James Carville

O/C: An old school Democrat responds to the new candidate at the top of the Democratic ticket…. This week on Firing Line.

 

BIDEN OVAL OFFICE: Nothing, nothing can come in the way of saving our democracy. That includes personal ambition.

 

After President Joe Biden stepped down from his reelection bid, Democrats this week quickly united behind Vice President Kamala Harris.

 

CARVILLE FROM INTERVIEW: She’s going to have to get good fast. She’s going to have to introduce herself because she’s really not that well known.

 

James Carville led Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign and advised top Democrats for decades.

 

CARVILLE MONTAGE: If I think of an old calendar I think of George Bush’s face on it. // Man you got to get down here and take control of this. Put somebody in charge of this and get this thing moving. We’re about to die down here!

 

Carville, known as the Ragin’ Cajun, was urging Biden to step down long before his disastrous debate with Donald Trump.

 

CARVILLE ON NEWS NATION: He’s too old! The country wants a different choice.

 

Carville is candid about how Harris fared as a presidential candidate four years ago.

 

CARVILLE ON FL: There’s no doubt her campaign in 2020 was just God awful. 

 

But can Kamala Harris turn the party’s prospects around? 

 

HARRIS: We are not going back. We are not going back. (cheers)

 

What does James Carville say now?

 

‘Firing Line’ with Margaret Hoover is made possible in part by: Robert Granieri, Vanessa and Henry Cornell, The Fairweather Foundation, and by the following… Corporate funding is provided by Stephens Inc. 

 

INTERVIEW

HOOVER: James Carville, welcome to Firing Line. 

CARVILLE: Well, Margaret, honestly I’m so glad to be here. I’ve always been a fan of the show. 

HOOVER: You were among the first prominent Democrats to sound the alarm about President Biden’s poll numbers and his ability to campaign. How do you feel now that he’s dropped out? 

CARVILLE: Well, I mean, I feel a great sense of relief. And, you know, this sounds self-serving, but I actually think, I think he’s a lot happier now. I just don’t think– You know, I’m going to be 80 shortly. I’m unfortunately familiar with the kinds of ravages of old age and its limitations. And, like you and few other people in the country, have some idea of what that job entails. And I just never thought it was a particularly good idea. And fortunately the president came to that conclusion. We’re in a different place now. 

HOOVER: Let me ask you. I mean, within 36 hours of Vice President Kamala Harris launching her campaign, she received endorsements from enough Democratic delegates to secure the nomination. And of course, you had warned earlier this month that there should instead be a mini primary process, and warned Democrats against anointing Harris…

CARVILLE: Right,

HOOVER: …as though– So have Democrats fallen in line behind Harris too quickly without considering alternatives? 

CARVILLE: Well, first of all, no. Now I will address something that I think is a problem. And that’s this over-giddiness in the Democratic Party. You’re in for a tough fight. I mean, it’s great. I understand people feel good. But don’t get ahead of yourself. You got a hard, hard campaign ahead of you. What happened in American politics is quite simple. People did not like the choice they were given. They wanted something different, and they got something different and happy about it. But that’s the extent of that it means anything. It’s not anything transformative, anything else. 72% of people didn’t like the choice. They’re glad to have a different choice. That’s where we are. 

HOOVER: Sure. But there is this question about whether the Democratic Party is being anti-democratic. Right? Why are you not concerned about that? 

CARVILLE: Look, can I give you an honest answer?

HOOVER: Please. 

CARVILLE: That’s about the stupidest argument I’ve ever heard. I don’t know of a single Democrat that feels disenfranchised right now. I really don’t. Look would– would I have preferred three weeks ago we had a little open thing and people could see the talent in the party. Yeah, but that’s not to be. And, you know, what I like about vice presidential speculation is that the choices are talented and they’re abundant. And that’s a good place to be. 

HOOVER: I mean, I don’t have to tell you. Vice President Kamala Harris  has never been highly popular in the context of her partnership with Joe Biden. 

CARVILLE: True. True. 

