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>> HELLO, EVERYONE AND WELCOME TO "AMANPOUR & COMPANY. "
HERE'S WHAT'S COMING UP.
THE GAZA CEASEFIRE TESTED BUT HOLDING.
WE'LL HAVE AN UPDATE FROM THE REGION AFTER A DEADLY WEEKEND IN WHICH ISRAEL BOMBED THE ENCLAVE AND ISRAELI SOLDIERS WERE KILLED BY HAMAS.
> >> PLUS -- >> LET IT BE CUT THE WAY IT IS.
IT'S CUT UP RIGHT NOW.
>> A TENSE WHITE HOUSE MEETING AND A CRITICAL MOMENT FOR UKRAINE.
THE PRESIDENT SUGGESTS CARVING UP THE DONBAS REGION TO END THE WAR.
I'LL ASK KURT VOLKER, FORMER U. S. AMBASSADOR TO NATO, WHAT HAPPENS NEXT.
> >> THEN, ART, ACTIVISM AND AN AFRICAN ICON.
CELEBRATING FELA KUTI, A PIONEER OF AFROBEAT WHO RISKED HIS LIFE TO BETTER HIS COUNTRY.
> >> AND -- >> WE'RE ALWAYS LIVING IN A BUBBLE OF SOME SORT, AND IT WILL POP AT SOME POINT TOO.
WHAT WE WANT TO DO, THOUGH, IS PREVENT IT FROM POPPING IN SUCH A WAY THAT IT CREATES THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION.
>> "1929. "
INSIDE THE GREATEST CRASH IN WALL STREET HISTORY.
LESSONS FOR TODAY FROM THE GREAT DEPRESSION.
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>> "AMANPOUR & COMPANY" IS MADE POSSIBLE BY --THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT.
JIM ATTWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS.
CANDACE KING WEIR.
THE SYLVIA A. AND SIMON B. POYTA PROGRAMMING ENDOWMENT TO FIGHT ANTISEMITISM.
THE FAMILY FOUNDATION OF LEILA AND MICKEY STRAUS.
THE FILOMEN M. D'AGOSTINO FOUNDATION.
THE PETER G. PETERSON AND JOAN GANZ COONEY FUND.
CHARLES ROSENBLUM.
MONIQUE SCHOEN WARSHAW.
KOO AND PATRICIA YUEN, COMMITTED TO BRIDGING CULTURAL DIFFERENCES IN OUR COMMUNITIES.
BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG.
AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU.
THANK YOU.
> >> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, EVERYONE.
I'M BIANNA GOLODRYGA IN NEW YORK SITTING IN FOR CHRISTIANE AMMAN POR.
MORE LIVES LOST IN GAZA DESPITE THE CEASEFIRE.
IT WAS ANOTHER DEADLY WEEKEND IN THE SHATTERED ENCLAVE.
ISRAEL ACCUSED HAMAS OF VIOLATING THE TRUCE AND KILLING TWO OF ITS SOLDIERS.
THE IDF UNLEASHED MAJOR AIR STRIKES IN RESPONSE BY KILLED DOZENS OF PALESTINIANS.
PRESIDENT TRUMP, THOUGH, INSISTS THAT THE CEASEFIRE IS STILL IN PLACE.
HE DISPATCHED HIS SPECIAL ENVOY STEVE WITKOFF AND SON-IN-LAW JARED KUSHNER BACK TO ISRAEL TO KEEP THE DEAL ON TRACK.
THEY MET WITH THE PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU ON MONDAY BEHIND CLOSED DOORS.
MEANWHILE, THE U. N. WARNS THAT THE AID SUPPLIES GETTING INTO GAZA ARE STILL WAY BELOW WHAT'S NEEDED.
ISRAEL IS REFUSING TO OPEN THE RAFAH CROSSING WHILE AWAITING THE RETURN OF MORE DECEASED HOSTAGES FROM HAMAS.
THE DECISION TO ALLOW SOME AID IN, THOUGH, INDICATES ISRAEL IS MAINTAINING KEY COMPONENTS OF TRUMP'S CEASEFIRE DEAL FOR NOW.
SO WHAT HAPPENS NEXT IN TERMS OF IMPLEMENTING THE NEXT PHASE OF THE AGREEMENT?
LET'S BRING IN VETERAN DIPLOMAT AND FORMER PEACE NEGOTIATOR DENNIS ROSS, WHO JOINS ME FROM WASHINGTON, D. C. DENNIS, IT IS GOOD TO SEE YOU.
AND WE HEARD PRESIDENT TRUMP ASKED ABOUT THE STATE OF AFFAIRS AND THE INCREASED VIOLENCE THAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS NOTED, THE TWO IDF SOLDIERS KILLED BY HAMAS.
ISRAEL RESPONDING.
AND KILLING DOZENS OF PALESTINIANS.
BOTH SIDES BLAMING THE OTHER FOR VIOLATING THE CEASEFIRE.
PRESIDENT TRUMP, AS HE WAS MEETING WITH THE PRIME MINISTER OF AUSTRALIA, WAS ASKED ABOUT THE SITUATION, SAYING THE CEASEFIRE REMAINES IN PLACE AND ONCE AGAIN THREATENED TO ERADICATE HAMAS IF IT DOESN'T ABIDE BY THE AGREEMENT WITH ISRAEL.
FROM YOUR EXPERIENCE IN THE PAST WHAT'S THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUCH A FRAGILE TRUCE HOLDING, GIVEN THE HISTORY, ISRAEL'S LONGEST WAR, DEADLY WAR IN GAZA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE?
>> I DO SEE IT HOLDING FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MOSTLY BECAUSE PRESIDENT TRUMP WANTS TO PRESERVE IT.
TURKEY, QATAR AND EGYPT, WHO HAVE THE MAIN LEVERAGE ON HAMAS, WANT TO PRESERVE IT.
PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU IS NOT IN A POSITION TO SAY NO TO PRESIDENT TRUMP.
AND I THINK HE PROBABLY ALSO WANTS THE WAR TO BE OVER AT THIS POINT.
SO I THINK FOR THE TIME BEING THIS HOLDS.
I THINK HAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO TEST THE LIMITS OF IT.
IT DEPENDS ON THE NATURE OF THOSE TESTS.
THEY'RE TESTING IT IN ONE WAY BECAUSE THERE ARE STILL 16 BODIES THEY HAVE NOT YET TURNED OVER.
I HAVE NO DOUBT THAT SOME ARE REALLY HARD TO GET TO.
BUT THAT'S PROBABLY NOT THE CASE FOR ALL 16.
AND THEY HAVE BEEN SORT OF METING THEM OUT ALMOST INDIVIDUALLY AND MOSTLY UNDER PRESSURE.
SO THAT WILL BE ONE TEST.
THE OTHER IS WHAT WE JUST SAW.
YOU HAD A COUPLE OF HAMAS EMERGE WITH AN ANTI-TANK MISSILE AND FIRE IT AT ISRAELIS ON BULLDOZERS.
AND THAT'S WHAT LED TO THE KILLING OF TWO SOLDIERS AND THE SEVERE WOUNDING OF ANOTHER.
THE REAL ISSUE I THINK AT THIS POINT WILL BE HOW MUCH PRESSURE TURKEY, EGYPT AND QATAR PUT ON HAMAS AND ALSO WE'RE SEEING EXAMPLES OF THE PRESSURE THE U. S. IS PUTTING ON BECAUSE STEVE WITKOFF AND JARED KUSHNER ARE THERE.
APPARENTLY THE VICE PRESIDENT IS GOING TO GO THERE AS WELL.
THAT'S VERY MUCH I THINK FOCUSED ON KEEPING ISRAEL STICKING TO THE AGREEMENT, EVEN AS WHEN THE PRESIDENT SAYS HAMAS WILL PAY A TERRIBLE PRICE IF THEY DON'T FULFILL IT, THAT'S A KIND OF PUBLIC POSTURE OF THREATENING BUT AT THE SAME TIME HE ACCEPTED THE EXPLANATION THAT THESE WERE REBEL HAMAS ELEMENTS WHO ACTED YESTERDAY AND THEY WEREN'T IN FACT FOLLOWING ORDERS.
I THINK THAT GIVES THEM THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT.
IT REMINDS US THAT EVERYBODY SEEMS TO HAVE A STAKE IN WANTING TO PRESERVE THIS AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING.
>> THESE ACTIONS, THOUGH, CONTINUE.
I MEAN-I HEARD YOU SAY EARLIER THIS MORNING ON OUR AIR THAT HAMAS IS PLAYING GAMES, ESPECIALLY AS IT RELATES TO THE RETURN OF THE DECEASED HOSTAGES.
IT HAS BEEN REPORTED THAT IT WAS ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE THAT WAS PRESENTED TO BOTH TURKISH OFFICIALS AND QATARI OFFICIALS TO LET THEM KNOW THAT ISRAEL BELIEVES THAT HAMAS DOES KNOW THE WHEREABOUTS OF MORE OF THE REMAINS, THAT THEY'RE JUST NOT TURNING OVER.
IF YOU HAVE THAT FACTOR IN ADDITION TO WHAT YOU JUST NOTED AND THE PRESIDENT SEEMING TO ACCEPT THAT THESE ARE FRINGE ELEMENTS OF HAMAS WHO HAMAS LEADERSHIP DOESN'T NECESSARILY HAVE CONTROL OVER AT THIS POINT IN TERMS OF KILLING THE IDF SOLDIERS, IF WE SEE MORE AND MORE OF THIS HOW DOES A CEASEFIRE LIKE THIS HOLD?
DOES IT REALLY SPEAK TO THE STRENGTH AND INVOLVEMENT OF PRESIDENT TRUMP ALONE?
>> IF YOU KEEP HAVING KILLINGS, IT WILL NOT HOLD BECAUSE THEN THE PRESSURES WILL BUILD UP TO THE POINT WHERE NETANYAHU WILL TELL THE PRESIDENT, LOOK, WE CAN'T ENDURE A CASE WHERE WE'RE THERE, THEY'RE NOT FULFILLING THEIR PART OF THE DEAL AND WE'RE LOSING SOLDIERS.
SO THAT ACTUALLY WOULD BREAK IT DOWN.
BUT I THINK ONE OTHER POINT THAT SORT OF VALIDATES I THINK THE IDEA THAT HAMAS HAS BEEN PLAYING GAMES, AT LEAST WITH REGARD TO THE REMAINS.
