GOP Pollster: VP Harris Is the Strongest Democratic Candidate

CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CHIEF INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: Now, President Joe Biden remains under intense scrutiny, as we’ve been saying, as the summit draws to a close, the NATO Summit. Amid all the uncertainty and calls for him to drop out, Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins Walter Isaacson to discuss her latest essay, “No Poll Can Tell Biden What He Needs to Hear.” She argues the president’s issue is not a sudden loss of support, but a gradual erosion of confidence.

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WALTER ISAACSON, CO-HOST, AMANPOUR AND CO.: Thank you, Christiane. And Kristen Solis Anderson, welcome to the show.

KRISTEN SOLIS ANDERSON, REPUBLICAN POLLSTER AND FOUNDER PARTY, ECHELON INSIGHTS: Thank you for having me.

ISAACSON: So, President Biden, resisting calls for him to step down from the race, is deploying all sorts of populist rhetoric, attacking the elites, the establishment. It’s almost like out of a Donald Trump playbook. Will that work in the Democratic Party?

ANDERSON: It looks like it’s been working for now. The ability to say, look, I’m listening to the voters, not the elites. I’m not going to apologize for who I am. These are all things that have been successful when deployed by Donald Trump over the last eight or nine years. So, you can understand why Joe Biden would take this defiant posture and say, I think I can just sort of put my head down and power my way through this. The problem he may face is, one, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are not the same. While they both have politicians who are eager to please their voters and stay elected, the forces within the Democratic Party are slightly different than those on the GOP side and may mean that the party is less susceptible to the I’m going to put my head down, not apologize, power through kind of approach. You also have a problem with the fact that, for Biden, the electability concern is very real. And while for Donald Trump, he’s been able to say, well, stick with me and I can get elected. And his voters have believed it all along. For Biden, that is increasingly not the case.

ISAACSON: You say defiance, a head down, sort of sticking it to people. Does that appeal to voters? It seems sometimes it does.

ANDERSON: So, I think in this case, not so much. I think this is, in some ways, a misread on the part of the Biden team, because the concerns that voters have about the president are not going to go away. They are very much related to his age, which is not going to go in reverse as we approach November. And frankly, the elites, in some ways, are late to the game on this. Rather than there being a disconnect between elites and the voters where it was elites trying to nudge the voters in a certain way, this way, voters have been saying for months, you know, three quarters of them telling pollsters that they think that Biden is frankly too old. And so, as a result of that, this is one where I think just saying, no, we’re going to take this bunker mentality and we’re going to hope this goes away, I don’t think long-term that’s likely to be a very effective strategy.

ISAACSON: Is Biden the strongest candidate to defeat Donald Trump?

ANDERSON: Right now, the poll is — the polls are somewhat inconclusive because some of the other contenders are less well known. So, while we pretty much know that a race between, say, Joe Biden and Donald Trump right now favors Trump by five points or so against, say, Kamala Harris, the polls give a much wider range of possible outcomes. There are more people who are turned off by her, but also more people who think, gosh, at least I wouldn’t have to worry about the age question. And to say nothing of folks like, say, Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, who are well known to folks that pay a close attention to political news, but your kind of median swing state voter probably doesn’t know that much about them and would be more likely to tell a pollster like me, I don’t know what I would do in that case. So, in some ways, the risk of nominating someone different is greater, but the potential reward is greater as well for changing course to a new candidate.

ISAACSON: Who do you think might be the strongest candidates for the Democratic Party?

ANDERSON: I think at this point you would have to say Kamala Harris. And it’s not because she’s a wonderful politician or because this White House has used her very effectively, but because, in some ways, that would be the least disruptive path forward rather than a very contentious primary where you hear this sort of fantasy land arguments, oh, we could have a very nice, friendly, everybody sit around and tell why they have a positive message. But I think inevitably, there would be some negativity and some infighting that would not be helpful to the Democrats. If it was instead a handing of the reins over to Kamala Harris, a more seamless transition, that would be something that would avoid that partisan infighting. And frankly, it’s not as though she pulls significantly worse than Joe Biden does. She has some political gifts and some political downsides when it comes relative to the incumbent president. But I think she would probably be the best bet for conveying that sense of stability. That is what Democrats are really leaning on to make the case that they should be chosen over Donald Trump, who they say is an agent of exactly the sort of chaos that voters do not want.

ISAACSON: You say that Kamala Harris would be a strong candidate, agent of stability, but to some extent, politics, especially populist politics these days, tends to be affected by media attacks, social media attacks, especially from the conservatives on social media, in which she’s a real target, but of course, all sides on social media and the media. Don’t you think that she presents a target more than other Democratic candidates?

