>>> MY NEXT GUEST ADMITS THE

UNITED STATES IS AS WE'VE BEEN

DISCUSSING ON A KNIFE'S EDGE BUT

SAYS IT'S NOT TOO LATE TO RESCUE

DEMOCRACY.

POLITICAL SCIENTISTS BARBARA

WALTER IS THE AUTHOR OF "HOW

CIVIL WARS START" AND HERE SHE

EXPLAINS HOW AMERICA CAN SPENT

ANOTHER ONE FROM HAPPENING.

>> THANKS FOR JOINING US.

YOU HAVE STUDIED TYPES OF

SOCIETIES WHO HAVE BEEN ON THE

BRINK OF, IN THE MIDDLE L OF A

CIVIL WAR, WHO HAVE BEEN AFTER

AND SURVIVED AFTER ONE.

HOW IS AMERICA ON THAT TIMELINE?

HOW FAR ALONG THAT TIMELINE

TOWARD A CIVIL WAR IS THE UNITED

STATES?

>> SO WE HAVE SO MUCH GOOD

RESEARCH FROM REALLY ALMOST THE

LAST 100 YEARS OF COUNTRIES

AROUND THE WORLD.

I ACTUALLY SERVED ON A U.S.

GOVERNMENT TASK FORCE THAT WAS

RUN THROUGH THE CIA THAT WAS

DESIGNED TO HELP OUR GOVERNMENT

PREDICT WHERE AROUND THE WORLD

CIVIL WARS AND POLITICAL

INSTABILITY AND POLITICAL UNREST

WAS LIKELY TO BREAK OUT.

THE CIA IS NOT ALLOWED TO LOOK

AT THE UNITED STATES.

IT IS ABSOLUTELY NOT A

POLITICIZED ORGANIZATION AND WE

KNOW VERY CLEARLY THAT THE TWO

BIG RISK FACTORS ARE WHETHER A

COUNTRY HAS A WEAK AND PARTIAL

DEMOCRACY AND WHETHER IN THOSE

COUNTRIES IT'S POLITICAL PARTIES

HAD DIVIDED ALONG RACIAL

RELIGIOUS AND ETHNIC LINES.

SO IT REALLY DIDN'T TAKE A LOT

TO KNOW THOSE FACTS AND LOOK

WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE UNITED

STATES.

WE ALSO KNOW WHO TENDS TO START

CIVIL WARS, MOST PEOPLE THINK

THE POOREST MEMBERS OF SOCIETY

AND THEY HAVE THE MOTIVE AND

GRIEVANCES.

THEY HAVE A REASON TO REBEL OR

THEY THINK IT'S THE MOST HEAVILY

DISCRIMINATED OR THE IMMIGRANTS,

ALL THESE GROUPS WHO ARE IN

SOMEWAYS DOWN TROTTED BUT AGAIN

THEY DON'T START CIVIL WARS

ESPECIALLY ETHNICALLY BASED

CIVIL WARS ARE THE GROUPS THAT

HAD ONCE BEEN IN DECLINE.

ECONOMICALLY AND OF THEN TIMES

SOCIALLY.

OFTEN TIMES DEMOGRAPHICS ARE

CHANGING.

THESE ARE NOT STUDIES DONE IN

THE UNITED STATES.

IT WAS DONE ON OVER 200

DIFFERENT CIVIL WARS AROUND THE

WORLD AND IF YOU APPLY THAT TO

THE UNITED STATES, YOU ALSO SEE

SIMILARITIES AND WE'VE SEEN A

SIGNIFICANT RISE IN VIOLENT

EXTREMISM SINCE 2008, SOME OF IT

ON THE LEFT BUT THE VAST

MAJORITY OF IT HAS BEEN ON THE

FAR RIGHT AND IT'S BEEN

PERPETRATED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY

BY WHITE MEN.

AND AGAIN, IF YOU LOOK AT THE

HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES,

THE GROUP THAT HAD BEEN DOMINANT

SINCE THE VERY INCEPTION OF OUR

COUNTRY WERE WHITE MEN AND

TENDED TO BE CHRISTIAN AND THEY

ARE LOSING THAT POSITION, IT'S

NO LONGER GUARANTEED YOU'LL GET

INTO THE BEST SCHOOLS OR THE

BEST JOBS AND YOU SEE A SUBSET

BECOMING RESENTFUL, ANGRY AND

TRULY FEEL THIS IS THEIR COUNTRY

AND THAT THEY'RE BEING PATRIOTS

BY SAVING WHAT THEY BELIEVE IS

THE TRUE IDENTITY OF THIS

COUNTRY AND THEY'RE WILLING TO

USE VIOLENCE TO DO IT.

