Iran, Venezuela, Cuba: Is Trump Beginning a New Era of Regime Change?

>>> AS WE DISCUSSED EARLIER, THE PROSPECT OF REAL REGIME CHANGE IN IRAN SOON IS QUESTIONABLE, YET PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS BEEN TOUTING THE JANUARY CAPTURE OF VENEZUELA'S DICTATOR AS THE PERFECT EXAMPLE OF AN INTERVENTION GONE RIGHT.

NOW HE'S SUGGESTING CUBA MAY BE NEXT.

VIVIAN SALAMA IS A STAFF WRITER AT THE ATLANTIC AND HAS BEEN REPORTING ON THE MIDDLE EAST FOR 15 YEARS.

SHE GIVES WALTER ISAACSON HER ANALYSIS ON TRUMP'S ACTIONS IN IRAN AND IN LATIN AMERICA.

>> THANK YOU, CHRISTIANE, AND VIVIAN SALAMA, WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

>> GREAT TO BE HERE.

>> WHAT IS YOUR UNDERSTANDING WHY PRESIDENT TRUMP LAUNCHED THE ATTACKS ON IRAN?

WHAT WAS THE PLAN THERE?

>> I THINK THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF BUILD-UP.

CERTAINLY HE HAS BELIEVED FOR SOME TIME NUCLEAR TALKS WERE BASICALLY GOING NOWHERE.

HE HAS LONG CONDEMNED JCPOA.

HE OBVIOUSLY PULLED OUT OF IT, THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL, HIS FIRST TERM IN OFFICE AND HE HAS SINCE SORT OF TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF RENEGOTIATING WITH IRAN TRYING TO GET THEM IN LINE.

THEIR ENRICHMENT ACTIVITIES HAVE GROWN OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS SINCE THE U.S.

WITHDREW FROM THE JCPOA.

SO HE WAS REALLY LOOKING FOR A SOLUTION OF SOME KIND, EITHER THAT THEY WOULD BE ABLE TO FORCE THE IRANIANS' HAND IN NEGOTIATIONS, PARTICULARLY SINCE LAST YEAR THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION LAUNCHED STRIKES ON A NUMBER OF NUCLEAR FACILITIES IN IRAN.

THERE'S A DEBATE EVEN WITHIN THE ADMINISTRATION ABOUT HOW EFFECTIVE THOSE STRIKES WERE, BUT THEY BELIEVED THAT AT LEAST IT WEAKENED THEIR HAND A LITTLE BIT.

ISRAEL'S ALSO WAR IN THE REGION WITH A NUMBER OF IRANIAN PROXIES, THE HOUTHIS, HEZBOLLAH, ALSO PLAYED A FACTOR INTO IT.

>> WHAT ABOUT THE THING THAT ISRAEL FORCED THE HAND?

>> YEAH.

THEN THERE'S THAT.

AS FAR AS THE EXACT TIMING GOES, NETANYAHU HAS MADE NO SECRET THIS IS A DREAM COME TRUE FOR HIM.

HE HAS BELIEVED FOR SOME TIME REGIME CHANGE IS ABSOLUTELY IMPERATIVE IN IRAN.

PRESIDENT TRUMP HIMSELF HAS SORT OF WAVERED ON THAT QUESTION, YOU KNOW.

IF THE CLERICAL LEADERSHIP OF IRAN WERE TO SIT AT THE TABLE AND MAKE A DEAL WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP, I DON'T THINK THAT HE WOULD HAVE WALKED AWAY FROM THAT.

>> WELL, SUPPOSE THAT THE AYATOLLAH'S SON CONSOLIDATES POWER.

WHAT POSSIBLE END GAMES ARE THERE?

>> AT THIS POINT, YOU KNOW, I THINK IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EXACTLY HOW THIS COULD PLAY OUT EXCEPT THAT THE IRANIAN LEADERSHIP FINDS ITSELF BACKED INTO A CORNER AND SO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED, ITS HAND SO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED, THAT IT HAS NO CHOICE TO EITHER SURRENDER OR NEGOTIATE AND THAT IS WHAT THE ADMINISTRATION IS CERTAINLY HOPING FOR.