THEY HAD NO DIFFICULTY FINDING ALL OF THE 20 WHO WERE ALIVE.
AND THEY WERE HELD BY DIFFERENT GROUPS WITHIN HAMAS, EVEN IN SOME CASES GROUPS OUTSIDE OF HAMAS LIKE ISLAMIC JIHAD.
THAT THEY WERE ABLE TO DETERMINE VERY QUICKLY.
AS I SAID, ARE THERE SOME OF THE BODIES, REMAINS THAT ARE PROBABLY BURIED AND DIFFICULT TO GET TO?
I'M SURE THAT'S TRUE.
BUT DOES THAT ACCOUNT FOR ALL 16?
I HIGHLY DOUBT THAT.
>> AND OF COURSE THE PSYCHOLOGICAL TOLL THAT THIS CONTINUES TO PLAY ON THOSE FAMILIES.
WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AS WELL.
WE SAW AN INTERVIEW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH JARED KUSHNER AND STEVE WITKOFF ON CBS'S "60 MINUTES," AND AN INTERESTING MOMENT WAS WHEN JARED KUSHNER SAID THIS ABOUT IMPLEMENTING PHASE 2.
I MEAN, IT WAS A HUGE ACCOMPLISHMENT TO GET PHASE 1 DONE, AND WE SEE HOW FRAGILE THAT REMAINS.
HERE'S WHAT HE SAID ABOUT PHASE 2.
HE SAID, "THE BIGGEST MESSAGE THAT WE'VE TRIED TO CONVEY TO THE ISRAELI LEADERSHIP NOW IS THAT NOW THE WAR'S OVER IF YOU WANT TO INTEGRATE ISRAEL WITH THE BROADER MIDDLE EAST YOU HAVE TO FIND A WAY TO HELP THE PALESTINIANS THRIVE AND DO BETTER. "
LESLEY STAHL ASKED HOW ARE YOU GOING TO DO THAT AND KUSHNER RESPONDED, "WE'RE JUST GETTING STARTED. "
SO LET ME ASK YOU, IF YOU WERE MEDIATING THIS DEAL RIGHT NOW AND GETTING TO PHASE 2 EFFECTIVELY, HOW DO YOU GET THAT STARTED WITHOUT A REPLACEMENT FOR HAMAS AND WITH HAMAS STILL CLEARLY SHOWING THAT THEY STILL WEIGH SOME --WIELD SOME POWER IN THE ENCLAVE?
>> LOOK, THE CRITICAL ISSUE RIGHT NOW IS TO BEGIN TO PUT IN PLACE THE ALTERNATIVE ADMINISTRATION.
THAT STARTS WITH THE BORDER PEACE.
IT IS REINFORCED BY HAVING THIS TECHNOCRATIC PALESTINIAN ADMINISTRATION.
AND IT IS FURTHER STRENGTHENED BY HAVING THE INTERNATIONAL STABILIZATION FORCE ALSO DEPLOY AT LEAST TO THE PLACES WHERE THE ISRAELIS HAVE WITHDRAWN FROM.
SO ALL THAT HAS TO BE IMPLEMENTED SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.
THAT CREATES SOME MOMENTUM ON ITS OWN.
IT ALSO PUTS HAMAS IN A POSITION WHERE IT DOESN'T WANT TO LOOK LIKE IT'S NOW TRYING TO BLOCK WHAT COULD BE THE WHOLE REHABILITATION, RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION EFFORT WITHIN GAZA.
UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES THAT THAT TAKES PLACE AND WHERE THE PALESTINIAN POPULATION IN GAZA FEELS IT'S PROTECTED, THEY WILL BE MUCH MORE PREPARED TO STAND UP AND PUT PRESSURE ON HAMAS AND HAMAS WILL FIND IT INCREASINGLY LESS TENABLE TO BE RESISTING ITS OWN PUBLIC AS OPPOSED TO LOOKING LIKE THEY'RE STILL OPPOSING THE ISRAELIS IN SOME FASHION.
>> WHAT YOU DON'T WANT TO SEE HAPPEN IS ISRAEL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE OCCUPYING FORCE IN GAZA AND THUS YOU HAVE THIS COUNCIL OF PEACE AND THE SIGNATORIES FROM OTHER ARAB AND MUSLIM COUNTRIES WHO AT LEAST ON PAPER ARE SAYING THEY'RE WILLING TO DEPLOY THEIR OWN FORCES.
YOU KNOW THIS REGION BETTER THAN MOST.
WHAT'S THE REALISTIC LIKELIHOOD THAT YOU COULD SEE OTHER ARAB SOLDIERS PATROLLING THE STREETS OF GAZA WHILE EVEN SOME ELEMENTS OF HAMAS REMAIN IN LEADERSHIP?
>> IT'S A REALLY GOOD QUESTION BECAUSE CERTAINLY HISTORICALLY WE WOULD NOT HAVE SEEN THAT KIND OF READINESS.
BUT I DO FEEL LIKE SOMETHING IS CHANGING.
ALL THE KEY ARAB STATES RIGHT NOW WANT THIS TO BE OVER.
IT ISN'T JUST THE MEDIATORS, MEANING QATAR AND EGYPT PLUS TURKEY.
IT'S NOT JUST THEM.
THE SAUDIS, THE EMIRATIS, THEY WANT THIS OVER.
AND ALSO THEY WANT TO DO RECONSTRUCTION BUT THEY WON'T DO RECONSTRUCTION, THEY WON'T INVEST IN RECONSTRUCTION IF HAMAS IS STILL IN CONTROL OR IF HAMAS ISN'T DISARMING.
SO THERE'S AN ENORMOUS STAKE THAT THEY COLLECTIVELY HAVE IN BEGINNING TO IMPLEMENT ALL 20 POINTS BUT STARTING SPECIFICALLY WITH BEING ABLE TO CREATE AN ALTERNATIVE ADMINISTRATION IN GAZA.
SO LONG AS YOU DON'T DO THAT YOU LEAVE A VACUUM.
AND THE VACUUM GETS FILLED.
AND UNFORTUNATELY IT GETS FILLED MOST LIKELY BY VIOLENCE.
SO THE KEY HERE IF YOU'RE REALLY GOING TO MOVE QUICKLY, IF YOU'RE REALLY GOING TO GIVE A GREATER CHANCE TO SUSTAINING THIS CEASEFIRE AND ENDING THE WAR, IS TO GET THAT COUNCIL OF PEACE, THE TECHNICAL ADMINISTRATION UP AND RUNNING, AND TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME PRESENCE FROM THE OUTSIDE THAT HAS ALSO A MILITARY CAPABILITY.
IF FOR NOTHING ELSE THAN JUST TO RE- ESTABLISH LAW AND ORDER.
IF FOR NOTHING ELSE BUT TO ENSURE THE DISTRIBUTION OF HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE IS GOING TO THE PEOPLE WHO MOST NEED IT, WHICH IS STILL NOT THE CASE EVEN TODAY.
>> THERE IS SO MUCH SAID ABOUT WHAT ISRAELI OFFICIALS, WHAT ALL OFFICIALS I GUESS SAY PUBLICLY AND THEN TO THEIR OWN DOMESTIC AUDIENCES AS WELL AND SHOULD ALL BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT BECAUSE THERE'S POLITICS, THERE'S THEATER INVOLVED AS WELL, AND AT THE END OF THE DAY WHAT'S MOST IMPORTANT IS THAT THERE ARE HUMAN LIVES AT STAKE.
AT ITS SURFACE PRESIDENT --OR PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU SAYS THAT HE WILL NEVER ACCEPT PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY LEADERSHIP OVER GAZA.
BUT WE KNOW THAT IN REALITY THAT THEY DO ACTUALLY WORK PRETTY CLOSELY, THE ISRAELIS WITH THE P. A. , ESPECIALLY AS IT INVOLVES THE WEST BANK.
DO YOU SEE AT LEAST A SITUATION WHERE IN THE INTERIM YOU DO SEE A LARGER PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY PRESENCE, MAYBE NOT MAHMOUD ABBAS- LED BUT JUST FROM A TECHNOCRATIC STANDPOINT DO YOU SEE A SITUATION WHERE WE COULD ENVISION MORE OF A P. A. AUTHORITY IN GAZA IN THE MONTHS TO COME?
>> LOOK, I SEE IT IN TWO PHASES.
IN THIS INITIAL PHASE WHATEVER IS SAID, WHEN YOU TAKE A LOOK AT THIS TECHNOCRATIC GOVERNMENT OR ADMINISTRATION, IT WILL INCLUDE PEOPLE FROM THE P. A. EVEN IF THEY'RE SORT OF PURELY TECHNICAL, FUNCTIONAL TYPES, NOT NECESSARILY POLITICAL TYPES, IT WILL INCLUDE THEM.
YOU WILL HAVE PALESTINIAN PARTICIPATION IN THE BOARD OF PEACE.
MAYBE EVEN SOMEONE FROM THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY ON THE BOARD OF PEACE.
THAT WILL BE IN THIS FIRST PHASE.
TO REALLY HAVE THE P. A. PLAY A MORE PROMINENT ROLE YOU REALLY HAVE TO SEE GENUINE REFORM IN THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY, WHICH WE HAVE NOT SEEN.
UNTIL WE SEE SOME GENUINE REFORM.
AND I MEASURE THAT IN TERMS OF APPOINTING A HIGHLY CREDIBLE, INDEPENDENT EMPOWERED PRIME MINISTER.
WE'VE SEEN IT DONE BEFORE, FROM 2007 TO 2012 SALAM FAYAD WAS APPOINTED OVER THE OPPOSITION, THE ACQUIESCENCE OF MAHMOUD ABBAS.
I THINK IN THE SECOND PHASE WE WILL SEE THAT.
SO THERE WILL BE SOME P. A. INVOLVEMENT EVEN IN THE EARLY FIRST PHASE.
OVER TIME IF THERE'S REAL REFORM WE'LL SEE MUCH MORE.
ULTIMATELY YOU CAN'T GET TO 19 OF THE 20 POINTS UNLESS YOU HAVE A REFORMED P. A.
>> AND SOMETIME IN THAT PERIOD WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE ISRAELI ELECTIONS AGAIN.
I MEAN AT THE VERY LEAST THIS TIME NEXT YEAR IF NOT SOONER.
DENNIS ROSS, REALLY GOOD TO SEE YOU.
THANK YOU SO MUCH.
>> MY PLEASURE.
