The Pathfinder: Let History Be A Guide
The 2024 elections were nothing short of tumultuous. As is normal following a major election, some feel elated – things could not be any better! Others feel discouraged and angry – things could not get any worse!
Those emotional responses are understandable, but they don’t begin to tell the whole story of what happened, why it happened, or what will happen next. Can history be a guide? Perhaps. Recent history shows that political majorities are fleeting, realignments are fragile, and the only constant is how powerfully and quickly democracy can change course.
Think back to 2008 and Obama’s historic victory with nearly 53 percent of the vote.
Before the 2008 U.S. Senate elections, Democrats had 49 seats. After that election, they had 57. There were 236 Democrats in the U.S. House before the 2008 elections. When it was over, they had expanded their majority to 257.
In other words, Democrats had a strong trifecta in the federal government and were well-positioned to advance their agenda. For some commentators, these Democratic gains represented a “fundamental political realignment.”
It lasted exactly two years.
In the 2010 midterm elections, voters broke the Democratic trifecta they had created, delivering the House of Representatives to Republican control via the largest shift in House seats since 1948.
But there were other, more profound (if less noticed) changes at the state level. The most consequential was that Republicans picked up 680 total seats in state legislatures and took control of 20 state legislative chambers (out of 99 nationwide) that previously had Democratic majorities. That positioned Republicans to cement their gains in statehouses and use their power to tilt congressional maps in their favor.
It worked well for the GOP until 2018 – when voters broke Republican trifecta control in Washington, DC, and made substantial Democratic Party gains in state legislatures and statewide offices.
There are many more examples, but they all carry the same message: political victories are fleeting. Voters tend to rebuke what they perceive as overreach. In an environment where many Americans say they think the country is on the wrong track, voters also expect to see progress toward getting the country back on track; if they don’t see that progress, they are also happy to give the out-of-power party another chance. Nothing happened on November 5 to change these dynamics.
From Ballotpedia’s point of view, the results offer a wealth of information about races far removed from the hothouse of national politics – those for school boards, city councils, and tens of thousands of other local government bodies.
This is where our democracy is at its most personal and meaningful. It’s democracy where we live – and Ballotpedia will work harder than ever to give voters the information they need to be active and informed members of this bedrock democratic community.
Image by Art Bromage from Pixabay
The Pathfinder is a monthly column written by Leslie Graves, founder of Ballotpedia, for Preserving Democracy. Exploring topics vital to our understanding of American civics and Democracy, The Pathfinder attempts to cut through the noise of political journalism while exploring issues of vital importance to the American voter.
