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ETHAN: everyone told me take a break for Christmas and New Year’s take a week off. And I did sort of, but you know who didn’t get that memo? Yeah, climate change. Happy Friday. I’m Ethan Brown. And this is tip of the iceberg, where I will break down some environmental news and then answer a question from our listeners on the air. submit questions via Patreon email or social media patron questions go to the front of the line, so sign up at patreon.com/the Sweaty penguin. 

ETHAN: This sweaty penguin is presented by Carolyn promise a public media initiative from the WNET group in New York reporting on the issues and solutions around climate change. You can learn more at pbs.org/peril and promise.

ETHAN: Winter Storm Elliot, as it has been named didn’t just ruin Santa’s sleigh ride on Christmas Eve. The storm which was called a bomb cyclone, lasted from December 21 to 26 and hit nearly the entire United States except the southwest. It caused nearly 7.5 million power outages $5.4 billion in economic damage and over 100 casualties. Winds hit 79 miles per hour, and snowfall hit 56.5 inches in the Buffalo area. And several cities across the country clocked record low temperatures with elk Park Montana, hitting a wind chill of negative 74 degrees Fahrenheit. Many regions also saw record temperature plummets on December 23. Seeing as our audience is mostly in the United States. I’m sure many of you lived it. I’m sure some of you are still stuck at the airport waiting for southwest to reschedule your flight home for Christmas. So I probably don’t need to elaborate too much. But yeah, that was a rough week for a lot of people. 

ETHAN: Now I know what you’re thinking, poor California, everyone else gets a bomb cyclone and they don’t. That’s not fair. Well, boom, we got one two, it’s still going on at the time of recording. But as of now, California has seen almost 165,000 homes lose power 17 deaths and historic rainfall that has prompted floods and mudslides. And to top all that off. My new slippers got wet this morning. So next time someone asks for a story of how climate change has personally affected me, you know, I’m coming in hot. 

ETHAN: There’s so many angles to take on these two storms. And it’s kind of impossible for me to adequately cover them here. It’s like trying to cover every grain of sand on a beach or every marriage of Nicolas Cage. So I’m going to try to stick to what might be most helpful for you all. We’ve talked before about how I think a lot of people get frustrated and roll their eyes when a bad storm happens. People are suffering and a bunch of activists jump on Twitter and go hey, look, it’s climate change. And well, scientists are getting better at performing analyses immediately after freak storms to determine what the link to climate change is. There is still a lot we don’t know, especially about winter storms. Climate change does do weird things. It makes average winter temperatures warmer and then slams us with a cold wave. It creates historic drought for California. And that dumps historic rains all at once. It looks like it’s going to lean into kiss you but then gets wide eyed and stares at you like a dead fish. All of that we know. But we really have to be careful with our language when we talk about specific events. And in the case of these two right now, we know what weather patterns caused them. We know how climate change could be impacting those weather patterns more generally. But we can’t say specifically climate change made this storm X percent worse just yet. So that’s what I want to explore today. How much climate talk is fair right now. 

ETHAN: Quick side note. I’m not a meteorologist and I found a lot Out of the news coverage of these storms to be really confusing, kind of giving me one sentence quotes from meteorologists explaining the storms and language that was way above my head. I did take classes on this stuff in college. So that helped me put this together for you guys. But seeing as my knowledge is limited, and I found a lot of other coverage to be confusing, it’s possible I miss explain or oversimplify something. I hope I don’t. I am confident that the gist of this will be accurate and hopefully helpful. But I am sorry, if I trip up slightly along the way, I promise I did my best winter storms are just really tricky to wrap my head around. 

ETHAN: So as I understand it, both of these storms start from our good friend the Coriolis effect. You might remember that term from when we talked about hurricane II in hurricane Fiona, the California heatwave or the Alaska typhoon back in September. But since it’s been a few months, let’s break it down again. Sadly, I don’t have a song parity for Maddie queued up. So if we did, I think it would be along the lines of Coriolis definition make them boys go loco. 