>> NOW, THERE ARE MIXED REPORTS COMING OUT OF THE WHITE HOUSE ABOUT WHAT WENT ON BEHIND THE SCENES OF FRIDAY'S WHITE HOUSE MEETING WITH VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY.
ZELENSKYY IS SPINNING THE TALKS AS A SUCCESS, CALLING PRESIDENT TRUMP'S CALL TO FREEZE CURRENT BATTLE LINES A POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT.
BUT BOTH THE "FINANCIAL TIMES" AND REUTERS REPORT THAT OFF CAMERA THE MEETING DESCENDED INTO A SHOUTING MATCH WITH TRUMP TURNING DOWN KYIV'S CRITICAL REQUEST FOR LONG- RANGE TOMAHAWK MISSILES.
THE WHITE HOUSE MEETING CAME A DAY AFTER TRUMP SPOKE ON THE PHONE WITH VLADIMIR PUTIN AND AGREED TO MEET WITH HIM IN BUDAPEST SOMETIME SOON.
KURT VOLKER WAS AMERICA'S AMBASSADOR TO NATO AND FORMER SPECIAL ENVOY TO UKRAINE.
HE JOINS ME NOW TO HELP US SORT THROUGH THE CONFLICTING REPORTS.
WITHOUT READING THE REPORTS WORD FOR WORD HERE FOR YOU AND FOR OUR VIEWERS, I THINK THAT WAS A PRETTY GOOD SUMMATION, KURT, FROM THE "FINANCIAL TIMES" AND THE A. P. ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED ON FRIDAY BEHIND CLOSED DOORS.
NOTHING NEARLY AS SHOCKING AS WHAT WE SAW IN TERMS OF A BOTTOMING OUT OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TRUMP AND ZELENSKYY THE FIRST TIME THEY MET IN THE OVAL OFFICE.
BUT THIS WAS NOT THE MEETING THAT PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY WAS HOPING HE WOULD HAVE THIS TIME AROUND EITHER.
AND IT DOES SEEM THAT THAT PHONE CALL WITH VLADIMIR PUTIN SORT OF SPOILED THE MOMENTUM GOING INTO THIS MEETING.
HOW DID YOU INTERPRET, A, THE PHONE CALL WITH PUTIN AND, B, THE OUTCOME OF THE MEETING FRIDAY?
>> RIGHT.
WELL, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR HAVING ME.
I THINK THAT FIRST OFF, THE OUTCOME, LET'S START WITH THAT.
THE OUTCOME IS NOT WHAT PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY WAS LOOKING FOR, BUT IT'S ALSO FINE.
WE BASICALLY ARE WHERE WE HAVE BEEN FOR A LONG TIME.
PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS DANGLING THE IDEA OF SENDING TOMAHAWK MISSILES TO UKRAINE TO TRY TO GET PUTIN TO RE-ENGAGE AND TO NEGOTIATE, STRIKE A DEAL, AND SO FORTH.
THAT SEEMS TO BE THE WAY PRESIDENT TRUMP PLAYED THIS.
PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY REALLY WANTED THE TOMAHAWKS.
AND I THINK THE WAY TO PLAY IT WOULD HAVE BEEN PROVIDE THE TOMAHAWKS WITH A COMMITMENT FROM UKRAINE NOT TO USE THEM IF PUTIN AGREES TO A CEASEFIRE.
BUT PRESIDENT TRUMP WANTED TO HOLD BACK FOR NOW AND SEE IF HE CAN ENGAGE WITH PUTIN.
SO THIS IS ABOUT WHERE WE'VE BEEN.
WHERE IT GOES FROM HERE, YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE RUBIO TEEING UP A MEETING OF TRUMP AND PUTIN.
HE'S GOING TO MEET WITH LAVROV AT SOME POINT IN THE COMING WEEK OR SO.
AND I HAVE A FEELING WHAT WE'RE GOING TO DISCOVER IS PUTIN IS NOT CHANGING HIS POSITION AT ALL.
HE STILL HAS MAXIMALIST DOEMDS.
IST DEMANDS.
AND THIS DOES NOT SET THE STAGE FOR A PRODUCTIVE MEETING WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP.
AND I THINK WE'RE GOING TO BE FACED WITH THE SAME SITUATION WE'VE BEEN IN TIME AND AGAIN WHERE WE ACTUALLY NEED TO PUT MORE PRESSURE ON PUTIN TO GET HIM TO DO A DEAL.
>> IT DID SEEM LIKE COMING OUT OF THE MEETING A FEW MONTHS AGO, I THINK IT WAS A 3 1/2 OR 4- HOUR MEETING, WHICH IS TYPICAL AT TIMES WITH VLADIMIR PUTIN- W STEVE WITKOFF THAT THERE WAS A MISCOMMUNICATION OR MISINTERPRETATION LITERALLY I THINK WITKOFF CAME WITHOUT HIS OWN TRANSLATOR AND RELIED ON VLADIMIR PUTIN'S, BUT ESSENTIALLY WAS IF WE GIVE UP THE REGIONS, THE DONBAS REGION, FREEZE THE FIGHTING THERE, BOTH SIDES WILL ACCEPT THE SITUATION.
SORT OF THE TERRITORIAL SWAP THAT HE EXPLAINED IN A SUBSEQUENT INTERVIEW, THAT THAT LED TO THE ALASKA MEETING.
BUT PRESIDENT TRUMP WALKED OUT PRETTY DISCOURAGED FROM THAT MEETING WITH VLADIMIR PUTIN, SAYING HE WASN'T GIVING AS MUCH LATITUDE AS HAD BEEN PROJECTED.
I'D LIKE TO PLAY SOUND FROM THE PRESIDENT OVER THE WEEKEND ON THIS ISSUE OF TERRITORIAL SWAPS.
>> LET IT BE CUT THE WAY IT IS CUT UP RIGHT NOW.
I THINK 78% OF THE LAND IS ALREADY TAKEN BY RUSSIA.
YOU LEAVE IT THE WAY IT IS RIGHT NOW.
THEY CAN --THEY CAN NEGOTIATE SOMETHING LATER ON DOWN THE LINE.
BUT I SAID CUT AND STOP AT THE BATTLE LINE, GO HOME, STOP FIGHTING, STOP KILLING PEOPLE.
>> SO THAT'S FREEZING THE FIGHTING ON THE BATTLEFIELD WHERE IT IS RIGHT NOW.
WITH VLADIMIR PUTIN ESSENTIALLY WANTS IS LAND HE DOESN'T EVEN CONTROL AT THIS POINT.
DO YOU THINK FROM EVERYTHING YOU KNOW ABOUT WHERE VLADIMIR PUTIN IS RIGHT NOW OVER THREE YEARS INTO THIS WAR THAT HE WOULD BE WILLING TO JUST STOP AND ACCEPT THE CURRENT DYNAMICS ON THE BATTLEFIELD AS THEY ARE?
>> NOT YET, NO.
HE THINKS HE CAN STILL GET MORE.
AND SO HE WANTS TO KEEP FIGHTING TO GET MORE AND HE WANTS TO SEE THROUGH THESE BLUFFING TACTICS IN NEGOTIATIONS WHETHER HE CAN CONVINCE TRUMP OR OTHERS TO PUT PRESSURE ON UKRAINE TO GIVE HIM MORE.
IT WAS INTERESTING THE WAY PRESIDENT TRUMP PHRASED THAT.
HE SAID HE'S GOT 78%.
HE'S REFERRING TO PUTIN HAVING 78% OF THE TERRITORY THAT RUSSIA CLAIMS TO HAVE ANNEXED.
MEANING THAT THEY HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO TAKE EVERYTHING THEY WANT.
AND HE'S SAYING STOP NOW AND THEN NEGOTIATE FOR MORE LATER.
THAT IS IN MY VIEW UPSIDE DOWN.
THIS IS NOT THE WAY TO LOOK AT IT.
PUTIN HAS TAKEN ABOUT 20% OF UKRAINIAN TERRITORY.
UKRAINE WANTS TO GET IT BACK.
BUT UKRAINE IS WILLING TO SETTLE FOR A CEASEFIRE AS IS.
WHICH IS A MAJOR CONCESSION FROM UKRAINE IF THEY WERE TO DO THAT.
>> OKAY.
SO LOOKING AHEAD, YOU MENTIONED THAT BEFORE THERE WOULD BE ANY MEETING BETWEEN PRESIDENT TRUMP AND PRESIDENT PUTIN THAT YOU WOULD HAVE THEIR REPRESENTATIVES, THIS BEING SECRETARY OF STATE RUBIO AND HIS COUNTERPART SERGEI LAVROV MEETING BEFORE THEM.
MANY ARE VIEWING THIS AS A POSITIVE IN THE SENSE THAT SECRETARY RUBIO HAS LONG BEEN MORE OF A HAWK ON RUSSIA AND HAS FAVORED UKRAINE'S POSITION MORE THAN EVEN SOME OF THE OTHER MEMBERS OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S TEAM AND HIS CABINET.
DO YOU ENVISION A SCENARIO WHERE SOMETHING COULD BE WORKED OUT OR AGREED UPON BETWEEN RUBIO AND LAVROV THAT COULD TURN A POTENTIAL MEETING IN BUDAPEST INTO A MORE EFFECTIVE ONE THAN WE SAW IN ALASKA?
>> WELL, THE HONEST ANSWER IS NO, I DON'T EXPECT THAT.
I EXPECT THE RUSSIANS TO MAINTAIN THEIR MAXIMALIST POSITION, WHICH WILL PROBABLY MEAN THERE'S NO BASIS FOR A TRUMP- PUTIN MEETING AND THEREFORE THAT GETS POSTPONED.
I WOULDN'T --I WOULDN'T AGREE THAT RUBIO'S GOING TO BE TOUGHER AND THAT WILL YIELD A BETTER RESULT.
ULTIMATELY, WHETHER IT'S WITKOFF OR RUBIO, THE DECISION MAKER IS TRUMP.
HE'S THE ONE WHO'S GOING TO DECIDE WHERE TO GO AS THE NEXT STEP.
THE PROBLEM WITH THE ALASKA MEETING IS THAT WITKOFF DIDN'T GET IT RIGHT.
HE DIDN'T UNDERSTAND WHAT HE HEARD FROM PUTIN, REPORTED IT AS THOUGH THERE WAS A TRADE OF TERRITORY IN THE WORKS, RUSSIA GETS ALL OF DONBAS BUT PULLS OUT OF TWO OTHER PROVINCES.
