♪♪

>> Funding for the

"Long Island Business Report"

has been provided by...

the JPB Foundation

and the Ford Foundation.

>> Hello, and thanks

for joining us.

I'm Jim Paymar with the

"Long Island Business Report."

Millennials on Long Island

are leaving the island

at an alarming rate.

One study indicates that

in the foreseeable future,

some 65% of Long Island

professionals age 22 to 35 are

projected to leave the island

for more affordable parts

of the country.

Can this trend be stopped

so Long Island doesn't suffer

a brain drain of its best

and brightest,

causing Long Island's

economy to falter?

As part of our ongoing reporting

initiative "Poverty and

Opportunity in America:

Chasing the Dream," we're

discussing the challenges

millennials face

to stay on the island.

Joining me to discuss this issue

is Dr. Martin Cantor,

director of the Long Island

Center for Socioeconomic Policy,

and Dylan and Ally McElroy,

young millennials

who live in Bohemia

in Suffolk County.

Martin, Dylan, and Ally, thank

you all for being with us today.

Appreciate it.

>> Great to be here.

>> Thanks for having us.

>> Marty, set the stage for us.

How serious is this millennial

flight, this brain drain of

young people from Long Island --

people who really

don't want to leave,

but they just can't afford

to stay here?

>> Well, it's a serious issue

if it's not addressed.

The big concern is 72% in our

survey said that they don't

think Long Island is going to be

able to attract the companies

where they wish to work,

and 68% said they can't find

jobs that meet their salary

expectations.

And those are very serious

issues to be met, and the island

is having a problem attracting

any companies outside

the region to come in here.

We haven't had a major,

major relocation in 50 years,

so how are we going to find

those companies that these folks

want to work in, like Amazon?

Amazon won't come here,

for a whole variety of reasons,

and those are the type of

companies the young millennials

would like to live in.

>> What about growing the small

businesses that already exist

here and making them larger

businesses if we can't attract

large businesses

from outside the region?

>> Well, the other side

is the old joke, "How do

you make a small business?

Well, you start out

with a large business

and run it into the ground."

The fact is, is that small

businesses can only go so far.

They're usually mom-and-pops.

They're not geared towards

the new technology.

They're not geared towards

reaching out and marketing.

The region itself is an issue.

Remember, when you get larger

and larger, employee costs go

up, energy costs go up,

taxes go up, so it's very --

And you have to export,

and export's not one of

the things we do well,

so it's rather difficult

to expect that.

>> But we did have

large companies like Grumman.

>> Absolutely.

>> And they were here for

a long time, and they

employed thousands of people

with great wages and --

>> One of the largest employers.

>> Yeah.

>> But in another survey that I

conducted for the Long Island

Forum for Technology,

the respondencies

of manufacturing companies,

the fence companies,

the higher-paying companies,

they had said to us two things

which were of concern.

30% of the companies said they

would relocate out of the region

because of high costs,

which, we're seeing the outflow

of businesses.

And 50% of the respondents said

that the industry would contract

in the next five years,

which it has.

So, unless you staunch that

outgo of economic activity where

the millennials want to work,

those companies

will not be here.

>> Now, Dylan, you're one of

the young millennials,

and your wife, Ally, as well,

and you're having

a hard time staying here.

You're born and raised

here, right?

>> Absolutely.

>> And you live in Bohemia.

And right now, you're living

in your parents'...

>> Yes. Basement.

Yes, yes, yes.

>> Which is not probably

what you'd like to be doing.

>> No.

I mean, luckily for us,

it's a very nice apartment.

It's spacious enough to have me,

my husband,

and both of our children,

but it's not, you know,

prime -- prime location for us

to want to be living

at the moment.

>> And, Dylan,

you went to St. John's.

You got a bachelor's degree.

You're working.

You've got a decent job.

You're going for your MBA.

You're kind of an

All-American kind of a guy,

you know, trying to raise

a family and do the right thing,

but it's a struggle.

How do you survive?

>> Well, it definitely

is a struggle.

We definitely fight every single

day to, you know, make sure we,

you know, advance our family

as best that we can.

Luckily, I was able to get

the job straight out of college,

so I didn't have to

struggle and search

like a lot of other people

that come straight out of

college with their bachelor's

on Long Island, or even across

the country nowadays.