>> JUST LOOK WEEK THE FBI,

CAPITOL POLICE, DEPARTMENT OF

HOMELAND SECURITY AND THE

NATIONAL COUNTERTERRORISM CENTER

SENT OUT THIS STATEMENT SAYING

FOLLOWING THE 2022 MIDTERM

ELECTION PERCEPTIONS OF ELECTION

RELATED FRAUD AND

DISSATISFACTION WITH ELECTORAL

OUTCOMES LIKELY WILL RESULT IN

HEIGHTENED THREATS OF VIOLENCE

AGAINST A BROAD RANGE OF TARGETS

SUCH AS IDEOLOGICAL OPPONENTS

AND ELECTION WORKERS.

ARE ELECTIONS TRIGGER EVENTS?

>> YEAH, THE TWO BIG TRIGGERS

ARE WHEN A GROUP ESPECIALLY THIS

GROUP THAT'S IN DECLINE LOSES A

SERIES OF ELECTIONS AND THAT'S

ESPECIALLY TRUE OF A DEMOCRACY

AND ESPECIALLY TRUE IN A

DEMOCRACY BASED ON RULE.

SO HERE IN THIS COUNTRY, YOU

KNOW JUST HOW MUCH POLITICAL

POWER YOU HAVE.

IF YOU GAIN A MAJORITY OF VOTES

YOU GET TO BE IN POWER AND IF

YOU DON'T, YOU'RE OUT OF POWER.

WHAT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY HAS

BEEN SEEING OVER THE LAST FEW

DECADES IS THEIR NUMBERS ARE

DECLINING AND UNABLE TO WIN THE

PRESIDENCY WITH THE POPULAR

VOTE.

AND SO THIS CAN BE TRIGGERING

BECAUSE IT'S A LOSS OF HOPE FOR

THOSE PEOPLE WHO BELIEVE IN THE

SYSTEM AND WHO WORK WITHIN THE

SYSTEM IF IT GUARANTEED OR GAVE

THEM A GOOD SHOT OF POWER BUT

WHAT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS

INCREASINGLY SEEING AND HOW IT'S

BEING INTERPRETED BY EXTREMISTS

IN THEIR PARTY IS THAT THEY

CAN'T -- DEMOCRACY NO LONGER

WORKS FOR THEM.

THEY CAN'T WORK WITHIN THE

SYSTEM AND STILL EMERGE AND

RADICALS ARE BEGINNING CREATE

THIS NARRATIVE THAT, YOU KNOW,

THIS IS OUR COUNTRY.

WE NEED TO TAKE IT BACK.

WE WILL NOT BE REPLACED AND WE

ARE JUSTIFIED.

WE'RE JUSTIFIED TO TAKE IT BACK

IN ANY WAY WE CAN.

AND SO ELECTIONS CAN BE VERY,

VERY TRIGGERING.

>> SO WHAT IS THAT TIPPING POINT

WHERE ENOUGH OF THOSE PEOPLE

FEEL LIKE I'M LOSING A GRASS, MY

NUMBERS MIGHT NOT BE REFLECTED

IN MY POWER AND I NEED TO TAKE

CONTROL BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY?

>> THE MIDTERMS DON'T WORRY ME

BUT THE BIG ELECTION IN 2024

WORRIES ME NO MATTER WHO WINS.

IF REPUBLICANS WIN THAT

ELECTION, WHICH THEY MAY WELL

DO, THEIR INCENTIVE TO HOLD TON

0 POWER IS LEGAL MEANS TO

INCREASE GERRYMANDERING OR STACK

THE COURTS, THEY CAN USE A WHOLE

SERIES OF MEASURES THAT ARE

ALLOWS TO CEMENT IN MINORITY

RULE TO ENSURE THAT WHEN

ELECTIONS ARE HELD IN THE FUTURE

THAT THAT OPPOSITION NEVER COMES

TO POWER.

THIS IS SORT OF CLASSIC HUNGRY

MOVES AND WE KNOW THAT THAT'S

WHAT TRUMP INTENDED TO DO AFTER

HE LOST THE ELECTION AND DONALD

TRUMP SAID ONCE I'M BACK IN

POWER, WE'LL ENSURE WE DON'T

LOSE IT AGAIN.

