECONOMY AMONGST OTHER THINGS.

AUTHOR AND POLITICAL SCIENTIST, IVAN KRASTEV HAS STUDIED THE TENSE POLITICAL CLIMATE IN HIS BOOKS LIKE AFTER EUROPE, AND THE LIGHT THAT FAILED.

HE TALKS TO WALTER ISAACSON ABOUT FAR RIGHT AND FAR LEFT PARTIES THAT THREATENED EUROPE'S ESTABLISHMENT.

>> THANK YOU, IVAN KRASTEV, WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

>> THANK YOU FOR THE INVITATION.

>> WE'VE SEEN SOME AMAZING THINGS HAPPEN IN GERMANY INCLUDING THE PARTY KNOWN AS ALTERNATIVE GERMANY, AFD PARTY, DOING EXTRAORDINARILY WELL IN THE ELECTION.

LET'S START BY EXPLAINING WHAT IS THAT PARTY, WHAT DOES IT STAND FOR?

>> INTERESTINGLY, IT STARTED AS A PARTY WHICH WAS VERY MUCH KIND OF SKEPTICAL TO THE WAY THE EUROPEAN UNION WAS DOING, IT WAS STARTED BY SOME PROFESSORS OF ECONOMICS AND IT STARTED AS A WEST GERMAN PARTY.

BUT THEN OVER THE TIME BASICALLY, PARTICULARLY AFTER THE IMMIGRATION CRISIS OF 2015, THREE THINGS HAPPENED IN THE WAY THE PARTY LOOKS NOW.

BEFORE IT WAS A PROFESSORS PARTY, NOW, THIS IS A PARTY WHICH WAS VERY MUCH FOCUSING ON THE PROBLEM OF MIGRATIONS, IT'S NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM MANY OF THE FAR RIGHT PARTIES IN EUROPE.

SECONDLY, IT IS OVERREPRESENTED IN GERMANY.

THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE GERMANY IS PART OF GERMANY WHERE THERE ARE REFUGEES AND MIGRANTS.

>> SO HOW IMPORTANT IS THIS MIGRANT CRISIS AND WHAT ANGELA MERKEL DID TO THE RISE OF THE PARTY?

>> IT WAS IMPORTANT, AND THIS IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND PARTICULARLY THE EASTERN PART OF IT BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE GOING TO ASK THE QUESTION, WHY PEOPLE ARE PROTESTING SO MUCH WHILE THEY ARE IN THEIR OWN REGION THERE WEREN'T MANY MIGRANTS BUT THERE WERE NOT MANY MIGRANTS IN EAST GERMANY BUT SINCE 1989, AROUND 25% OF BASICALLY PEOPLE LIVING IN THIS REGION OF GERMANY THAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT IN WHICH I'M TALKING ABOUT, 44% LAST WEEK BASICALLY THEY HAVE BEEN LIVING HERE.

SO MIGRATION WAS NOT SO MUCH ABOUT THE FEAR THOSE WERE COMING IT WAS THE TRAUMA OF THOSE WHO HAVE LEFT.

AND I DO BELIEVE THIS WAS THE PART OF THE STORY THAT PEOPLE QUITE OFTEN DON'T UNDERSTAND.

IT WAS ALSO ABOUT THE VERY AGING POPULATION, DEMOCRACY, AND IMPORTANTLY, PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN GERMANY, REJECTIONS AND REBELLION OVER -- IT'S SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT, BUT AT THIS MOMENT, MIGRATION IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR BOTH OF THEM AND SECOND, WHEN IT COMES TO FOREIGN POLICY, THAT IS THE PARTY THAT VERY STRONGLY ATTACKS THE GERMAN CONSENSUS ON THE WAR IN UKRAINE BASICALLY THEY SAID WE SHOULD NOT SUPPORT UKRAINE AND WE SHOULD TAKE CARE OF OURSELVES IS MUCH MORE FRIENDLY TO RUSSIA THAN ANY OTHER PARTIES IN THE GERMAN POLITICAL SYSTEM.

