Tony Blair

MARGARET OC: Former Prime minister Tony Blair responds to the populism that lead to Donald Trump and Brexit, this week on Firing Line. 

SOT ANCHOR: A victorious Labour Prime Minister at the gates of Downing Street

SOT MARGARET: Young, charismatic, and optimistic — Tony Blair swept into power in the United Kingdom, ending 18 years of conservative government

SOT BLAIR: Today, enough of talking, it is time now to do.

SOT MARGARET: His leadership style and move towards the political center often drew comparisons to what had happened on this side of the pond.

SOT CLINTON: He’s seven years younger than I am and has no gray hair, so I resent it but there doesn’t seem to be anything I can do about it.

SOT MARGARET: And he became the first Labour Prime Minister to win 3 consecutive elections. 

SOT BLAIR: I want to say this to the politicians and the people of Northern Ireland….

SOT MARGARET: His time in office marked by historic peace accords in Northern Ireland, humanitarian intervention in Kosovo and Sierra Leone and a strengthened friendship with the United States.

SOT BUSH: America has no truer friend than Great Britain. [Applause]

SOT MARGARET: Blair even convinced Britain to go to war in Iraq.

SOT BLAIR : To retreat now, I believe, would put at hazard all that we hold dearest.

SOT MARGARET: A decision that would tarnish his legacy.

SOT PROTESTERS: Tony Blair, hear us shout, time to get the troops out.

SOT MARGARET: Today, the globalism and centrism he championed are also tarnished, with far left and far right populist movements on the rise around the world. Now, more than two and a half years after the Brexit vote, there are still no concrete plans for how Britain will leave the European Union. These days Blair is on a renewed mission. 

SOT BLAIR: The term centrist is now used as an insult and the word moderate indicative of some form of political malfunction.I s this a ridiculous state of affairs?

SOT MARGARET: What does Tony Blair say now?

HOOVER: Right Honourable Tony Blair, welcome to Firing Line. 

 

BLAIR: Thank you. 

 

HOOVER: You were the first Labour leader to win three consecutive elections. Your party now has morphed into a new left that seems in many ways diametrically opposed to the principles and the values and the direction that you led it, culminating finally in the Brexit referendum in which the United Kingdom will sever its relationship with the EU. Where were you on June 23rd 2016?

 

BLAIR: I was in London watching it 

 

HOOVER: And you were obviously a strong supporter of the Remain campaign. Were you as surprised by the results of that referendum as you were by the results of the US presidential election several months later when Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton?

 

BLAIR: Yeah, I was, I was surprised in both cases 

 

HOOVER: Even though you had seen many of the same forces rear their head in your country?

 

BLAIR: You know, when I look back on that I think, no, you should have realized this was coming. But I didn’t. 

 

HOOVER: The work you’re doing now in the field of centrism and revitalizing the center really can’t be delved into until you understand the forces on the other side of it.  So, how do you define populism? 

 

BLAIR: So populism to me is —  is taking an issue that’s a genuine concern and exploiting it in order to create division, political enmity between people. So I’ve always said to people if you want to defeat populists you’ve got to address the underlying grievances because if you don’t address those grievances you’re just not — you’re not understanding why they’re gaining support amongst the people. They ride the anger, they don’t provide the answer.

 

HOOVER: How do you see similarities between the populism in the United States and the populism in the UK. Do you see that there is overlap?

 

BLAIR: Yeah, no, for sure. 

 

HOOVER: Yeah. 

 

BLAIR: I mean, it’s the same thing. 

 

HOOVER: I mean, immigration certainly is an issue here in the United States. Globalization, leaving people behind. These are some of the economic factors that you’ve talked about. But there also is a real concern and a real anger in this country for establishment politicians.

 

BLAIR: Yeah, absolutely. All of those things, liberal elites. Yeah, It’s exactly the same set of themes.  

 

HOOVER: do you think about the similarities between the New Left and in the United Kingdom and the New Left, the progressive Left in the United States, Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Do you see the similarities there? 