ANDERSON: Well, she certainly represents, you know, having a target on her back because she has already been a target, at least, of conservative media for quite some time. So, that would not be anything new. And I guess what that raises for me is the question of how much of that is already kind of priced in, where for somebody like a Gretchen Whitmer, you know, to what extent are there things in her record in Michigan that would be unflattering, perhaps the handling of something like COVID-19. We know that’s been a really sore spot for Democrats within their own coalition. Is that something that makes her potentially a risk? Or to say nothing of Gavin Newsom, who, you know, you can guarantee if he was chosen by the Democrats, Republicans are going to be all too happy to talk about him going to dinner at the French Laundry while everything else was closed in California. There’s plenty in Gavin Newsom’s record that Republicans would also consider a pretty target rich environment. So, yes, Kamala Harris is not necessarily the most beloved, popular, or perfect vice president there is, but she would be somebody who you could hand the reins to very effectively. And frankly, I’d have to imagine if you’re somebody like a Gretchen Whitmer or a Gavin Newsom, you think your political life cycle might be a little bit longer. You may recognize that stepping in right now is very risky and could really do some damage to you long-term. You may not want any part of this, even if Harris is not essentially anointed, you know, the person that Biden hands things over to.

ISAACSON: You have written a piece that says “No Poll Can Tell Biden What He Needs to Hear.” Two questions. Why not? Why can’t a poll help tell him that? And secondly, what does he need to hear?

ANDERSON: Well, I think what President Biden needs to hear is that he has served his country for the last three and a half years. He has served a long time in public service, as you noted, my entire lifetime for sure, and that he ought to walk away, take his achievements, hope that history looks fondly on him and know when to step away. And I don’t think a poll is going to give him the nudge that he needs to make that happen. I mean, you have seen in the last couple of days race ratings change where you now have a lot of the swing states have been moved even further into Donald Trump’s camp, or they’ve been moved away from being toss ups. It seems very likely at this point that Joe Biden will not be re-elected for a second term. But the polls, at this point, have also not cratered for him dramatically. He’s not losing to Trump by 10, 15 points. The sort of thing you might see in an alternate normal reality, where you have a president that Americans think simply cannot serve. You have an awful lot of voters who say, I don’t think Joe Biden can make it another four years, but I’m voting for him anyways, because he’s not Donald Trump. So, my column essentially said that there are a lot of voters out already expecting that Joe Biden is having mental acuity issues, that his age is already a problem, and they nevertheless have calculated he is still better than Donald Trump. And so, that’s why after the debates, you didn’t see Biden’s polling go down a little bit, but not that much. I don’t think it’s going to be the kind of earthquake that we may have expected that would force Biden to really have to step out of the race.

ISAACSON: So, what you’re saying is that even though the polls show that 70 to 80 percent of people — of all parties feel Joe Biden’s too old to be president, he might not be able to serve out a term, that that’s now been priced in, so to speak, and you don’t think it’ll further affect this race?

ANDERSON: It’s possible that he continues to give interviews or unscripted appearances that further underscore a state of decline and that make people go, I thought it was bad, but I didn’t think it was this bad. So, I don’t rule out the possibility that things could get worse, but I also think that something that, in a weird way, benefits Joe Biden is the fact that his coalition is not about him. Donald Trump’s coalition is about Donald Trump. It’s people affirmatively saying, I like Donald Trump. But for Joe Biden, in the 2020 election, when we looked at the exit polls, most of the people who voted for Joe Biden said their vote was mostly about opposing Donald Trump. So, in some ways, Joe Biden being very imperfect or potentially not being up to the job of being president is less important because his voters are with him because he’s not Donald Trump. It also may make it easier for Democrats to make a switch to put someone else in that position because their coalition, again, is not about the name that’s on the ballot, it’s about not being Donald Trump.

ISAACSON: Donald Trump is only a couple of years younger than Joe Biden. He’s also been convicted of felonies, all sorts of legal problems. Does that come up in your discussion with voters and particularly with Republican voters?

ANDERSON: So, Donald Trump’s many flaws, his convictions, his — the accusations, all of it, is, in another way, kind of priced in to what people think about Donald Trump. And in a weird way, Donald Trump having been absent from the public mind and out of the White House, in my view, has made a lot of voters revert back to thinking of him as kind of outlaw business man. They think of him more in terms of his kind of apprentice era persona than the way they thought of him as president. When Donald Trump was president, his approval ratings were not great, especially toward the end, there were lots of Americans that said, I don’t think this is working out and I want to change. But as he has been further and further removed from the White House, there’s almost been a nostalgia that has set in where voters are looking past things like the felony convictions and saying, yes, yes, I know he’s not a great guy, but I think the economy was better when he was president. I think his policies made me better off. And so, Donald Trump has really benefited from — even though he’s had all of this stuff happen that we would think in normal times would be unfathomable in a presidential election, he’s able to kind of ride it out because voters still think his policies would make them better off. That’s a very powerful belief working in his favor.

