Tariffs, Taiwan & Trump 2.0: What’s Next for U.S.-China Relations?

HARI SREENIVASAN: Christiane, thanks. Professor Jessica Chen Weiss, thanks so much for joining us. Just recently we had the Chinese Development Forum where China gets to invite foreign companies from all over the world and say, we’re open for business. And I wonder in light of what’s been happening with the Trump administration in the past month or two, is it open for business as usual or what are the kind of changes that the Chinese are trying to all lure the world with?

JESSICA CHEN WEISS: Well, thanks so much. It’s great to be here. I mean, the Chinese are nervous as well about all that’s underway with the, you know, on and off again tariffs and the changes in US foreign policy. And they have a lot of economic challenges at home. And so the China Development Forum is their, you know, annual effort to signal again that, you know, that China is, as you said, open for business. But they have a long way to go in terms of reassuring foreign investors that China plans to kind of live up to its promises to be the defender of globalization, and not to follow the path of kind of unilateralism that they’ve, you know, criticized so much in US policy recently. I mean, certainly China sees, you know, some benefit from the US making itself seem like an unreliable partner, particularly in Europe, but they’re quite nervous as well. China’s benefited a lot from globalization. And to the extent that tariffs go up around the world, this could come at, you know, significant cost include, you know, the Chinese growth, which you know, remains very heavily dependent on exports especially in light of the challenges at home.

HARI SREENIVASAN: So how much of this is an opportunity for China? 

JESSICA CHEN WEISS: Well, I certainly think that, you know, China has been trying to build external partnerships as a way to provide some insulation from what it saw as kind of US-led containment suppression sanctions. And so to the extent that the United States is no longer an attractive economic partner, China stands to benefit. But at the same time, a loss for the United States isn’t necessarily a win for China. I don’t think that China is necessarily gonna fill the void that the United States has left in many parts of the world, particularly in global health.

HARI SREENIVASAN: So in global health, if we stop vaccine distributions, China doesn’t necessarily have the infrastructure to stand up the equivalent of USAID, right?

JESSICA CHEN WEISS: Exactly. China’s I think not capable and not particularly interested in making those kinds of investments. Which is, you know, I think a loss for the world, that, and Americans too because I think the early detection and containment of infectious diseases, you know, like Ebola, you know, has benefited many Americans. And I think the greater risk here is not that some China steps up and fills the void, but instead kind of the disintegration of many of the international efforts that had once, I think, kept many of these diseases at bay.

HARI SREENIVASAN: Is there something different about Trump 1.0 versus 2.0 in terms of I, not just the posturing, but actually the policies that they’re laying out? Because we saw tariffs against China in the first administration. Is there something different now? Is it the, just level of uncertainty? 

JESSICA CHEN WEISS: I think there’s a big difference already out of the gate between the two Trump administrations. I think that everybody expected that these tariffs would be used as leverage against, against China, potentially to extract better terms, maybe get them to live up to their end of the first, you know, trade deal. But instead we’re seeing much more priority actually on US allies and partners, some of our closest ones in Canada, Mexico. We’re also seeing, you know, new rhetoric about the desire you know, to take Greenland one way or the other. Calling into question really, I think some of the most fundamental principles of, you know, norms against you know, territorial aggression and expansion that have really been, I think, important to holding you know, even authoritarian powers like China and Russia in check. So that’s a really big departure. And I think that many American allies, especially in Europe and in Canada, are now looking to the United States and wondering if their greatest threat is not at all China but the United States instead. And so you know, a big part of I think American strength has run through our alliances and partnerships. And those are very much I think being called into question.

HARI SREENIVASAN: I wonder what the lessons are that China takes as the United States postures much closer towards Russia in light of Ukraine. A lot of people have been saying, you know, how the United States deals with Ukraine is gonna be a signal for China on what it could do with Taiwan.

JESSICA CHEN WEISS: I think China’s quite nervous about the rapprochement between the United States and Russia, but I also don’t think they think it can go that far. And certainly the, I think Xi and Putin have taken pains to reassure one another that their partnership isn’t driven by these external factors and that it’s remains strong. But I think that China sees both benefits and risks. I think on the one hand, the United States is, I think, undermining many of its key strengths. Not only the allies and partners, but also I think the domestic, you know basis of, you know, China’s, or, sorry, the domestic basis of American kind of science and technology leadership. And so we’re witnessing a kind of brain drain that China is benefiting from, Europe is benefiting from, France, others are luring American scientists who see a dead end for their careers here now in the new climate.