 

BLAIR: Yeah. The thing is, it is a populism of the left. And the problem with it is that it doesn’t have solutions to the challenges we face. It’s politics that in the end is a kind of protest. I mean, if you take for example classic one for the Left politics of the moment which is the abolition of tuition fees. Abolishing tuition fees would cost us roughly 10 to 12 billion pounds  a year. If I had ten to 12 billion pounds to spend on education in the UK, I’d be spending it on early years education for the poorest families. That is a progressive policy. You know, we’ve got to be honest about this, the people you would help most if you abolish tuition fees certainly in the UK would be more middle class and an upper class families. So you know the debate that’s got to be had in the left is what is progressive politics for the modern world?  

 

HOOVER: The progressive left in this country really believes they have solutions beyond free college tuition for all. Which is one of them. And there is the Green New Deal, which is a very popular resolution on the left right now. Have you had a chance to look at it?

 

BLAIR: Yeah. 

 

HOOVER: And what is your thought?

 

BLAIR: You would– you’re going to decarbonise the entire American economy in 10 years and not use market mechanisms to do it.

 

HOOVER: Sounds great, but implausible?

 

BLAIR: When I came into government one of the first acts was to sign the Kyoto Treaty. We were the first government to introduce measures on climate change. I mean, I’m a passionate believer in action on climate change. Passionate believer in it. But you’ve got to have practical policies.

 

 HOOVER: In 1977 Margaret Thatcher was the — she was the opposition leader and she was on this program with William F. Buckley Junior and here is her *clip”. 

 

THATCHER: In 1959, you could count the number of extreme left wingers in the Labor Party certainly on two hands. There were perhapsseven or eight of them. We knew who they were. We all rather thought that this was just an example of the eccentricity of British politics that allowed that kind of thing. 

 

BUCKLEY: The so called tribune group?

 

THATCHER: Yes, yes. And in a way, I was rather proud that this thing happened. Now, after this  last election, there more than 80 of them. The one thing about left wing politicians is they’re always fanatical. They never let go. It’s their religion. They go on and on. And although they are a minority of the Labour Party. About 80 to 100 out of some 300. They tend to dominate them in view. It’s the left wing. That I think has led the policies of the Labour party and your Social Democrats have not really argued with them. Although they’ve been in the majority, t hey’ve not been in the ascendancy.

 

BLAIR: Takes me back. 

 

HOOVER: Does it take you back? Or is what old is new?

 

BLAIR: I mean one part of what she was saying was in one sense true which was that there was a real move to change the Labour Party towards the end of the 70s early 80s. Yeah, you know, the interesting thing is now what she was describing — that wave of sort of leftism — has actually succeeded this time and taking it–

 

HOOVER: — has returned and is ascendant.

 

BLAIR: Yeah.

 

HOOVER: I mean Jeremy,  Jeremy Corbyn wants to nationalize industries, He wants to nationalize water. He wants a nationalized rail. He wants to pull out of NATO. These are all things that you were dramatically and diametrically opposed to the values and the positions that you stood for. How do you understand that now? 

 

BLAIR: Well, I understand it, but I don’t like it. [Laughs] You can see this again right round the Western world is the right’s become captured by a sort of nationalistic, quite narrow minded type of right wing politics and the left has moved further to the left. And you know that’s, that’s characterised by two things: a hostility to Western policy, in foreign policy terms, and in domestic terms. The debates in Britain — abolish tuition fees, nationalize this, you know socialism, bring it — bring it back. You know, this is — these are a big debate we’re going to have to have because in my view if the Labor Party carries on in this way it’s going to really struggle to win.

In the end, if you want to defeat the populism of the right you’ve got to have a strategy and a program that allows you to win and to govern effectively. And we do need radical change today.  We are going to face a technological revolution that is the 21st century equivalent to the 19th century industrial revolution. It’s going to change everything. And, you know, these are the challenges that are going to shape the future. And if we want to defeat the populism of the right, we’ve got to block off their attack on issues like immigration, and then we’ve got to develop an agenda that really rises up to the scale of that challenge.

 

HOOVER: To what extent are those grievances legitimate grievances that have reared their head in the populism as expressed in Europe and in England?

 

BLAIR: Yeah, so, I think they are legitimate. I mean, I think people have genuine worries about immigration. I personally think managed migration is a good thing for a country like Britain but people, we’ve got to be clear about this, people feel immigration has been happening without proper control. Their communities are being changed without their consent and so there’s an anxiety about this. There is an anxiety that people feel they’re losing part of their national identity under the pressure of immigration. And this is true all over Europe, by the way. 

