>> ERIC: THE FIRST BIG TEST OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SEASON IS BEHIND US.

REPUBLICANS CAUCUSED IN IOWA EARLIER THIS WEEK AND AS MOST OBSERVERS EXPECTED, FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP FINISHED FIRST, FAR AHEAD OF THE REST OF THE PACK.

DEMOCRATS HAVE CHOSEN THE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY EARLY NEXT MONTH AS THEIR FIRST BIG CONTEST.

MEANWHILE CONGRESS HAS ONCE AGAIN PASSED A FUNDING BILL THAT KEEPS THE GOVERNMENT RUNNING UNTIL MARCH.

AND HOUSE REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP ONCE AGAIN HAD TO RELY HEAVILY ON DEMOCRATS TO PASS THAT BILL.

OUR PERSPICACIOUSOUS POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSORS ARE HERE.

LARRY JACOBS HEADS UP THE CENTER FOR POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE AT THE U OF M'S HUMPHREY SCHOOL.

DAVID SCHULTZ TOILS AWAY TEACHING POLITICAL SCIENCE AT HAMLINE UNIVERSITY AS WELL AS TEACHING LAW AT THE U OF M. AND FROM DULUTH CINDY RUGELEY HEADS UP THE POLITICAL SCIENCE DEPARTMENT AT UMD.

PROFESSOR RUGELEY, HOW COULD IT BE THAT THE IOWA RESULTS WERE RELEASED LIKE BEFORE PEOPLE WERE EVEN VOTING?

IS THIS ANOTHER KIND OF BLACK MARK FOR THE IOWA CAUCUSES, OR HOW DID YOU SEE IT?

>> WELL, IT IS A LITTLE BIT OF POOR FORM.

BUT ON CAUCUSES, THE MEDIA DOES INTERVIEWS, ENTRY INTERVIEWS RATHER THAN EXIT INTERVIEWS SO THEY PROBABLY HAD A PRETTY GOOD IDEA GOING IN WHAT WAS HAPPENING.

THEY WERE ABLE TO SAY BASED ON TALKING TO PEOPLE WHO WERE GOING IN TO CAST THEIR BALLOTS, THEY HAD A REAL GOOD IDEA WHAT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN, PARTICULARLY IN A RACE LIKE THAT WHERE IT WASN'T PARTICULARLY CLOSE.

>> Eric: WHAT DO YOU -- IS IT AN ANACHRONISM THAT THESE THINGS STILL EXIST, THE IOWA CAUCUS IS NUMBER ONE FOR REPUBLICANS?

>> YOU KNOW, I THINK IT'S A REAL PROBLEM AND THE DEMOCRATS ARE WRESTLING WITH IT.

REPUBLICANS HAVE TO WRESTLE WITH IT.

15% OF REGISTERED REPUBLICANS PARTICIPATED.

AND THEY'RE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER REPUBLICANS, BECAUSE THERE'S MORE EVANGELICAL, MORE CONSERVATIVE.

AND THEIR INFLUENCE IN THE NOMINATION PROCESS IS COMPLETELY OUT OF WHACK.

I MEAN, TO BE HONEST ABOUT IT, THIS IS A MONEY GENERATING OPERATION, HAVING THE CAUCUSES IN IOWA BRINGS IN SPECIAL INTERESTS, IT BRINGS IN THE POLITICIANS LOOKING FOR FAVORABLE SUPPORT IN THE STATE.

IT NEEDS TO BE REALLY I THINK ROLLED BACK.

>> YEAH, THE ESTIMATE IS AND AGAIN LOOKING AT ESTIMATE HERE, ABOUT $130 MILLION WAS SPENT IN TERMS OF ADVERTISING ET AL., OF WHICH, BY THE WAY, GOVERNOR DESANTIS WE THINK SPENT ABOUT 80 MILLION OF IT OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.

BUT YOU'RE RIGHT IT'S A MONEY MAKER FOR THEM MUCH IN THE SAME WAY WHEN WE ELIMINATED OUR CAUCUSES IN THE STATE IT WAS THE SAME THING AS WE LOOK AT 15% SHOW UP AT CAUCUS, PRIMARY, MAYBE 40, 45% OR SOMETHING THE PRIMARIES ARE MUCH, MAYBE NOT IDEA, BUT A BETTER REPRESENTATION.