HOOVER: You know, her approval rating on average is actually slightly lower than Joe Biden’s. So why?– Can you just explain to the uninitiated how the Democratic Party has gone from doubting her viability as a vice presidential candidate, to fully embracing her as the nominee of the party to take on Trump in such a short period of time. 

CARVILLE: Look, it’s where we are. And people understand that. And if, you know, if ifs and buts were beers and nuts, we’d all have a heck of a party. But the only people that are upset where we are are non-democratic. Democrats are actually, for the most part, pretty satisfied where we are. We appreciate everybody’s concern for our party, but it’s our party. And we  kind of like where we are right now. And I noticed that Fox is terribly concerned that there’s a lack of democracy in the Democratic Party or this or that. And, you know, I really appreciate all y’all’s concern for us, but we’re actually not very unhappy people right now. 

HOOVER: Tell me about the path to 270. For Biden, it required winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, those blue wall states. The Harris campaign issued a memo this week that indicated they might have some Sunbelt states in play. Is her path to 270 the same, or is it a broader map than President Biden was looking at? 

CARVILLE: Look, if we’re able to do better in Arizona or Georgia or North Carolina, that’s great. But still fundamentally I see those three, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin as being absolutely critical. And, you know, hopefully we’ll do what happened in 2020. We’ll bring some new states along. That’s certainly possible. But the basic math does not change. 

VICE PRESIDENTIAL CHOICE

HOOVER: So what does that mean about who she picks as her vice presidential candidate? Does. Can she expand the map or solidify the map with a vice presidential candidate? 

CARVILLE: I think what you want in a vice presidential pick, as opposed to trying to get a state, is you want something that shows chemistry. I think in American politics today people want something new and different. And hopefully she makes a pick that uses chemistry as its chief motivator and not electoral math. Because I don’t think electoral math works that good. 

HARRIS’S APPEAL TO BLACK VOTERS AND YOUNG VOTERS

HOOVER: Look, if the polls are right. Trump has become significantly more popular amongst Hispanics and Black men in recent years. 

CARVILLE: Right. 

HOOVER: And Vice President Harris hasn’t fared particularly well with Black voters, at least in her previous presidential campaign. But do you think Democrats will expect that they will perform even better this time around with a black woman at the top of the ticket? 

CARVILLE: Well, no. They’re not, they’re not going to perform– In 2020 Black was 12 percent of the electorate. President Biden got like 91%. That’s going to be hard to replicate. Having said that, I do think, and a lot of people do, that she’s exciting people. She got 800– I saw this, which was impressive – 808,000 contributions overnight. Sixty percent plus were first time donors. I don’t know what it means, but it means something. 

HOOVER: It’s a measure of enthusiasm for sure.. 

CARVILLE: Yeah, it’s a measure of something. All right. And so there’s an entire mood change. But I, I don’t, I don’t think we can count on replicating the 2020 coalition. But I’m not sure Trump can replicate his 2020 coalition either. It’s always this: woe be the Democrats; the Democrats are falling apart; what happened to the Democratic Party? I got news for you. There’s nothing wrong. We haven’t lost an election in two years. Does anybody notice that? But the whole dinner party, or Republican intelligentsia is diagnosing our problem, and telling us what we need to do. Well, thank you. We’re doing just fine. Why don’t you give advice to the Republican Party because they can’t seem to win an election. 

HOOVER: I’m not so sure they’re taking any advice. Listen, can Vice President Harris put other demographic groups who looked like two weeks ago they might sit out this election? I’m thinking about Gen Z. I’m thinking about groups that were just not as motivated. Do you think she can put new groups of voters in play for this election? 

CARVILLE: I think she can do better. Yes, I do. I’m not sure– I don’t know Gen Z from Gen Y, but Gen something, but Generation-under-30 we’re not doing very well with. And what I’m going to be looking for when I read the –  I’ll probably give it to next week or the week after – I’m going to see what our numbers are under 30 compared to where they were. I’m going to see our Black number, what it is and what it was, and try to compare the two in my mind. And what I’m not going to be looking for and expect to see is perfection. But I’m hoping to see some improvement there. Because we were not doing very well in those two essential parts of the Democratic coalition. 