ETHAN: Anyway, last I checked, Earth is a sphere. That said I kind of wish it wasn’t a sphere. I mean, if everyone else was right in 1492, and Christopher Columbus fell off the edge of the earth. And so what I can only assume is a stampede of hyenas. I don’t know I think history class would have been a lot more fun. Unfortunately, though, Earth is a sphere and it rotates from west to east. Now picture how that rotation looks on a globe. If you’re standing on the equator, one day or one rotation of the Earth means you have to go a really long distance. But if you put your finger on, say the Washington Monument and rotate your globe, or as urban dictionary calls it docking, that rotation is a much shorter distance. Since it’s closer to the top of the sphere. If you put your finger on the North Pole and rotate the globe, your finger won’t move at all. what all that means is people and stuff on the equator are actually moving through space faster, then stuff up north and stuff down south. 

ETHAN: That principle is responsible for a lot of weather systems we encounter. Let’s start basic. Let’s say we have a low pressure system form in the northern hemisphere. Now I’m a cloud by the equator. I want to leave because all the other clouds thought I was annoying because I wouldn’t stop complaining about the New York Jets losing to the Miami Dolphins third string quarterback when the Steelers needed them to win that game to make the playoffs. Joe Flacco you want a Super Bowl you can’t beat the dolphins for us. Anyway, where am I, the disgruntled cloud going to go, I’m going to go north into that area of low pressure that because I at the equator, and moving faster than the low pressure system. I’m going to end up overshooting my momentum is going to swing me east in front of the low pressure system. And if I’m a cloud north of our low pressure system, I’m going to want to go south into the area of low pressure. But because I am moving slower than the low pressure system, I’m going to end up under shooting and I’ll actually swing behind the low pressure system to the west. So we’ve got cloud swinging in front from the south cloud swinging behind from the north. And now they’re swirling together, creating counterclockwise winds when that happens in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, that can intensify into a hurricane, and the Katrina’s Maria’s and eons of the world that have their names tied to a deadly disaster for the rest of their lives, flawless system.

ETHAN: But that process, called the Coriolis effect, is responsible for more than just hurricanes. In general, winds that come up north from the equator get pulled to the east due to the shifting momentum. And as a result of that, if we look in the upper atmosphere, there are continuous gusts of wind traveling from west to east called jet streams. Contrary to popular belief, jet streams are not the cutaway of the New York Jets losing to the Miami Dolphins third string quarterback though those jet streams are just as frustrating The jet stream we’ll talk about today is the polar jet stream, which is around 50 to 60 degrees north and latitude and acts as a buffer between freezing cold air in the Arctic and more comfortable air we experience here in the United States. The polar jet stream doesn’t travel in a straight line though. She’s a quirky girl, guys, she knits sock puppets and has a tomato garden deal with it. The jet stream is wavy because of mountains. And because different places may have different temperatures. And at times, those obstacles can send the jet stream way north or way south. 

ETHAN: So what happened in the United States at the end of December? Well, the CNN team sobered up for New Year’s Eve and I jinxed all of 2023 by tweeting that it would be a great year. But beyond that, the polar jet stream got really wavy. In fact, it got so wavy that it dipped into the United States and exposed most of the country to that freezing polar air that caused the cold temperatures. But on top of that, when you have freezing cold air beating warm air, so suddenly like that, you can create a low pressure system. And then that same process that forms a hurricane kind of took place. winds from the south moved into the system, but got swung east winds from the north moved into the system, but got swung West. And suddenly we had a winter cyclone repping. Across the United States, a term bomb cyclone references the fact that the pressure dropped really fast in that weather system. Unfortunately for Christmas travelers, whenever they said the word bomb cyclone in front of a TSA agent, they were immediately whisked away and taken to airport jail. And it’s a good thing. There isn’t a TSA agent in my apartment because Wait, did you hear something? Oh, God, I can’t even say bomb in the privacy of my own home. 