>> THERE'S ANOTHER FAR LEFT PARTY, WHICH IS ALSO DOING QUITE WELL , IS THAT RIGHT, AND IS THAT FUELED BY SOME OF THE SAME RESENTMENTS?

>> YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT THE PARTY WAS THE BIGGEST PARTY ON THE ELECTIONS AND THIS IS QUITE IMPORTANT BECAUSE THIS IS ALSO A PARTY THAT CHANGED VERY MUCH ITSELF.

IT STARTED, THIS WAS THE PARTY OF EAST GERMANY AND IT WAS ALL ABOUT THE NOSTALGIA OF GERMANY BECAUSE DON'T FORGET, GERMANY WAS A PARTICULAR IDENTITY.

IT WAS NOT SO MUCH ABOUT THE OLD SYSTEM BUT WE WERE DIFFERENT, WE ALSO HAVE OUR SUCCESSES AND NOW WE ARE TREATED AS SECOND-CLASS CITIZENS BUT NOW, THE LEFT PARTY IS VERY MUCH ALSO THE PARTY IN WHICH YOU'RE GOING TO SEE A VERY STRONG PROTEST AGAINST ECONOMIC POLICIES PARTICULARLY IN BERLIN.

IT WAS VERY MUCH FOCUSING ON HOUSING.

IT'S VERY MUCH SUPPORTED BY YOUNG PEOPLE.

IT'S VERY MUCH SUPPORTED BY MIGRANTS, SO, FROM THIS POINT OF VIEW, , IT'S VERY DIFFERENT WHEN IT COMES TO MIGRATION BUT WHAT IS INTERESTING, WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE RESULT IS THAT BOTH CENTERLEFT AND CENTER RIGHT, BASICALLY HAVE MAJOR POLITICAL SUFFERINGS .

CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THEIR HISTORY ARE GOING TO ENTER THE REGION.

IT'S NOT SIMPLY THAT THESE TWO PARTIES DISAGREE ON MOST THINGS.

BUT THERE'S ONE THING ON WHICH THEY AGREE AND THIS IS VERY MUCH AN ATTACK ON THE MAINSTREAM POLITICAL PARTIES, BASICALLY THEY TRIED TO REDEFINE WHAT IS WHAT IS LEFT AND WHAT IS RIGHT?

>> THIS IS WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE UNITED STATES BUT WE SEE THAT A DEMOCRATIC SOCIALIST CAN BE DOING VERY WELL, THE POPULIST NATIONALIST CAN DO WELL AND PEOPLE LIKE STEVE BANNON ARE BRIDGING EVERYTHING.

IS THERE SOME MORE IN COMMON BETWEEN WHAT WE CALL THE FAR LEFT AND FAR RIGHT THEN PEOPLE THINK?

>> LISTEN, MOST OF WHAT IS COMMON, FOR THEM, IT'S THAT THEY DON'T ACCEPT THE POLITICAL SYSTEM AND THE WAY IT IS.

ONE OF THE MAJOR STORIES THAT PARTICULARLY THE GERMAN POLITICAL SYSTEM , IT WAS VERY STABLE, PREDICTABLE, ECONOMICALLY SUCCESSFUL SO FOR VERY LONG PERIODS OF TIME, IT WAS DELIVERING ECONOMIC RESULTS BUT ALSO POLITICAL AND SOCIAL STABILITY.

AND THEN COMES THE CHANGES.

ECONOMICALLY AS YOU ALL KNOW, GERMANY IS UNDER MAJOR PRESSURE.

IT'S MAJOR PRESSURE BECAUSE BASICALLY CHINA, IT'S STARTING TO DESTROY THE GERMAN INDUSTRY, SO FROM THIS POINT GERMANY IS SEEING THINGS THAT WAS COMMON IN THE UNITED STATES, GERMAN CAR COMPANIES, CUTTING 50,000 PEOPLE, 100,000 PEOPLE.

SO THERE IS AN ECONOMIC ISSUE.

SECOND WE SEE AN AGING POPULATION .

CERTAINLY, THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND, BOTH FAR LEFT AND FAR RIGHT ARE VERY WELL REPRESENTED AMONG THE YOUNGEST POPULATIONS.