 

HOOVER: There are some policies that were implemented during your premiership, certainly with respect to the Eastern European countries. Do you believe that that was the beginning of the anxiety around immigration?

 

BLAIR: I think the immigration anxieties started before. I mean, the record of my government on immigration is slightly rewritten now to make it all about the European migration. Actually, we took very strong measures to reform our asylum system.  You know, when those Eastern European countries joined in 2004, it did produce a big wave of migration from Eastern Europe. Now, I think if I’d still be in an office post 2007, I would have been looking at ways of mitigating that, though it has to be said that in the end these people have actually made a pretty good contribution to British society. 

 

HOOVER: Maybe you can help an American audience understand the United Kingdom’s skepticism towards the European Union.

 

BLAIR: Yes, so the skepticism by the way is Europe-wide, you know? It’s — the British had a referendum. But the same anxieties that gave rise to the Brexit vote you could find all over Europe today. I mean, it’s the biggest political union, it’s the largest commercial market in the world. We have a unique trading system. That means that you try and have the same rules and regulations governing commerce and trade and that means that Europe has a power that some people feel is inconsistent with our national sovereignty. 

 

HOOVER:  So are you  saying that the feelings that animated Brexit would there have been a referendum in Italy or in France or in Germany they might risk the same outcome as in the UK?

 

BLAIR: Yes, absolutely. I mean in Italy and France, for sure. Germany, maybe not. This is why the sensible way out of Brexit today is that Britain thinks again and Europe thinks again. I mean the smart thing is for Europe to reform and Britain to stay.   

 

HOOVER: Is the smart thing for another referendum to happen or is a smart thing for the — a 

renegotiation of the terms?

 

BLAIR: So, I think the only way you can change Brexit now is through another vote to the people. Now, if you leave Europe and leave that trading system, it’s a big adjustment for a country like Britain. It’s been four and a half decades trading within that system. That’s what I call the painful Brexit. On the other hand, if you keep close to the trading system, then you abide by the rules of Europe but you’ve lost your say over them because you’re out of the political decision-making. That’s what I call the pointless Brexit. So you’ve got painless– painful versus pointless. In the end members of Parliament will think the smart thing is to go back to the people.

 

HOOVER: Do you anticipate that as a realistic outcome?

 

BLAIR: Yes, I think it is now realistic. Yes.

 

HOOVER: One of the grievances of populism is that there are people who have been left behind economically and that their plight would be worsened. How does that —

 

BLAIR: — Yeah it’s a really interesting. 

 

HOOVER: — play politically?

 

BLAIR: This is somethi– slightly similar to the debates in America. The truth is the communities left behind or casualties of globalisation it has nothing to do with Europe. This deindustrialization process happened over many years, it happened as a result of technology, it happened as a result of the way the world’s shifting and changing you know, lower wage costs in other countries and didn’t really happen because of Europe. So Europe becomes a vehicle by which people express their dissatisfaction. But truthfully it’s not Brexit’s   not the answer to any of the problems those communities face.

 

HOOVER: How is populism a threat to liberal democracy. I’ve heard you say it. I mean do you believe that populism can be ultimately a true threat to liberal democracy into these systems? 

 

BLAIR: I think it can be. I mean look I’m basically optimistic this populism can be defeated, and by the way. If you take Brexit as an example I don’t know what’s going to happen with Brexit. I think there’s a real possibility that it can be stopped actually. But I think if there were to be another vote in Britain today-

 

HOOVER: Is it clear.

 

BLAIR: it would be one for remain 

 

HOOVER:  Is it clear though it would be for remain?

 

BLAIR: I personally think people if they’re allowed to think again will think again. And. If you look elsewhere in Europe. It’s interesting if you see President Macron in France pushed right down but now coming back–

 

HOOVER:– coming —

 

BLAIR: Because he’s engaging the French people. I think that there are ways that we can defeat this but if we don’t defeat it and it grows here’s the risk the populism poses to democracy in the end. It thrives on enmity it searches for scapegoats rather than solutions in my view and it creates a culture of division that if it carries on and you divide into two tribes of people who don’t listen to each other talk to each other or like each other, your risk at a certain point is that people say no you shouldn’t be in power. And at a certain point you then say well actually we need to fix this system so that you can’t get in power because you’re too dangerous to be allowed to be in power. If you go down that path you see some elements of this around reverberating around Europe for sure. You know that that could pose a threat to democracy yes.