HOOVER: If you’re running this campaign, you would be noticing that Republicans are already honing their attacks against the Vice President. Harris. As two progressive, they’re pointing to her record when she ran in 2020, calling for removal of the filibuster so she could pass the Green New Deal, promising to ban fracking and offshore drilling. She had said she was open to abolishing ICE, Immigration and Customs Enforcement. 

CARVILLE: Right. 

HOOVER: That she was open to providing health care for undocumented immigrants. The hit is going to be from the Trump campaign and from the Republicans that she is dangerously progressive. How do you advise her as a candidate now? 

CARVILLE: First of all, every– You know, I don’t know how many business leaders said that Trump’s economic plan would ruin the economy. I don’t know how to tell you this, but you want to bet that all kinds of national security people, retired military people, don’t come out and say that Trump is a horrible threat to the security of the United States. I don’t know how to tell you this. He wants to get out of NATO. He has 26 women that credibly accused him of sexual impropriety. The other side gets to play. There’s this whole feeling that the only people to get to play this game are the Republicans, and that the Democrats are just doomed to sit there and get beat up by them. And I don’t think, I hope, I know I’m not going to play that game. And I hope that she doesn’t play that game. 

HOOVER: Yeah, but how should she respond to the attacks that she’s too progressive. Should she run as a centrist? 

CARVILLE: I can’t– You want me to respond to every one? The fracking thing. There’s been more drilling permits issued under the Biden administration than any other administration. I actually don’t know if that’s an accomplishment, but it’s in fact. The crime rate in the United States is down and down significantly since Donald Trump was president. That’s a fact. Okay. I mean, we can argue anything. 

HOOVER: So you’re arguing she should run as a centrist, then. She should run to the center, not as a progressive. 

CARVILLE: I don’t know, run to the center, run– I don’t know what that is. Triangulate. I think that she has a record. She’s gonna have to come up with some proposals. But I think a lot of it is going to depend on her ability to define herself. And I actually think that she’s going to have to introduce herself because she’s really not that well known. I mean, there’s a caricature of her on Fox News, but most people don’t know a lot about her. And of course, Republicans are going to try to introduce her on their terms. I don’t blame them. I’d do the same thing. And she’s going to have to get good fast. That’s all I can say. And I’m not very giddy about this. I’m not cocky at all. I think we have a tough election ahead of us. 

HOOVER: But James Carville– Would James Carville recommend that she run on her law and order background, even though she ran away from it in 2020 when she was in a Democratic primary? 

CARVILLE: Right. I think that she should. I think one thing that she should do–  She was attorney general in California and she had a very strong record on consumer issues. I think she should announce, ‘When I’m president, there’s going to be a Justice Department task force to investigate price rigging and price gouging that took place in corporate America.’ That’s what I think. Now people are gonna say, oh, that’s anti Corporate, that’s anti Wall Street. That’s. Okay. Go ahead. What I know if you think these people don’t rig prices, don’t have cutouts and way to talk to each other, I just disagree with you. 

NETANYAHU

HOOVER: The news this week also surrounds foreign policy. Of course, Benjamin Netanyahu is in the United States. He’s addressing a joint session of Congress. There’s some question about whether the vice president’s choice to skip that joint session of Congress is a signal or indication that she may take a different approach on the Middle East and Israel than President Biden has. What do you think? 

CARVILLE: Well, first of all, my own opinion on him, he’s a criminal. And I don’t think, I don’t think that they should show up. And I think he’s influenced American foreign policy to keep himself out of the the penitentiary. So if you want to know, the truth of the matter is I don’t think much of Bibi Netanyahu. And if I would have been her, I wouldn’t have gone to listen to him speak, either. 

HOOVER: Do you think her skipping the joint session of Congress can be interpreted simply as a snub to Bibi, not a change in Middle East policy or strategy from the Biden administration? 