IF YOU ARE GOING TO SEE, YOU SEE THAT WHEN IT COMES TO PEOPLE WHO ARE YOUNGER THAN 25, THERE'S ONE IMPORTANT THING IN GERMAN POLITICS WHICH MAKES IT DIFFERENT FROM THE UNITED STATES.

GERMAN POLITICS WAS ALSO VERY MUCH BASED ON A CERTAIN TYPE OF IDEA OF NEVER AGAIN, WE SHOULD NOT GO BACK TO WHAT HAPPENED.

THERE WAS THIS TOTAL FOCUS ON THE 1930S AND WHAT HAPPENED, SO AS A RESULT OF IT BASICALLY, GERMANY WAS MUCH MORE REGENT THAN OTHERS TO ALLOW ANY TYPE OF A PARTY THAT STARTS TO LOOK LIKE A SYSTEM PARTY, AND THIS WAS MOSTLY ABOUT FAR RIGHT , DEMOCRATS MADE A RULE THEY ARE NOT GOING TO ENTER A COALITION WITH THE FAR LEFT AND NOW THIS DOES NOT WORK ANYMORE.

THE POLITICAL PAST, THIS EXPERIENCE OF GERMANY, IS LOSING ITS POWER TO SHAPE THE POLITICAL CHOICES.

AFTER THREE GENERATIONS, COMMUNISM AND NAZISM LOOKS LIKE A CONSTRUCT, SO THEY ARE NOT AFRAID TO VOTE FOR PARTIES WHICH ARE IN THE MAINSTREAM DISCOURSE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER THAT ARE RELATED TO THIS PERIOD OF EITHER THE GERMANY OR THE GR.

>> YOU SAID SOMETHING FASCINATING THAT THIS IS PARTLY ABOUT THE LOSS OF MEMORY OR THE MEMORY AT LEAST, OF THE 20th CENTURY CRISES OF COMMUNISM AND -ISM IN GERMANY, PEOPLE SAYING, NEVER AGAIN.

AND SOMEHOW, THAT IS FADED FROM MEMORY AND YET YOU ALSO SAY THAT THIS IS ALMOST A NOSTALGIC MOVEMENT TO GO BACK TO SOME TYPE OF GERMANY THAT'S A FANTASY VERSION OF GERMANY, IS THAT RIGHT?

>> DON'T FORGET, THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND, THE GERMAN MEMORY AND REMEMBRANCE CULTURE BECAUSE IT WAS MUCH MORE STRONG AND RADICAL THAN ANYWHERE ELSE AND WE BELIEVE THAT THIS WAS ONLY THE CULTURE OF GUILT BUT THIS WAS ALSO THE CULTURE OF PRIDE BECAUSE WEST GERMANY, WE WERE PROUD TO BE THE FIRST ONE WHO FACED THE CRIMES THAT WE DID.

AND THIS WAS VERY MUCH ABOUT THE GENERATION OF 1968.

BUT IMPORTANT THINGS HAPPEN AND I KNOW THAT WE SHOULD BE VERY NUANCED, PARTICULARLY AFTER THE END OF THE COLD WAR, A BRITISH HISTORIAN PUT IT IN A VERY NICE WAY, HE SAID, WE STOPPED STUDYING HISTORY.

WE STARTED STUDYING ONLY THE LESSONS OF HISTORY.

SO SUDDENLY, WHILE EVERYBODY WAS TALKING VERY MUCH ABOUT THE CRIMES AND THE NAZI'S AND STALINISM, PEOPLE DIDN'T UNDERSTAND ANYMORE HOW IT HAPPENED THAT YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE 1920S AND 1930S IN GERMANY, BECAME EITHER COMMUNIST OR FASCIST.

THIS KIND OF A DISAPPEARANCE OF THE PERSONAL UNDERSTANDING, THIS TYPE OF NOT UNDERSTANDING, WHAT WAS MOVING PEOPLE IN ONE DIRECTION AND THE OTHER, AND REDUCING HISTORY TO THE LESSONS OF HISTORY, MAKING IT POSSIBLE, SO FOR THESE PEOPLE, I DON'T BELIEVE THERE IS NOSTALGIA FOR THE--NAZI PERIOD OR COMMUNIST PERIOD.