But they also, I think, in China see risks. You know, that, again, China’s in a really difficult domestic position now, and they’ve been trying over the last couple years to stabilize their, the kind of external environment. You know, not shying away from punching back, but nonetheless not looking, I think, to provoke escalation or conflict. And so I don’t see them necessarily crowing that loudly, although they’re certainly happy to point out to American allies and partners just how unreliable the United States has been of late, and that China you know, continues to portray itself as a defender of the status quo in contrast to the United States.

HARI SREENIVASAN: I wonder if the work that China has been doing across what we would consider the global south, you know, the partnerships with the Belt and Road Initiative, the investments in you know, even in say, India, Pakistan sort of different regions are paying off now, if that’s as good of a hedge as you need.

JESSICA CHEN WEISS: I think they’ve been pretty effective as a hedge. China has since the first trade war really tried to diversify away from the United States toward what we call south south relationships. And that trade has become increasingly important to China, and I think provides real kind of insurance for the, you know, for Chinese businesses seeking access to markets as well as, you know, raw inputs. And it means that when the United States, you know, raises tariffs against China and China retaliates, and as the United States, you know, takes on many of its, you know, top trading partners you know, with greater tariffs, and the risk is that the United States actually isolates itself from the world, and that China continues you know, to you know, court those who are, I think, wary of the element of chaos that the United States is introducing into the global trading system.

HARI SREENIVASAN: There are discussions right now about a gold pass that would offer basically citizenship in the United States for about $5 million. And the Trump administration and the Commerce Secretary expect to sell a million of these, and they said, well, look at the number of Chinese businessmen or people that could come over with their families. Is that given where kind of the tensions are right now, is that something that, you know the Chinese billionaires want to have in their side pocket, is just to, you know, opportunity to leave China and go to the United States? Or do they see kind of both as unstable or unpredictable?

JESSICA CHEN WEISS: I think that there are a huge number of Chinese that would like to take their, you know, their investments and assets elsewhere where they feel safer. But I don’t know that in the current environment the United States feels like the safest of havens. Which is really a missed opportunity. And if anything, I think, at least in the science and technology domain, we are seeing a reversal where Chinese scientists who once contributed their efforts to innovation here in the United States are being recruited back to China. So this is a real own goal for the United States. And if the gold card or other mechanisms, H1B, I mean, if they could be strengthened, I think there’s a real opportunity here to bring Chinese and others with a lot of talent and assets to invest in the United States. And that’s one thing, actually, that the, that President Trump himself has been open to even though aspects of his administration documents suggesting, you know, a higher degree of scrutiny of Chinese investment, but you know, on television, President Trump said that actually we welcome Chinese money to bring jobs here. So I think that’s still a very much an open question as to whether this will go in the direction of being more welcoming or more closed.

HARI SREENIVASAN: What does that do, you know, when you touched on innovation there, if Chinese scientists who are in the United States are either being lured back or for their own reasons, they decide, you know, I can make a pretty good living in China, there are some fantastic technology companies or science companies that wanna hire me there. 

JESSICA CHEN WEISS: I mean, this in some ways is like history potentially repeating itself, where, you know, in the early days of the Cold War you know, a Chinese rocket scientist who helped, you know, in founding that here in the United States, then couldn’t you know, continue to be employed here, went back to China and founded their kind of rocket program, which is, you know, today, you know, one of the world leaders. So you know, this is a real challenge both in numbers, but also in terms of the quality of the individuals who are leaving. And really this has to do with, you know, scientific investment, federal investment and research and development where China is spending, you know, an order of magnitude more in this area than the United States right now, which is going in the other direction.

And cuts to the, whether it’s the National Science Foundation or the National Institute of Health, you know, the tax on universities and the overhead and questions around how much longer universities can continue to be what they have in which is really the envy of the world and a magnet for international talent. This is all, I think, going very much potentially in the wrong direction to the benefit of China or, you know, other countries I mentioned in Europe that are already putting together programs to attract the scientists who are fearing for their careers here in the United States.

HARI SREENIVASAN: Is China using this opportunity to try to elevate its position on the world stage from kind of just a foreign or military might? 