 

HOOVER: The United Kingdom and The United States represent two of the longest existing representative democracies in human and history, and it seems that we’re paralyzed at the moment I mean the United States has had the longest government shutdown in its history most recently. You are focused on the center and revitalizing the center. how do you begin to think about strength in the center to combat the extremes. 

 

BLAIR: You’ve got to get the right policy agenda for the future.

 

HOOVER:  Is it only about policy though because how much of the expression of populism is actually about cultural issues that are Less fixable by specific economic policies.

 

BLAIR: Yes it’s a very good point but here is what I think. I think that the populism is part economic part cultural. I actually think the left tends to underestimate the cultural aspect of it. I think it’s very powerful. I mean you do have to deal with these cultural anxieties which immigration is obviously one but underpinning whatever slogans and principles you come out with policy prescriptions should be at a genuine intellectual basis the defeat of this populism will be a muscular centrism and that drives from the policy task which is to create a framework for understanding the future, governing it and making it work for people and that’s the key thing. And so in the end you know if if you’re not able to switch the conversation from the wall. You’re always going to be playing defense as a Democrat same with Brexit in the end the way we would defeat Brexit ultimately is by explaining to people that it’s not an answer to any of the problems that the country faces which of course it isn’t. 

 

HOOVER: one of the things about your premiership is that you are known as this consummate dealmaker. You are able to bring different sides of different parties together most historically in the good Friday accords Do you think that there is even a possibility for being able to drive that kind of consensus and deal making today in the context of Brexit. 

 

BLAIR: Yeah sure you could do 

 

MH: so how would you do that? 

 

BLAIR: The way I I would try and accommodate people who voted for Brexit is to say to them Look I listen I get it I get what your anxiety is. And so this is my my idea  is to have Europe make these changes around freedom of movement around immigration. We can ourselves tighten our immigration system considerably whilst understanding the benefits of managed migration because migration is done an enormous good for the country in fact. But it’s got to be managed and controlled the way you build the largest possible consensus is to take account of people’s legitimate concerns. Deal with them and then show them and persuade them there is a different and better way. The truth is that all the studies show this by the way is Brexit will affect worst those areas that  voted for it in the largest number. 

 

HOOVER: That’s right. I’ve heard you say that one of the jobs of the prime minister of the united kingdom is to get along with the United States president.  Were you prime minister today, how would you get along with Donald Trump?

 

BLAIR: Well, you know, where you disagree you disagree and you do so politely and– 

 

HOOVER: As you know our president can be quite ruthless

 

BLAIR: Yeah no absolutely but you know, but there are plenty of things that you can work on together, as countries. And you got to do that. Look, you’ve got to be grown up about politics in the end, if you’re the Prime Minister of Britain, and you know we face this challenge in Europe, you don’t always get on with the other European leaders but you’ve got common interests and you’ve got to keep your relationship strong and that’s you know you shouldn’t be in politics if you can’t work out how to do that.

 

HOOVER: On the Left in the UK, there is a troubling emergence of anti-Semitism. How do you explain the emergence of anti-Semitism in the New Left?

 

BLAIR: I don’t think by the way this is just a specifically British issue. I think it it arises from a left perspective on part of the left which is very anti-west it’s become very hostile to Israel. Singles Israel out for criticism. I mean if you look at the whole of the Middle East given what’s happened in Syria you might think that the state of Israel is not the main country to be criticized. But they focus on Israel, in a very very strong way, that morphs into a form of anti-Semitism of the left. They link with Islamist groups as well. And then what comes out of that then bleeds across into a much more traditional form of anti-Semitism. People talking about Jewish finance and so on. If you told me when I was leader of the Labour party we’d have a problem with anti-Semitism. 

 

HOOVER: How has this become ascendant within the party now.

 

Blair: i’d be bewildered

 

BLAIR: Because the hard left have taken over the Labour Party and with it comes these attitudes I’m afraid. And part of the Left is very intolerant and on the issue of Israel has become very extreme. And because they’re anti west they’ve formed an alliance with bits of the left the that are anti-West. You know, the way the people used to do in the 50s when people would support the Soviet Union long after it bombed on the left long after it became clear that it was brutally suppressing the rights of the people.