THEY WANT TO SEE THAT KIND OF A SOLUTION, ESPECIALLY AS PRESIDENT TRUMP DANGLES THIS POSSIBILITY OF GROUND TROOPS BEING NEEDED TO BE ABLE TO KIND OF SEE THEIR OBJECTIVES THROUGH.

NOW I WANT TO EMPHASIZE WHAT THE OBJECTIVES THAT THEY KEEP PUTTING OUT ARE, WHETHER OR NOT, YOU KNOW, THAT IS ULTIMATELY WHERE IT TAKES THE CONFLICT OR NOT, BUT THEY SAY THEY WANT TO DENIGRATE IRAN'S NUCLEAR CAPACITY.

THEY WANT TO TAKE OUT ITS MISSILES.

THEY WANT TO TAKE OUT ITS NAVY AND PRESIDENT TRUMP IN A PRESS CONFERENCE THIS WEEK SAYING THE NAVY HAS PRETTY MUCH BEEN ANNIHILATED AND THEN LASTLY, TARGET THE PROXIES THAT ARE IN THE REGION.

SO THAT IS WHAT THEY CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE, IS THEIR CORE MISSION AT HAND.

THEY DON'T LIKE TO TALK ABOUT REGIME CHANGE EXCEPT PRESIDENT TRUMP LIKES TO TAP DANCE AND FLIRT WITH THIS IDEA OF REGIME CHANGE AND SAY YES.

AT THIS POINT I THINK IT'S TIME FOR REGIME CHANGE IN IRAN.

OBVIOUSLY HE TENDS TO KIND OF FLIP-FLOP ON SOME OF THESE ISSUES, AS DO A NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN HIS ADMINISTRATION.

THAT'S WHY WE HAVE TO KIND OF WAIT AND SEE HOW IT UNFOLDS.

>> YOU TALK ABOUT THE NEED TO DEGRADE IRAN'S PROXIES IN THE REGION YOU JUST CALLED THEM AND, OF COURSE, THE MAIN ONE IS LEBANON AND THE IRANIAN PROXIES IN LEBANON AND THAT SEEMS TO BE A SECOND FRONT IN THIS WAR OR AT LEAST FOR ISRAEL THAT'S ATTACKING THERE.

TELL ME HOW THIS IS GOING TO PLAY OUT AND IS THE U.S.

GOING TO OPEN A SECOND FRONT OR COULD IT IN LEBANON AGAINST IRAN'S PROXIES?

>> SO FAR MY UNDERSTANDING IS THEY ARE VERY RELUCTANT TO OPEN A SECOND FRONT.

THEY WILL DEFEND ISRAEL IF NEED BE WITH LIMITED TARGETING WHICH WE'VE SEEN IN RECENT YEARS AS WELL, BUT THEY'RE VERY RELUCTANT TO OPEN A SECOND FRONT AT THIS POINT, PARTICULARLY SINCE THE WAR IN IRAN ALREADY IS SO GROSSLY UNPOPULAR IN THE UNITED STATES EVEN AMONG MANY IN THE PRESIDENT'S BASE.

THEY WOULD RATHER GET IN AND OUT AND DO THIS AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE, ALSO JUST BECAUSE WE ARE IN A MIDTERM ELECTION YEAR AND A LOT OF THAT HANGS IN THE BALANCE, ALSO BECAUSE ENERGY PRICES ARE RISING AND PLACING PRESSURE ON THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.

I THINK THEY ARE DEFINITELY LEANING TOWARD AN IN AND OUT SCENARIO FOR THOSE REASONS.

EASIER SAID THAN DONE.

I'VE COVERED THE MIDDLE EAST 15 YEARS.

I KNOW THESE CONFLICTS WITH SPIRAL OUT OF CONTROL ALMOST OVERNIGHT.

THIS IS ALREADY LOOKING THAT WAY.

ISRAEL HAS SORT OF MADE IT ITS MISSION TO TRY TO COMPLETE WHAT IT STARTED A FEW YEARS AGO AND GO AFTER REMAINING CELLS OF HEZBOLLAH THAT HAVE CREATED ANY KIND OF TROUBLE FOR ISRAEL.

