{"id":1800,"date":"2007-07-24T10:22:51","date_gmt":"2007-07-24T14:22:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/wnet\/wideangle\/?p=1800"},"modified":"2009-04-14T15:12:09","modified_gmt":"2009-04-14T19:12:09","slug":"the-sand-castle-interview-with-afshin-molavi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/wnet\/wideangle\/interactives-extras\/the-sand-castle-interview-with-afshin-molavi\/1800\/","title":{"rendered":"Interview with Afshin Molavi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Afshin Molavi, former Dubai-based correspondent for Reuters and fellow at the New America Foundation discusses the United Arab Emirates&#8217; global significance with anchor Daljit Dhaliwal. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Afshin Molavi, welcome to Wide Angle.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Thank you, Daljit.\u00a0 It&#8217;s a pleasure to be with you.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: So, what did you make of the film?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: I thought the film was fascinating for many reasons.\u00a0 On the one hand,<br \/>\nyou know, when I&#8217;m in the United Arab Emirates, I hear a lot about Ras Al Khaimah.\u00a0 Ras Al<br \/>\nKhaimah is one of seven Emirates.\u00a0 They&#8217;re a very young country.\u00a0 This is a country that was<br \/>\nformed in 1971 and Ras Al Khaimah is considered by many to be the next big growth<br \/>\ndestination.\u00a0 And so, it was very interesting to look on the inside of the decisions that are<br \/>\nbeing made.<\/p>\n<p>And as I was watching the film, I thought to myself, wouldn&#8217;t it have been interesting if there<br \/>\nwere such a film about Dubai.\u00a0 Dubai, which is now the great economic juggernaut of the<br \/>\nUnited Arab Emirates.\u00a0 It&#8217;s a place that has really become a major regional hub and A global<br \/>\nhub.\u00a0 And so, I think this film will be just as interesting to watch ten years from now, once<br \/>\nthe hotels have been built and the shopping malls have been built.\u00a0 And we&#8217;ll see whether the<br \/>\ndecisions that were made, that we saw in the film, were actually the right ones.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Have you been to Ras Al Khaimah, the tiny Emirate that we feature in<br \/>\nour film?\u00a0 What were you impressions?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Sure.\u00a0 You know, when I was living in Dubai in the late 1990s and<br \/>\nthroughout my many visits to Dubai since then, Ras Al Khaimah, for many people who live in<br \/>\nDubai, was a place to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city.\u00a0 It was a place to see<br \/>\nnatural beauty and scenery.<\/p>\n<p>Ras Al Khaimah has one of the most beautiful coastlines along the Persian Gulf and wonderful<br \/>\nbeaches, and it also has mountains and a desert.\u00a0 So, for us, Ras Al Khaimah was this natural<br \/>\noasis&#8211; to get away from the city.\u00a0 And so, there were also moments when I stood back and I<br \/>\nlooked at this film and I said, &#8220;Oh, no.\u00a0 You know, what is happening to the pristine, you<br \/>\nknow, beauty of Ras Al Khaimah?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: You were disappointed then, at the development?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Well, you know, it gets to the heart of the issue of development.\u00a0 You<br \/>\nknow, on the other hand, you look at that pristine natural beauty and you say to yourself,<br \/>\nyou hope that that will be somehow preserved.\u00a0 But on the other hand, the people of Ras Al<br \/>\nKhaimah, just like people anywhere in the world, deserve to develop their economy.<\/p>\n<p>They deserve to develop the kind of growth that will benefit their citizens.\u00a0 And, you know, if<br \/>\nthe lesson of Dubai is learned by anyone in the United Arab Emirates, it is that hotels and<br \/>\nshopping malls and big tourist mega complex do attract people.\u00a0 Dubai last year, Daljit,<br \/>\nattracted more tourists than India.\u00a0 Think about that for a moment.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: And Egypt.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: And Egypt.\u00a0 A city state of less than two million people attracting more<br \/>\ntourists than a country of a billion people, and a place like Egypt with the pyramids and all of<br \/>\nthat civilization\u2026<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: So, but why did they want to go to Dubai?\u00a0 I mean, what has Dubai<br \/>\ngot?\u00a0 I mean, Cairo has obviously got the Pyramids.\u00a0 And India&#8217;s got the Taj Mahal.\u00a0 What<br \/>\nhas Dubai got?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: I think what Dubai has done is they&#8217;ve created, on the one hand, a<br \/>\nshopping Mecca.\u00a0 And while that may not be to some people&#8217;s tastes, if you look in the<br \/>\nregion\u2014you&#8217;ve got a region of about two billion people.\u00a0 And you look at the way Dubai is<br \/>\npositioned, geographically you&#8217;ve got the Indian subcontinent, we&#8217;ve got the Arab states of<br \/>\nthe Persian Gulf, Iran, Western China, East Africa\u2026it&#8217;s a region of two billion people with a<br \/>\nGDP of two trillion dollars.\u00a0 So, what they did\u2014Dubai simply looked around and said, &#8220;This<br \/>\nregion needs a tourism hub.&#8221;\u00a0 But they also need a trade hub and a services hub.\u00a0 So, they<br \/>\ncreated these mega hotels.<\/p>\n<p>They created these events, you know, super concerts of major superstars.\u00a0 And it seemed to<br \/>\nhave worked for Dubai as the tourists numbers don&#8217;t lie.\u00a0 In terms of hotel occupancy rates,<br \/>\nDubai is the third in the world after London and New York.\u00a0 So, it seems to be working.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: We saw in the film how Ras Al Khaimah is trying to be like its much<br \/>\nwealthier sister state, Dubai.\u00a0 You are a journalist.\u00a0 You lived in Dubai for a few years and<br \/>\nyou go back there quite often.\u00a0 What was that transformation like?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: It was very fascinating to watch because, I remember&#8211; at one point, I<br \/>\nhad been away from Dubai for about a year.\u00a0 And I had come back to Dubai and someone I<br \/>\nhad gotten to know there pointed to the skyline.\u00a0 And he said to me, &#8220;You see the skyline?<br \/>\nThat wasn&#8217;t here last year.&#8221;\u00a0 But his English wasn&#8217;t very good. So, I thought he meant, &#8220;You<br \/>\nsee that skyscraper that wasn&#8217;t here last year.&#8221;\u00a0 But, no.\u00a0 He meant an entire skyline.\u00a0 So, it<br \/>\nwas almost as if you were living in this place where you have that digital photography\u2014that<br \/>\nyou see things grow.\u00a0 And it was almost like you were living in that environment and you&#8217;re<br \/>\njust watching things sprout up.<\/p>\n<p>Dubai really benefited from, in many ways, 9\/11, oddly enough.\u00a0 Because after 9\/11, you had<br \/>\nthis spike in oil price and you had this enormous Persian Gulf oil boom.