CARVILLE: Well, that’s certainly the way I interpret it. Because I want to interpret it like this. I think there should be a Jewish state in the eastern Mediterranean in perpetuity. But I think Bibi Netanyahu is an ethical and security disaster of the first order. And we should recognize that. And U.S. foreign policy should be based on those two assumptions. 

KAMALA HARRIS’S WEAKNESSES

HOOVER: Let me ask you about something you told Maureen Dowd earlier this year. You compared Harris to a great baseball player with a lot of hype and potential that fizzles out in the Major Leagues.

CARVILLE: Right.

HOOVER: Has your assessment of her just sheer capability as a candidate changed? 

CARVILLE: Well a couple things Margaret… 

HOOVER: Or is it just where we are? 

CARVILLE: First of all, I have been told by numerous people whose judgment I trust that she’s really become a lot more self-confident, that she’s become, you know, much surer of herself. I saw her in Wisconsin, on television. And what I generally do is I turn the sound off and just look at the video. She looks self-confident. There’s no doubt her campaign in 2020 was just God awful. I know I’m almost 80. I think– I give myself a little credit in life. I’ve grown a little bit. I’ve learned something. I’ve acquired something I didn’t have before. And am I worried that she’s not, turned out to be not that great a candidate? I worry about everything. But do I have reasons to believe that she is going to grow into being a good candidate? I do, yes. I have no other choice. I mean,  all I can do is hope and pray. But I think it’s based on something other than a wish. But we’ll see. She’s got a lot, she’s got a lot to show. I mean she’s got a big job. No question about that. 

HOOVER: When Vice President George H.W. Bush was running for president, he appeared on Firing Line with William F. Buckley Jr. in a forum in 1987, and he was asked how he would differentiate himself from President Reagan. Take a look at this. 

BUSH: What I’ll tell you is, I’m not going to start, Bob, doing now that which I haven’t done for six and a half or seven years. We’re here to beat Democrats. And I’m not going to go down and fine tune differences with President Reagan. I’ve resisted it. I think it’s just taking something we’ve done and building on it, not going back and retroactively trying to distance myself from the president.

HOOVER: George H.W. Bush is one of four people in U.S. history who have successfully run for president as a sitting vice president. Why is this so difficult to do, James? 

CARVILLE: Well, I don’t know if that answer would fly today. 

HOOVER: Why not?

CARVILLE: I think we’re living in a different time than 1988. And it’s– you have to be very careful because you’re trying to be something new. But the advantage that she has with Trump in the race: she doesn’t have to do that much to be a candidate of change. No one looks at Trump and sees a change candidate. All right. And he always talks about, he wants to go back to the time that he was president. And I think Biden– I will say this very publicly. The best decision of the entire Biden presidency was just getting the hell out of Afghanistan. Just go. All right. Now it was highly criticized. And all of the people said the problem with Afghanistan was the exit. What I say is, no, it was the entrance. No one ever looked good losing a war. But she certainly would be entitled to say, ‘I’d urged to have a more orderly timetable.’ And all the elites and dinner party people would love that. 

HOOVER: She might get a few Republicans too. 

CARVILLE: She might get a few Republicans, right. Because Republicans get us in the war and then they blame Democrats, and Democrats get us out of war. But I’ll give Republicans credit they got us out of Vietnam, which was the stupidest thing we ever did. But that was a different time in American politics. And it was, as nostalgic as we might be for it, it’s a time that’s passed. And I think the vice president’s campaign is going to have to acknowledge that and adjust to it. 

ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT

HOOVER: You said recently a second Trump term could bring, quote, lawlessness on a scale we can’t comprehend…

CARVILLE: That’s right.

HOOVER: …and potentially, quote, the end of the Constitution

CARVILLE: It could

HOOVER: So in the wake of the attempted assassination against President Trump, there was a call from conservatives and Republicans at the Republican National Committee to – and you saw this at the convention, the Republicans convention – to bring down the rhetoric, to be responsible with the public rhetoric. And I wonder if you think it is exceedingly alarmist to call this next election existential. Or, if you really believe it…

CARVILLE: I do.