I was able to get a job pretty

quickly, which is something

that helped us out a lot,

and being young and having

the two kids that we have

added to the struggle,

but, you know, luckily,

we've had our parents --

Not just, obviously, being able

to live in my in-laws' house,

but my parents being there

for a lot of support has been

what kind of has allowed us

to ease our way through

with the family transition,

our growing family,

and being able to actually

stay here for now.

>> Now, when we talked on

the phone, you told me

that a lot of your friends

have already left Long Island.

They just can't cut it.

>> Yes.

>> They just can't make enough

money.

The job opportunities

are not here.

Affordable housing is not here.

How significant is that

among your peer group?

>> I mean, it's extremely

significant.

I mean, we've had this

conversation with our --

with our friend groups.

You know, we have a very close,

tight-knit family, we call it,

and, you know, some of them

have already left.

Others have already communicated

that they probably want to

leave.

I have a friend -- We have

a friend who actually

owns a small business here on

Long Island in St. James,

and that's something that

he's been working for

his entire life to get to.

He's running it right now, and

luckily he is having success,

but even with the success

of his small business,

he's still struggling.

He lives at home.

>> I see.

Ally, you see any kind

of rectification?

Do you see any

good prospects out there?

I mean, right now you're raising

two little kids, so you --

>> Yes.

>> And you have a degree,

so you can't really...

If you went to work, you're

going to be paying more

for daycare and transportation.

>> Right. Exactly.

>> It doesn't make sense, right?

>> Exactly. Yeah.

It's definitely hard.

I feel like, you know, you do.

You just make enough to survive,

not to thrive.

So, if, you know, we -- If push

comes to shove, we had to leave,

we would, you know?

We would be with our friends

and -- and follow them

and try and have -- you know,

live in a place that we could

have enough to live comfortably.

>> Uh-huh.

>> We don't live comfortably.

>> Right.

>> You know, and granted,

we have the help of his parents

and my parents.

It's still -- It's not enough.

We don't want to be that burden.

You know, we never

want to be that burden.

>> And, Dylan, you told me that

you actually looked for a place,

and, I mean, it was like

1,500 bucks, and it wasn't much

bigger than this studio here.

>> Yeah. No, absolutely.

We toured the place.

It was in Bay Shore, and,

honestly, saying the studio is

about the same size is an

accurate description, honestly.

And the $1,500, you know,

as we talked about,

that was on the low end.

That was kind of that gentleman

doing us a little bit of a favor

because he knew

of our family situation.

At that time, we just had our

daughter, not our son just yet,

but he understood the growing

family, and he was helping us

out with the $1,500.

>> Uh-huh.

>> So, that was the low end.

A lot of other things that we've

looked at in the, you know,

either Suffolk or Nassau County

to rent a two-bedroom so that we

can have a bedroom for ourselves

and the kids, you know, it's

a lot more than that -- $1,800,

$2,000, a lot more than that.

>> Marty, the brain drain --

I mean, Long Island cannot

afford to put kids through

elementary school, middle

school, high school, then give

them a good college education

and have them shipped off

to Virginia, Florida,

Georgia, South Carolina.

I mean, we're not going to

survive if that takes place.

>> Well, it's an interesting

point.

Just to speak to what Dylan

had said, 86% of the people

that we surveyed said that

housing options were

an important reason

for them to stay on the island.

>> Right.

>> And that's important, and you

talk about the economics.

If we pay $20,000 a year

per student -- which is

kind of the low side

for some districts -- and

they're in school for 12 years,

that's $240,000

of our taxpayers' dollars

which are leaving the region

and benefiting someplace else.

And to talk about the

millennial -- the contribution

to the Long Island economy,

when you figure per capita...

income earnings, which is low,

it's about $30,000 a year.

Millennials earn more, but just

by the 500,000 millennials

that live on the island,

that would equate to about

$14 billion of direct earnings

and about $25 billion worth

of economic impact.

That's about 10%

of the Long Island economy.

That is a large, large amount to

put at risk to leave the region.

>> Is there a way

to turn this around?

>> Well, yeah.

I think part of it

is really interesting.

The Site Selection Guild,

which relocates most

of corporate America,

said the most important thing

to get businesses here

and to hire paying businesses

is to eliminate dysfunction

in government.