SO YOU'RE RIGHT, WE'RE GETTING A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF SMALL PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE IN A STATE THAT'S NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE UNITED STATES HAVING AN OUTSIDE INFLUENCE.

>> TRUMP WON BIG IN IOWA AND DESANTIS AND HALEY ARE LIMPING INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE.

PROFESSOR RUGELEY, DOES FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP FACE SOME HEADWINDS HE'S NOT EXPECTING IN IN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THAT PRIMARY NEXT WEEK?

>> WELL, A LOT OF PEOPLE THINK AND A LOT OF POLLING SHOWS THAT THIS MIGHT BE HALEY'S BEST CHANCE TO BEAT HIM IN A PRIMARY.

WILL IT BE DERAILING?

I DON'T KNOW, IT'S SOMETHING THAT YOU CAN PAY ATTENTION TO BECAUSE HE'S FIRED OFF SOME MESSAGES ON HIS SOCIAL MEDIA APP.

ALSO, YOU SEE HIM REALLY PUTTING A LITTLE BIT MORE EMPHASIS INTO SOUTH CAROLINA NOW, LINING UP LIKE TIM SCOTT TO SEE IF HE CAN GET HIS ENDORSEMENT.

SO, YEAH, I THINK HE CAN -- I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE A CLOSER PRIMARY THAN HE LIKES AND SHE COULD QUITE POSSIBLY WIN IT.

SHE HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GOVERNOR THERE.

AND IT'S A PRIMARY AND IT'S BEEN POINTED OUT PREVIOUSLY, THOSE TEND TO ATTRACT MORE VOTERS AND PERHAPS VOTERS WHO ARE A LITTLE LESS ON, YOU KNOW, ON THE MORE EXTREME END OF THE PARTY.

SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING IN THAT RESPECT.

>> Eric: I'D LIKE TO TALK ABOUT THE EARLY VOTING FOR THE MINNESOTA PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY, WHICH STARTED TODAY.

AND ONE OF THE -- LET ME MAKE SURE I HAVE THIS RIGHT.

UNLIKE THE REGULAR STATE PRIMARY, YOU HAVE TO DECLARE REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT HERE.

AND THEN THAT LIST OF PEOPLE GOES TO THE PARTICULAR PARTY.

THAT SEEMS LIKE A GOLD MINE LIST FOR GET OUT THE VOTE AND OTHER PARTY ACTIVITIES?

>> YEAH, NO, IT'S DEFINITELY A PART INSIDER DEAL.

AND THOSE LISTS ARE VALUABLE.

PEOPLE SELL THOSE LISTS.

THEY CONSTRUCT THEM AND SELL THEM.

SO, YES, I THINK THIS WAS, YOU KNOW, IT'S A BIG HELP TO EACH PARTY.

THEY'RE GOING TO GAIN FROM IT.

IT'S NOT THAT GREAT FOR THIRD PARTIES THAT ARE TRYING TO START UP, SO IT'S ANOTHER WAY IN WHICH THE TWO MAJOR PARTIES TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT OR GET AN ADVANTAGE OVER THE, YOU KNOW, THE OTHER THIRD PARTIES.

>> Eric: WOULD IT DISCOURAGE TURNOUT?

IT'S NOT PUBLIC BUT IT DOES GO TO THE PARTIES.

>> I THINK IT HAS SOME IMPACT IN TERMS OF DISCOURAGING BECAUSE WE DO HAVE IN HIS STATE SORT OF A RELATIVELY DECENT PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION WHO CONSIDERS THEMSELVES TO BE INDEPENDENT, DEPENDING ON THE POLLS, PO, 35% OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.

BUT I WANT TO COME BACK AND SAY ONE MORE THING SINCE WE'RE TALKING ABOUT INDEPENDENTS HERE.