HOOVER: …unpack that for us. Why is it– 

CARVILLE: OK. Let’s back up. Did you listen to Trump’s speech, the Republican National Committee? 

HOOVER: Every single word. 

CARVILLE: Did you see anything unifying in the last 30 minutes of that speech? Because no one else did, if you did it. 

HOOVER: And his vice presidential nominee had heightened rhetoric that is –

CARVILLE: Right. So we had this unfortunate event in Pennsylvania. We also had an unfortunate event in Las Vegas. We had an unfortunate event in Uvalde. We had an unfortunate event in Buffalo. We had an unfortunate event in South Florida. The one thing that none of these events had anything to do with was exaggerated political language. None.

HOOVER: Right. 

CARVILLE: What it had to do was young males, all white, who couldn’t get a girl but could get a gun. All right. That’s the issue. All right. There ain’t nothing– This is nothing political. It may be time to tone down the language. It may be time for all of this. But these shootings have everything to do with access to guns that, by the way, were outlawed from 1994 to 2004. That’s the problem in the country. We’ve got too easy access to guns that human beings shouldn’t have, other than people that are in the armed forces. 

HOOVER: On the question of the existential, whether this election is existential. 

CARVILLE: Right. It is. 

HOOVER: Is it existential? 

CARVILLE: Of course it is. And they’re already–

HOOVER: Tell me why.

CARVILLE: Well, let’s start with Project 2025, of which all of his people are there. Let’s talk about getting rid of NATO and alliances. Let’s talk about him giving China the green light to invade Taiwan. Yes he did. Yes he did. He said we’re 6500 miles away. They’re 75 miles away. And if you don’t think that these alliances are critical to the United States, or that the chip manufacturing that goes on in Taiwan is essential to everything we do in the United States. If you don’t think our relationships of Western Germany are critical, if you think that we ought to get rid of the federal civil service. All right. If you think being a dictator from day one, on day one, is not a threat, we’re going to disagree on that. I think with every fabric of my body that Donald Trump represents a threat to the Constitution of the United States. He is a tremendous threat to world order. And I am scared to death about the prospect of him being president again. And I feel very comfortable in saying that. I don’t have any regrets, and I really don’t think that I’m going to have any in the near future. 

KEEPING UP THE MOMENTUM

HOOVER: In the first 24 hours of Vice President Harris’s campaign, she raised a record $81 million dollars. Democrats have been significantly less enthusiastic about Biden than Republicans were about Trump until now. What is the key for the vice President to sustain this excitement for her candidacy throughout the rest of the campaign? 

CARVILLE: That’s the key question. And the first thing is to recognize what happened. What happened was that people wanted something different, and that she just projects the fact that she is, you know, excited about the future. There was no policy that anyone was pushing, and there was no particular group that was behind it. It was just a general feeling that people wanted a different choice than Donald Trump and President Biden. And they got it. And there is some– Look, she’s going to get slaughtered. They’re coming out. They’re coming. And this is just part of the– no different than it was any other time. And they have got to get up and get ready. And they’ve got to be able to defend and attack at the same time. There’s going to be a time of struggle of definition as to who Vice President Harris is. And we better be ready for that. But I feel like we are in a better position today than we were Sunday morning. And we’re doing this interview on Wednesday, so I’ll take small victories where I get them. 

HOOVER: James Carville, American political guru, thank you for taking the time to join me on Firing Line. Thank you for your insights.

CARVILLE: Big fan. I had a speech with William Buckley in the late 90s. It was during the ‘96 campaign, and it was in Stillwater in Oklahoma State. So the guy was taking us back to the airport, and he said, ‘I have a capital idea. Why don’t we ask this young man to stop and get us a couple of scotches for the car?’ And I said, ‘yeah, that is a capital idea, Mr. Buckley. That’s a great idea. We can agree on that.’ And we had a double scotch. And I didn’t have the heart to tell him I like bourbon better. I just said, fine. I’m not going to argue with William F. Buckley. So I do, I do have fond memories of him, and I have fond memories of Firing Line.