MORE BISMARCK AND LESS HITLER BUT WE WANT YOU TO BE A NORMAL COUNTRY AND LET'S STOP TALKING ABOUT GERMANY ONLY ABOUT HITLER, LET'S ALSO TRY TO SEE WHAT WE'VE DONE.

WE HAVE THE RIGHTS THAT OTHER NATIONS HAVE.

THAT'S BECAUSE OF THE EXCEPTIONAL NATURE OF GERMAN HISTORY, EUROPEAN POLICY AS A WHOLE IS CHANGING BECAUSE THEN SUDDENLY, AND THIS IS THE INTERESTING THING.

NATIONS CAN AGREE ON MIGRANTS BUT THEY CAN'T AGREE WHAT HAPPENED IN WORLD WAR II.

THIS PUTS THE EUROPEAN PROJECTS UNDER PRESSURE, IN A MOMENT IN WHICH YOU KNOW, IN THE NEXT YEAR, 2027, THEY ARE GOING TO BE HAVING FOUR CRITICAL ELECTIONS, FRANCE, ITALY, SPAIN AND POLAND.

SO HOW THESE GOVERNMENTS ARE GOING TO WORK TOGETHER TO WHAT EXTENT BASICALLY, THIS IS GOING TO BE ALSO AN EXISTENTIAL CRISIS FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION.

THIS IS WHAT MAKES THESE ELECTIONS WHICH ARE REGIONAL ELECTIONS IN GERMANY SO IMPORTANT.

>> SO YOU THINK THE ELECTIONS IN GERMANY ARE A FOREBEAR OF WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN WITH MARIE LE PEN IN FRANCE, WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN IN OTHER COUNTRIES IN EUROPE THAT ARE FACING THIS I'LL CALL IT, NATIONALIST POPULACE BACKLASH?

>> LISTEN, WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN, I DON'T KNOW.

OF COURSE WE HAVE PROBABLY MORE FORTUNETELLERS PER CAPITA BUT IT'S DIFFICULT TO ALWAYS HAVE A PREDICTION BUT IT'S CLEAR, YOU CAN END UP WITH RIGHT WING COALITIONS AND ALL THE COUNTRIES THAT THEY'VE TALKED, ITALY, POLAND, SPAIN AND KEEP IN MIND SOMETHING THAT IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR ME.

NORMALLY WHEN WE TALK ABOUT ONE PARTY, YOU REMEMBER WHEN MALONEY CAME TO POWER, EVERYTHING WAS ABOUT MALONEY, BUT WE ARE SEEING A MUCH MORE FRAGMENTATION.

YOU HAVE A PARTY ON THE RIGHT, AND POLAND, YOU HAVE ALMOST 2 PARTIES ON THE RIGHT, OF COURSE IT'S NOT THE CONSERVATIVES BUT IT'S THE BOX IN SPAIN.

SO WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE MAJOR TRANSFORMATION OF EUROPEAN POLITICS, AND HERE COMES THE QUESTION, FROM THE EUROPEAN POINT OF VIEW PARTICULARLY IN A SITUATION IN WHICH ALSO EXPECT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS, WE ARE GOING TO SEE EVEN MORE OF AN ESCALATION.

YOU CAN BELIEVE THAT THE NEW DEFENSE BUDGETS IN GERMANY WHICH IS VERY HIGH, IN FIVE YEARS THE BUDGET WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE DEFENSE BUDGET OF FRANCE AND THE UNITED KINGDOM TOGETHER.

THIS IS THE ONLY WAY FOR EUROPE TO BE ABLE TO DEFEND ITSELF.

THIS IS GOING TO BE COMBINED WITH --AND IF YOU ARE A POLISH OR FRENCH NATIONALIST, YOU CANNOT BE SURE.

I DO BELIEVE THAT FROM THIS POINT, WE END IT WITH THE STORY, THAT THE BEST AND THE WORST IS THE SAME THING.