THAT'S NOT WHAT VLADIMIR PUTIN CAME TO THE TABLE WITH.
HE SAYS HE KEEPS EVERYTHING HE'S GOT AND HE GETS THE UKRAINIANS TO GIVE HIM MORE.
THAT'S CLEARLY WHAT WENT WRONG.
IT'S CLEARLY WHAT GOT PRESIDENT TRUMP UPSET AT THAT MEETING.
AND WHY THEY CALLED IT SHORT.
RUBIO WON'T MAKE THAT MISTAKE.
RUBIO WILL GET IT RIGHT IN TERMS OF WHAT THE RUSSIANS ARE SAYING.
BUT UNFORTUNATELY, THERE'S NO REASON TO THINK THAT PUTIN WANTS ANYTHING OTHER THAN ALL OF THE DONBAS INCLUDING TERRITORY HE'S NOT BEEN ABLE TO CONQUER AS WELL AS THE LAUNDRY LIST OF OTHER DEMANDS THAT HE HAS SUCH AS THE CHANGE IN THE UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT, DEMILITARIZATION OF UKRAINE, PERMANENT NEUTRALITY OF UKRAINE, AND RECOGNITION AS RUSSIAN ALL OF THE LAND THAT RUSSIA HAS TAKEN.
>> AND THAT'S JUST --THAT'S A NON-STARTER FOR UKRAINE, I WOULD IMAGINE THAT'S A NON-STARTER EVEN IF YOU ASKED PRESIDENT TRUMP TODAY.
IT WAS REPORTED -- >> NO EUROPEAN LEADER CAN LIVE WITH THAT PRECEDENT OF THAT YOU CONQUER BY FORCE, YOU GET TO KEEP IT AND IT'S LEGITIMIZED.
THAT SETS THE STAGE FOR WAR ALL OVER EUROPE.
>> WELL, THAT BRINGS ME TO THE EUROPE QUESTION BECAUSE THE PRESIDENT LIKES TO COMPARE HIS SUCCESS IN GAZA TO POTENTIAL SUCCESS IN UKRAINE.
AND THESE ARE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SITUATIONS, COMPLETELY DIFFERENT DYNAMICS AND PLAYERS.
WHAT COULD PERHAPS, THOUGH, BE A COMMONALITY IS IF PRESIDENT TRUMP DECIDES TO LEAD THAT EFFORT IN UKRAINE THE WAY HE HAS LED AND AS YOU HEARD FROM THE PREVIOUS SEGMENT ONLY HE COULD HAVE ACHIEVED THE WAY THE UNITED STATES DID, SHOWING ITS POWER THERE AND TELLING BOTH SIDES, ALL SIDES IN THAT WAR THAT THEY NEED TO COMPROMISE TO GET TO SOME SORT OF CEASEFIRE.
WE AREN'T SEEING PRESIDENT TRUMP PLAY THAT DRIVING ROLE HERE.
AND HE'S RELINQUISHING A LOT OF THAT TO THE EUROPEANS.
HE'S SAID FROM THE BEGINNING THIS ISN'T MY WAR, THIS IS EUROPE'S WAR.
HE'S AGREED TO SELL ARMS AND WEAPONS TO EUROPEANS THAT WOULD THEN BE TRANSFERRED TO UKRAINE.
AND THE "FINANCIAL TIMES" WRITES THAT EUROPEAN LEADERS OUT OF FRIDAY'S MEETINGS WERE NOT OPTIMISTIC BUT PRAGMATIC WITH PLANNING NEXT STEPS.
AND ON THE HEELS OF THAT THE E. U. FOREIGN POLICY CHIEF CALLA KALLAS SAID THIS.
SHE SAID WE SEE PRESIDENT TRUMP'S EFFORTS TO BRING PEACE TO UKRAINE, OF COURSE ALL OF THESE EFFORTS ARE WELCOMED.
BUT WE DON'T SEE RUSSIA REALLY WANTING PEACE.
RUSSIA ONLY UNDERSTANDS STRENGTH AND ONLY NEGOTIATES WHEN IT'S REALLY PUT TO NEGOTIATE.
SO RIGHT NOW WE DON'T SEE THAT.
ESSENTIALLY, SHE'S SAYING, YOU KNOW, AMERICA'S NOT DOING EVERYTHING IT CAN.
SO WHAT CAN THE EUROPEANS DO WITHOUT THAT ROLE FROM THE U. S. ?
>> WELL, THERE ARE THINGS THAT ALL OF US CAN DO INCLUDING THE U. S. BUT FROM - -JUST FROM THE EUROPEAN SIDE THEY COULD FINISH THE JOB IN SEIZING THE FROZEN RUSSIAN ASSETS AND CONVERTING THAT INTO FUNDS AVAILABLE TO UKRAINE FOR THE PURCHASE OF WEAPONS FOR SUSTAINING THEIR FINANCES AND DO THIS OVER A COUPLE OF YEARS.
THEY COULD GO AHEAD AND DEPLOY A COALITION OF THE WILLING TO UKRAINIAN TERRITORY FOR TRAINING, EQUIPPING, AND ASSISTANCE WITH AIR DEFENSE.
RIGHT NOW JOKINGLY SOME PEOPLE REFER TO THIS AS A COALITION OF THE WAITING.
THEY'RE STILL NOT DOING IT.
THEY'RE JUST TALKING ABOUT IT.
IT COULD BE DONE NOW.
A THIRD THING IS TO WORK AT NATO TO INTEGRATE UKRAINIAN AND NATO AIR DEFENSES AND EXTEND NATO'S AIR DEFENSE ZONE BY 150 KILOMETERS OR SO OVER WESTERN UKRAINE TOGETHER WITH UKRAINE.
THIS WOULD MAKE AIRSPACE SAFER FOR NATO COUNTRIES BECAUSE RUSSIA'S BEEN VIOLATING THEM RGLY.
AND IT WOULD ALSO PROVIDE SOME ASSISTANCE TO UKRAINE IN PROTECTING ITS CIVILIAN POPULATIONS.
>> IN TERMS OF WHAT THE U. S. HAS LEFT ON THE TABLE, IT'S RARE YOU SEE BIPARTISANSHIP.
WE'RE IN WEEK 3 1/2 NOW OF A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN.
BUT YOU DO I BELIEVE HAVE 85 SIGNATORIES TO A TOUGH SANCTIONS PACKAGE THAT'S JUST AWAITING THE PRESIDENT'S SIGNATURE AGAINST RUSSIA.
NOW, THERE'S QUESTION AS TO THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THAT.
BUT JUST THE MESSAGE ALONE THAT THAT SENDS TO RUSSIA WOULD BE A CHANGE, ESPECIALLY FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP.
WHY DO YOU THINK HE HASN'T AS OF YET?
>> RIGHT.
WELL, PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS STILL GOT HIS EYES FOCUSED ON THE DEAL.
HE DOESN'T WANT TO BE IN THE MODE OF CONFRONTATION.
HE WANTS TO BE IN THE MODE OF GETTING A DEAL.
SO ADDING ON MORE PRESSURE, SANCTIONS, TOMAHAWKS, ET CETERA, HE THINKS WILL MAKE IT HARDER TO GET A DEAL.
AND PARTLY HE THINKS THAT BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT VLADIMIR PUTIN TELLS HIM.
BUT I THINK THE REALITY IS THAT HE NEEDS TO ACTUALLY PULL THE TRIGGER ON THESE MEASURES, PUT SECONDARY SANCTIONS IN PLACE, GIVE UKRAINE THE TOMAHAWKS WITH THE PROMISE NOT TO FIRE IF THE RUSSIANS AGREE TO A CEASEFIRE IN ORDER TO RAISE THE STAKES TO GET PUTIN TO ACTUALLY AGREE.
BUT PRESIDENT TRUMP IS THINKING ABOUT IT DIFFERENTLY RIGHT NOW.
HE'S REALLY TRYING TO GET THE DEAL AND PUTIN IS USING THAT DESIRE, IS USING PRESIDENT TRUMP'S DESIRE TO GET A DEAL TO GET HIM TO BACK OFF OF TOUGHER MEASURES.
>> AND TO BUY HIMSELF MORE TIME TOO, WHICH HE'S BEEN SUCCESSFUL IN THUS DOING.
KURT VOLKER, ALWAYS GOOD TO SEE YOU.
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING THE SHOW.
WE APPRECIATE IT.
>> THANK YOU.
> >> AND NEXT, TO A NEW PODCAST THAT ASKS SOME PROVOCATIVE QUESTIONS.
CAN MUSIC BECOME A WEAPON OF POLITICAL RESISTANCE?
AND CAN MUSIC ACTUALLY CHANGE THE WORLD?
THE PODCAST IS CALLED "FELA KUTI: FEAR NO MAN. "
AND OVER 12 HIGHLY DANCEABLE EPISODES HOST JAD ABUMRAD TELLS THE STORY OF FELA KUTI, THE PIONEER OF AFROBEAT MUSIC WHOSE MUSIC CHALLENGED NIGERIA'S GOVERNMENT AND TRANSFORMED AFRICAN CULTURE.
ABUM RAD CREATED THE ADDICTIVE PUBLIC RADIO SERIES "RADIOLAB. "
HE ALSO MADE THE AWARD- WINNING PODCAST ABOUT ANOTHER LEGENDARY MUSICIAN, "DOLLY PARTON'S AMERICA. "
SO JAD, WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.
THIS WAS ONE OF THOSE STORIES WHERE I HAD NEVER BEEN FAMILIAR WITH THIS SUBJECT AND, YOU KNOW, MY CO-HOST FOR MY OTHER SHOW IS OF NIGERIAN HERITAGE AND AS SOON AS I TOLD HER ABOUT THIS SHE WAS SO EXCITED.
SHE'S LIKE OH MY GOSH, DO YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT AN IMPACT HE HAD IN NIGERIA.
I SENT HER YOUR PODCAST.
SO YOU GOT ANOTHER LISTENER RIGHT THEN AND THERE.
BUT I REALLY ENJOYED SPENDING TIME OVER THE WEEKEND GETTING TO KNOW A BIT MORE ABOUT FELA KUTI.
IF YOU COULD TELL OUR VIEWERS ABOUT WHO HE WAS AND WHAT DREW YOU TO HIS STORY, ESPECIALLY NOW.
>> YEAH.
BIANNA, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR HAVING ME ON.
I MEAN, FELA IS ONE OF THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL, CONTROVERSIAL FIGURES THAT WE HAVE IN MUSIC.