You know, and if you looked

under "dysfunction in

government," you'd have a

picture of Long Island

governments.

>> Mm-hmm.

>> You have so many

municipalities, towns, villages,

counties, school districts,

it drives a business crazy

to come here.

And how many type

of governmental agencies

do you have to push the peanut

to get your business here?

That discourages business.

>> Right.

>> And so we have to do a better

job of welcoming businesses.

To have the Heartland Park

in Islip Town wait for 15 years

to be able to get their permits

to put up housing is absurd.

>> Mm-hmm.

>> That's what discourages

business, so we have to change

how we look at business and do

business.

And, quite frankly,

the people that live here,

their parents, you folks,

you have to stop the NIMBY

approach where it says

if anything happens,

you're going to be against it.

>> Mm-hmm.

>> You know, you can't have

that.

>> Well, the "NIMBY approach,"

meaning what?

>> Oh, not in my --

>> Like, "Don't build a big

development in my area"?

>> It goes even worse than that.

Glen Cove, there was a proposal

for 14-room residence for people

with eating disorders.

The community turned it down.

>> Mm-hmm.

>> I mean, these are 14 people

living there, and the employees,

and they didn't want it,

and that's absurd.

You know, that's what

you're looking at.

You know, you have to realize

what is detrimental

to your community,

and we have to learn

to accept to live with

what we can live with,

and not just don't want to live

with anything.

>> Now, Dylan, you've got

a big, long commute into Queens

every day -- from Bohemia

to St. John's University,

where you work.

>> Yes.

>> And that's costly,

and it's time-consuming,

and you can't find a job closer?

You can't find a job

on the island that would pay you

a little bit more so that

you could perhaps get out

of Ally's parents' basement?

>> Well, that's the goal.

You know, I have been doing

some searching at some jobs now.

To be honest, a lot of them

are kind of a little bit less

than what I would be hoping for,

you know, being someone who

finished a four-year degree,

finished a master's degree,

and had eight years' worth of

working experience in the

environment in which I am.

Granted, it's athletics

for a college, a university,

but there's a lot of business

attributes that can transfer

to other, you know, industries.

>> Of course.

>> So, even trying to look at

something that, you know, would

match, a lot of it doesn't pay

enough, or slightly less than

what I currently make right now,

but I'm trying to be able to,

you know, put my name out there

and show people what I can do

to be able to get that higher

job, to be able to advance

myself, advance my family

so that I can take care of them.

>> So, are you considering

leaving?

>> Absolutely.

>> Yeah?

>> If push comes to shove,

you know, we would have to.

You know, especially with me

not working right now

to raise our children,

because of the fact...sending

them somewhere would

be just as expensive.

You know, my husband is one of

the most hardest-working

men that I know.

>> Mm-hmm.

>> He really, truly is.

He will go down to, you know,

the nubs of his fingers

working so hard.

And if he had an opportunity

somewhere else that sees

how hard he works and was

willing to pay him what he

deserves, I would tell him to

take it.

>> So, you'd move

to North Carolina?

>> Absolutely.

I've always told my husband,

"Wherever you would

like to go, I'll follow."

>> Uh-huh.

>> You know, he's part of my

world.

My children are my world.

As much as I love our family

here, you know, in the long run,

they're not gonna be paying our

mortgage, and I wouldn't want

them to have to pay our mortgage

or help us pay our mortgage.

So, I think they would also

understand because our parents,

growing up, struggled, as well.

You know, they had the help of

then -- You know, my parents

had the help of their parents.

His parents -- Literally,

his dad built a business

from the ground up.

>> Mm-hmm.

>> So, you know, they would

understand -- if wehad to

leave, we would have to.

>> But, Dylan, you don't

want to leave?

>> I do not, honestly.

You know, we've had this

conversation many times.

We would love to be here.

You know, this is where we grew

up.

You know, Ally, my wife, grew up

in Brooklyn, but she still

grew up in the Long Island area

when she moved here.

And, you know, my family's here.

Her family's here.

All of our friends are here --

for now.

>> Mm-hmm.

>> You know, we would love to

stay here, because we do love it

here, but if the opportunity to

stay, you know, is more costly

than the opportunity to move,

I think moving -- you know,

especially at a young age

and being able to take care

of our family --

that's the opportunity

that we have to take.