\u00a0 But then you also<br \/>\nhad this animosity develop between the United States and the Arab world which made it<br \/>\nmore difficult for Arab investors to come to the United States.\u00a0 It made it more difficult for<br \/>\nthem to invest in the United States.<\/p>\n<p>So, you had all of this money floating around in the region, looking for investments.\u00a0 Well,<br \/>\nthey weren&#8217;t investing so much in the United States.\u00a0 They weren&#8217;t investing as much in<br \/>\nEurope and suddenly, you had Dubai, a place that had world class infrastructure, world class<br \/>\nbusinesses, and this was the ideal place for them to invest.\u00a0 So, Ras Al Khaimah in many<br \/>\nways is trying to follow aspects of the Dubai model. And this Dubai model is a very simple<br \/>\none.\u00a0 It&#8217;s, \u2018build it and they will come.\u2019\u00a0 So, you build the world class infrastructure.\u00a0 You<br \/>\ncreate a regulatory environment that is attractive to business.\u00a0 This is something that Dubai<br \/>\nhas been doing for centuries, but this is also something that Ras Al Khaimah has been doing<br \/>\nfor centuries.\u00a0 It&#8217;s important to remember that Ras Al Khaimah was always an important<br \/>\ntrading port in the Persian Gulf region that linked India, and linked merchants from as far<br \/>\naway as China throughout the 18th and 19th and 20th century.\u00a0 So, what they&#8217;re doing now<br \/>\nis scaling up what they&#8217;ve been doing for centuries anyway.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: And this notion of ,\u2018build and they will come,\u2019 apparently it seems to be<br \/>\nworking.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: It seems to be working and&#8211; and it seems to be working not only in<br \/>\nDubai, but in the larger country.\u00a0 So, as we know, Ras Al Khaimah is one part of the country<br \/>\nknown as the United Arab Emirates.\u00a0 This country was formed in 1971.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s a young country.\u00a0 It was&#8211; before that, these were all sheikhdoms that were under British<br \/>\nprotection.\u00a0 Well, today, the United Arab Emirates attracts more foreign investment than any<br \/>\nother country in the Arab world.\u00a0 Today the United Arab Emirates has a gross domestic<br \/>\nproduct that is approaching Iran&#8217;s gross domestic product.\u00a0 Iran\u2014this historically rich country<br \/>\nwith a population of 70 million people.\u00a0 Today, according to the World Economic Forum, the<br \/>\nUnited Arab Emirates is the most competitive economy in the Arab world.\u00a0 So, they&#8217;re doing a<br \/>\nlot of things right.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Well, where is all this money coming from?<br \/>\nAFSHIN MOLAVI: I think most of the money in the United Arab Emirates comes from Abu<br \/>\nDhabi.\u00a0 Dubai gets all the attention because Dubai has the fancy buildings and the islands<br \/>\nand the sea.\u00a0 But Abu Dhabi is the capital of the United Arab Emirates and they have the oil.<\/p>\n<p>And so, the oil flows into Abu Dhabi and Abu Dhabi distributes the oil money to the rest of<br \/>\nthe Emirates.\u00a0 But, they also keep a lot of it at home.\u00a0 The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is<br \/>\nan investment authority that has 500 billion dollars in assets.\u00a0 So, this means that it&#8217;s the<br \/>\nsecond largest institutional investor after the Bank of Japan.<\/p>\n<p>So, we&#8217;re talking about serious economic players here.\u00a0 The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority<br \/>\ninvests in major companies around the world.\u00a0 The liquidity that is in the region is truly<br \/>\nextraordinary.\u00a0 And it&#8217;s not just the United Arab Emirates, Daljit.<\/p>\n<p>What we&#8217;re witnessing today, in my view, is one of the most historic transfers of wealth in<br \/>\nhuman history, from one part of the world to a small area of the world.\u00a0 What we&#8217;ve<br \/>\nwitnessed in the last five years\u20141.5 trillion dollars has come in to the countries known as the<br \/>\nGulf Cooperation Counsel\u2014Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab<br \/>\nEmirates.<\/p>\n<p>These countries, with 1.5 trillion dollars in the last five years\u2014this is not the first time we&#8217;ve<br \/>\nwitnessed a Gulf oil boom.\u00a0 But this Gulf oil boom is different because they seem to be using<br \/>\ntheir money wisely.\u00a0 They&#8217;re not spending it on white elephant projects.\u00a0 They&#8217;re not<br \/>\nsquandering it as much in the nightclubs of London or Paris.\u00a0 Notice I say, as much.\u00a0 But<br \/>\nwhat they are doing is investing in infrastructure, investing in industry and investing in<br \/>\ncreating a financial and services and tourism hub.<\/p>\n<p>So, a place like Dubai\u2014oil only accounts for 6-7% of its GDP.\u00a0 So, what Ras Al Khaimah&#8217;s<br \/>\ngoing to need to do, Ras Al Khaimah cannot follow the model of the oil rich Gulf states,<br \/>\nbecause Ras Al Khaimah does not have a lot of oil.\u00a0 So, they have to follow that Dubai model.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Well, the point that you make about oil is interesting because Dubai<br \/>\nwas able to sort of see into the future almost, and to set up this other model.\u00a0 And, is this<br \/>\nsomething that can be replicated all over the Emirates, especially in Ras Al Khaimah?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: I think that&#8217;s such a fundamentally important question because when we<br \/>\nlook at the development of Dubai\u2014you know, oil has played an important role in the early<br \/>\ndevelopment of Dubai, particularly in the development infrastructure.\u00a0 But today, oil accounts<br \/>\nfor about 6% of Dubai&#8217;s GDP.\u00a0 So, they&#8217;re clearly creating the way for a post-oil future.<\/p>\n<p>Well, Ras Al Khaimah actually doesn&#8217;t have much of a choice because they don&#8217;t have much<br \/>\noil reserves.\u00a0 And so, they are going to have to develop an economy that is not dependent on<br \/>\noil\u2014mostly because Abu Dhabi, the capital of United Arab Emirates, the oil-rich region of the<br \/>\ncountry, is not particularly interested in subsidizing these Emirates forever.\u00a0 So, Ras Al<br \/>\nKhaimah is going to have to create its post-oil future.<\/p>\n<p>And the sort of things they&#8217;re doing right now is part of that.\u00a0 But if there&#8217;s one lesson of the<br \/>\nDubai model, it is this: people talk about geography being their destiny&#8211; or demography<br \/>\nbeing their destiny.\u00a0 But I would argue that governance is your destiny.\u00a0 And when you have<br \/>\ngood governance, when you have ambitious, far-sighted rulers\u2014and in small populations with<br \/>\naccess to some resources, there&#8217;s no telling what you can do.\u00a0 You know, and I&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: So, what are the politics in the region?\u00a0 And we can&#8217;t talk about in<br \/>\nterms of it being a liberal place.\u00a0 I mean, can we talk about it in terms of it being a<br \/>\nprogressive place?