ON THE MOST BASIC LEVEL HE IS A NIGERIAN, OR WAS I ANIGERIAN MUSICIAN WHO MADE MUSIC FROM THE 1960s TO THE LATE '90s.
HE INVENTED A STYLE OF MUSIC CALLED AFROBEAT THAT WAS NOT JUST GREAT DANCE MUSIC.
IT WAS NOT JUST THE KIND OF MUSIC YOU PUT ON AT A PARTY AND GOT THE PARTY STARTED.
BUT IT REALLY BECAME THE CATALYST FOR A POLITICAL MOVEMENT THAT ALMOST TOPPLED A DICTATORSHIP.
AND SO WHAT DREW ME TO THE STORY OF FELA BUT NOT JUST HIS STORY, THE STORY OF HIS FAMILY, THE STORY OF NIGERIA WRIT LARGE, IS BECAUSE I --I'M SOMEBODY WHO --I MEAN, I GOT INTO PODCASTING THROUGH MUSIC.
SO I LOVE MUSIC.
I THINK IT'S SO SPECIAL AND IMPORTANT.
BUT I LOOK AROUND THE WORLD RIGHT NOW AND I SEE MADNESS IN ALL DIRECTIONS.
AS SOMEBODY WHO LOVES MUSIC I FIND MYSELF ASKING LIKE WHAT IS THE POINT OF MUSIC NOW?
IT FEELS LIKE THE MUSIC THAT WE MAKE SHOULDN'T JUST BE AESTHETICS, IT SHOULD REALLY DO SOMETHING.
AND FELA IS REALLY A CASE STUDY IN A MUSICIAN WHO MADE MUSIC THAT MATTERED.
HIS MUSIC WAS AS YOU SAID IN THE INTRODUCTION A WEAPON THAT CHALLENGED AUTHORITY.
AND THAT FOR ME IS THE KIND OF STORY I JUST REALLY NEED TO HEAR RIGHT NOW.
>> OKAY.
SO I THINK WE'VE PIQUED OUR LISTENERS' AND VIEWERS' INTEREST ENOUGH TO PLAY SOME OF FELA'S MUSIC FOR THEM.
AND LET'S LISTEN TO ONE OF HIS MOST FAMOUS SONGS, "ZOMBIE" FROM 1976.
FOR RIGHTS REASONS THIS IS JUST A SHORT CLIP FOR A MUCH LONGER SONG.
?
?
IT'S HARD TO ACTUALLY HEAR THE WORDS BUT FELA IS SINGING IN PIDGIN ENGLISH.
THE IDEA THAT A ZOMBIE WILL DO WHATEVER YOU TELL IT TO DO.
THAT WAS A METAPHOR REALLY FOR NIGERIA'S ARMED FORCES.
JUST TALK ABOUT THE POWER AND IMPACT OF THAT SONG ALONE.
>> YEAH, THAT SONG IS REALLY PRETTY EXTRAORDINARY.
I MEAN, BASICALLY THE LYRICS SAY THAT, YOU KNOW, AS YOU ALLUDED TO THE ARMED FORCES IN NIGERIA, IF YOU TELL THEM TO GO LEFT THEY'LL GO LEFT.
IF YOU TELL THEM TO GO RIGHT THEY'LL GO RIGHT.
IF YOU TELL THEM TO KILL THEY WILL KILL.
IF YOU TELL THEM TO DIE THEY WILL DIE.
SO IT'S BASICALLY CALLING THE NIGERIAN MILITARY BRAINLESS ZOMBIES.
WHAT'S INTERESTING ABOUT THAT SONG IS WHEN HE CAME OUT WITH THAT IN 1976 HE WOULD PLAY IT AT HIS CLUB THE SHRINE AND THERE WAS AN ARMY BARRACKS JUST DOWN THE STREET FROM THE SHRINE.
SO A LOT OF SOLDIERS WOULD COME TO THAT CLUB.
HE WOULD SING IT TO THE SOLDIERS IN THE CROWD, BASICALLY SAYING THAT YOU'RE A BUNCH OF DROIDS AND YOU HAVE NO MIND OF YOUR OWN.
AND HE WOULD DO THIS SORT OF DANCE ON STAGE WHERE HE WOULD SORT OF GOOSE- STEP AROUND AND TAKE HIS SAX AND PUT IT UNDER HIS SHOULDER AND LIKE AS IF HE'S SORT OF HOLDING A RIFLE.
AND SO IT WAS SORT OF LIKE POKING FUN AT THE MILITARY.
BUT AS YOU CAN IMAGINE, IN A COUNTRY WHERE THE MILITARY REALLY IS THE LAW THEY DID NOT TAKE KINDLY TO THIS.
AND SOME PEOPLE WILL MAKE THE ARGUMENT THAT IT WAS THAT SONG THAT DIRECTLY LED TO THE MILITARY RAIDING HIS COMPOUND, APPARENTLY 1,000 SOLDIERS ENCIRCLING THE COMPOUND, POURING GASOLINE ON THE THING AND BURNING IT TO THE GROUND.
BECAUSE OF A SONG.
BECAUSE OF MUSIC.
AND THAT IS --I DON'T WANT TO ROMANTICIZE THAT KIND OF VIOLENCE.
BUT IT'S AMAZING TO ME THAT A SONG COULD ENRAGE -- I MEAN, WHAT WOULD IT TAKE TO ENRAGE THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TO THE EXTENT THAT THEY WOULD WANT TO BURN THE HOUSE DOWN OF THE SINGER WHO SANG IT?
IT'S KIND OF A FASCINATING QUESTION.
SO THAT'S --LIKE THAT SONG FOR ME HOLDS A LOT OF ENERGY ABOUT WHAT MUSIC CAN DO IN A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT ENVIRONMENT.
>> AND TURN HIM INTO AN EVEN MORE POWERFUL VOICE AND FIGURE OF RESISTANCE IN THE COUNTRY ESSENTIALLY BY DOING THAT.
LET'S PLAY A CLIP FROM THE PODCAST DESCRIBING THAT RAID THAT ALSO WE SHOULD NOTE KILLED HIS MOTHER ULTIMATELY.
THESE FORCES THREW HER LITERALLY OUT OF THE WINDOW.
LET'S PLAY THAT SOUND.
>> OVER AND OVER, THE NIGERIAN POLICE AND ARMY BROKE HIS ARMS, HIS LEGS, HIS FACE.
>> YOU KNOW, THEY THREW HIS MOTHER FROM THE ROOF OF HER HOUSE AND SHE DIED.
>> THREW MY MOTHER OUT THE WINDOW!
>> HE WENT AND TOOK HIS MOTHER'S COFFIN AND PUT IT ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE GOVERNMENT BUILDING, THE CAPITAL BUILDING.
>> NO MATTER WHAT THEY DID HE NEVER BACKED DOWN.
>> IF YOU THINK I'M GOING TO CHANGE OR COMPROMISE, THEY'RE MAKING ME STRONGER.
>> I MEAN, I THINK IT'S THAT LAST LINE THAT REALLY MAKES HIM STAND OUT.
IT DIDN'T CHANGE HIM.
IT DIDN'T MAKE HIM STAND DOWN.
IT ONLY EMPOWERED HIM AND ENRAGED HIM EVEN MORE.
>> ABSOLUTELY.
AND IT FUELED HIS CREATIVITY.
BIANNA, ONE OF THE MOST INTERESTING THINGS I FIND ABOUT FELA IS HE WOULD DO THINGS TO DELIBERATELY PROVOKE THE GOVERNMENT.
OFTEN THEN THE GOVERNMENT WOULD THEN RAID HIS HOUSE.
HE WOULD THEN RELEASE A SONG ABOUT THAT RAID VIRTUALLY THE NEXT DAY, WHICH WOULD CREATE ANOTHER RAID, WHICH THEN HE WOULD CAPTURE IN A SONG.
SO I DON'T WANT TO SAY THAT HE PROVOKED THE VIOLENCE IN ORDER TO CREATE MUSIC OUT OF IT, BUT IT WAS SOME KIND OF INFINITY LOOP THAT WAS HAPPENING THERE THAT THE MORE THEY CAME AFTER HIM, LITERALLY THE MORE MUSIC HE MADE.
WHICH CREATED MORE CONFRONTATION.
SO IT'S A REALLY INTERESTING CYCLE THAT HE BECAME A PART OF THAT IN MANY WAYS STILL CONTINUES TO THIS DAY.
26, 27 YEARS AFTER HIS DEATH.
ACTUALLY, THAT NUMBER IS WRONG.
BUT HE IS STILL CREATING THAT KIND OF ENERGY.
>> WELL, AND THE FACT THAT HIS MUSIC AND HIS LYRICS SPOKE SO MUCH ABOUT HIS OWN HUMANITY, THE SUFFERING TO THE PEOPLE, ABOUT GOVERNMENT ABUSE AND OVERREACH, WHAT'S SO INTERESTING ABOUT THAT, AND YOU DOCUMENT THIS BRILLIANTLY IN THIS PODCAST SERIES, IS THAT HE DIDN'T START OUT THAT WAY.
HE DIDN'T START OUT NOT AS SOMEBODY WHO WAS GOING TO CHANGE THE WORLD OR CHANGE THE COUNTRY BUT AS SOMEONE WHO WAS A CLASSICALLY TRAINED MUSICIAN WHO ONE OF HIS --ONE OF HIS INFLUENCES EARLY ON IN HIS LIFE WHEN HE VISITED THE UNITED STATES WAS SO MOVED BY HIS PERFORMANCE OF ONE SONG SHE WENT UP TO HIM AND ASKED HIM, THAT MUST HAVE BEEN ABOUT SOMETHING SO, SO POWERFUL, TELL ME ABOUT THAT, WHAT DROVE YOU, WHAT WERE YOU SINGING ABOUT, AND HE SAID SOUP.
AND SHE'S LIKE, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
AND HE SAID NO, LIKE THE SOUP THAT YOU EAT, THE EDIBLE SOUP.
SO TO GO FROM SOUP TO WHAT HIS LYRICS AND SONGS REALLY REPRESENTED TOWARD THE END OF HIS LIFE IS QUITE STUNNING.
SO THAT LEADS ME TO AGAIN WE'RE GOING TO INVITE EVERYONE TO LISTEN TO THIS PODCAST TO GET A REAL SENSE OF THE MAN AND HIS INFLUENCE.
