How Will New York Restart its Economy After COVID-19?

As the curve flattens, the focus now shifts to the economic devastation wrought by the virus. The state is facing record unemployment comparable to the Great Depression. New Yorkers are struggling to pay rent. Small businesses and lenders face delinquency. And landlords are bracing for the impact on all sides. So what’s next? Our partners at MetroFocus examine how to restart the economy with Crain’s New York Business Columnist Greg David.

TRANSCRIPT

>>> WELCOME TO "METROFOCUS" I'M

I'M.

RAFAEL PI ROMAN.

NEW YORK IS STILL THE EPICENTER

OF THE NATION'S CORONAVIRUS

PANDEMIC BUT THE CURVE HAS

FLATTENED AND THE FOCUS

BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE

ECONOMIC CAUSED BY THE VIRUS.

WITH THE STATE STRUGGLING TO PAY

RENT, WHAT'S NEEDED TO RESTART

THE ECONOMY, JOINING US NOW TO

HELP ANSWER THAT IS CHASING THE

INITIATIVE ON POVERTY IN AMERICA

IS THE DIRECTOR OF

THE NEW SCHOOL OF JOURNALISM

GREG.

WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.

ALWAYS A PLEASURE TO TALK TO

YOU.

>> ALWAYS A PLEASURE FOR ME TO

BE HERE.

>> SO, GREG, LET ME START WITH

THIS.

CAN YOU GIVE SUMMARY OF THE

ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE

LOCKDOWN FOR NEW YORK STATE AND

NEW YORK CITY?

>> THEY ARE DISASTROUS AND

THERE'S NO OTHER WAY TO PUT IT.

IN NEW YORK CITY SOMEWHERE IN

THE ORDER OF 700,000 PEOPLE HAVE

FILED FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE

IN THE LAST SEVEN WEEK S. THE

STATEWIDE NUMBER OF PEOPLE ON

UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS ALREADY IS

1.6 MILLION.

IT MEANS

WE PROBABLY REACH 20%

UNEMPLOYMENT.

MAYBE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN

THAT.

SO WHAT'S THE COMPARISON TO

THAT?

THE GREAT DEPRESSION.

WHEN NATIONALLY UNEMPLOYMENT WAS

SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 20

AND 25%.

NOTHING SINCE THE GREAT

DEPRESSION HAS BEEN THIS BAD AND

OF COURSE NEVER HAS AN ECONOMY

FALTERED SO QUICKLY, NOT EVEN IN

THE GREAT DEPRESSION.

>> WOW.

SO NO PART OF THE STATE WILL

BEGIN TO OPEN UP THIS ECONOMY

UNTIL MAY 15, AT THE EARLIEST,

IS THAT RIGHT?

>> YOU ARE RIGHT ABOUT THAT.

AND THE PROSPECTS FOR DOWN STATE

ARE FOR LATER THAN THAT.

>> WOW.

SO AS YOU KNOW, GREG, THERE ARE

THOSE WHO ARGUE THAT WE MOVE THE

GOAL POST ON THE LOCKDOWN.

HERE AND ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

THAT WHILE ORIGINALLY THEY WERE

MEANT TO FLATTEN THE CURVE SO

THAT HOSPITALS WOULDN'T BE

OVERWHELMED, THEY SOMEHOW BECOME

A NECESSITY

IN PEOPLE'S MINDS, IN LEADERS'S

MINDS, UNTIL THE VIRUS IS

VIRTUALLY DEFEATED, THERE BY

DELAYING THE ECONOMIC RECOVER I

WHY.

DO YOU THINK THAT'S AN ACCURATE

PORTRAYAL OF WHAT IS HAPPENING?

>> I KNOW A LOT OF PEOPLE THINK

THAT.

I THINK PEOPLE DON'T WANT TWO

SHUT DOWNS, IN ECONOMIC TERMS

THAT COULD BE JUST DEVASTATING.