ETHAN: How about California? Well, over here, an area of low pressure built up in the Northeast Pacific leading to a another bomb cyclone. But this storm played out differently. Because at the same time as all of that, we had the jet stream dipping way down into the Pacific picking up moisture over by Hawaii and carrying that moisture over to California. That particular weather system is called the Pineapple Express. And it is responsible for almost all of the very little rain that we get here in California. And honestly, we should be naming more weather systems after movies about Seth Rogen getting stoned. I mean a day with a 50% chance of rain can be called 5050. A day with a bad earthquake can be called this as the end and a day with great beach weather can be called Sausage Party. Let’s make it happen. So the Pineapple Express was chugging along, but because of the low pressure system, those winds just started flying into California and dumping all this water on the state. So that’s my best understanding of how these two weather events happened. Again, not the meteorology expert I may have oversimplified but I hope this is like 95% solid. 

ETHAN: Now what’s the link to climate change? Again, the science isn’t out yet on how climate change affected these events individually. But we do know some useful things. First, research suggests that climate change makes the jet stream wavier than it otherwise would be. Remember the way Venus is caused in part by temperature differences across regions. And climate change does not warm the planet uniformly. Some areas get hotter, some get colder, and some areas decide it makes sense to put every single Burger King right across the street from a McDonald’s seriously spread them out. Furthermore, the Arctic is warming at a faster rate than most of the world, meaning the buffer that the polar jet stream creates is getting thinner and thinner. By creating more of this variation in the jet stream and disrupting that buffer, we start to see more cold air escaping into the United States creating those extreme cold waves. 

ETHAN: There’s also research suggesting atmospheric rivers like the Pineapple Express may be getting longer and wider due to climate change, particularly in mid latitudes. That makes some sense. In addition to the jet stream dipping down more often, ocean temperatures are getting warmer, which is going to lead more water to evaporate and put more energy into a given weather system. Although Now that I think about it, if we’re naming a weather system that is ending a historic drought after a stoner Seth Rogen movie, we should really be naming it 40 Year Old Virgin.

ETHAN: So did climate change cause these storms? No. Did it influence these storms? Probably yeah. But I completely understand why people get annoyed when a link is made really casually. This episode is kind of the extent of what we know, at least what I could find. So anyone who rolls their eyes at excessive climate talk, keep an open mind. I appreciate the critical thinking. But there is a strong chance climate change played in and on the flip side, if you leaped to climate change immediately, let’s take a breath and be sure we’re expressing that link with the appropriate nuance and terminology. So I wish I had time to get into more angles today but I know other reporters are doing that and I wanted to do something different. So I hope this was helpful, at the very least more helpful than Joe Flacco.

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ETHAN: The Sweaty penguin is presented by perilymph promise a public media initiative from the WNET group in New York reporting on the issues and solutions around climate change. You can learn more at pbs.org/perilymph Promise

ETHAN: Welcome back to tip of the iceberg. It’s time for Ask Me Anything where our listeners get a chance to ask me any environmental questions they may have. Submit questions on our Patreon email or social media questions from patrons go to the front of the line. So be sure to sign up today at patreon.com/the Sweaty penguin.

ETHAN: And we’ve got a special treat today. We have one of our listeners on the line Blair. Blair, how are you?

BLAIR: I’m good. How are you? Thanks for having me.

ETHAN: I’m good. Thanks for being here. So you have a question for us.

BLAIR: Sure. Yeah. So on Christmas Eve, I was supposed to have a flight from Florida to Cleveland and I went to the airport, waited and waited and waited, it got canceled. Then they rebooked me on Christmas Day. But when they rebooked me from Florida to Cleveland, it had a layover in Baltimore. Well, they delayed my flight for over two hours. And I would have missed my connection in Baltimore to Cleveland. So I had to get on another flight on another airline, and it was so expensive. It was ridiculous. And it was the only thing I could do. So I can make it home in time to see my family at all for Christmas. Now, is the airline responsible for any sort of like, can they help me out because they had so many cancellations? Do they give me a voucher like what can I expect from them? Anything?