BUT IF SOMEONE WERE TO ASK YOU LIKE WHO IS HE SIMILAR TO, DESCRIBE HIM, YOU'RE ASKED THAT, OR YOU ASK THAT QUESTION IN THE PODCAST, LET'S PLAY A CLIP OF THAT.
>> FELA IS LIKE BOB MARLEY AND MANDELA COMBINED.
>> WELL, HE WAS KIND OF LIKE MICK JAGGER AND JAMES BROWN.
>> DEFINITELY WITH SOME MUHAMMAD ALI THROWN IN.
>> AND THEN WITH THE PROTEST ELEMENT OF DYLAN.
>> DON'T FORGET MALCOLM X. HE WANTED TO BE MALCOLM X. ?
BROTHERS AND SISTERS ?
?
THE SECRET OF LIFE IS TO HAVE NO FEAR ?
>> SO IS THAT HOW YOU CAME TO KNOW HIM AS WELL, SORT OF A BOB DYLAN MEETS MANDELA MEETS MUHAMMAD ALI MEETS JAMES BROWN?
>> I MEAN, THAT'S WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU TRY TO DESCRIBE HIM TO PEOPLE.
BECAUSE WE REALLY HAVE NO FIGURE LIKE HIM IN THE WEST.
I CAME TO KNOW HIM JUST GOING TO PARTIES AND SOMEONE WOULD PLAY HIS RECORD AND BE LIKE DAMN, WHAT IS THIS?
THEN YOU GET TO TRY TO KNOW THE GUY BEHIND THE MUSIC.
AND THAT'S WHEN YOU RUN INTO THE WORD SALAD OF TRYING TO DESCRIBE SOMEBODY WHO REALLY IS JUST UNSUMMARIZABLE.
EXCEPT IN THIS KIND OF PASTICHE OF OTHER FIGURES.
BUT HE WAS KIND OF --I MEAN, YOU KNOW, YOU MENTIONED THAT I DID THE DOLLY PARTON SERIES BEFORE THIS.
I LOVE MUSICIANS WHO DEFY ALL THE CATEGORIES.
YOU CANNOT PUT THEM IN ANY ONE PLACE.
THERE ARE VERY FEW MUSICIANS, I THINK, WHO FIT THAT.
I MEAN, DOLLY'S CERTAINLY ONE.
AND FELA ABSOLUTELY IS DEFINITELY A GUY YOU SIMPLY CAN'T PUT HIM IN ANY ONE PLACE.
HE IS SORT OF EVERYTHING.
>> WELL, AGAIN, I AM ABOUT FOUR OR FIVE EPISODES DEEP INTO THIS PODCAST.
I TOLD MY KIDS, I SAID GIVE ME A FEW HOURS, I NEED TO GO FOR A WALK, AND I'M LISTENING.
AND IT WAS ONE OF THE GREATEST THINGS I DID THIS WEEKEND.
AND I PROMISE OUR VIEWERS THEY WILL REALLY ENJOY GETTING TO KNOW MORE ABOUT WHO THIS MAN WAS.
HIS INFLUENCE AND JUST LISTENING TO THE GREAT SOUND AS WELL.
JAD ABUMRAD, THANK YOU.
>> THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR HAVING ME ON.
> >> NOW, IT WAS A MOMENT THAT SENT THE U. S. AND THE WORLD REALLY INTO A PANIC AND DREW THE ROARING '20s TO A CLOSE.
THE 1929 WALL STREET CRASH WAS THE MOST DEVASTATING IN HISTORY.
AND IT EVENTUALLY BROUGHT ABOUT THE GREAT DEPRESSION.
THAT'S THE FOCUS OF ANDREW ROSS SORKIN'S NEW BOOK.
AND HE SPEAKS TO WALTER ISAACSON ABOUT IT AND WHAT WE CAN LEARN FROM 1929 NEARLY A CENTURY LATER.
>> ANDREW ROSS SORKIN, WELCOME BACK TO THE SHOW.
>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME, WALTER.
>> YOU WRITE ABOUT THE 1929 CRASH IN THIS BOOK AND YOU SAY IT'S ONE OF THE MOST LARGELY MISUNDERSTOOD SIGNIFICANT EVENTS.
WHY WAS IT MISUNDERSTOOD?
>> I THINK THERE'S TWO THINGS.
ONE IS MOST AMERICANS UNFORTUNATELY HAVE ONLY A VAGUE CONCEPTION THAT SOMETHING BAD HAPPENED IN 1929 AND THAT WHATEVER HAPPENED IN 1929 LED TO THE GREAT DEPRESSION.
I THINK THAT'S THE SORT OF PREVAILING VIEW AND BY THE WAY WAS MY VIEW BEFORE I INVESTED THE LAST EIGHT YEARS OF MY LIFE IN THE ARCHIVES WRITING THIS BOOK.
REALLY THE CRASH OF 1929 WAS SO MUCH MORE BECAUSE YES, IT LED TO THE GREAT DEPRESSION.
BUT THE NUMBER OF DOMINOS THAT DID BEGIN IN 1929 AND WHAT THOSE DOMINOS WERE I THINK WILL SURPRISE A LOT OF AMERICANS AND A LOT OF READERS.
>> DOES THAT MEAN THAT WE COULD HAVE HAD THE 1929 CRASH BUT NOT THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF 1930?
>> OH, ABSOLUTELY.
SO THE CRASH IN 1929, WHICH IS REALLY ONLY PART OF THIS BOOK, WAS THE FIRST DOMINO.
AND IT TOOK THE NEXT DOMINO AND THE DOMINO AFTER THAT TO ULTIMATELY GET US TO THE GREAT DEPRESSION.
BUT THERE WERE SO MANY MISTAKES AND FRANKLY BAD DECISIONS ALONG THE WAY THAT LED US TO THE GREAT DEPRESSION.
AND IN FACT, I ARGUE THAT YOU COULD LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENED EVEN IN 2008 IN THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ONE OF THE REASONS THAT WE DIDN'T GO INTO A GREAT DEPRESSION IS I LIKE TO BELIEVE THAT WE LEARNED AT LEAST SOME OF BUT CLEARLY NOT ALL OF THE LESSONS.
>> YOU TALK ABOUT 2008.
YOU WROTE A GREAT BOOK ABOUT IT, "TOO BIG TO FAIL," WHICH WAS THE LEHMAN BROTHERS COLLAPSE, AND THE PROBLEMS OF 2008.
WHAT WAS DIFFERENT ABOUT 2008 AND 1929?
>> OH, GOODNESS, SO MANY THINGS.
LOOK, 1929, THE 1920s THERE WAS NO REGULATIONS.
ZERO.
THE S. E. C. DID NOT EXIST.
AN EARLY READER OF THIS BOOK ASKED ME DID YOU READ THE PROSPECTUSES OF THE COMPANIES THAT WERE PUBLIC IN 1929?
I SAID PROSPECTUSES?
THERE WERE NO PROSPECTUSES.
MAYBE THERE WAS A LEAFLET AT BEST THAT THEY MIGHT HAVE HANDED OUT ON THE STREET OR AT A BROKERAGE FIRM TRYING TO HAWK YOU A STOCK.
THERE WERE NO INSIDER TRADING LAWS.
THERE WERE NO CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS FOR BANKS.
THERE WAS NONE OF THAT.
AND SO THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN THEN, 2008, AND NOW ARE HOPEFULLY VERY, VERY DIFFERENT.
I LIKE TO SAY I WROTE THIS BOOK ALMOST AS A PREQUEL TO "TOO BIG TO FAIL" IN HOPES WE DON'T HAVE TO EVER WRITE A SEQUEL.
>> ONE OF THE COMMON THREADS, THOUGH, IS THE FED.
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK.
THAT HAD BEEN AROUND FOR 15 YEARS I THINK BY THE TIME THE 1929 CRASH HAPPENED.
AND ONE OF YOUR GREAT CHARACTERS, CHARLES MITCHELL, SUNSHINE CHARLIE MITCHELL, RUNS NATIONAL CITY BANK.
HE GETS PUT ON THE FED AND THERE'S THIS POLITICAL PUSH BACK AND FORTH ON THE FED THAT REMINDS ME OF TODAY.
TELL ME HOW THAT WAS RELEVANT.
>> WELL, YOU'RE RIGHT.
AND I SHOULD SAY WHEN I BEGAN WRITING THIS BOOK I DIDN'T NECESSARILY GO INTO IT THINKING THERE WERE GOING TO BE SO MANY EERIE PARALLELS TO TODAY.
BUT ONE OF THEM IS THIS ISSUE OF THE FED WE TALK OFTENTIMES ABOUT THE INDEPENDENCE OF THE FED AND WHAT THE FED SHOULD BE DOING.
BACK IN 1929 THEY KNEW THE MARKET WAS OUT OF CONTROL.
THEY KNEW THERE WAS TOO MUCH SPECULATION.
AND THEY TALKED ABOUT TRYING TO TAMP IT DOWN.
BUT THERE WAS A BIG QUESTION ABOUT HOW YOU DO THAT.
AND THEY WERE VERY ALMOST OVERLY CONCERNED I WOULD ARGUE WITH THE POLITICS OF THE MOMENT.
YOU KNOW, AS YOU MENTIONED, THE FED WAS NEW BACK THEN.
IT WAS CREATED IN 1913.
AND THERE WAS A VIEW THAT IF THEY TRIED TO STAMP OUT THE SPECULATION BY RAISING INTEREST RATES TOO HIGH, AND IN FACT BACK THEN THE SAME DEBATE WE'RE HAVING NOW ABOUT LOWERING INTEREST RATES VERSUS RAISING INTEREST RATES AND WHAT THAT'S GOING TO DO TO THE ECONOMY, THE VIEW IS IF YOU DID WHAT FOR EXAMPLE PAUL VOLCKER DID IN THE LATE '70s NOT ONLY WOULD THESE PEOPLE LOSE THEIR JOBS THEY THOUGHT POLITICALLY AND GET HAULED IN FRONT OF CONGRESS, THEY THOUGHT THE FEDERAL RESERVE MIGHT BE ELIMINATED.
>> YOU'RE A GREAT TRIPLE THREAT IN MEDIA.
YOU HAVE, YOU KNOW, WONDERFUL BOOK WRITER.
YOU HAVE THE CNBC "SQUAWK BOX. "
YOU'RE "THE NEW YORK TIMES" AND DEAL BOOK.