THAT'S THEIR POSITIONING OF IT, BUT, OF COURSE, WE SEE CIVILIAN SITES TARGETED AS WELL, WHICH IS VERY TROUBLING AND COULD ALSO OPEN THE DOOR FOR A WIDER CONFLICT.

SO -- >> YOU JUST SAID SOMETHING A MOMENT AGO ABOUT IT COULD SPIRAL OUT OF CONTROL AND THAT'S WHAT WE'RE SEEING NOW.

IS THIS REALLY SPIRALING OUT OF CONTROL AND WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY THAT?

>> WELL, YOU ALREADY SEE IRAN LAUNCHING ATTACKS SORT OF HAPHAZARDLY AROUND THE REGION, EVEN BEYOND THE REGION.

I WAS READING AZERBAIJAN GOT MISSILES.

I DON'T HAVE A LIST RIGHT NOW OF ALL THE COUNTRIES THAT GOT HIT ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

SOME OF IT WAS MISFIRES AND THINGS LIKE, THAT BUT OTHERS WERE DELIBERATE.

CERTAINLY IRAN IS ALREADY GOING AFTER U.S.

ALLIES IN THE REGION, ITS ARAB ALLIES, TARGETING SITES IN THE HUNDREDS PER DAY IN PLACES LIKE THE UNITED EMIRATES AND QATAR AND SAUDI ARABIA.

THESE ARE COUNTRIES THAT OBVIOUSLY HAVE VERY CLOSE TIES WITH THE UNITED STATES.

SOME OF THEM HOST U.S.

MILITARY BASES THERE AND IT'S PARTIALLY WHY THEY ARE BEING TARGETED.

THEY ARE ALSO NO FRIEND TO IRAN.

THEY WERE VERY MUCH ON BOARD FOR CONTAINING IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM AND KIND OF GETTING IT IN LINE, BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, THEY DID NOT WANT TO GET DRAGGED INTO THIS CONFLICT.

I WAS TALKING TO ARAB OFFICIALS AND I WROTE A STORY BEFORE IN CONFLICT BEGAN ABOUT ARAB ALLIES DECLINING THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S REQUEST TO HAVE THEM USE HER THEIR MILITARY BASES BECAUSE OF THAT EXACT REASON.

>> YOU DON'T PUT MUCH STOCK IN THE IDEA THE SAUDIS HELPED PUSH THIS ATTACK ON IRAN AS WELL.

>> I DON'T THINK THEY'RE CRYING FOR THE AYATOLLAH.

I DEFINITELY THINK THEY'D LIKE TO SEE SOME LIMITED STRIKES.

HOWEVER, WHILE THE OFFICIALS I TALKED TO BELIEVED THAT A BROAD CONFLICT LIKE THE ONE WE'RE SEEING NOW WAS ONLY GOING TO CREATE TENSION AND DESTABILIZE THE REGION, OBVIOUSLY DESTABILIZE ENERGY MARKETS AND THAT'S WHAT WE'RE SEEING.

WHETHER IT'S SHORT TERM OR NOT, WE'LL FIND OUT.

>> YOU TALK ABOUT DESTABILIZING ENERGY MARKETS WHICH IS A BIT OF A EUPHEMISM, WHEN I GO BY THE GAS STATION GOING TO HIT $4 SOON AND NOW $90 A BARREL.

IF THIS CONFLICT SORT OF SIMMERS FOR A WHILE, DOESN'T EXPLODE BUT STAYS ON, DO YOU THINK OIL STAYS ABOVE $90 A BARREL AND DOES THAT HELP RUSSIA?

DOES THAT HURT THE AMERICAN ECONOMY?

DOES IT HELP CHINA?

>> A LOT OF IT HINGES ON WHETHER OR NOT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ BECOMES PASSABLE.

AT THIS POINT IT'S NOT AND THAT'S ONE OF THE BIG REASONS.

IT'S EITHER BECAUSE IT'S TOO DANGEROUS OR BECAUSE TANKER COMPANIES DON'T WANT TO TAKE THE RISK.

IT'S UNDERSTANDABLE WITH MISSILES FLYING BACK AND FORTH OVER THE GULF.