SO IF YOU'RE CONVINCED THE VIRUS

IS NOT ELIMINATED AND WE GO BACK

TO WORK WE'RE GOING TO HAVE

ANOTHER REOCCURRENCE TO SHUT

DOWN THE ECONOMY AGAIN, THAT'S A

REASONABLE POSITION TO TAKE.

I ALSO THINK IT'S WRONG THAT

MANY PEOPLE ARE EQUATING PEOPLE

DIEING AND THE ECONOMY DIEING AS

A CHOICE.

WELL, IT DOESN'T HAVE TO BE A

CHOICE.

THERE ARE WAYS TO MAKE SURE THAT

PEOPLE ARE ABLE TO GET THROUGH

ECONOMICALLY WHILE WE DO WHAT'S

NEEDED TO BE DONE WITH THE

VIRUS.

SO WHILE ECK FONOMICS IS MY

SPECIALTY I DON'T WANT TO TRUMP

THE PUBLIC EXPERTS ABOUT WHAT WE

NEED TO DO SO THOUSANDS OF

PEOPLE DON'T DIE THE PRESIDENT

SAYING WE ARE HEADED TO 100,000

DEATHS, HE'S NOT THE ONLY ONE

SAYING THAT.

>> SO WHAT WILL IT TAKE IN THE

NEXT FEW MONTHS TO BRING THE

ECONOMY BACK OR TRY TO.

>> NOTHING.

THE MOST IMPORTANT STEP WE HAVE

TO DO IS TO MAKE SURE THAT AS

MUCH AS POSSIBLE PEOPLE ARE

HOME.

SO ONE OF THE GREAT PROBLEMS IN

THAT REGARD HAS BEEN EMPL

EMPLOYMENT -- UNEMPLOYMENT

INSURANCE SYSTEMS WHICH WERE NOT

CAPABLE OF HANDLING THE LOAD.

MAYBE WE'RE FIXING THAT IN NEW

YORK.

BUT WITH THE $600 FEDERAL

BENEFIT THE MAXIMUM UNEMPLOYMENT

BENEFIT IN NEW YORK CITY THESE

DAYS IS ABOUT $1,000 A WEEK AND

A LOT OF PEOPLE CAN GET BY ON

$1,000 A WEEK SO THAT MAKES AN

IMPORTANT EFFORT.

AND AS THE GOVERNOR HAS BEEN

RAILING ABOUT FOR WEEKS NOW AS

WELL AS THE GOVERNORS OF

CONNECTICUT AND NEW JERSEY THE

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IS GOING TO

HAVE TO HELP IN -- HELP THE

STATES DEAL WITH AN ENORMOUS

FISCAL PROBLEM.

IF WE DON'T GET HELP FROM THE

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WHAT WE'RE

GOING TO SEE IS WIDESCALE LAY

OFFS, SO CITY AND STATE WORKERS,

TEACHERS, ET CETERA, BECAUSE NEW

YORK STATE BUDGET FOR EXAMPLE

HAS A $10 BILLION HOLE.

SO IF WE DON'T GET THAT,

RECOVERING IS GOING TO BE REALLY

HARD.

BECAUSE JUST WHEN THE ECONOMY

STARTS TO PICK UP A MILLION

OTHER PEOPLE, HUNDREDS OF

THOUSANDS OF OTHER PEOPLE WILL

LOSE THEIR JOB.

THE THIRD MOST IMPORTANT THING

IS HELP FOR SMALL BUSINESSES.

THERE'S BEEN ENORMOUS COVERAGE

OF THE DISASTER OF THE SMALL

BUSINESS LOAN PROGRAM BUT I'VE

BEEN TALKING TO SMALL BUSINESSES

AND COLLEAGUE AND I HAVE BEEN

FOLLOWING SIX TO EIGHT

COMPANIES, NOT ONE OF WHICH HAS

GOTTEN A SMALL BUSINESS LOAN AS

OF THIS MOMENT.