 

HOOVER:Right. Which actually brings me to sort of internationalism  and interventionism. I mean, part of your legacy is in Kosovo and Sierra Leone, a doctrine of humanitarian interventionism. 

 

Do you still support that sort of theory of intervention on behalf of humanitarian crises in the way you did previously. 

 

BLAIR: Yes but I think is hugely tempered by experience as well particularly post 9/11 in Afghanistan and Iraq frankly where You know the situation turned out to be infinitely more complicated than we assumed. which is not to say by the way that non-intervention is easy. 

 

HOOVER: The right and the Republican Party are really rethinking their role in international affairs specifically vis a vis Europe. And they really feel that Europe has taken more from the relationship with the United States the United States has gotten from it. And the argument they make is that as a result it has cost us more in lives and treasure and it is turn for the United States to sit back and let Europe do its own bidding. With respect to NATO what is the cost. Of the United States, not as a full partner in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and in Europe. 

 

BLAIR: Well it’d be very serious. If we, if the United States went in that direction and this is an argument we’re just going to take head on because it’s absolutely absurd the transatlantic alliance is vital for your security my security. We’re going to have a world in which China is going to become a hugely dominant power. You got resurgent Russian nationalism. You know you got all these issues and problems in the world the value system that binds America and Europe together is strong important needs defending. 

 

HOOVER: How do you make that case to Donald Trump who says it’s cost us too much.

 

BLAIR: Well you’ve got to distinguish between two separate things. It’s perfectly legitimate to say to to European nations you should be spending more on defense. I agree, but you know Britain has been a strong ally of the US. I don’t think anyone would say that we have not stood by the United States we have and the United States has stood by us and it’s done as both good actually. You know this that these alliances are enlightened self-interest. It’s not a question of you know I want to put my country first rather than this kind of amorphous alliance. No, putting my country first means being part of this alliance. it’s important that Europe understands that America looking after itself its own interests which is natural does not mean America. Ignoring the importance of this bedrock alliance.  America is not going to be the only center of power.

By the middle of this century. You’re going to have three giants in the world really important people understand that you’re going to America China probably India those three economies are going to be so much bigger than the fourth. Each one of them is gonna be so much bigger. So this is the reason for the European Union because if we want to sit at the table with the Giants and not get sat on by them we’ve got we’ve got to band together. The China America relationship will be crucial to the way the century develops. It’s better for America to have a strong Europe alongside it. 

 

HOOVER: do need to make the case for liberal democracy to new to a new  generation of people because the idea of representative government and democratic capitalism isn’t obvious but what’s obvious to a younger generation is its immediate failings. So what is the best way to do that?

 

BLAIR I think that’s a really good point. you’re going to have to go back and make the case for why is rule of law important. One of the things I’ve become mildly obsessed by is I see the world now having left office is the importance of the rule of law, independent media, democratic institutions. We’ve got to for example have a big debate about the media as well because there’s a problem with the media today and we’ve got to recognize this is becoming fragmented and partisan. And it’s a problem because in the end if it becomes like that and social media amplifies all of that because it’s is it it is itself a revolutionary phenomenon that’s going to reinforce this idea of politics splitting into tribes. So I don’t I’m not sure what the answer to that is by the way but it’s got to become part of the political debate. So we’ve you know if you support liberal democracy you’ve got to go out make the case and you’ve got to do it recognising that today you can’t take any of these things for granted. You know you’re gonna have to teach a new generation. 

HOOVER:  I just I don’t see it happening here in this country.  I don’t see it happening.

 BLAIR: You know the thing about the populism by the way. Is that it always reaches its limit. Because in the end it kind of won’t work. to the extent it works and it will work because conventional policy is being applied even if it’s wrapped around with an outsized type of rhetoric and to the extent it really is you know riding the anger with this populist wave in the end people will understand its not there aren’t solutions. So, I think you know the most important thing. I mean look I mean without as you say getting into your politics. I mean for the Democrats the big challenge is to find someone who understands why there were people who voted for President Trump and how you can pull some of those people over to your side. And the challenge for the Democrats would will be do they they go for populism of the left. To answer the populism of the right. Or do they try and you know recreate a strong center left position. Now obviously I think they should do the latter but that’s I think the key question for them and it will be the key question of the next presidential election

 HOOVER: From your lips to God’s ears. Tony Blair thank you for coming to firing line.

 BLAIR: Thank you

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