>> Marty, what about government?

What can government do

to help people like Dylan

and Ally stay here

and work here and thrive here

and help build Long Island

to become a bigger and more

profitable, prosperous place?

>> Well, having served

in government, you know,

sometimes you just have

to get out of the way.

You have to be able to find the

quickest way to get from

point "A" to point "B," and do

it, and have the gumption

to do it --

>> What, cut the red tape?

>> And cut the red tape,

not worry about re-election,

not worry about how many

votes you're going to get,

but doing the right thing for

the economy for the island.

>> Well, what would be the right

thing?

What's the right thing for them?

>> Well, the right thing for

them, first of all, is that --

The interesting point he brought

out, and he fits the perfect

model of the millennials.

91% have advanced -- have

college degrees, and 70%

have advanced degrees.

>> Mm-hmm.

>> And that's very important

to contribute to the economy.

You know, housing, housing

costs -- You know, housing costs

have been cited as a greater

impediment to staying here

than the size of the apartment

or, you know, you want

to be near train stations.

Walkability is an important

factor to raise a family and to

stay here, but the whole point

is that...

I've been saying for years that

the problem with Long Island

are its costs, and you can't --

>> Well, I mean, of course.

We all know that.

>> Yeah, you can't raise enough

revenues.

You know, and the talk is,

"Well, you have to expand the

tax base."

Well, there's not enough room

to expand the tax base to

reduce the costs of government.

>> Mm-hmm.

>> So you have to start looking

at consolidation of our units.

We have 124 school districts.

We have 10 towns and cities

on the island.

We have a myriad

of water districts

and sanitation districts.

We can set up one unified water

authority for the entire region

to get rid of all the patronage.

>> Yeah, but, Marty,

these are fiefdoms, and --

>> Oh, we know that.

>> Then there are

administrators, and there are

hundreds of workers that would

be...

>> It's political patronage,

Jim, and you know it

as well as I do.

>> I know, and who's going to

take that on?

>> Well, that's the point.

You know, if we -- If government

gets out of the way, and we have

some strong leadership who says,

"It's time to do this

to keep our next generation --

high-income-earning-potential

millennials, like Dylan -- to

remain here, and those other --

You know, the rest of the

500,000, instead of losing,

you know, 50,000 that we might,

that's what we have to do."

And somebody has to be able

to articulate the reason

that we have to consolidate

and reduce our costs rather than

keeping the status quo.

>> Right, and, Dylan,

you told me on the phone

about this program,

the State of New York

Mortgage Agency.

What would this do you for,

Dylan?

>> Well, one of their programs

that we looked into very,

very deeply was the

Achieving the Dream Program,

which is providing loans at a,

you know, lower interest rate

for first-time home buyers

to try to assist them with,

obviously, buying their first

home.

And one of the very interesting

things that we found while

doing the research was

the entire State of New York,

they have, you know,

income limits and housing,

property cost, you know,

where they can provide aid.

And for Long Island,

you can be making over $100,000

and still need assistance

buying your first home.

>> Mm-hmm.

>> So that was one very,

you know, glaring --

>> Shocking.

>> Yeah.

A very shocking revelation that

we found while we were doing

this.

And, you know, we had to look

into some other additional

opportunities to be able to

help.

You know, we looked into --

There's the Community

Development Corporation

of Long Island that provides

grants to first-time home buyers

once you go through some

training, so that would've

been...

You know, adding those two

things together would have been

great assistance for us.

Just sometimes, it doesn't

always work out.

>> Right.

Any other solutions

for you guys to stay?

I mean, Ally, I mean,

I guess, at some point,

you can go back to work,

but your kids are little, tiny.

>> Very, very. Yeah, yes.

>> So if you had a dual income,

would that make a difference?

>> That would make a huge

difference, just even

in the slightest bit,

you know, 'cause my income would

cover the cost of said bills,

and then his would cover

the rest of the other bills.

But at the same time,

if we didn't have kids,

you know, it'd be easier,

but then I also --

I wanted children.

>> Mm-hmm.

>> So, you know, it's tough

for young couples who are,

"Okay, let's wait until we're

financially ready for kids."

Truth is, nobody's financially

ready for kids at any given

point.

But it would help down the line

when the kids are in school.

That would help.