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Yeah, you know, it&#8217;s such an important question.\u00a0 I think the way we can<br \/>\ndescribe United Arab Emirates as a whole, is an economically liberal, an economically<br \/>\nprogressive place, a socially and culturally liberal and progressive place, but not a politically<br \/>\none.\u00a0 In fact, the irony is that there&#8217;s probably less space for politics in the United Arab<br \/>\nEmirates than even in Saudi Arabia.\u00a0 And, in fact&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Really?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Really.\u00a0 Yeah.\u00a0 And, in fact&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: What do you mean by that?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Saudi Arabia has held municipal elections.\u00a0 These municipal counsels<br \/>\nhave some real power.\u00a0 The United Arab Emirates has a federal national council in which they<br \/>\nrecently held elections for&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Last year, right?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: &#8211;last year.\u00a0 But only 20 of the 40 seats were up for election and it was a<br \/>\nvery limited number of people who are even allowed to vote in this election.\u00a0 So&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: And they were hand picked.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: And they were hand picked, exactly.\u00a0 So, you have hand picked voters for<br \/>\nhalf of a federal national council which has very little teeth.\u00a0 So, in many ways, there is not<br \/>\nmuch space for the politics that you and I understand in the West.\u00a0 However, they would<br \/>\nargue that they have somewhat of a direct political system, in which residents of the United<br \/>\nArab Emirates, nationals of the United Arab Emirates&#8211; I must correct myself.\u00a0 In which<br \/>\nnational&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Because 80 percent of the population is expatriates on the Indian&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Absolutely.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: &#8211;subcontinental\u2026<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Absolutely, absolutely.\u00a0 This is very important.\u00a0 I mean, you have the<br \/>\npopulation with 80% that are not UAE passport holders, many of which are expatriates from<br \/>\nthe Indian Subcontinent.\u00a0 More than half of all residents in the United Arab Emirates are from<br \/>\nIndia.\u00a0 This is very important point.\u00a0 But, in that&#8211; among that small population of UAE<br \/>\nnationals, they do have regular what they call, majlises.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: That&#8217;s, like, what, holding court?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Holding court, exactly.\u00a0 Where the ruling prince will sit and, if you are<br \/>\nUAE national, you can go.\u00a0 You can present your complaint to the ruling prince.\u00a0 You can<br \/>\npresent their ideas.\u00a0 But as the population grows, as life becomes faster, there&#8217;s going to be<br \/>\na lot less people showing up at these majlises.\u00a0 And there&#8217;s going to be a lot more, I think<br \/>\ncalls for greater political participation.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: But do the sheikhs listen to what people have to say at these majlises?<br \/>\nI mean, can you think of an example, for instance, where they&#8217;ve actually acted on what the<br \/>\npopulation has said?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Yeah.\u00a0 You know, from everything I&#8217;ve heard from when I&#8217;ve attended<br \/>\nthese majlises, I&#8217;ve found that there is a real give and take among the sheikhs.\u00a0 But I&#8217;ll give<br \/>\nyou one interesting example.\u00a0 Sheikh Mohammad Bin Rashid has asked several members of<br \/>\nthe majlis who attend his majlis regularly, he said he&#8217;s looking for a young man who could be<br \/>\nkind of a rising star and who could help in the economic development of Dubai.\u00a0 And the<br \/>\nstory is that there was this young man in one of these Dubai economic departments.\u00a0 His<br \/>\nname was Mohammad Gergewi.\u00a0 And what Sheikh Mohammad would do is he would send out<br \/>\nmystery shoppers, who would go to government departments and test and see who&#8217;s alert,<br \/>\nwho&#8217;s serving the people well, who&#8217;s not serving the people well.<\/p>\n<p>Well, he sent out one of these mystery shoppers to an economic development department<br \/>\nand he wasn&#8217;t treated particularly well.\u00a0 But there was one young man who really went out of<br \/>\nhis way to help.\u00a0 And his name was Mohammad Gergewi.\u00a0 Well, this mystery shopper went to<br \/>\nthe majlis, told Sheikh Mohammad, this man named Mohammad Gergewi is someone you<br \/>\nshould look at, is someone you should hire.<\/p>\n<p>He said, &#8220;I want to meet him.&#8221;\u00a0 And as a result, that lead to rise of Mohammad Gergewi who<br \/>\nis now a very important and powerful and influential man in Dubai.\u00a0 So, that&#8217;s one example.<br \/>\nBut in general, I think there are now, what we&#8217;re starting to witness is more and more<br \/>\ncomplaints from the UAE nationals, particularly in Dubai.<\/p>\n<p>Because, here you are.\u00a0 You&#8217;re&#8211; if you live in Dubai, you&#8217;ve literally gone from tents to<br \/>\nskyscrapers in one generation.\u00a0 And this can be very disorienting.\u00a0 If you live in Dubai, you<br \/>\nare less than 10%&#8211; you as an UAE national make up less than 10% of the population.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Is that true of other parts of the Emirates as well as, for example, Ras<br \/>\nAl Khaimah?\u00a0 Could that be true for Ras Al Khaimah. sort of ten or 15 years from now?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Yeah.\u00a0 It certainly will probably see the numbers shift towards<br \/>\nexpatriate.\u00a0 Right now in Ras Al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates nationals make up about<br \/>\n50% of the population.\u00a0 I think with all of these projects that they are building and the way<br \/>\nthey&#8217;re trying to attract business: that is going to shift in favor of the expatriate population.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: So, we&#8217;ve seen this astounding economic boom which is exemplified by<br \/>\nDubai.\u00a0 And, Ras Al Khaimah is hoping that it&#8217;s going to be able to replicate and get some of<br \/>\nthe action here.\u00a0 But doesn&#8217;t this lack of democracy deter a lot more foreign investment<br \/>\ncoming into the Emirates&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Right&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: &#8211;does it not make any difference because it&#8217;s&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Yeah\u2014<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL:&#8211;business?\u00a0 It&#8217;s&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Yeah.