JESSICA CHEN WEISS: So China certainly, I think, wants to play, you know, a greater role in leading. But what that leadership looks like, I think, is very much a work in progress. So far, they’ve been pretty opportunistic and symbolic in the ways that they’ve hoped to lead. Being willing to set the table for diplomatic discussions, but not necessarily playing a driving role in kind of twisting arms to bring warring parties to the table. I think that their are, their aspirations for Taiwan really haven’t changed, although I think that many think that there’s a greater ordeal of impatience given China’s growing capabilities. But also I think given trends on the island and in the US relationship, unofficial relationship with Taiwan have also I think provoked a degree of concern and even pessimism about you know, how that situation is unraveling.

And so I don’t see, again, you know, kind of a precipitous move here. I think China’s actually been kind of you know, wanting to again establish itself as a legitimate and central player on the world stage, not be kind of relegated to the margins. Certainly the Chinese Communist Party doesn’t want democracy to be seen as the kind of the inevitable trajectory of countries around the world, where that’s very much threatening to the continuation of their rule. And so, as the kind of one of the remaining communist parties in the world that’s in a position of leadership, you know, China’s very concerned about going that way. So I think a lot of the effort that they’ve made to step up on the world stage is to be seen as central rather than peripheral.

But again, they, how much have they been willing to invest in showing that China is a country that can be relied upon or turned to in times of crisis? I think that’s, they’ve been much more selective and strategic in trying to advance their national interests and their objectives of taking or quote, unquote reunifying with Taiwan. I don’t see that being precipitously changed by changes in the United States so far, so long as a US policy toward Taiwan and China remains on a more or less even keel. So far the president has, you know, declined to change US policy toward Taiwan, which I think is wise. But we shall see what happens in the days and months to come.

HARI SREENIVASAN: One of the stories in the past few weeks has been the United States deciding to cut off, you know, Radio Free Liberty, Radio Free Asia, Radio Free Europe, and so forth, Voice of America and sort of other networks. Is that an opportunity for China?

JESSICA CHEN WEISS: I certainly think that it reduces the set of views that you know, people in Southeast Asia or other parts of the world hear. I think that the, the bigger, you know, effect though you know, is to reduce the sense that the United States is, you know, championing sort of the cause of democracy against China and the support that USAID and the National Endowment of Democracy had played in supporting groups that often were quite critical of China holding it to account. To some extent this is, I think reassuring to China, and  in some ways, I think continues the trend of American you know, leaders realizing that we have a limited ability to shape the trajectory of China’s domestic political system. But this is a, you know, a really a sudden change, I think that many are still you know, questioning, you know, how this will all play out. I mean, I think Chinese propaganda has not necessarily been all that effective itself. And you know, we, one has to wonder about all of these, you know, state-funded efforts. I think much more important would be a kind of robust and vibrant news media, independent news media that is not funded by governments. Yeah. And so we’ll have to watch that space.

HARI SREENIVASAN: Are there concerns about how the president creates this atmosphere, maybe it’s hawkishness or aggression towards China, and what the ripple effects are in American democracy to civil liberties? I’m thinking particularly, you know, in the wake of the pandemic, statement after statement that came outta the president’s mouth, really. And then the, we saw a massive increase in anti-Asian hate crimes for a couple of years. What are the ripple effects of the ways the president and the administration frames our relationship with China?

JESSICA CHEN WEISS: I’m so glad that you raised the question of rhetoric and the attacks on you know, Asian Americans, because I do think that that was a really big sea change after the pandemic. And to some extent, I think we’re still living in that, in that world, even though the President himself has actually pivoted in terms of his rhetoric, talking about, you know, wanting a constructive and positive relationship with Xi Jinping. Saying a fair number of nice things about him. But I think that the tone that that earlier period set still remains very much alive on Capitol Hill. We have bills, you know, suggesting the, you know, expulsion of Chinese students from the United States. We have legislation that would really treat all you know, Chinese investment or commerce is, is potentially suspect, especially academic exchange.

And I think that that is really damaging because you know, the United States has really thrived on being a place where people of different nationalities and from different countries can actively participate. And it’s you know, we’re an open economy, and I think the more that we move to a closed one, the more that you know, companies of all nationalities wonder about coming and investing in the United States. And we, it’s not just that even I think affecting Asian Americans now. You know, we have tourism to the United States is down. We have, you know, people being turned away at the border or harassed that aren’t of Asian extraction. And so I think this is all very much calling into question, you know the future of the United States as an open and welcoming society, which has really fueled I think our leadership for so many decades.

HARI SREENIVASAN: Jessica Chen Weiss, the Director of the Institute for America, China, and the Future of Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins University. Thanks so much for joining us.

JESSICA CHEN WEISS: My pleasure. Thanks.