THE STRATEGY THAT MAKES SENSE

GIVEN THEY ARE HEAVILY EVOLVED

ON WHITE CHRISTIANS IS TO DO

EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO MAKE IT

HARD FOR THE OPPOSITION TO WIN.

I ALSO WORRY OF COURSE OF THE

DEMOCRATS GET ELECTED.

IF THE DEMOCRATS GET ELECTED,

THE REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP WILL

DOUBLE DOWN ON THIS NARRATIVE

THAT THE ELECTION WAS ONCE AGAIN

STOLEN AND IF THEY BECOME

CONVINCED THEY CAN GO TO VOTE

AND DO EVERYTHING THEY'RE TOLD

IS CORRECT IN A DEMOCRAT DICK

DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM NEVER WIN THEY

WILL SAY TOLD YOU SO AND WE HAVE

TO THINK OF ANOTHER METHOD TO

TAKE BACK CONTROL.

>> AS YOU STUDY THESE DIFFERENT

COUNTRIES AND SEEN THESE

PRECONDITIONS EXIST AND YOU'VE

SEEN EVENTS THAT HAVE TRIGGERED

CIVIL WARS WHAT ARE THE THINGS

GOING BACK OVER THE LAST FEW

YEARS WHERE YOUR MORE CONCERNED

THIS IS POSSIBLE HERE?

>> IF YOU GO ON THE INTERNET AND

YOU GOOGLE 2012 GUIDE TO

INSURGENCY, GUIDE TO THE

ANALYSIS OF INSURGENCY, THAT'S A

CIA DECLASSIFIED REPORT AND

THEIR REPORT ON WHAT SHOULD WE

BE LOOKING FOR IN COUNTRIES

AROUND THE WORLD AND IT'S JUST

SHOCKING TO READ BECAUSE OF

COURSE, NONE OF IT WAS WRITTEN

WITH THE UNITED STATES IN MIND

BUT AS AN AMERICAN CITIZEN WHEN

YOU READ IT, YOU SEE SO MANY

PARALLELS.

THERE ARE THREE STAGES ACCORDING

TO THE MANUEL.

THERE IS A PREINSURGENCY STAGE,

THE INCIPIENT INSURGENCY STAGE.

THE PREINSURGENCY STAGE IS WHEN

YOU HAVE THESE GROUPS, THEY'RE

COMING TOGETHER, FIGURING OUT

THEY'RE ANGRY AT THE SAME THING

AND STARTING TO CRAFT A

NARRATIVE WHAT THEY STAND FOR

AND WHAT THEY'RE ANGRY ABOUT AND

OFTEN TIMES THIS INCLUDES MYTHS

AND LIES.

THIS IS THE MOST DANGEROUS PHASE

WHEN THESE GROUPS ARE BEGINNING

TO GET AN ARMED WING.

THEY'RE STARTING TO TRAIN AND

START TO SEE ISOLATED ACTS OF

VIOLENCE, THE VIOLENCE IS

ACTUALLY PRETTY SPECIFIC.

IT TENDS TO BE TERRORIST

VIOLENCE AS CIVILIANS.

YOU'LL SEE ASSASSINATION

ATTEMPTS OF OPPOSITION LEADERS

AND YOU'LL SEE BOMBS OF FEDERAL

BUILDINGS.

OR GOVERNMENT BUILDINGS AND THE

TARGETING OF MINORITY GROUPS OR

GROUPS THAT THE TERRORIST

ORGANIZATION IS ANGRY WITH.

AND THE REASON WHY THIS IS THE

MOST DANGEROUS PHASE IS THAT

OFTEN TIMES THE GOVERNMENT OF

THE COUNTRY THAT'S EXPERIENCING

THIS IS NOT PUTTING -- NOT

CONNECTING THE DOTS.

IT SEES THESE AS ISOLATED

INCIDENTS AND OFTEN CLAIMS THAT

THEY'RE RESULTS OF CRIMINALS OR

TERRORISTS OR PEOPLE WHO ARE

CRAZY.

THEY'RE NOT SEEING THE LARGER

PATTERN AND THEN THE OPEN

INSURGENCY STAGE IS WHEN YOU

START TO SEE A SUSTAINED SERIES

OF ATTACKS THAT USE MORE

SOPHISTICATED EQUIPMENT AND

ATTACKS ARE LARGER IN SCOPE.

THEY'LL ATTACK INFRASTRUCTURE

AND THAT'S WHEN PEOPLE SUDDENLY

REALIZE WE HAVE A BIG PROBLEM

BUT OFTEN TIMES, THAT'S PRETTY

FAR DOWN THE ROAD BEFORE PEOPLE

REALIZE WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING.