\u00a0 Thus far, it doesn&#8217;t seem to have made a difference and<br \/>\nparticularly because those foreign investors see that, what you have is good leadership, good<br \/>\ngovernance, in much the same way people flocked to Singapore because they trusted Lee<br \/>\nQuan Yu.\u00a0 In much the same way that people flocked to Hong Kong because it was a hub and<br \/>\nit was a hub for very important markets.\u00a0 I think people are flocking to Dubai in much the<br \/>\nsame way.<\/p>\n<p>The challenge for Dubai, the challenge for the United Arab Emirates and the challenge for Ras<br \/>\nAl Khaimah, is how do you institutionalize some of these regulatory environments, some of<br \/>\nthese economic conditions, so it&#8217;s not only about do I trust its ruler.\u00a0 Because Ras Al Khaimah<br \/>\nis blessed with a modernizing, ambitious prince in Sheikh Saud ibn Saqr al-Qasimi, we saw in<br \/>\nthis film.\u00a0 And Sheikh Saud in many ways is right out of the mold of Sheikh Mohammad bin<br \/>\nRashid, the ruler of Dubai.<\/p>\n<p>He&#8217;s ambitious.\u00a0 He has a vision for his Emirate that is one that would like to see his Emirate<br \/>\nplay a larger role than it\u2019s currently played.\u00a0 And he also is focused on education and focused<br \/>\non developing his nationals as well.\u00a0 But, what will happen if something were suddenly to<br \/>\nhappen to him?\u00a0 What would happen if something were suddenly to happen to Sheikh<br \/>\nMohammad?\u00a0 And so, foreign investors are going to want to know that there are regulatory<br \/>\nenvironments in place that will outlast these modernizing rulers.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Right.\u00a0 So&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: And that&#8217;s gonna be the real challenge going forward.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Yeah.\u00a0 So, in a way you&#8217;re describing this astounding economic boom.<br \/>\nI mean, that&#8217;s what&#8217;s happening now.\u00a0 But it could be different and why aren&#8217;t we seeing this<br \/>\nmodel which is a fully fledged market economy?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Right.\u00a0 We certainly, what we&#8217;re seeing in many ways is a market<br \/>\neconomy with the government playing a role in the market.\u00a0 And let me give you an<br \/>\nexample.\u00a0 When we look at some of those companies\u2014remember when Khater Massaad, the<br \/>\nLebanese director, he listed all of those companies that he&#8217;s the director of?<\/p>\n<p>Well, many of those companies are partially government-owned.\u00a0 And when we think of<br \/>\ngovernment-owned companies and government-owned industries, we think of inefficiency.<br \/>\nWe think of tea sipping bureaucrats who are unable to capitalize on markets.\u00a0 But in the<br \/>\nUnited Arab Emirates, we&#8217;ve also seen the rise of a new kind of government company.<br \/>\nGovernment companies that are ambitious, globalized, and efficient.\u00a0 And&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: But it also sounds like protectionism to me.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: There is an element of that.\u00a0 But when you look at companies like<br \/>\nEmirates Airlines, you know, Emirates Airlines is on track to be the largest airline operator in<br \/>\nthe world within ten years.\u00a0 Now, you don&#8217;t get to that level if you are not efficient, ambitious<br \/>\nand globalized.\u00a0 Dubai Ports World, right now is the second largest ports operator in the<br \/>\nworld.\u00a0 Remember Dubai Ports were&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: In the news last year, yes.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI:&#8211;in the news last year.\u00a0 When the US congress opposed the fact that<br \/>\nwhen Dubai Ports World bought a British firm that handled six US ports, US congress<br \/>\nopposed it.\u00a0 And ultimately, they divested from that portion of it.\u00a0 But, guess what&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Well, the fear was that that there could be an increased risk of terrorist<br \/>\nattack because two of the 9\/11 hijackers were from the United Arab Emirates.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: This is true.\u00a0 Yeah, absolutely.\u00a0 And what has happened with Dubai Ports<br \/>\nWorld is that, right now, they&#8217;re operating ports all over the Americas.\u00a0 But to your point<br \/>\nabout the two 9\/11 hijackers, you&#8217;re absolutely right.\u00a0 And in many ways before 9\/11, Dubai<br \/>\nturned a blind eye to a lot of the things that were going on in Dubai that were partly<br \/>\nsymptomatic of boomtowns and partly reflective of the region.\u00a0 So&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: What do you mean?\u00a0 Are you talking about money laundering?<br \/>\nAFSHIN MOLAVI: Money laundering being one of them.\u00a0 Human trafficking, being another<br \/>\none of them.\u00a0 Boomtowns attract businessmen, professionals and bankers.\u00a0 But they also<br \/>\nattract criminals. And in the Middle East region, they attract terrorists.\u00a0 And so, there was a<br \/>\ncertain amount of terrorist finance going through Dubai. And the government has made an<br \/>\neffort to really crack down on that.\u00a0 From what I understand, from the bankers that I talk to,<br \/>\nit&#8217;s not as easy to launder money in Dubai as it used to be.\u00a0 There are stricter rules, and<br \/>\nparticularly, there&#8217;s stricter rules in the ports.<\/p>\n<p>The container terminals have been endorsed and sanctioned by United States Homeland<br \/>\nSecurity, in Dubai.\u00a0 So, we&#8217;re seeing a lot less of that.\u00a0 But sometimes the question is asked<br \/>\nis that Dubai, is this place where Saudis go to sin.\u00a0 And, Iranians go have a drink.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: It is?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Because there is this vast underbelly.\u00a0 There is this place where you have<br \/>\nprostitutes.\u00a0 You have bars.\u00a0 You have nightclubs.\u00a0 And people from all across the region are<br \/>\nattracted to that, just as much as they&#8217;re attracted to the business and the trade and the<br \/>\ntourist attractions.<\/p>\n<p>So, why wouldn&#8217;t Al-Qaeda strike at this place that is known as, seemingly, this den of vice.<br \/>\nSome bankers and some people in financial circles have suggested that even though the<br \/>\ngovernment has taken very significant steps to prevent money laundering, the terrorists need<br \/>\nhubs just as much as anybody else.\u00a0 And so, by striking at Dubai, they&#8217;d be striking<br \/>\npotentially at a hub that they might be using right now.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Because it is after all, in a very dangerous part of the world.\u00a0 But, the<br \/>\nEmirates is a fairly stable region.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: That&#8217;s right.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: So, your suggestion is that it&#8217;s remained stable because there&#8217;s<br \/>\nterrorist money that&#8217;s blowing through here.\u00a0 So, why would they want to bite the hand that<br \/>\nfeeds them?