>>> WHEN SCIENTISTS TALK ABOUT

THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE,

RISING SEA LEVELS USUALLY TOPS

THE LIST.

NOW A NEW REPORT WARNS THAT

INCREASED COASTAL FLOODING AS A

RESULT OF THESE RISING SEA

LEVELS WILL DESSIMATE COASTAL

PROPERTY VALUES AROUND THE

COUNTRY, POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING

A SLOW-MOTION ECONOMIC CRISIS

THAT WILL HIT OUR REGION

ESPECIALLY HARD.

ACCORDING TO ANALYSIS BY THE

NON-PROFIT GROUP UNION OF

CONCERNED SCIENTISTS OVER THE

NEXT 30 YEARS RISING SEA LEVELS

ARE PROJECTED TO PUT HUNDREDS OF

THOUSANDS OF HOMES AND

COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES IN THE

U.S. AT RISK OF CHRONIC

FLOODING.

THE REPORT WARNS THAT THE

INCREASED FLOODING AND THE

IMPACT ITS EXPECTED TO HAVE ON

PROPERTY VALUES COULD LEAD TO A

WIDER ECONOMIC CRASH IN COASTAL

MUNICIPALITIES DUE TO THE LOSS

OF TAX REVENUE.

JOINING US NOW TO TALK ABOUT ALL

OF THIS AS PART OF OUR PERIL AND

PROMISE INITIATIVE ON HUMAN

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, IS

CHRISTINA DAHL, A CLIMATE

SCIENTIST.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

>> WHAT DID YOU LOOK AT IN YOUR

STUDY?

I MENTIONED IT BRIEFLY, BUT WHAT

EXACTLY DID YOU LOOK AT AND WHAT

DID YOU FIND?

>> WE'VE FOUND FOR A LONG TIME

THAT SEA LEVEL PRESENTS A HUGE

CHALLENGE TO OUR COASTAL

COMMUNITIES.

BUT THIS YEAR TERM THREAT TO

COASTAL PROPERTIES HAS REALLY

BEEN FLYING UNDER THE RADAR.

WHAT WE DID IN THIS STUDY IS WE

COMBINED PROPERTY DATA FROM

ZILLOW, THE ONLINE REAL ESTATE

COMPANY, WITH AN ANALYSIS WE DID

THAT MAPS OUT THE AREAS THAT

WOULD EXPERIENCE WHAT WE CALL

CHRONIC INUNDATION WHICH IS

FLOODING THAT HAPPENS AT HIGH

TIDE ON AVERAGE EVERY OTHER WEEK

THAT SEA LEVEL RISES.

COMBINING THOSE AREAS WITH THE

PROPERTY DATA FROM ZILLOW, WE

WERE ABLE TO QUANTIFY THE NUMBER

OF HOMES AT RISK AND THE VALUE

OF THOSE PROPERTIES AND THEIR

CONTRIBUTION TO THE PROPERTY TAX

BASE AS WELL.

WHAT WE FOUND IS THAT IN THE

RELATIVELY NEAR TERM, JUST THE

NEXT 30 YEARS OR SO, IF YOU'D

LIKE TO HAVE A MORTGAGE, THERE

ARE OVER 300,000 HOMES IN THE

LOWER 48 THAT ARE AT RISK OF

THIS CHRONIC FLOODING.

BY THE END OF THE CENTURY, THAT

NUMBER RISES TO ABOUT

2.5 MILLION HOMES AND IS BES

THAT TODAY ARE WORTH ABOUT A

TRILLION DOLLARS.

>> IS THIS RISK FROM FLOODING

BEING REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT

PROPERTY ASSESSMENTS OF THE REAL

ESTATE ON THE COASTLINE?

>> BY AND LARGE THE ANSWER IS

NO.

WE DO SEE SOME ISOLATED REAL

ESTATE MARKETS WHERE THIS RISK

OF FLOODING IS STARTING TO GET

BAKED INTO THE MARKET

PERCEPTIONS AND THE REAL ESTATE

MARKET.

BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF

INCENTIVES AND POLICIES THAT ARE

PREVENTING THIS FROM FULLY BEING

REFLECTED IN REAL ESTATE

MARKETS.

>> YEAH.

SO WHAT ARE THE AREAS?

WHAT ARE THE STATES MOST AT RISK

OF THIS PHYSICAL AND ECONOMIC

DAMAGE?

>> SO, FAR AND AWAY, FLORIDA AND

NEW JERSEY ARE THE TWO STATES AT

RISK IN THE NEXT 30 YEARS.

EACH OF THOSE STATES HAS ABOUT

60,000 HOMES AT RISK BY THE YEAR

2045.

TODAY THOSE HOMES IN EACH STATE

ARE WORTH ABOUT $26 BILLION.

>> WHAT ABOUT THE COASTAL AREAS

AROUND NEW YORK?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

SO NEW YORK IN THE 2045 TIME

FRAME HAS ABOUT 15,000 HOLMES AT

RISK.

ALMOST ALL OF THOSE ARE ALONG

THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LONG

ISLAND.

>> SO PLAY IT OUT FOR US,

CHRISTINA.

IF NOTHING OR NOTHING MUCH IS

DONE ABOUT THIS, WHAT WOULD IT

LOOK LIKE, AND CHRONIC FLOODING

HAPPENS, AND PROPERTY VALUES

FALL, WHAT FOLLOWS?

>> WELL, WE FEEL THAT SOME SORT

OF MARKET CORRECTION IS

INEVITABLE.

AND WHETHER THAT HAPPENS

QUICKLY, AND IS A SHOCK TO THE

SYSTEM, OR MORE GRADUALLY,

REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

BUT AS THE RISK OF FLOODING

STARTS TO BE REFLECTED IN

PROPERTY VALUES ALONG THE COAST,

WE EXPECT TO SEE PROPERTIES

BECOMING -- COASTAL PROPERTIES

BECOMING LESS VALUABLE.

AS THEY DO SO, THAT INFLUENCES

THE AMOUNT OF -- THE AMOUNT THAT

THEY CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOCAL TAX

BASE.

>> AND IT WILL REVERBERATE

THROUGHOUT THE ECONOMY.

LISTEN, WE ONLY HAVE A MINUTE

LEFT.

I HAVE TO ASK YO, WHAT DO WE DO?

>> THERE'S A LOT THAT WE CAN DO.

FIRST AND FOREMOST, WE NEED TO

BE WORKING ON CUTTING OUR CARBON

EMISSIONS.

THE MORE WE CAN LIMIT THE

LONG-TERM RISK TO SEA LEVEL

RISES, THE BETTER OFF WE'LL BE

AND THE MORE HOMES WE'LL BE ABLE

TO SPARE FROM THIS EFFECT.

BUT WE ALSO NEED TO BE PREPARING

FOR THE CHANGES AHEAD TO BETTER

REFLECT THE RISK.

>> QUICKLY, WILL WE INEVITABLY

HAVE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE

COASTLINES THAT ARE ENDANGERED?

>> FOR SOME COMMUNITIES,

RETREATING FROM THE COAST MAY,

UNFORTUNATELY, BE THE BEST OF

BAD OPTIONS.

BUT IT'S A TIME TO PREPARE NOW

AND TO START TO DEVELOP SOME

FRAMEWORKS THAT COMMUNITIES CAN

USE TO START THINKING ABOUT

THEIR OPTIONS, WHETHER THAT

OPTION IS RETREAT, OR DEFENSE,

BUILDING A SEA WALL, OR

ACCOMMODATING THE RISING WATERS

BY OPENING UP SPACE ALONG THE

COAST.

YOU KNOW, WE NEED TO BE HELPING

COMMUNITIES TO EXPLORE THOSE

OPTIONS, AND ULTIMATELY TO FUND

THEM AS WELL.

>> ALL RIGHT.

WELL, CHRISTINA, THAT'S ALL THE

TIME WE HAVE.

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US

TODAY TO TALK ABOUT THIS.

>> THANK YOU SO MUCH.