>> YOU KNOW, THIS COMES FROM

DIFFERENT ENDS OF THE POLITICAL

SPECTRUM BUT WE HAD AN

INDIVIDUAL WHO WAS MAKING

THREATS TO SITTING SUPREME

JUSTICE AND WE HAD AN INDIVIDUAL

IN THE HOME OF THE SPEAKER OF

THE HOUSE AND ATTACK THE HUSBAND

OF THE SPEAKER AND I WONDER IF

THESE THINGS JUST HOW YOU PLACE

THEM ON THAT INSURGENCY LEVEL.

ARE WE THERE?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

THIS WOULD BE A PERFECT EXAMPLE.

THE MAN THAT BROKE INTO THE

PELOSI HOME AND ATTACKED HER

HUSBAND, HE HAD CLEARLY BEEN

RADICALIZED ONLINE AND HE

BELIEVED HE WAS A PATRIOT THAT

NANCY PELOSI WAS TRYING TO STEAL

THIS COUNTRY AND IF YOU LOOKED

AT HIS INTERNET FOOTPRINT, HE

WAS ON THE FAR RIGHT SIDE.

HE WAS A BELIEVER IN QANON AND

CONSPIRACIES AND THE BIG LIE AND

HE DID BELIEVE THAT THE

DEMOCRATS HAD STOLEN THE LAST

ELECTION.

HE IS A PERFECT EXAMPLE OF THIS

MOVEMENT OF DISAPPOINT FACTED

MEN MOSTLY WHO ARE REALLY ANGRY

AT THE DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY

AND ACTIVE ONLINE AND ARE

GETTING INFORMATION THAT

CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS THEM THESE

LIES AND THEY'RE BEGINNING TO

ACT OUT.

>> LAST WEEK WE HAD A JUDGE

REFUSE TO BAR A GROUP OF PEOPLE,

ARMED ACTIVISTS FROM MONITORING

A BALLOT DROP BOX IN ARIZONA AND

IN MARICOPA COUNTY.

THOSE STANDING ON THE SIDEWALK

HEAVILY ARMED WATCHING PEOPLE

ADD THE VOTES INTO THE BALLOT

BOX WHEN THERE ARE THESE FORCES

THAT CAN INTIMIDATE HOW AN

ELECTION IS CARRIED OUT AND

WHETHER PEOPLE FEEL COMFORTABLE

COMING TO A POLLING LOCATION OR

TO A PLACE THAT THEY CAN CAST

THEIR VOTE, WHAT DOES THAT DO?

>> WELL, WE KNOW HOW TERRORISM

IS DESIGNED TO WORK AND ONE OF

THE STRATEGIES THAT TERRORISTS

PURSUE AND THIS IS ALL AROUND

THE WORLD IS CALLED AN

INTIMIDATION STRATEGY AND

DESIGNED TO PUT OUT TOWARDS THE

GROUP YOU'RE TARGETING THIS

SENSE OF THREAT.

IF YOU DON'T DO WHAT YOU WANT TO

DO YOUR FAMILY'S LIFE IS AT RISK

AND DESIGNED TO ESSENTIALLY

INTIMIDATE THEM INTO SUBMISSION.

PEOPLE WILL STOP TO GO OR SOME

PEOPLE WILL STOP TO GO VOTE

BECAUSE VOTING IS ALREADY HARDER

THAN IT SHOULD BE IN THIS

COUNTRY AND IF YOU'RE NOW

FACING, YOU KNOW, A POSSIBLE

THREAT AND YOU KNOW THIS PERSON

CAN IDENTIFY YOU AND MAYBE HE

EVEN KNOWS WHERE YOU LIVE,

VOTING JUST FOR SOME PEOPLE WILL

NO LONGER BE WORTH IT SO IT'S A

VERY, VERY EFFECTIVE STRATEGY TO

CONTROL THE BEHAVIOR OF PEOPLE

WHO YOU WANT TO SUPPRESS.

YOU SEE THIS ALL OVER THE PLACE

AND THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE OF

THAT.

>> WHAT DOES THE CIVIL WAR LOOK

LIKE IN THE 21st CENTURY BECAUSE

I WONDER IF WE'RE LIMITED BY OUR

HISTORICAL UNDERSTANDING AND WE

ASSUME THAT PEOPLE WILL STAND

ACROSS A FIELD FROM ONE ANOTHER

DRESSED IN BLUE COATS AND RED

COATS.