WELL, IF SMALL BUSINESSES DON'T

REOPEN WE'RE NOT GOING TO HAVE

MUCH OF A RECOVERY.

I'VE BEEN TALKING A LOT TO A

PRINTING COMPANY IN THE BRONX

CALLED BRONX DESIGN, THEY SHUT

DOWN EVEN EARLIER THAN THE ORDER

BECAUSE THEIR BUSINESS DRIED UP.

IT'S A HUSBAND AND AND WIFE AND

THEIR DAUGHTER AND FOUR

EMPLOYEES.

THEY DON'T KNOW IF THEY CAN

REOPEN AND THEY HAVEN'T GOT A

DIME OF HELP YET.

SO IF BUSINESSES LIKE THAT CAN'T

REOPEN THEN THOSE FOUR PEOPLE

WON'T HAVE JOB THAT'S THEY HAD

BEFORE.

THOSE ARE THE THINGS THAT ARE

REALLY IMPORTANT.

>> QUICKLY, IS THERE ANYTHING

NOT DONE.

>> WELL WE NEED TO GET THOSE

SMALL BUSINESSES LOANS.

WE NEED TO GET THE UNEMPLOYMENT

SYSTEM WORKING SO THAT PEOPLE

ARE GETTING THE BENEFIT TO PAY

GROCERIES AND PAY THE RENT.

THOSE ARE THE THINGS THAT HAVE

NOT BEEN DONE YET.

AND OF COURSE WE NEED THE

REPUBLICANS IN WASHINGTON TO

AGREE, YES, THERE HAS TO BE SOME

AID TO THE STATES.

>> THEY DON'T WANT TO GIVE IT,

AT LEAST SO FAR THEY SAID THEY

DON'T WANT TO GIVE IT BECAUSE

THEY SAY ESPECIALLY THE BIG BLUE

STATES LIKE NEW YORK HAVE BEEN

PROVE GATED IN THEIR SPENDING IN

THE PAST AND THAT IF THEY WANTED

THEN MAYBE THEY SHOULD CUT THE

SPENDING.

DO YOU THINK THEY HAVE SOME

MERIT TO THOSE ARGUMENTS?

>> WELL, THAT DEPENDS, I THINK

IT'S A REALLY BROAD BRUSH.

ARE THERE STATES WHO ARE

MISKREENTS WHO HAVEN'T PAID

THEIR PENSION BILL, YOU BET.

KENNEL KEN, MITCH McMcCONNELL'S

STATE HAS THE WORST FUNDED

PENSION --

ILLINOIS ACTUALLY MADE THIS VERY

DIFFICULT BECAUSE THEY ASKED FOR

MONEY TO PAY THEIR PENSION BILLS

WHICH THEY HAD NOT PAID BEFORE.

BUT FOR MOST STATES IT'S ABOUT A

DECLINE IN REVENUE.

IT'S A DECLINE IN REVENUE THAT

THEY HAD NO ABILITY TO CONTROL

OR DEAL WITH.

>> SO YOU THINK THE REPUBLICANS

WILL BEND AND THE MONEY WILL

COME?

>> I DON'T KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN

ON THAT FRONT BUT I KNOW THE

PRESSURE WILL MOUNT AS

GOVERNMENTS CAN'T PAY THEIR

BILLS.

>> RIGHT.

WELL, IN SPEAKING ABOUT THE

STEPS HE'D LIKE TO TAKE TO

REBUILD THE CITY'S ECONOMY,

MAYOR de BLASIO SAID NEW YORK

CITY DOESN'T JUST NEED A RE

RECOVERY IT NEEDS TRANSFORMATION

FOR LONG-STANDING DISPARITIES,

SAME ARGUMENT SINCE TAKING

OFFICE IN 2014, WHAT DO YOU

THINK?

IS THIS THE TIME FOR

TRANSFORMATION IN OUR ECONOMY.