IF YOU WERE DOING DEAL BOOK OR DOING "SQUAWK BOX" IN 1929, LET'S SAY IN AUGUST, WHAT TYPE OF QUESTIONS DO YOU THINK YOU WOULD BE ASKING AND SHOULD WE BE ASKING THOSE QUESTIONS NOW?
>> SO I THINK THE QUESTION YOU'D WANT TO BE ASKING IN 1929, AND I DON'T KNOW IF IT WOULD HAVE BEEN ASKED BUT I WISH IT WOULD BE, IS HOW MUCH LEVERAGE REALLY IS THERE IN THE SYSTEM.
EVERY FINANCIAL CRISIS, AND I THINK I LEARNED THIS WRITING THIS BOOK, I THINK I LEARNED THIS COVERING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2008 IN "TOO BIG TO FAIL," IS A FUNCTION OF REALLY ONLY ONE THING.
IT REALLY IS LEVERAGE.
IT'S TOO MUCH CREDIT IN THE SYSTEM.
AND THAT IS WHAT LEADS TO SOME FORM OF SPECULATION.
IN 1929 IT WAS LARGIN LOANS ON STOCK.
PEOPLE WERE LITERALLY GOING TO BROKERAGE HOUSES THAT HAD SPRUNG UP ON THE CORNERS OF STREETS THE WAY THERE ARE LIKE STARBUCKS ON THE CORNERS OF STREETS.
AND YOU COULD PUT A DOLLAR DOWN AND THE BROKERAGE WOULD LEND YOU $10.
IN 2008 IT WAS SUBPRIME MORTGAGES.
RIGHT?
AND SO THE QUESTION FOR TODAY WOULD BE WHERE IS THE LEVERAGE?
SO HOPEFULLY WE WOULD HAVE ASKED IS THERE TOO MUCH LEVERAGE IN '29, AND TODAY YOU MIGHT SAY TO YOURSELF IS THERE TOO MUCH LEVERAGE AND WHERE IS IT?
>> WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT LEVERAGE, YOU'RE PRETTY MUCH TALKING FUNDAMENTALLY ABOUT DEBT.
RIGHT?
PEOPLE TAKING ON TOO MUCH DEBT.
>> TOO MUCH DEBT.
>> CONSUMERS TAKING ON, THE GOVERNMENT TAKING ON.
WHERE IS THERE TOO MUCH DEBT BEING TAKEN ON NOW, AND HOW DOES THAT COMPARE TO BACK IN '29?
>> WELL, IT'S VERY INTERESTING THAT YOU SAY THAT BECAUSE WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT TODAY, THE DEBT --AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT CONCERNS ME -- IS A LITTLE BIT OUT OF REACH.
WE DON'T KNOW WHERE THE DEBT IS THE WAY WE USED TO KNOW WHERE THE DEBT IS.
IT USED TO LIVE ON THE BALANCE SHEET OF BANKS.
TODAY MOST OF THE BORROWING, ESPECIALLY AMONG CORPORATE AMERICA, IS NOT ACTUALLY FROM BANKS ANYMORE.
IT'S FROM WHAT'S CALLED PRIVATE CREDIT VEHICLES.
THESE ARE THINGS THAT PRIVATE EQUITY FIRMS HAVE SET UP THAT LIVE VERY MUCH IN THE SHADOWS.
SO WE DON'T REALLY KNOW HOW MUCH DEBT THERE REALLY IS TODAY.
AND THERE'S A LOT OF DEBT THAT'S BEING EMBEDDED IN THIS WHOLE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE REVOLUTION THAT'S TAKING PLACE.
YOU KNOW, HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BEING SPENT TO BUILD DATA CENTERS BUT A LOT OF THAT IS BEING PAID FOR WITH CREDIT, WITH DEBT.
AND I THINK WE NEED TO WATCH THAT AND TRY TO BETTER UNDERSTAND WHAT'S REALLY HAPPENING.
>> I'M READING YOUR BOOK, AND THERE ARE SO MANY SIMILARITIES BETWEEN BACK THEN, 100 YEARS AGO, AND NOW.
CERTAINLY AN AGE OF GREAT TECHNOLOGY WITH ELECTRICITY AND CARS AND EVERYTHING BEING TRANSFORMED.
LIKEWISE IT'S A ROARING JAZZ AGE AND ROARING '20s COMES ALONG.
TELL ME ABOUT THAT CULTURAL EXUBERANCE THAT'S HAPPENING THEN AND HOW THAT LED TO THE CRASH.
>> WELL, LOOK, I DON'T KNOW IF PEOPLE FULLY APPRECIATE IT, BUT PRIOR TO 1919 IN AMERICA NOBODY ACTUALLY TOOK ON CREDIT.
NOBODY TOOK A LOAN.
BECAUSE IT WAS ALMOST CONSIDERED A MORAL SIN TO TAKE A LOAN.
PEOPLE STARTED DOING THEM IN 1919 BECAUSE GENERAL MOTORS WANTED TO SELL MORE CARS AND THEY STARTED TO LOAN PEOPLE MONEY.
AND THEN SEARS ROEBUCK CLOCKED WHAT WAS HAPPENING AND SAID, WELL, WE'LL DO THE SAME NOW FOR APPLIANCES.
AND THEN CHARLIE MITCHELL, THE CEO YOU REFERRED TO WHO RUNS NATIONAL CITY, WHICH BECOMES CITIGROUP, HE SAYS OKAY, WELL, WE CAN LEND MONEY TO PEOPLE SO THEY CAN BUY STOCKS.
AND THE EXUBERANCE OF IT WAS A DECADE LONG.
AND ALL OF THESE PEOPLE ON WALL STREET AND CEOs ARE NOW ON THE COVER OF MAGAZINES, "TIME" MAGAZINE, "FORBES" MAGAZINE.
THEY BECOME ALMOST CULTURAL SUPERSTARS THE WAY YOU MIGHT THINK OF AN ELON MUSK OR SAM ALTMAN OR JAMIE DIMON TODAY.
YOU HAD THIS SORT OF REMARKABLE PERIOD WHERE THE STOCK MARKET KEPT GOING UP AND UP AND UP.
IN 1929 THE STOCK MARKET WAS UP 48%.
AND IF YOU HAD GOTTEN A LOAN FROM THE BANK TO BUY STOCK IT WAS LIKE FREE MONEY.
>> YOU TALK ABOUT SUNSHINE CHARLIE MITCHELL, THE HEAD OF NATIONAL CITY BANK, AND SAYING I THINK TO ONE OF HIS EMPLOYEES, THE EMPLOYEE'S SAYING WE'VE RUN OUT OF PEOPLE TO BUY STOCKS, HE SAID THERE ARE MILLIONS OF PEOPLE DOWN THERE, WE JUST HAVE TO GIVE THEM CREDIT.
WAS THAT PART OF IT, GETTING THE AVERAGE PERSON IN AMERICA HOOKED ON BEING IN THE STOCK MARKET?
>> SO MUCH OF THIS WAS ABOUT AND REALLY ALMOST PUT IN THE BANNER OF WE'RE GOING TO DEMOCRATIZE FINANCE.
AND THAT HAS A LOT OF ECHOES ABOUT WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY.
THERE'S A REAL EFFORT TO, QUOTE UNQUOTE, DEMOCRATIZE FINANCE IN AMERICA TODAY.
THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION RECENTLY PASSED A BILL SO THAT COMMON ORDINARY INVESTORS COULD GET ACCESS TO THINGS LIKE VENTURE CAPITAL AND PRIVATE EQUITY AND PRIVATE CREDIT, THINGS THAT HISTORICALLY WERE CONSIDERED WAY TOO RISKY FOR THE ORDINARY AMERICAN.
BUT THERE WAS A VIEW THAT YOU KNOW WHO HAD ACCESS TO THESE THINGS?
THE ELITE.
AND THAT THE ELITE HAVE HAD GREAT SUCCESS INVESTING IN THINGS LIKE UBER AND FACEBOOK LONG BEFORE THEIR IPOs.
WELL, ALL OF THAT IS NOW COMING TO US ALL OVER BETWEEN.
BUT IT ALSO MEANS THAT WE'RE TAKING SOME OF THE GUARDRAILS OFF THE SYSTEM AGAIN.
>> ISN'T THERE SOME TRUTH TO THAT, THOUGH, WHICH IS THE ECONOMIC ELITES UNTIL THAT GOT OPENED UP IN THE 1920s KIND OF CONTROLLED ALL THESE THINGS?
>> OH, 100%.
THE ECONOMIC ELITES CONTROLLED IT THEN AND YOU COULD ARGUE THAT THE ECONOMIC ELITES CONTROL IT NOW.
I THINK THE QUESTION IS WHENEVER YOU START TO TAKE THE GUARDRAILS OFF THINGS, WHENEVER YOU START TO CREATE NEW PRODUCTS WHICH YOU SELL THE ORDINARY INVESTOR, THERE ARE SOME GOOD PLAYERS IN ALL THIS BUT IT'S ALSO WHEN THE FRAUDS EMERGE.
IT'S WHEN THE CHARLATANS ARRIVE.
AND THE QUESTION IS ARE WE WATCHING FOR THAT?
>> ONE OF THE THINGS THAT REALLY STRUCK ME WAS I GUESS DISPARITIES OF WEALTH, IF THAT'S A WAY YOU WANT TO PUT IT.
>> YES.
>> SO TELL ME HOW THAT COMPARES TO TODAY.
>> VERY SIMILAR.
I MEAN, THE TRUTH IS THAT THE INEQUALITY OF THE LATE '20s IS VERY REMINISCENT OF WHERE WE ARE TODAY.
THE SOCIAL UNREST, INTERESTINGLY, AND THE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE INEQUALITY WERE NOT AS PRONOUNCED IN THE LATE '20s.
AND I DON'T KNOW IF THAT'S A FUNCTION OF THE WAY THE MEDIA WAS AT THAT TIME.
AND YOU KNOW, INTERESTINGLY IT REALLY WASN'T TILL '31, '32, AND '33 WHERE YOU REALLY SAW THE DEPRESSION REALLY MOVE INTO FULL FORCE AND HOOVERVILLES, WHICH ARE TENTED CAMPS, STARTED TO EMERGE INCLUDING, BY THE WAY, IN CENTRAL PARK LITERALLY JUST BLOCKS AWAY FROM WHERE CHARLES MITCHELL LIVED ON 5th AND 74th STREET.
>> YOU KNOW, HENRY FORD RIGHT AFTER THE CRASH HAPPENED, HE'S THERE IN DETROIT OF COURSE, AND HE GIVES HIS WORKERS A WAGE INCREASE.