>> YEAH, THAT IS THE OLD SCHOOL

TYPE OF CIVIL WAR.

THAT DOESN'T REALLY HAPPEN

ANYMORE.

AND IT'S CERTAINLY DOES NOT

HAPPEN IN A COUNTRY WITH AS

POWERFUL MILITARY AS WE HAVE.

IF YOU'RE A MILITIA OPERATING IN

NEVADA AND YOU WANT TO -- YOU'RE

UNHAPPY WITH THE DIRECTION OF

THIS COUNTRY, YOU'RE NOT GOING

TO TRY TO CHANGE IT BY DIRECTLY

CONFRONTING THE AMERICAN

MILITARY.

THAT'S A RECIPE FOR DISASTER.

YOU'RE GOING TO DO IT MUCH MORE

QUIETLY.

THE 21st CENTURY CIVIL WARS WE

SEE ARE -- TEND TO BE VERY

DECENTRALIZED SO THEY WILL

TARGET HERE IN THIS COUNTRY

BECAUSE IT'S LIKELY TO BE AN

ETHNICALLY BASED WAR, THEY'RE

GOING TO TARGET AFRICAN AMERICAN

CHURCHES.

THEY'RE GOING TO TARGET

SYNAGOGUES.

THEY'RE GOING TO TARGET URBAN

CENTERS WHERE LOTS OF LIBERALS

LIVE.

THEY'RE GOING TO TARGET FEDERAL

JUDGES WHO ARE MAKING JUDGMENTS

THAT THEY FEEL ARE LEFT OF

CENTER AND DON'T AGREE WITH.

THEY'RE GOING TO BE ATTEMPTING

TO ASSASSINATE DEMOCRATIC

LEADERS.

THIS IS THE TYPE OF 21st CENTURY

CIVIL WAR WE SEE AND CAN

ACTUALLY BE QUITE EFFECTIVE

BECAUSE IT'S HARD TO STOP.

THE FAR RIGHT HAS A TERM FOR IT.

IT'S CALLED LEADERLESS

RESISTANCE AND IT A TYPE OF CELL

TERRORIST GORILLA WARFARE IS

WHAT A 21st CENTURY WAR IS

LIKELY TO LOOK LIKE.

NOT THESE TWO BIG ARMIES FACING

EACH OTHER ON A BATTLE FIELD.

>> THIS IS A DARK QUESTION I

GUESS BUT IS A ZICHL WAR --

CIVIL WAR IN AMERICA IF OR

WHEN?

>> WE KNOW WEAK DEMOCRACIES ARE

AT RISK.

WE KNOW WHEN WE BEGIN TO

ORGANIZE OURSELVES NOT A LONG

POLITICAL IDEAS BUT RACE AND

RELIGION YOU GET IN TROUBLE.

WE ALSO KNOW THAT FULL HEALTHY

DEMOCRACIES DO NOT EXPERIENCE

CIVIL WAR.

WE KNOW WHAT IT TAKES TO TURN

THIS AROUND AND THERE IS TIME

BUT IF INSTEAD WE GO ON THE OF

SIDE

-- OPPOSITE DIRECTION AND

CONTINUE TO ATTEMPT TO SUPPRESS

THE VOTE AND CONTINUE TO TRY TO

MAKE IT HARDER TO VOTE AND GIVE

CERTAIN ADVANTAGES TO CERTAIN

PARTS OF THE COUNTRY OVER OTHER

PARTS, AGAIN, WE'RE GOING IN THE

WRONG DIRECTION.

THAT'S MAKING OUR DEMOCRACY

WEAKER AND IF OUR POLITICAL

PARTIES CONTINUE TO DOUBLE DOWN

TO SERVE OUR PASSIONATE BASES,

THIS IS DEEPLY DIVISIVE AND THIS

IS WHAT WE KNOW TENDS TO LEAD

COUNTRIES DOWN THE PATH TOWARDS

MORE VIOLENCE, NOT LESS.

WE KNOW WHAT TO DO.

WE JUST HAVE TO HAVE THE

POLITICAL WILL AND OUR LEADERS

HAVE TO HAVE THE COURAGE TO DO

SOMETHING ABOUT IT.

>> PROFESSOR BARBARA WALTER FROM

THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA,

SAN DIEGO.

THE BOOK IS CALLED HOW CIVIL

WARS START.

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR TIME.

>> MY PLEASURE.

THANK YOU VERY HAVING ME.