THE DECISION OF GERMANY, TO TAKE IN ITS HANDS THE DEFENSE OF ITSELF IS THE BEST THING THAT EUROPE CAN HOPE FOR BUT ON THE OTHER SIDE, IT CAN BECOME A MAJOR THREAT, IF YOU CAN IMAGINE, ONE DAY THE NATIONALISTS ARE GOING TO DOMINATE AND THEY'RE GOING TO RUN THE COUNTRIES.

>> ONE PARADOX HERE, IS THAT THESE NATIONALISTS POPULACE PARTIES, VERY MUCH AGAINST IN SOME WAYS THE EUROPEAN EXPERIMENT BUT THEY STILL HAVE A STRONG DESIRE TO STAY IN EUROPE, TO STAY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION, IS THAT RIGHT, AND WHY?

>> IT'S VERY IMPORTANT, AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT HAS CHANGED FOR THE LAST 10 YEARS.

10 YEARS AGO AFTER BREXIT, THERE WERE 17 PARTIES THAT WERE ADVOCATING FOR THE REFERENDUMS EITHER FOR --AND NOW WE WILL SEE THAT MOST OF THESE KIND OF PARTIES WOULD SHAPE IT, BREXIT DIDN'T DO WELL.

AND SUDDENLY, ALL OF THESE COUNTRIES LOOK AROUND AND SAID THE WORLD IS TOO BIG, THE WORLD IS TO HOSTILE.

WHAT WE ARE GOING TO DO IN IT, BECAUSE AS THE GERMAN PRESIDENT ONCE SAID, IN EUROPE, THERE ARE ONLY TWO TYPES OF COUNTRIES, SMALL COUNTRIES THAT THEY KNOW THAT THEY ARE SMALL, AND SMALL COUNTRIES WHO DO NOT KNOW YET THAT THEY ARE SMALL.

I BELIEVE THEY ARE STARTING TO UNDERSTAND THIS.

AS A RESULT OF IT, THE BIGGEST STORIES THAT WE DO NOT HAVE PARTIES --IT'S BASICALLY TO LEAVE OR DESTROY THE UNION BUT KEEP IN MIND, WHEN PARTIES LIKE THIS COMES TO POWER, QUITE OFTEN, AND HAS THE POLITICAL LOGIC OF IF I RAN A BANK.

IF I BELIEVE THIS GOVERNMENT IS NOT GOING TO BE READY TO INVEST IN THE EUROPEAN UNION, THEN I START HEDGING, EVEN IF I'M A EUROPEAN GOVERNMENT, I'M TRYING TO BEHAVE IN A WAY THAT IF SOMETHING IS GOING WRONG, I'M GOING TO BE IN A BETTER POSITION WHICH MEANS, I'M NOT GOING TO THINK IN THE COMMON EUROPEAN DEFENSE.

I'M GOING TO INVEST IN NATIONAL DEFENSE.

I'M TRYING BASICALLY TO FOCUS ON MY OWN INDUSTRY, AND THIS IS PART OF ALL OF THIS BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK, WHY HAVE THEY BEEN SO CRITICAL, THE MESSAGE WAS, YOU NEVER TOOK CARE OF US, YOU ARE TAKING CARE OF FOREIGNERS, AND ARE THESE PEOPLE MORE VALUABLE TO YOU THAN US, WHY WE NEVER GET THIS OR THAT, IT'S AN INTERESTING QUESTION, AND YOU CAN SEE IT ON MANY PLACES, AND FROM THIS POINT OF VIEW, LET'S PUT IT METAPHORICALLY, HOUSING, THEY FEEL HOMELESS BECAUSE THEY DON'T HAVE A PHYSICAL HOUSE, FOR THE RIGHT, THEY FEEL HOMELESS AND THEY LOST THE IDEA OF THEIR HOME, AND THE WAY THEY UNDERSTOOD IT.

TO ITS HOUSING AND HOMES, SO THIS IS WHERE WE ARE IN EUROPEAN POLITICS.

EVERYONE FEELS HOMELESS FOR DIFFERENT REASONS.

>> IVAN KRASTEV, THANKS FOR JOINING US.

>> THANK YOU.