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: There certainly could be an element to that. Now, from everything I&#8217;ve<br \/>\nheard, the government of the United Arab Emirates has made a decision.\u00a0 And this was a<br \/>\ndecision they made after 9\/11, after there was some pressure from the international<br \/>\ncommunity and the United States, that they could no longer turn a blind eye to some of the<br \/>\nnefarious activities that were going in the United Arab Emirates.<\/p>\n<p>So, they have taken steps to tighten banking laws, to tighten laws against money laundering.<br \/>\nThey&#8217;ve begun prosecuting human traffickers for the first time.\u00a0 But, having said that, this is<br \/>\na boomtown.\u00a0 This is a place where it&#8217;s very difficult to track, there are ships and there are<br \/>\nsmall ports that come in from Somalia, from Iran, from east Africa, from other parts of the<br \/>\nregion.\u00a0 And it&#8217;s very difficult to track all of that economic activity.\u00a0 So, there certainly could<br \/>\nbe an element of what you just described as biting that hand that feeds you.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: So, I mean, we should be clear that these are just suggestions and<br \/>\nstories that&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Absolutely.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL:&#8211;you&#8217;ve heard, I mean, in your trips back and forth to Dubai.\u00a0 As a<br \/>\njournalist, I mean, we don&#8217;t have any evidence&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Sure, sure.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL:&#8211;to prove any of this&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Certainly, certainly.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: So, let&#8217;s talk about some of the incentives of the Emirates as a whole<br \/>\nare trying to provide in terms of luring more foreign investment and is the United States<br \/>\ntaking advantage of that investment?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Yeah.\u00a0 I think that basically what the United Arab Emirates has perfected<br \/>\nis the creation of these free trade zones.\u00a0 So, what they do is they&#8217;ll create a zone, often<br \/>\nattached to a court.\u00a0 And they&#8217;ll tell companies from around the world to set up.<\/p>\n<p>They&#8217;ll offer them no taxes.\u00a0 They&#8217;ll offer them world class infrastructure.\u00a0 If you set up in<br \/>\none of the free trade zones outside of Dubai, you have access to 160 destinations by plane<br \/>\nthrough Dubai International Airport.\u00a0 You have tax-free operation within the zone.<\/p>\n<p>You have excellent banking facilities.\u00a0 So, they basically create an environment that is<br \/>\namenable to business.\u00a0 Now, what are we seeing in terms of United States and the United<br \/>\nArab Emirates?\u00a0 Well, just last year, the United States exported 12 billion dollars worth of<br \/>\ngoods to the United Arab Emirates as a whole.\u00a0 Now, this accounted for 1\/4 of US exports to<br \/>\nthe entire Middle East region.<\/p>\n<p>So, clearly US exporters, US manufacturers are benefiting from the boom that is taking place<br \/>\nin the United Arab Emirates.\u00a0 And, right now there is still talk of a US\/UAE free trade<br \/>\nagreement, but that&#8217;s been held up in Congress.\u00a0 And it&#8217;s been held up in Congress partly for<br \/>\nsome of the same reasons that the Dubai Ports World deal was pushed back.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: But, the Emirates is an ally on the War on Terror.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: I agree with you on that&#8217;s why I don&#8217;t think this deal should be held up.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: So, what is it based on what?\u00a0 In the reality or just&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: I think it&#8217;s&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL:&#8211;perception?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: I think it\u2019s perception.\u00a0 I think it&#8217;s partly perception, partly campaign<br \/>\nseason politics.\u00a0 But it&#8217;s also partly because the United Arab Emirates, itself, has only recently<br \/>\nstarted reaching out to the American public, American Congress, the American media.\u00a0 It was<br \/>\nvery much focused on the British world and the Asian world.<\/p>\n<p>And I think people just didn&#8217;t understand this place.\u00a0 And I think as they get to understand it<br \/>\nmore, they will see that this is precisely the kind of place that the United States would want<br \/>\nto encourage.\u00a0 That the United States would want a free trade agreement with.\u00a0 Now, if the<br \/>\nUnited States were to demand certain things of the United Arab Emirates, for example, I<br \/>\nthink there are serious concerns about labor issues in the United Arab Emirates as a whole.<br \/>\nThere have been serious labor strikes.\u00a0 There are far too many cases where construction<br \/>\ncompanies are exploiting laborers\u2014not paying them on time, for example.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: That&#8217;s something that we do see in our film\u2014some of the complaints<br \/>\nthat migrant workers make.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Absolutely.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: And why aren&#8217;t these companies paying these people on time?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: I think that these are easy targets to some extent.\u00a0 Their embassies don&#8217;t<br \/>\ngo to bat for them.\u00a0 They can exploit them.\u00a0 They can defer paying them on time because<br \/>\nthey know, well, there&#8217;s more workers where they came from.\u00a0 And if they&#8217;re going to cause<br \/>\ntrouble, we can just force them to leave.\u00a0 It&#8217;s&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Do migrants have any rights in the Emirates?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: They have very little rights, in terms of labor rights.\u00a0 Now, only recently<br \/>\nthey&#8217;re developing laws that will allow them to unionize, but that&#8217;s only in Dubai in particular.<br \/>\nAnd Dubai is a good example of globalization forcing almost, a city state to reform positively.<\/p>\n<p>Because Dubai needs investment.\u00a0 They need a good reputation internationally.\u00a0 And so,<br \/>\ntherefore when, these stories break of labor exploitation or human trafficking\u2014it&#8217;s not<br \/>\nexactly\u2014neither is it morally right, but it&#8217;s not good for business.\u00a0 So, they&#8217;ve taken the most<br \/>\nsteps out of all the other Emirates to stem those problems.<\/p>\n<p>But in general, I mean, I think this is something that United States should push on.\u00a0 But it<br \/>\nshould not prevent the US from moving forward with a free trade agreement.\u00a0 Because we<br \/>\nhave free trade agreements with Bahrain which also has some of these same problems, with<br \/>\nOman, and with several other countries in the region, and Jordan included.