ETHAN: Was it southwest?

BLAIR: Yeah.

ETHAN: I asked because it actually kind of helps explain why all of this happened. So most airlines use what’s called a hub and spoke system where, like, for example, I was flying Delta going from LA back to New York, and I had a layover in Atlanta. And I think often we complain about layovers, but how that ends up helping is delta Scott there Atlanta hub. And so when there’s a storm and one flight crew stranded somewhere, what have you. There’s flight crews on standby, or they’re all their planes are nearby Atlanta so they can get another plane if they need to. So there’s a lot more flexibility when there’s some sort of mess that happens. Southwest uses what’s called a point to point system, which is nice because you don’t really have the layovers But basically, there isn’t a hub. So you can fly from, like, What did you say Florida to Cleveland, it was Orlando to Cleveland to Cleveland. So those are two smaller metropolitan areas. And no other airline is probably offering flights from Orlando to Cleveland, because that neither of those are hubs. But Southwest does that. The problem is, they have this super intricately planned map of flights, that when one goes wrong, everything falls apart so quickly, because you that’s just so hard to coordinate, it’s easier to fly planes into the hubs and then kind of go from there. And if you need to regroup, you can regroup a lot faster. So that’s why southwest just fell apart when the storm hit. And I think a lot of the other airlines, I mean, we had canceled flights, my flight got delayed, but it was pretty remarkable, in my opinion, to see how well the other airlines fared. So to Oh, one other note, I wanted to add about the hub and spoke, it also reduces emissions from the planes, because it’s almost like carpooling in a way like people are kind of going in the same direction, as opposed to having to do all these different extra small flights. My flight home from Atlanta was actually like one of the massive planes I usually see like going to Europe, which was wild. But you think about if you get all those people on that plane, you’re reducing the emissions as opposed to having two or three planes. So that was pretty cool. To answer your question, I’m not an expert. But from what I’ve read, I think there is absolutely the ability to get financial compensation. And I believe Southwest is going to be kind of individually going through each claim. So it might take a ridiculous amount of time. But absolutely go through that process. You deserve your money back, and then some that really sucks to have to miss holiday time. So I’m sorry that happened. But I hope that that can at least help in some way.

BLAIR: Yeah, it’s crazy that I mean, I didn’t even get a voucher or anything. My luggage got all messed up. And I mean it. It was a nightmare. And to have that happen over Christmas. It’s just, you know, the biggest headache ever. And you know, just really unfortunate. So that’s interesting, though, about the hub situation. I didn’t know that. So thank you for that.

ETHAN: Yeah, of course. And I think knowing this, I mean, this is kind of Southwest’s thing. So it’s hard to see them transitioning away from that, but at the same time, like we know, climate change is gonna make more and more of these storms happen. So they do need to start to think about how are we going to weather that if we’re not doing this hub and spoke system?

BLAIR: Yeah, that’s, that’s really interesting that that all happens. So I definitely learned a lot from this situation. I’m not going to be running back to Southwest. But that’s for sure.

ETHAN: There you go. Well, thanks so much for the question. Blair. I really appreciate it.

BLAIR: No, I love your podcast. Thanks for having me.

ETHAN: That was awesome. Thank you so much.

ETHAN: And with that, thanks to all of you who listen to tip of the iceberg. Take two minutes help out the show and get a shout out at the end of the show. By leaving a five star rating and a review on Apple or podcast addict or join our patreon@patreon.com slash the sweaty penguin. You get merch bonus content, and your questions moved to the front of the line for tip of the iceberg. This bloody penguin is presented by peril and promise a public media initiative from the WNET group in New York, reporting on the issues and solutions around climate change. You can learn more at pbs.org/peril and promise. The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions or views of Carolyn promise or the WNET group. Thank you all for listening. And I’ll see you on Friday for a deep dive on drought.