IF THAT WERE TO CHANGE, THEN I COULD CERTAINLY SEE A SCENARIO IN WHICH THE OIL PRICES STABILIZE, BUT UNTIL GAS IS PUMPED AGAIN IN QATAR, ONE OF THE LARGEST LNG PRODUCERS, THOSE FACTORS DEFINITELY PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN THIS.

UNTIL THAT CHANGES I DON'T ENVISION A MAJOR CHANGE OR THESE PRICES COMING DOWN.

>> BOTH YOU AND THE ATLANTIC HAVE BEEN DOING A GREAT JOB COVERING UKRAINE AND UKRAINE IS ONE OF THE COUNTRIES THAT HAS ACTUALLY COME TO THE AID OF THE UNITED STATES AND OTHERS IN TERMS OF HELPING WITH DRONES, DEFENSE AGAINST DRONES THAT IRAN MAY HAVE.

TELL ME, WHAT IS UKRAINE DOING AND HOW THAT MIGHT AFFECT THE DYNAMIC OF THE UKRAINE WAR.

>> SO UKRAINE HAS BEEN VERY SKILLED AT DRONE TECHNOLOGY, IN PART BECAUSE IT HAD TO BE.

RUSSIA WAS ALSO VERY SKILLED AT THE USE OF DRONES.

I REMEMBER BEING ON THE FRONT LINES AND HEARING THE HOVERING BUZZ OF DRONES OVER MY HEAD FROM RUSSIAN DRONES THAT WERE FLYING IN AND OVER UKRAINE.

THEY HAD TO QUICKLY FIND WAYS TO COMBAT THAT AND ESPECIALLY BECAUSE A LOT OF THE DRONE TECHNOLOGY THAT THEY DID HAVE, THEIR DRONES WERE ABLE TO BE SHOT DOWN BY RUSSIAN TECHNOLOGY THEY DIDN'T HAVE THEN.

SO THEY'VE BEEN ENHANCING THEIR TECHNOLOGY OVER THIS TIME IN A WAY TO BE ABLE TO FIGHT IN THIS MODERN WAY AND SO PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY IN RECENT DAYS TOOK TO X AND OFFERED DRONE TECHNOLOGY TO HELP SUPPORT THIS WAR BECAUSE IRAN HAS BEEN ABLE TO SOW CHAOS ACROSS THE REGION IN PART BECAUSE OF DRONE TECHNOLOGY.

THAT HAS BEEN AN ISSUE SO FAR.

PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS ASKED ABOUT THIS AND HE SAID HE'D CONSIDER IT.

IT WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT ENDS UP IN A PARTNERSHIP, PARTICULARLY BECAUSE PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY HAS SORT OF STRUGGLED TO ENDEAR HIMSELF TO PRESIDENT TRUMP WHEN NEGOTIATING HIS OWN CONFLICT.

THAT MIGHT BE A WAY IN FOR HIM.

>> YOU HAD A GREAT PIECE IN THE ATLANTIC ABOUT A WEEK AGO CALLED "ALL EYES ON CUBA," THAT SAID OKAY, AFTER VENEZUELA, AFTER ALL THIS YOU HAVE A PRESIDENT WHO IS KIND OF LIKING REGIME CHANGE.

I THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID, IF WE ACHIEVE A HISTORIC TRANSFORMATION IN VENEZUELA, WE'RE ALSO LOOKING FORWARD TO THE GREAT CHANGE THAT WILL BE COMING TO CUBA.

WHAT DOES TRUMP WANT TO ACHIEVE THERE?

>> WELL, I'M SURE I DON'T HAVE TO TELL YOU, WALTER, CUBA HAS PROBABLY HAUNTED SEVEN DECADES WORTH OF PRESIDENTS OF BOTH PARTIES AND SO FINDING A SOLUTION TO CUBA, TO THE CUBA PROBLEM AND WHAT I MEAN BY THAT IS AGAIN THIS PERCEPTION THAT THERE'S A COMMUNIST REGIME AT THE DOORSTEP OF THE UNITED STATES THAT WOULD BE A PERCH FOR COUNTRIES LIKE RUSSIA OR ONCE UPON A TIME THE SOVIET UNION AND CHINA TO BE ABLE TO SPY ON THE UNITED STATES BECAUSE IT WOULD BE MORE SYMPATHETIC TO THEIR IDEOLOGIES AND NOT THE U.S.