\u00a0 And so, the<br \/>\nUnited Arab Emirates is the most dynamic economy in the region.\u00a0 It&#8217;s a hub.\u00a0\u00a0 See, I think<br \/>\nthis is an important point to remember.\u00a0 The United Arab Emirates is not just an Arab<br \/>\nregional economic hub.\u00a0 It&#8217;s an Asian hub. And what we&#8217;re witnessing today is almost this<br \/>\nnew Silk Road of trade and commerce between the Middle East and Asia.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Between the Middle East and Asia, yeah.\u00a0 Until&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Yeah.\u00a0 And the United Arab Emirates is smack in the middle of this new<br \/>\nSilk Road.\u00a0 So, it&#8217;s important for America to be a part of this new Silk Road of trade and<br \/>\ninvestment.\u00a0 It&#8217;s estimated that in the year 2007, we&#8217;re going to see 20 billion dollars of<br \/>\nMiddle East investment in Asia.\u00a0 This is only going to grow.<\/p>\n<p>Because when you&#8211; when we think of Dubai, you would think The Arab world.\u00a0 But the<br \/>\nreason that they&#8217;re successful is they haven&#8217;t confined themselves to the Arab world.\u00a0 And<br \/>\nthey are really feeding off the growth of India.\u00a0 They&#8217;re feeding off of some of the wealth of<br \/>\nIran.\u00a0 They&#8217;re feeding off of the&#8211; even the growth of China to some extent.\u00a0 And&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Well, some of the world&#8217;s richest people have put their money into the<br \/>\nEmirates.\u00a0 Where is this money coming from?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Well, a lot of money is coming from the United Arab Emirates\u2019 neighbors.<br \/>\nQatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman.\u00a0 All of these countries have benefited the high oil price.<br \/>\nAt last count, 65 dollars.\u00a0 And they looked around, and they&#8217;re particularly interested in<br \/>\ninvesting in their own region.\u00a0 So&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Why?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: I think partly, because they see new opportunities in their own region,<br \/>\npartly because it&#8217;s become more difficult for them to invest in the United States.\u00a0 The laws,<br \/>\nthat there have been some very high profile seizures of assets of prominent Arab investors.<br \/>\nIt&#8217;s difficult for them to get visas&#8211; to come to the United States.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: And this is all as a result of 9\/11?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: This is all as a result of 9\/11.\u00a0 So, when they looked around, they saw&#8211;<br \/>\nDubai in particular, but the United Arab Emirates as a whole, as an amenable environment<br \/>\nfor investment.\u00a0 But they&#8217;re also investing at home.\u00a0 In this small area of country, the Gulf<br \/>\nCooperation Council countries, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates<br \/>\nand Qatar, you have 1.5 trillion dollars that has come in to this region in the last five years.<br \/>\nAnd one trillion has stayed in the region in the form of investments in infrastructure or in the<br \/>\nform of imports of goods and services.\u00a0 And&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: And give us a who&#8217;s who of the people that are putting this money into<br \/>\nEmirates.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Absolutely.\u00a0 In addition to very prominent regional and Gulf investors,<br \/>\nyou also have major global players like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley.\u00a0 They both have<br \/>\nrecently opened offices in Dubai, in this new Dubai international financial center.\u00a0 It aims to<br \/>\nbe the major financial center between Hong Kong and London.\u00a0 You also see companies like<br \/>\nMicrosoft with offices in Dubai.<\/p>\n<p>You have companies, all over the technology industry that have set up in Dubai&#8217;s Internet<br \/>\nCity.\u00a0 But more importantly, even than many of those countries and many of the big names<br \/>\nlike Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, in so many ways, the United Arab Emirates is<br \/>\ngeographically located at this hub and this nexus of a growing economy of two billion people.<br \/>\nBecause if you look at the Indian subcontinent, the Iranian plateau, central Asia, the<br \/>\nCaucuses, the Arab states of the Persian Gulf and into Western China, you have about two<br \/>\nbillion people there.<\/p>\n<p>And, the rulers of Dubai were very smart early on.\u00a0 They said this region of two billion<br \/>\npeople, needs a tourist hub, they need a trade hub and a services hub.\u00a0 And we&#8217;re going to<br \/>\nbe that hub.<\/p>\n<p>And so, come the late 1950s they started building the infrastructure to what we see today.<br \/>\nAnd now Dubai and the United Arab Emirates is not solely an Arab city.\u00a0 It&#8217;s very much an<br \/>\nAsian city and it has very much become a major geo-economic hub in this part of the world.<br \/>\nAnd the last thing that I think&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Something like a Silk Road, perhaps?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Absolutely.\u00a0 When we think of the old Silk Road, the famed 9th through<br \/>\n13th century highway of goods, trade from China all the way to Venice&#8211; in places like Dubai<br \/>\nand Abu Dhabi, they were not part of that old Silk Road.\u00a0 But now, there&#8217;s a new Silk Road<br \/>\nthat&#8217;s forming, of trade between the Middle East and Asia, trade between these two regions<br \/>\nhas quadrupled in the past year.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s expected to quadruple again in the next few years.\u00a0 The Middle East is expected to put in<br \/>\n20 billion dollars of investments in Asia in the year 2007.\u00a0 So, we&#8217;re going to see this<br \/>\ncontinue to grow and it&#8217;s not only the United Arab Emirates, it&#8217;s Saudi Arabia and the other<br \/>\nGulf states as well.\u00a0 And so, this is I think something important for US foreign policy to<br \/>\nwatch.\u00a0 I mean, when we think of&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Are we not watching it?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: I get the sense that when we look at the Middle East region, we tend to<br \/>\nlook at the conflicts.\u00a0 We tend to look at the West Bank and Gaza and look at Lebanon, Iraq,<br \/>\nSyria, potential looming conflict with Iran.\u00a0 Obviously&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: So it&#8217;s about putting out the fires.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Absolutely.\u00a0 And we&#8217;re putting out a lot of fires.\u00a0 And obviously, those are<br \/>\nvery important fires for us to be trying to put out.\u00a0 But I also think that while we&#8217;re putting<br \/>\nout these fires, we may be missing out on some opportunities and particularly, positioning<br \/>\nourselves well in this new Silk Road of trade and traffic between the Middle East and Asia.\u00a0 To<br \/>\nactually push it along because this is good for America.