But who knows what the costs

will be at that point

when I go back to work?

>> Right.

>> Who knows?

>> Marty, a possibility that,

you know -- How about

daycare assistance?

I mean, Dylan was telling me

that, you know, on top of,

you know, all of the costs of

living, he's got enormous

student loans to pay back.

I mean, there's got to be some

help somewhere for these people,

or, you know, the brain drain

is going to be the brain gain

for some other region

of the country.

>> Well, it's true.

The beautiful part about

Long Island is that, you know,

it's a great place to live, but,

again, we talk about the costs.

And...the reason why

the Long Island Railroad

is so packed today --

There's a lot of folks going to

the city to earn a living

because the wages are higher.

>> Mm-hmm.

>> And that's our problem here,

is that, you know, since 2000 --

I know, this year, wages

have gone up about 2%.

But since the year 2000,

there has been almost

zero growth in the actual wage

when adjusted for inflation,

so when you have a situation

like that where your take-home

pay hasn't really gone up

appreciably to keep up

with the bills --

which have gone up over 30% --

that's the issue we have.

>> Mm-hmm.

>> Our economics are all

screwed up here on the island

to retain the people.

So, again, you have

to start taking a look.

You know, there's an old saying

in management that

a chronic problem requires

structural solutions,

and we have chronic problems

on Long Island in terms of

taxation, costs of government,

our cost of living.

And we keep on putting Band-Aids

on it to try to make it work,

but it's time to take a hard

look at the structure

of how we live, how we govern,

to address those issues

or the chronic problems.

Otherwise, we'll be coming here

10 years from now talking

about the same thing.

>> Well, one stat I read --

7 in 10 Long Islanders,

millennials, say that they may

move in the next five years if

they can't find affordable

housing.

If that were to come to be,

what would we be left with?

>> Well, we'd be left with old

folks like you and me, Jim...

[ Laughs ]

...without anybody to pay

the bills.

So, that's what we'd be left

with.

Look, the fact is you need

young people to replenish,

you know, the population,

you know, the workforce,

and that's important.

We can't be exporting

our workforce to New York City

or exporting our workforce

to Austin, Texas --

where you'd probably find

a great-paying job --

where a lot of millennials go.

>> Mm-hmm.

>> You know, and there's

a reason for that.

You know, Texas has a very low

tax rate.

In fact, very quickly, you know,

the tax reform act that

Congress just passed,

well, I have a friend of mine

who used to work for a state

senator here on Long Island.

He lives in Texas.

>> Mm-hmm.

>> You know, and I had done

a program about the tax reform,

what it would mean

to Long Island.

So, he E-mails me.

He says, "Listen, Long Island

has high costs.

We love that tax reform in Texas

because there's --

The property taxes are lower.

The income -- No income tax.

The housing costs are lower."

So, we're in a place where

we can't get out of our own way,

and the legislation that's

coming down is hurting us more.

>> And the taxes from the

federal government,

that's going to kill us?

>> Well, that'll kill us also,

and even how the New York state

reacts to the tax reform --

you know, coming up with

gimmicks on how you can deduct

your property taxes.

Well, do you know this year's

budget, state budget, is

billions more than it was last

year?

>> Mm-hmm.

>> So, the spending keeps on

going.

The income -- You know,

the raising taxes

will keep on going.

>> And the debt keeps going up.

>> And the debt keeps on going.

And the fact of the matter is,

these folks are gonna be paying

the debt payments down the years

because when you borrow money

today, they're paying it back.

>> All right.

>> And they can't afford to.

>> All right, but I just --

I still don't see any solutions.

>> You know, there was an old

comic strip, "Pogo."

And Pogo said, "We've met

the enemy, and they is us."

>> [ Chuckles ] Yeah.

>> And that's the truth.

There are no solutions because

we're not -- Our leadership

is not providing it.

>> And do you think

the leadershipcould provide it?

I mean, if you had a czar, could

you fix the dilemma that we're

in?

I mean, we've got

pension obligations.

We've got billions of dollars

in debt in Nassau County.

I mean, how do you fix that?

>> If I had a magic wand, what I

would find is that one person

who doesn't want to get

re-elected, who only wants to

change things to make it

affordable, put him in office

for four years, and let him do

what needs to be done --

or her do what needs to be done.