I THINK ONE OF THE BIG THINGS TALKING ABOUT NEW HAMPSHIRE I THINK HALEY'S COUNTING ON AND EVEN DEAN PHILIPS S COUNTING ON HERE, THEY'RE HOPING THEY CAN PULL A LOT OF INDEPENDENTS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHICH AGAIN IS VERY, VERY HIGH PERCENTAGE UP THERE AND FOR HALEY IT'S LIKE RANK AND FILE REPUBLICANS VOTE FOR TRUMP BUT I'M GOING TO PULL IN ALL THESE INDEPENDENTS AND I THINK ANN FELT IS HOPING THE SAME THING.

>> ACTUALLY, F YOU FOLLOW THE POLLS THERE'S REAL MOVEMENT GOING ON.

IN THE LAST TWO MONTHS HALEY IS UP ABOUT TWO AND A HALF FOLD.

TRUMP'S NOT GOING ANYWAY, CRUSTIE'S COLLAPSED, RAMA SWAMY HAS PULLED OUT.

THAT'S ABOUT HALF A WEEK TO GO.

I THINK IF SHE'S WITHIN DOUBLE DIGITS I THINK THAT'S REALLY GOING TO CHARGE THIS CAMPAIGN AND MAY BE A REAL PROBLEM FOR TRUMP WHICH IS WHY HE'S CAMPAIGNING THERE, OU KNOW, TODAY AND OTHER DAYS THIS WEEK.

>> IT IS A PERCEPTION ISSUE TOO I WANT TO MENTION HERE IS THAT POLITICS IS WEIRD IN SO MANY GROUNDS.

YOU CAN LOSE AND WIN AT THE SAME TIME.

EVEN THOUGH IF TRUMP WINS BUT IF HALEY BEATS THE EXPECTATIONS SHE LIVES TO GET THE SOUTH CAROLINA.

>> Cathy: SAY, I WAS READING SOMETHING TODAY ABOUT DEAN PHILIPS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOMEBODY WAS TALKING ABOUT THERE'S SO MANY UNDECIDES IN SOME OF THESE POLLS LIKE 27% THAT THIS INDIVIDUAL WAS TRYING TO MAKE AN ARGUMENT THAT DEAN PHILLIPS COULD DO PRETTY WELL IN NEW HAMPSHIRE, YES, POSSIBLY?

>> YEAH, HE COULD DO WELL, I MEAN, YOU KNOW, I DON'T THINK THERE'S ANY WAY TO DISMISS THAT.

HE'S POLLING AT ABOUT 10% NOW.

YOU KNOW, JUST BY HISTORIC COMPARISONS, IF YOU LOOK BACK TO MCARTHY AND PAT BUCHANAN, THEY WERE IN THE 30S AND LOW 40%.

IS DEAN PHILLIPS GOING TO BE THERE?

I DOUBT IT.

AND THE REALITY IS IT'S A WRITE-IN, EVERYBODY KNOWS EXPECTATIONS ARE LOW BECAUSE SOUTH CAROLINA IS REALLY THE FIRST PRIMARY.

AND DEAN PHILLIPS IS NOTHING AFTER THIS, THIS IS LIKE THE WHOLE SHEBANG FOR HIM.

SO I DON'T THINK THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF SOMETHING FOR DEAN PHILLIPS, I THINK HE'S KIND OF BEEN SHOWING WHAT HE'S GOING TO GET ALL ALONG.

IT'S BEEN, YOU KNOW, IT'S BEEN DISAPPOINTING I WOULD SAY.

>> Eric: PROFESSOR RUGELEY, CONGRESSMAN FROM OHIO NAMED BILL JOHNSON HAS ANNOUNCED HE'S LEAVING EARLY.

AND THAT REDUCES THE REPUBLICAN U.S. HOUSE MARGIN TO TWO?

DOES THAT HAVE ANY IMPACT GOING FORWARD, OR?

>> IT'S REAL -- YEAH, I THINK IT DOES.

I MEAN, A COUPLE OF PEOPLE IN THE, YOU KNOW, COUPLE REPUBLICANS SWING OVER, THEN THE DEMOCRATS HAVE A PULL.

I MEAN, IT'S LITTLE THINGS LIKE, AND I MEAN I THINK THUS A LONGSHOT, BUT THEY'VE HAD STORIES LATELY IN THE NATIONAL MEDIA ABOUT JOHNSON AND, YOU KNOW, THE SPEAKER, HIS FUTURE AS SPEAKER IF HE GOES AHEAD AND TRIES TO DEAL WITH THINGS LIKE THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN, WHETHER OR NOT HIS PARTY WILL STAND WITH HIM.