>> I TELL YOU THIS, THAT SPEECH

WENT OVER TERRIBLY OVER BUSINESS

PEOPLE, FELT COMPLETELY IGNORED

BY HIS TASK FORCE WHEN HE

OUTLINED THAT.

S ALMOST AS IF HE WANTS TO

PROCEED WITH REOPENING THE

ECONOMY WITHOUT INCORPORATING

CIVIC AND BUSINESS LEADERS IN

HOW TO DO IT.

SO I THINK HE SQUANDERED A MAJOR

OPPORTUNITY AT THAT POINT.

NOW, THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT THE

IN EQEQUITIES THAT HAVE BEEN ALS

EXISTING AND HAVE BEEN

DEMONSTRATED BY THIS AREN'T A

BIG PROBLEM AND I THINK EVERY

PEOPLE, EVERYONE WOULD RECOGNIZE

THAT.

BUT REMEMBER, ON ALL THESE

COUNTS, NEW YORK IS BETTER OFF

THAN OTHER PLACES.

WE HAVE A MUCH BETTER SAFETY

NET.

WE HAVE WAYS TO GET PEOPLE FOOD.

WE HAVE CASH PAYMENTS.

WE HAVE ENORMOUS PROTECTION FOR

TENANT THAT'S DON'T EXIST

ELSEWHERE IN THE CITY.

WE HAVE A ROBUST MEDICAID

PROGRAM AND THE DISPARITY

NUMBERS, WELL, THEY'RE NOT GOOD

IN NEW YORK, THEY'RE BETTER THAN

IN MANY OTHER PLACES IN THE

COUNTRY.

SO IT'S A TOUGH ISSUE BUT WE

HAVE TO ADDRESS THESE ISSUES.

BUT IF THAT IS THE FOCUS I THINK

THE REBUILDING AND THE RECOVERY

OF THE CITY WILL BE SETBACK, NOT

ENHANCED.

>> GREAT.

AS YOU SAID, IT'S TRUE THAT SOME

OF THOSE DEVICE HAS BEEN

REALLY -- OF THOSE DIVIDE HAS

BEEN REALLY EXPOSED.

THE DIVIDE WITH HEALTH CARE.

ONE GROUP HAS HAD GOOD HEALTH

CARE AND THOSE WHO HAVEN'T ARE

SUFFERING THE CONSEQUENCES OF

THIS PANDEMIC MUCH MORE.

SOME OF US CAN WORK AT HOME,

SOME CAN'T.

WITH ALL OF THE IMPLICATIONS OF

RISK AND THAT.

BUT LISTEN, THERE'S ALSO ANOTHER

DIVIDE, YOU TOUCHED ON THE

HOUSING DIVIDE.

ASIDE FROM THE LOSS OF

BUSINESSES AND JOBS, THE

ECONOMIC CRISIS THREATENING THE

LOSS OF HOUSING PARTICULARLY FOR

TENANTS.

AS YOU KNOW AROUND THE COUNTRY

AND HERE IN NEW YORK THERE'S

ACTIVISTS AND ELECTED OFFICIAL

WHO'S ARE SPEAR HEADING OR

PUSHING RENT STRIKES TO DEAL

WITH THAT PROBLEM.

IS THAT THE CORRECT APPROACH?

>> NO IT'S NOT.

I JUST SPENT LAST WEEK TALKING

TO SMALL LANDLORDS AROUND TO

CITY AN THE QUESTION I WANT

PEOPLE TO ASK IS SO WHAT HAPPENS

WHEN TENANTS DON'T PAY THEIR

RENT?

WHAT HAMS

WHAT HAPPENS TO THE BILLS

LANDLORDS HAVE.

IT'S AS IF PEOPLE THINK EVERY

LANDLORD IS A BILLIONAIRE.