ISAACSON: One of the key elements of Donald Trump’s campaign, reinforced in the platforms they’ve been discussing this week, is to seal the border and to have a massive deportation of people in this country illegally. How well does that resonate with Republican voters and for that matter with Democrats and Independents? Is that a key issue for America?

ANDERSON: It is a very key issue with Republicans, and it was Donald Trump’s early adoption of the immigration issue as sort of his signature platform piece, the build the wall policy of 2016. That is what endeared him to the Republican base in the first place. It made him different from the more kind of pro-business moderate on immigration stance that most of the rest of the party leaders back then had adopted. And since then, America has really moved to the right on the immigration issue. It’s no longer just something that Republicans believe strongly in, it’s an issue where even independent voters give the GOP a wide margin in saying, I trust this party more to handle the issue. Now, there are ways that Republicans can overplay this, and we certainly saw, for instance, during Trump’s presidency, the family separation issue, the stories of parents being separated from their children at the border that, you know, at least for the moment, really swung public opinion against Trump. People said that’s too far. So, if he were to be elected, and if you were to see things like that happening again, there’s always a chance that public opinion could go, whoa, whoa, whoa. We wanted a secure border. We wanted the law enforced. But this feels like too much. But at the moment, at least in the abstract, what people are seeing are images of, you know, border crossings that it just feels like there’s lawlessness afoot. Donald Trump claims to be this strong man who wants to put in place law and order. And it’s not just Republicans who find that appealing now, it’s one of his key points of appeal to some of these swing voters that have now gone into his camp.

ISAACSON: President Biden and the Democrats want to make abortion and reproductive rights the main issue. Is that possible to make that the main issue in voters’ minds? And to what extent is it an effective issue with Republican voters as well as Democratic voters?

ANDERSON: So, the issue of abortion was one that used to animate both parties bases but was pretty out of the mix for your kind of swing voter, that the consensus around Roe versus Wade had taken the issue off the table. But what we saw in 2022 was with abortion as a live issue, one that suddenly was in flux. And now, one in 2024, we’re able — actually be on the ballot in a number of key states in terms of constitutional ballot amendments and such. This is an issue that I think is going to play a big role. It will play a role in two ways. First, by being very motivational to Democrats, even if they find that Joe Biden is a lackluster candidate, or even if there’s a swap and you get someone like Kamala Harris, who is a very flawed candidate, you will still have a lot of Democratic voters turning out because they don’t want Donald Trump. And down ballot voting for Democratic candidates because they want to get Roe re-enshrined into law in some way, either through the Senate, either through the appointment of judges in the future, those sorts of things. So, that’s piece number one. But piece number two is also for those swing voters. I have heard from swing voters who will not say that abortion is their top issue at all. They say cost of living is number one. But if they hear that a politician is prolife or wants to put into place any kind of policy that is considered pretty extreme, something like a very early on abortion ban, it’s the sort of thing that can be a deal breaker issue where they won’t tell a pollster like me abortion is number one, but it’s very hard for them to imagine casting a ballot for someone with whom they strongly disagree on the issue. So, that’s why though it is unlikely to be a top issue and it’s certainly not one that Republicans want to talk about a lot, you saw Republicans have some language around abortion kind of softened in their platform as they head into the Republican convention. Republicans know this is a liability and are trying to avoid it, while Democrats know it may be their best shot in a year where you have somebody like a President Biden on the ticket who voters do not seem to be very favorable toward.

ISAACSON: Is there a significant chance that Donald Trump can take black and for that matter, Hispanic voters away from the Democratic Party?

ANDERSON: I think there is, and we’ve seen it in an awful lot of data that’s come in over the last few months. It wasn’t just one or two polls here or there that showed Donald Trump doing well, it was a number of polls where if you look in the cross tabs, you see this pattern emerge. Donald Trump is, in particular, doing well with Latino voters. We’ve seen Republicans really building a greater and greater share of their vote with the Latino part of their coalition, especially in states like Florida and in Texas. Some of the parts in 2020 that actually swung toward Donald Trump rather than away from him were the Rio Grande Valley, because the politics of an issue like crime or like immigration or like the economy have not benefited Democrats. Their message on those issues has not resonated with voters of color as much as Donald Trump’s message of, I’m going to try to make sure that your job pays a good wage, I’m going to try to keep your taxes low, I’m going to try to help entrepreneurs and I’m going to try to enforce the law. It’s a message that for voters across the spectrum. They have found to be a little bit more appealing than, I think, Democrats bargained for. And so, there is a real chance that Donald Trump could do better among, say, black men than he did in previous elections. And that would be a very, I think, shocking finding to many. But if Donald Trump wins, that will be a big piece of how he gets there.

ISAACSON: Kristen Soltis Anderson, thank you so much for joining us.

ANDERSON: Thank you for having me.