>> So, Dylan and Ally,

where do you see yourself

in the next few years?

I mean, what do you see

happening?

>> Well, I would love to see us

in our own home, a nice home.

You know, a lot of the problem

is that, like, affordable

housing, $150,000 to $200,000,

it's affordable,

but most of the time,

they're foreclosed homes,

you know, fixer-upper homes.

And we could afford that, but

then we would have to afford,

you know, fixing them.

So, in five years, I would love

to see us if -- I would love to

see us on Long Island

and around our families

in our own home.

But it's so hard to really

foresee what will be.

>> Dylan, do you think you're

going to be able to stick it up?

>> It's going to be tough,

honestly.

I mean, to be honest, I do

believe that we will end up

moving somewhere else,

which is very unfortunate,

but I think that's where we

would need to start our family,

and then, obviously, if earning

income advances where we can be

able to come back to

Long Island, that's an option.

But being able to stay here is

definitely something I don't see

as, you know,the top option

for our family moving forward.

>> But we talked about a few

things -- your student loans,

affordable housing,

and, obviously, the more money

that you make, the easier

it would be to stay here.

>> Yes.

>> Do you see anything that

looks like a solution for you?

>> Unfortunately, no.

You know, getting aid from,

you know, governmental agencies

is something that would be very

helpful, but it's not

necessarily a solution,

you know, because there's...

With the population

of Long Island,

we're not the only people

that are asking for that aid.

There's a lot of other people

that we're in competition with,

and so a quick solution

is definitely not achievable,

especially with the continuing

rise in cost in just property

taxes -- not necessarily just

house value, but property tax,

which is a yearly expense, not

just a, you know, mortgage

expense doled over for 30 years.

>> Right, but if you had some

assistance, let's say, to bridge

you past the student loans,

if you had some assistance

to help you with affordable

housing over a period of time --

like very low-interest-rate

loans that, you know,

weren't going to cost you

an arm and a leg -- and if Ally

could go back to work, I mean,

would that scenario

in some way keep you here?

>> Absolutely.

>> It would?

>> Absolutely.

>> And, Marty, that would mean

that government would have to

step in with more financing

with money that we don't have.

>> And there's no free lunch,

because everything --

I'm always...

It's remarkable to me

that when the government says,

"Well, this is a free program,"

it's not a free program.

Someone'S paying for it.

And that's part of the problem,

in particular with New York,

is that all the free programs

are coming out of somebody's

pocketbook somewhere.

>> Right.

>> If it's not now, it'll be

down the road with debt.

Not saying that the programs

aren't laudable.

It's saying that

they're not free.

>> Mm-hmm.

>> So, the fact is, is that if

you want to make it, we start --

And I hate to keep on

beating a dead horse,

but we have to start changing

what our cost of living is,

the structure of how we live,

the structure of how we govern,

and to start reducing costs

rather than every year

looking at a budget that borrows

more and spends more.

And whether that be

in the local level

or in the state level or in

the school districts, you know,

stop complaining about

the 2% cap.

You know, you have more

than you need to live,

you know, and to educate.

Let's start finding a way

to reduce the costs.

And if you do that,

then these folks can stay here,

because the property taxes

never go down.

>> Yeah.

>> Well, that sounds

like a great solution.

I hope we live long enough

to see it happen...

>> Well,I'm going to.

I don't know about you.

[ Laughter ]

>> ...so that these guys

can stay here and be a part

of Long Island...

>> Absolutely.

>> ...because we need you.

You know, we need -- we need

the millennials to stay here.

>> Well, that's the workforce.

If we don't have them,

then Long Island economy suffers

significantly.

>> Yeah.

Well, Marty, Ally, and Dylan,

thank you so much

for being with us today.

Really appreciate it.

And that wraps up our

conversation on the issues of

millennials leaving the island.

And to learn more about

the "Chasing the Dream"

Initiative, please visit

chasingthedreamproject.org.

And for more on the

"Long Island Business Report,"

log on to our website.

You can also find us on Facebook

and join the conversation

on Twitter.

I'm Jim Paymar.

Thank you for joining us

for this edition of the

"Long Island Business Report,"

and we'll see you next time.

>> Funding for the

"Long Island Business Report"

has been provided by...

the JPB Foundation

and the Ford Foundation.

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