DEMOCRATS ARE SAYING, WELL, YOU KNOW, IF HE MAKES AN EFFORT TO DO THIS WE'LL VOTE FOR HIM TO GET REELECTED.

AND SO WHEN YOU HAVE ONLY A TWO-SEAT MARGIN THAT KIND OF STUFF MAKES A DIFFERENCE.

NOW, I DON'T SEE HIM GOING ALONG WITH THAT, I MEAN, NO REPUBLICAN SPEAKER WANTS TO BE ELECTED BY THE DEMOCRATS.

BUT, AGAIN, IT MAKES THINGS LIKE THESE CLOSE VOTES ON THINGS LIKE KEEPING GOVERNMENT OPEN AND WE SAW THAT IN THE VOTE THIS WEEK, A LITTLE BIT FRIENDLIER FOR DEMOCRATS AND FOR PEOPLE WHO WANT TO GET SOMETHING DONE WITH THE PRESIDENT.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

>> SO, YEAH, IT MAKES A DIFFERENCE.

>> ABSOLUTELY, I COMPLETELY AGREE.

THE REPUBLICANS DON'T HAVE A WORKING MAJORITY.

>> THAT'S EXACTLY.

>> THEY'RE N REAL TROUBLE.

AND EVEN IF A MAJORITY OF THEIR PARTY IN THE HOUSE VOTING FOR THE STOP-GAP MEASURE THAT THE SPEAKER WAS SUPPORTING UP UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE.

AND THE DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT WAS ABOUT ALMOST DOUBLE WHAT THE REPUBLICAN SUPPORT IS.

SO THE AGENDA THAT'S BEING DRIVEN HERE IS CERTAINLY NOT THAT OF A UNIFIED REPUBLICAN PARTY.

THEY ARE -- CONTINUE TO BE IN CHAOS.

WILL JOHNSON LAST?

PROBABLY, BUT IT'S UGLY.

>> EAH, AND IF WE LOOK AT ACTUALLY THE PRODUCTIVITY, WE COMPLAINED ABOUT LAST YEAR ABOUT HOW UNPRODUCTIVE THEY WERE.

I MEAN, THIS YEAR IT'S GOING TO GET INCREASINGLY LESS AND LESS PRODUCTIVE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE ELECTION AND AGAIN REDUCING IT DOWN NOW TO TWO TO A TWO-PERSON MAJORITY, AS YOU SAID THERE'S JUST NO WORKING MAJORITY REALLY TO HOLD ANYTHING TOGETHER AND WITH THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, WHAT, MAYBE FOUR OR FIVE COALITIONS THERE, WE'RE JUST GOING TO SEE AT SOME POINT IT JUST GRIND TO A HALT PRETTY SOON.

>> Eric: THERE ARE MILLIONS OF AMERICANS WHO THINK DOING NOTHING IN CONGRESS IS A GOOD THING.

>> THAT'S NOT THE POSITION OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.

JOHN SON AND THE REPUBLICANS IN THE HOUSE TALK ABOUT THEIR AGENDAS.

NOW, HEY'RE PRETTY CONSERVATIVE OR RESEARCH AGENDAS BUT THEY'RE NOT GOING ANYWHERE, THEY'RE JUST PRESS RELEASES.

>> Cathy: GOING BACK TO THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE FOR JUST A SECOND, I'M SURE YOU READ THE NEW YORK TIMES ARTICLE ABOUT THERE'S KIND OF THIS ANTI-MATCH ENERGY OF PEOPLE DON'T WANT TO SEE ANOTHER BIDEN-TRUMP MATCHUP AND THERE'S THIS PALPABLE ENERGY.

HOW MIGHT THAT BODE?

>> TWO THINGS FIRST, WE COULD SEE A LOT OF PEOPLE NOT VOTE, OR STAY HOME ENTIRELY, THIS IS WHY BOBBY KENNEDY JUNIOR IN SOME POLLS POLLING AT 2%.

PEOPLE ARE LOOKING FOR A PROTEST VOTE AND THEY'LL BE SURPRISED TO FIND OUT THAT