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: So, what kind of foreign policy should we be crafting then?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Yeah, I think what we need and, in fact, is far more of a economic vision<br \/>\nfor this region.\u00a0 Because I think the growth of the Gulf region, the growth of this new Silk<br \/>\nRoad is good for America and here&#8217;s why.\u00a0 For so many years after World War II, the mission<br \/>\nof America was the spreading of prosperity around the world.<\/p>\n<p>And we did it with things like the Marshall Plan, where we invested a lot of our own treasure.<br \/>\nAnd we spent a lot of our own resources in trying to develop a economies in eastern Europe.<br \/>\nWell after 9\/11, President Bush, in addition to his agenda of democracy promotion, he&#8217;s also<br \/>\npursued an agenda of economic development in the region.\u00a0 And he&#8217;s called for Middle East<br \/>\nfree trade zones.<\/p>\n<p>Well, we haven&#8217;t done as much on that agenda as we&#8217;ve tried to do on the democracy<br \/>\nagenda.\u00a0 But the good news is that that agenda is kind of being taken care of itself.\u00a0 And,<br \/>\nwe&#8217;re seeing this development without US involvement.\u00a0 We&#8217;re seeing this new Silk Road<br \/>\ndevelop without US involvement.\u00a0 And I think the US can certainly help fuel it&#8211; but the good<br \/>\nnews is we don&#8217;t have to drive it and that&#8217;s important.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: So, you&#8217;re saying that the United States is missing the boat, both<br \/>\neconomically, but also in terms of securing its future security in that part of the world?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Yeah.\u00a0 Well, there&#8217;s going to be a point when China is going to step in and<br \/>\nsay to the United States, &#8220;Hey, listen.\u00a0 We import far more oil from the Persian Gulf region<br \/>\nthan you do.&#8221;\u00a0 And they may want to play a role in Persian Gulf oil security.<\/p>\n<p>In the year 2020, China is going to import three times as much oil from the Persian Gulf<br \/>\nregion as the United States does.\u00a0 Well, right now the United States is effectively providing a<br \/>\nsecurity umbrella not only for the Gulf state, but for China.\u00a0 China may find that no longer<br \/>\nsustainable.\u00a0 But this is an opportunity for China and United States to work together.\u00a0 So,<br \/>\nwhat I&#8217;m saying is that this growth in the Gulf region offers a lot of opportunities for US<br \/>\npolicy to work together with the Chinas of the world, with the Indias of the world and with<br \/>\nthese Gulf states.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Talk about how the Emirates fits into the global economy.\u00a0 After all,<br \/>\nDubai is growing at nearly twice the rate that China is.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Right.\u00a0 That&#8217;s right, that&#8217;s right.\u00a0 When you look at the United Arab<br \/>\nEmirates as part of the global economy, what you have is&#8211; I have to repeat myself.\u00a0 But<br \/>\nwhat you have is the United Arab Emirates is a geo-economic hub of emerging Asia.\u00a0 An<br \/>\nemerging area with a population of about two billion people, with a GDP of about two trillion<br \/>\ndollars, that is growing at about 5% per year.<\/p>\n<p>But when you look at the global economy and you look at what&#8217;s happening in the Middle<br \/>\nEast region as a whole, the Middle East region is diverse and it&#8217;s not monolithic.\u00a0 But it does<br \/>\nhave one thing in common.\u00a0 It&#8217;s young.\u00a0 And you have a lot of young people about to enter<br \/>\nthe job market.<\/p>\n<p>The World Bank estimates that the Middle East\/North Africa region is going to need to create<br \/>\na hundred million jobs a year by the year 2020 just to keep up with the young population.<br \/>\nThe average Arab is 21 years old.\u00a0 Well, you&#8217;re going to need growth areas like the United<br \/>\nArab Emirates, (a.) to attract people for jobs, but (b.) to use some of that excess capital to<br \/>\ninvest in the most populous Arab states like Morocco and Egypt and Jordan that are not doing<br \/>\nas well as the Gulf states.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: But the boom in the Emirates, I mean, it&#8217;s a rare success story in an<br \/>\narea of the Middle East which is characterized by corruption, by stagnation.\u00a0 Can what&#8217;s<br \/>\nhappening in the Emirates be seen as a blueprint for the rest of Middle East?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: I think that&#8217;s a very important question, Daljit.\u00a0 And I think in many<br \/>\nways, you are seeing the Dubai model being talked about across the region.\u00a0 You are seeing<br \/>\naspects of the United Arab Emirates model being emulated in the region.<\/p>\n<p>You&#8217;re seeing Saudi Arabia start to develop the kind of free trade zones and industrial<br \/>\nclusters that the United Arab Emirates has been developing for the past several years.\u00a0 You&#8217;re<br \/>\nstarting to see Egypt, Jordan and others develop some of the kind of regulatory environments<br \/>\nthat Dubai had developed.\u00a0 But I think what Dubai has done and what the United Arab<br \/>\nEmirates has done as a whole is, it has made the region think bigger.<\/p>\n<p>It has set ambitious targets.\u00a0 It has raised the bar in so many ways.\u00a0 So, if you&#8217;re a member<br \/>\nof the business elite of Egypt or of Jordan, or of Saudi Arabia, you visit the United Arab<br \/>\nEmirates, when you go home and you say, &#8220;Why can&#8217;t we do some of the things that they&#8217;re<br \/>\ndoing?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: But do they like that vision?\u00a0 I mean, do they like the vision of, for<br \/>\nexample, in Dubai, it has the world&#8217;s first seven star hotel.\u00a0 It has an underwater restaurant<br \/>\nthat&#8217;s reachable by submarine.\u00a0 Is that the vision that they would like to see translated<br \/>\nacross the Emirates?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Yeah.\u00a0 I think that it&#8217;s an important question because Dubai is both the<br \/>\nsource of envy and admiration for its regulatory environment, it&#8217;s environment for business.<br \/>\nBut it&#8217;s also a source of scorn for some of the crass materialism, some of the underbelly or<br \/>\nsome of the leniency towards things like prostitution that takes place in Dubai.<\/p>\n<p>So, someone from Saudi Arabia will not say I want to emulate the Dubai model in that<br \/>\nrespect.\u00a0 But they do say that they would like to see a world class business environment in<br \/>\nSaudi Arabia just like there is in Dubai.\u00a0 So, people can cherry pick aspects of the Dubai<br \/>\nmodel and aspects of what&#8217;s going on in United Arab Emirates.\u00a0 And what I like about what<br \/>\nI&#8217;m seeing today in the United Arab Emirates, I like to see that ambition.<\/p>\n<p>When Dubai said they&#8217;re going to build the largest airport in the world&#8211; and it&#8217;s going to be<br \/>\ntwice the size of Heathrow\u2014we may scoff.