HE TRIES TO MAKE SURE THAT WHAT HAPPENS ON WALL STREET DOESN'T INFECT WHAT HAPPENS IN REGULAR BUSINESS.
AND HE LAMENTS THE FACT THAT SO MUCH BRAIN POWER IS MOVING TO WALL STREET, THAT THERE ARE ALL THESE SMART PEOPLE GOING THERE INSTEAD OF MAKING REAL THINGS.
TO WHAT EXTENT WAS THAT A PROBLEM THAT HELPED EXACERBATE THE 1929 CRASH?
BECAUSE IT'S CERTAINLY REMINISCENT OF WHAT WE HAVE TODAY.
>> I THINK IT'S REMINISCENT OF WHAT WE HAVE TODAY.
I THINK IT'S REMINISCENT OF REALLY WHAT HAPPENED IN 2008, JUST HOW MUCH WALL STREET BECAME NOT THE BACK ROOM ENGINE BUT THE FRONT ROOM ENGINE OF THE ECONOMY, AND WHEN THAT HAPPENS, YOU KNOW, WHAT THE TRUE IMPLICATIONS OF THAT ARE.
INTERESTINGLY, HENRY FORD IN 1929 WAS DESCRIBED AS THE NATION'S SECOND BILLIONAIRE.
SO ROCKEFELLER WAS THE FIRST BILLIONAIRE.
THIS IS NOT INFLATION ADJUSTED, BY THE WAY, WALTER.
THIS IS FOR REAL.
AND HENRY FORD WAS THE SECOND BILLIONAIRE IN AMERICA.
BUT YOU'RE RIGHT, HE DID -- HE DID NOT ONLY TRY TO RAISE THE WAGES OF HIS WORKERS, HE ALMOST DID IT TO EMBARRASS HOOVER AND TO EMBARRASS THE OTHER CEOs TO TRY TO GET THEM TO RAISE WAGES.
ONE OF THE THINGS THAT HOOVER WAS TRYING TO DO AT THE TIME WAS ALMOST TRYING TO JAWBONE HIS WAY OUT OF THIS, CALLING THIS SORT OF A PSYCHOLOGICAL PROBLEM, THAT IF PEOPLE COULD JUST SORT OF GET OVER IT AND IF COMPANIES COULD PAY PEOPLE MORE.
HE ALSO WANTED TO TAX PEOPLE MORE.
AND BY THE WAY, ANDREW MELLON, WHO WAS OUR TREASURY SECRETARY, WAS WHISPERING IN HIS EAR THE WHOLE TIME, HE WAS A CAPITALIST, SAYING LET THEM EAT CAKE, IT'S FINE, LET THEM ALL FAIL, IF THEY MADE POOR DECISIONS THEY SHOULD FAIL.
SO YOU HAD THIS SORT OF FASCINATING DYNAMIC TAKING PLACE INSIDE WASHINGTON.
AND BY THE WAY, VERY MUCH LIKE TODAY'S WHITE HOUSE.
YOU KNOW, HOOVER WAS ON THE PHONE WITH AND CONSTANTLY IN CONTACT WITH ALL OF THESE CEOs.
THEY WERE LITERALLY MAKING THESE PILGRIMAGES TO THE WHITE HOUSE THE WAY THEY DO TODAY.
>> PRESIDENT HOOVER FELT THAT THE COLLAPSE OF THE STOCK MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY AFFECT BUSINESS IN AMERICA.
WHY WAS HE WRONG?
>> WELL, THIS IS --YOU KNOW, OFTENTIMES WE SAY LOOK AT THE STOCK MARKET, LOOK AT THE REAL ECONOMY, AND WE THINK THAT THEY'RE SOMEHOW NOT CONNECTED TO EACH OTHER AT ALL.
THE REASON WHY IT WAS CONNECTED, IT'S CONNECTED TODAY BUT I WOULD ARGUE IT WAS PERHAPS EVEN MORE CONNECTED THEN WAS BECAUSE SO MANY ORDINARY INVESTORS, SO MANY ORDINARY AMERICANS HAD TAKEN ON SO MUCH DEBT IN THE STOCK MARKET SO THAT WHEN THE STOCK MARKET FELL IT WASN'T JUST THAT THEY LOST MONEY AND THAT THE STOCKS THEY HAD BOUGHT AT $10 WERE NOW WORTH $1.
IT WAS THAT THEY HAD TAKEN ON SO MUCH DEBT THAT THEY NOW OWED SO MUCH MONEY.
AND BECAUSE THEY OWED SO MUCH MONEY THEY COULDN'T BUY BASIC GOODS.
THAT'S WHY THEY HAD HOOVERVILLES.
AND SO IT REALLY DID SPIRAL OUT OF CONTROL TO THE POINT IN WHICH 1933 9,000 BANKS FALTERED.
THEY FAILED IN 1933.
AND THAT IS REALLY I THINK A DIRECT DOMINO, IF YOU WILL, FROM WHAT HAPPENED IN FALL OF 1929.
>> THE LAST THIRD OR SO OF YOUR BOOK IS ACTUALLY AFTER OCTOBER 1929.
IT'S ABOUT THE DEPRESSION, WHY ALL OF THIS HAPPENS, WHY IT AFFECTS BUSINESS, AND THEN OF COURSE FRANKLIN DELANO ROOSEVELT COMES IN.
WHAT DOES HE DO?
>> WELL, HE DOES A WHOLE BUNCH OF THINGS, SOME OF WHICH ACTUALLY HOOVER WANTED TO DO.
BUT FOR WHATEVER REASON DECIDED NOT TO OR FELT HE COULDN'T.
AND ONE OF THE THINGS THAT HE DOES IS HE HAS WHAT'S CALLED A NATIONAL BANK HOLIDAY.
SO HE ACTUALLY SHUTTERS ALL OF THE BANKS IN THE UNITED STATES AND THEN TRIES TO PROP UP THE ONES THAT ACTUALLY HE BELIEVES ARE STRONG ENOUGH.
AND THEN ENACTS, YOU KNOW, A SERIES OF LEGISLATION INCLUDING THE GLASS-STEAGALL PIECE OF LEGISLATION SEPARATING THE GAMBLING PIECE FROM THE BANKING PIECE, BUT ALSO CREATING THE FDIC SO THAT YOUR MONEY THAT GOES INSIDE A BANK IS INSURED.
AND THEN LATER IN 1934 CREATES THE S. E. C. , WHICH REALLY OVERSEES AND REGULATION THE STOCK MARKET, THE IDEA OF INSIDER TRADING AND MANIPULATION, BY THE WAY, WHICH IS A HUGE COMPONENT OF WHAT WAS HAPPENING IN 1929.
SO MUCH OF THE STOCK MARKET WAS BEING MANIPULATED, OFTENTIMES BY THE ELITES.
>> I MUST SAY THAT WHEN I FINISHED YOUR BOOK I WAS LIKE ALL RIGHT, I'VE GOT TO SELL STOCKS.
AND I'M NOT A BIG STOCK SPECULATOR.
BUT IT WAS LIKE OH MY GOD, THIS COULD HAPPEN AGAIN.
IT'S SUCH A FRIGHTENING BOOK.
TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT COULD HAPPEN AGAIN?
AND TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK YOU MIGHT PROVOKE IT SLIGHTLY IF PEOPLE READ THIS BOOK?
>> WELL, I'M HOPING NOT TO PROVOKE IT.
I'M ACTUALLY HOPING THAT TO THE EXTENT THAT PEOPLE READ THIS BOOK THEY TAKE AWAY SOME LESSONS.
I HOPE POLICY MAKERS BETTER UNDERSTAND WHAT HAPPENED IN 1929 SO THAT WE CAN TAKE AWAY LESSONS AND THIS DOESN'T HAPPEN AGAIN.
IT DOES NOT HAVE TO HAPPEN AGAIN.
WE ARE NOT DESTINED TO HAVE THIS HAPPEN AGAIN.
IT IS TRUE, I DO THINK THAT THE TRAIN, IF YOU WILL, IS CAREENING TOWARDS SOME FORM OF A CRISIS AT SOME POINT.
THE PROBLEM IS YOU'LL NEVER KNOW.
WE'RE ALWAYS LIVING IN A BUBBLE OF SOME SORT.
AND IT WILL POP AT SOME POINT TOO.
WHAT WE WANT TO DO, THOUGH, IS PREVENT IT FROM POPPING IN SUCH A WAY THAT IT CREATES THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION.
AND I THINK THAT CAN BE AVOIDED.
THE TRUTH IS WE'VE ACTUALLY MANAGED TO AVOID THAT EVER SINCE THEN.
YES, WE'VE HAD CRISES.
1999, DOTCOM BUBBLE WAS A NICE.
2008 WAS A CRISIS.
BUT HERE WE ARE, WALTER, AND WE'RE BETTER FOR IT.
AND IN MANY WAYS I THINK WE'VE HAD MORE AND MORE INNOVATION.
A. I. I THINK IS VERY EXCITING AND WILL BE HERE FOR AS LONG AS I CAN IMAGINE.
WILL WE HAVE A HICCUP ALONG THE WAY?
I IMAGINE WE WILL.
BUT LET'S HOPE THAT'S ALL IT IS.
>> ANDREW ROSS SORKIN, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.
>> THANK YOU, WALTER.
SO APPRECIATE IT.
> >> AND FINALLY, HAPPY DIWALI, THE HINDU FESTIVAL OF LIGHTS.
FANTASTIC FIREWORKS DISPLAYS KICKED OFF THE FIVE-DAY CELEBRATION IN THE INDIAN TEMPLE CITY OF AYODHOYA.
AS A RECORD-BREAKING 2.
6 MILLION LAMPS WERE LIT ALONG THE SARUYA RIVER BANK LAST FLIGHT.
IN COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, DEVOTEES ARE SEEN OFFERING THEIR PRAYERS AT TEMPLES DECORATED WITH TRADITIONAL RANGOLI ART.
MEANWHILE, THESE POLICE DOGS IN NEPAL ARE ALSO BEING HONORED AS PART OF THE FESTIVITIES.
DRESSED UP IN GARLANDS AND VERMILION AS DOGS ARE SEEN AS MESSAGES OF YAMARAJ, THE HINDU GOD OF DEATH.
THAT IS IT FOR NOW.
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR WATCHING AND GOOD- BYE FROM NEW YORK.