THAT HAS HAUNTED PRESIDENTS OF BOTH PARTIES AND PRESIDENT TRUMP IS NO DIFFERENT EXCEPT THAT CIRCUMSTANCES ARE NOW DIFFERENT BECAUSE FOR THE PAST TWO OR THREE DECADES CUBA HAS LARGELY BEEN PROPPED UP BY VENEZUELA, VENEZUELAN OIL SPECIFICALLY.

I WROTE ABOUT THE HISTORY OF IT, THIS ALLIANCE BETWEEN FIDEL CASTRO AND HUGO CHAVEZ, THE PREDECESSOR TO NICOLAS MADURO, THE ONE WHO SORT OF FLIPPED VENEZUELA FROM DEMOCRACY TO A MORE SOCIALIST NATION.

YOU KNOW, CUBA NEEDED VENEZUELA BECAUSE IT HAD JUST LOST THE SOVIET UNION WHEN THE SOVIET UNION COLLAPSED AND IT NEEDED A BENEFACTOR TO HELP IT AND VENEZUELA STEPPED IN, STARTED SHIPPING OIL.

THEN CUBA WOULD RESPOND WITH DOCTORS AND, YOU KNOW, OTHER ASSISTANCE, INCLUDING INTELLIGENCE SHARING.

ALL THAT IS GONE NOW WITH NICOLAS MADURO BEING TOPPLED AND NICOLAS MADURO DEFINITELY CARRIED ON THAT TRADITION WITH CUBA.

REMOVING NICOLAS MADURO AND FORMING A BLOCKADE IN THE CARIBBEAN HAS ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF THOSE ECONOMIC LIFELINES TO CUBA.

CUBA'S ECONOMY WAS ALREADY STRUGGLING.

IT HAS BEEN FOR YEARS, MISMANAGEMENT BY THE GOVERNMENT, COVID.

ALL THESE THINGS COMPLICATED THEIR ABILITY TO KIND OF THRIVE AT A BASIC LEVEL, BUT THAT OIL, THAT OIL LINE THAT CAME FROM VENEZUELA WAS SO CRUCIAL AND IT'S BEEN CUT OFF.

>> WHAT DOES THE OPTION IN CUBA LOOK LIKE?

>> IT LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE OPPOSITION IN IRAN INTERESTINGLY.

IT IS DISORGANIZED, SCATTERED, MOST IN EXILE.

YOU KNOW, EXPERTS WHO HAVE FOLLOWED CUBA MORE THAN ME HAVE TOLD ME THAT IT'S VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT AT THIS STAGE.

THERE IS NO CLEAR LEADER AND THAT'S THE BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN VENEZUELA AND CUBA IS THAT THERE ISN'T JUST A CLEAR LEADER WHERE THEY CAN POINT TO AND SAY OKAY, THE OPPOSITION IS STRONG.

WE HAVE A FALLBACK IF NEGOTIATIONS DON'T WORK.

NOW, OF COURSE, IT DIDN'T MAY OUT THAT WAY IN VENEZUELA.

NICOLAS MADURO'S REGIME IS STILL IN POWER IRONICALLY.

>> COULD THAT HAPPEN IN CUBA?

>> IT'S POSSIBLE IT COULD HAPPEN IN CUBA.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, WE KNOW THAT SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO IS SPEAKING WITH THE GRANDSON OF RAUL CASTRO, FIDEL CASTRO'S BROTHER WHO LED THE COUNTRY FOR A WHILE, BUT HE'S 94 NOW.

SO HE'S ENJOYING HIS RETIREMENT SOMEWHERE.

HE'S SPEAKING WITH RAUL CASTRO'S GRANDSON AND THEY ARE TRYING TO SEE IF A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT COULD WORK IF THE CUBAN GOVERNMENT WOULD BE WILLING TO SORT OF MAKE PEACE WITH THE UNITED STATES AND I CAN TELL YOU THEY'RE WATCHING WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE WORLD VERY CLOSELY.

WHAT HAPPENED TO NICOLAS MADURO, I CAN'T TELL YOU.