WELL THERE'S LOTS OF PEOPLE WHO

MANAGE TWO BUILDINGS OR 150

APARTMENTS, THEY HAVE MORTGAGES

TO PAY, THEY HAVE MAINTENANCE

COST TO TAKE CARE OF, THEY HAVE

ENORMOUS PROPERTY TAX BILLS.

I TALK TO SOMEONE THIS WEEK

WHOSE RENT ROLL, 60% OF THE

MONEY HE COLLECTS EACH MONTH

GOES TO PROPERTY TAXES AND HIS

WATER BILL.

AND SO WHEN THE LANDLORDS CAN'T

MEET THEIR OBLIGATIONS WHAT

HAPPENS NEXT?

WELL LOTS OF TRADESMEN WILL LOSE

THEIR JOBS BECAUSE THEY WON'T

GET EMPLOYMENT TO FIX UP

BUILDINGS.

BUILDINGS WILL DETERIORATE.

MAYBE MORTGAGES WILL GO INTO

DEFAULT.

IT'S NOT A GOOD SCENARIO.

LOOK, PEOPLE NEED HELP PAYING

THE RENT.

THE UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS ARE

PART OF THE SOLUTION.

MAYBE THERE NEEDS TO BE BIGGER

SOLUTIONS.

MAYBE WASHINGTON COULD COME UP

WITH WAYS TO HELP PEOPLE PAY THE

RENT.

THERE'S ONE OTHER POINT THAT

TENANT ACTIVISTS HAVE REALLY

MISSED AND I THINK CREATED A LOT

OF TROUBLE.

WHICH SOMEONE FROM THE FUHRMAN

CENTER TOLD ME LAST WEEK, YOU

KNOW, IT SHOULD BE TENANTS AND

LANDLORDS TOGETHER GOING TO

WASHINGTON DEMANDING HELP.

TENANTS AND LANDLORDS FIGHTING

OVER WHAT TO DO WILL NOT LEAD US

TO A SOLUTION.

AND YOU KNOW, I -- THE SENATE

NUMBER TWO PERSON IN THE STATE

SENATE, MICHAEL GIA NERIS IS ONE

OF THOSE CALLING FOR A RENT

WAIVER BUT I NEVER HEARD HIM SAY

HOW WE'RE GOING TO FINANCE THE

RENT WAIVER.

I THINK THAT'S PRETTY

IRRESPONSIBLE.

>> YEAH.

ALL RIGHT.

WE HAVE LESS THAN A MINUTE LEFT

BUT I HAVE TO ASK THE QUESTION,

AFTER 9/11 THERE WAS SENTIMENT

AROUND THE COUNTRY THAT CITIES

WERE DONE, THAT THEY WERE

HISTORY, OF COURSE NEW YORK CITY

PROVED THAT WRONG BECAUSE WE HAD

A BOOM OVER THE LAST 20 YEARS.

DO YOU BELIEVE THAT AFTER THIS

CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC IS OVER

WE'RE GOING TO PROVE THAT WE CAN

REBOUND YET AGAIN?

>> I HOPE SO BUT I'M NOT

CONFIDENT.

I'M NOT CONFIDENT BECAUSE, YOU

KNOW, YOU'RE WORKING FROM HOME,

AND I'M WORKING FROM HOME, WELL,

AFTER 9/11 PEOPLE SAY WE WILL

WORK FROM HOME BUT THE

TECHNOLOGY WASN'T THAT GOOD, WE

COULDN'T HAVE DONE THIS

INTERVIEW AFTER TERROR OF 9/11

BUT TODAY WE CAN.

I THINK THE RISK IS GREATER.

PEOPLE ARE CONFIDENT THAT

THEY'RE SAFE IN THE CITY THEN I

THINK WE'LL BE OKAY BUT I DON'T

KNOW WHEN THAT WILL BE.

>> WE HAVE TO END IT THERE,

RICK, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR

JOINING US TODAY, AS ALWAYS BEEN

A PLEASURE.

>> BEEN A PLEASURE FOR ME.

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