IT STRUCK FEAR INTO THE HEARTS OF FOES AND ALLIES ALIKE BECAUSE HE WAS VIRTUALLY PLUCKED FROM HIS BED, PUT ON A SHIP AND THEN A HELICOPTER AND SENT TO A NEW YORK CITY COURTROOM.

A PRESIDENT OF A SOVEREIGN NATION AND THEY DID SO BYPASSING CONGRESS.

SO THAT WAS AN EYE OPENER AND CERTAINLY FOR THE CUBAN REGIME WHICH THINKS, YOU KNOW, IF YOU COULD DO THAT IN VENEZUELA, OF COURSE, HE COULD DO THAT TO US, TOO.

>> LET'S PUT THIS IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE.

A CENTURY AGO THE UNITED STATES USED TO GO AROUND DOING REGIME CHANGES, WHETHER IT BE LATIN AMERICA, ASIA AND THEN, OF COURSE, OVER THE 20th CENTURY IN IRAN AND MANY OTHER PLACES.

THOSE DID NOT TEND TO END WELL.

WHY IS THIS WHOLE NEW SPADE OF REGIME CHANGING?

DO YOU THINK THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE IT COULD END AS BADLY AS THE PREVIOUS?

>> JUST LAST WEEK I WROTE ABOUT THE 1953 ATTEMPT CIA COUP.

IT WAS NOT ATTEMPTED.

IT WAS ACTUALLY A SUCCESSFUL CIA COUP IN IRAN BY DUANE EISENHOWER AND WHAT WAS A SUCCESSFUL COUP AT THE TIME ENDED UP HAVING REPERCUSSIONS YEARS LATER, DECADES LATER I SHOULD SAY, WITH THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION WHICH WAS ROOTED IN PART BY WHO THE U.S.

PUT IN POWER AFTER THAT COUP AND SO IN THIS CASE HINDSIGHT IS NOT 20/20.

I HAVE BEEN ON TELEVISION TALKING ABOUT THIS AND I'VE BEEN TALKING TO EXPERTS ABOUT THIS, THAT UNFORTUNATELY HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT REGIME CHANGE OPERATIONS DON'T ALWAYS GO VERY WELL AND ESPECIALLY IF A FOREIGN POWER IS DICTATING WHO SHOULD RUN THAT COUNTRY AND THE PEOPLE HAVE LIMITED SAY IN THAT.

AND SO PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS BEEN VERY CAREFUL IN TERMS OF KIND OF EMPHASIZING THAT THE PEOPLE SHOULD BE THE ONES TO CHOOSE, BUT, OF COURSE, THE PEOPLE IN THIS CASE DID NOT CHOOSE DELCY RODRIGUEZ, NICOLAS MADURO'S VICE PRESIDENT, AND SHE FOR NOW IS THE CARETAKER GOVERNMENT LEADER OF VENEZUELA BECAUSE SHE'S THE ONE WHO IS WORKING WITH THE U.S.

WHETHER OR NOT THEY HAND POWER TO THE OPPOSITION GROUPS WHO DID LEGITIMATELY WIN ELECTIONS IN VENEZUELA, WE'RE NOT SURE IF THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN.

WE KEEP ASKING THE ADMINISTRATION THAT.

WE DON'T GET A CLEAR ANSWER.

I THINK THEY SEEM TO THINK THAT STABILITY NEEDS TO COME FIRST IN THE COUNTRY BEFORE YOU CAN HAVE A REFERENDUM OR AN ELECTION WHERE YOU KIND OF DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN, BUT IT'S VERY UNCLEAR HOW THIS IS GOING TO PLAY OUT AT THIS STAGE.

OBVIOUSLY IT'S ONLY BEEN A COUPLE OF MONTHS IN VENEZUELA.

WE'RE WATCHING THINGS HAD UNFOLD IN REALTIME IN IRAN.

SO IT'S HARD TO REALLY PREDICT HOW IT WOULD GO, BUT GIVEN WHAT YOU WERE JUST SAYING, HISTORY HAS NOT KIND OF BEEN TOO KIND TO OPERATIONS OF THIS NATURE AND SO WE HAVE TO HOLD OUR BREATH AND HOPE THAT THIS IS DIFFERENT, BUT IT'S HARD TO IMAGINE.

>> VIVIAN SALAMA, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> THANK YOU.