\u00a0 We may say, &#8220;Ha.\u00a0 What are these people<br \/>\nthinking?&#8221;\u00a0 You know, but people have been scoffing at Dubai and at the United Arab<br \/>\nEmirates for about 50 years now.<\/p>\n<p>In the late 1950s when Sheikh Rashid Bin Saeed, the father of modern Dubai, decided to<br \/>\ndredge the Dubai creek to open it more to ships, people scoffed and said, &#8220;No, people are not<br \/>\ngoing to come to Dubai.\u00a0 Why is he doing that?&#8221;\u00a0 But he did it.<\/p>\n<p>He leveraged his economy on it and it worked.\u00a0 And they kept doing that with ports and<br \/>\nairports.\u00a0 And Ras Al Khaimah is starting to do it now.\u00a0 Ras Al Khaimah, the film we just saw,<br \/>\nI don&#8217;t think we would see Ras Al Khaimah doing the things that they&#8217;re doing were it not for<br \/>\nwhat Dubai has done.<\/p>\n<p>Dubai in so many ways set the standard, it paved the way.\u00a0 But places like Ras Al Khaimah<br \/>\ncan pick and choose from aspects of what they saw in Dubai.\u00a0 They don&#8217;t have to choose<br \/>\neverything that Dubai has done.\u00a0 And they can do it their own way.<\/p>\n<p>And, what I would hope to see is&#8211; I&#8217;d like to see Ras Al Khaimah have this ambition.\u00a0 It&#8217;s<br \/>\ngood to see them want to develop their economy in this way.\u00a0 But I would hope they would<br \/>\nalso preserve some of the architectural heritage of Ras Al Khaimah.\u00a0 I would hope they would<br \/>\nalso preserve some of the oasis and some of the natural beauty of Ras Al Khaimah.\u00a0 Because<br \/>\nnot only do I think that&#8217;s good for the United Arab Emirates as a whole, but it&#8217;s actually a<br \/>\ngood tourist strategy.\u00a0 Because tourists would like to see those as well as the shopping malls<br \/>\nas well.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: And possibly an environmental disaster could be looming as well.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: You know, this is an important question because a lot of the development<br \/>\nthat has taken place in the United Arab Emirates, but particularly in Dubai, particularly<br \/>\noffshore in the Persian Gulf, has destroyed coral reef.\u00a0 Has been very damaging to the fish<br \/>\nenvironment and this is a question that boomtowns always face.\u00a0 You&#8217;re always going to<br \/>\ndestroy certain parts of the environment when you build at such a rapid pace.<\/p>\n<p>And in this case of Ras Al Khaimah, it seems that they are building in a desert.\u00a0 So, there&#8217;s<br \/>\ngoing to be less life-forms that are going to die.\u00a0 And, when you&#8217;re building in the desert, one<br \/>\npeople that in the United Arab Emirates will tell you is that they have plenty of sand.\u00a0 So,<br \/>\nsometimes we in the West, we get nostalgic for a pristine, oasis and serenity.\u00a0 Whereas<br \/>\npeople over there, they actually want this kind of development and they want the shopping<br \/>\nmalls and the hotels.\u00a0 Because it creates jobs, but it also creates a certain amount of<br \/>\neconomic development.\u00a0 But I think they would like to see it done in a sustainable fashion,<br \/>\nand one that is not, perhaps, as high speed as what has been going in neighboring Dubai.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: According to Thomas Friedman, Dubai is where we should want the<br \/>\nArab world to go.\u00a0 And he says that it&#8217;s a place that embodies the narrative of globalization<br \/>\nas progress.\u00a0 What do you think?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: I think Thomas Friedman is right.\u00a0 I think that the key to Dubai and the<br \/>\nkey to the United Arab Emirates is good governments.\u00a0 We talk a lot about the lack of<br \/>\ndemocracy in the Arab world, which is true.\u00a0 But what the Arab has also lacked is good<br \/>\ngovernments, simply good leaders who manage economies well, who develop their nations.<\/p>\n<p>I mean, take a look across the region.\u00a0 You have countries like Egypt.\u00a0 You have countries<br \/>\nlike Libya.\u00a0 Countries that have enormous potential and yet, are dramatically underperforming their potential. And then you see the UAE.\u00a0 This small state on the shores of the Persian Gulf dramatically punching way above their weight.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: But in some ways, they are also autocratic.\u00a0 I mean, they don&#8217;t have&#8211;<br \/>\nelections&#8211; free elections at least&#8211; in the same way that we do in the United States.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: That&#8217;s right.\u00a0 The United Arab Emirates, the great irony is that they are<br \/>\nsocially modern.\u00a0 They are in many ways, economically modern, but by no means do they<br \/>\nhave openings for political spaces.\u00a0 In fact, United Arab Emirates, there&#8217;s probably less<br \/>\npolitical space than in Saudi Arabia, for example.<\/p>\n<p>Saudi Arabia recently held municipal elections.\u00a0 United Arab Emirates held very limited<br \/>\nelections for 20 seats in a 40 seat national body that had very little or no power.\u00a0 So, what<br \/>\nthe United Arab Emirates is doing to some extent is the Singapore model, where you have a<br \/>\nbenevolent autocrat that goes in there, develops the economy.\u00a0 Exploits globalization for the<br \/>\ngood of the economy, for growth and all of these things.<\/p>\n<p>But, you don&#8217;t have the kind of openings that you would have in other parts of the region.<br \/>\nFor example, in Iran, civil society is probably more vibrant than in United Arab Emirates.\u00a0 But<br \/>\nyou don&#8217;t have a democracy there either.<\/p>\n<p>And the same goes for Egypt.\u00a0 And so, it cuts through the heart of what people really want<br \/>\nout of life.\u00a0 And I think it&#8217;s very clear.\u00a0 You don&#8217;t have a great deal of viable political<br \/>\nopposition to the rulers and people tend to be generally content with their rulers.\u00a0 There&#8217;s<br \/>\ngrumbling about the fast pace of growth.\u00a0 There&#8217;s&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: So, they&#8217;re not restless for the more political participation&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: No, no.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL:&#8211;because the fruits of the boom of keeping them happy&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: The United Arab Emirates, like many of the Gulf states, is to some extent<br \/>\na welfare state, where they provide a great deal to their people in the form of health services<br \/>\nand social services, and public sector jobs.\u00a0 And this is kind of the old Gulf bargain&#8211; and and<br \/>\nthis old Gulf bargain is going to fray at some point as the populations grow and as public<br \/>\nsectors grow smaller.\u00a0 So, right now it&#8217;s working.\u00a0 But how long it&#8217;s going to work remains an<br \/>\nopen question.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Do you think that the Emirates, exemplified by a successful Dubai that<br \/>\nwe heard about in our film and this ambitious Ras Al Khaimah, to some extent, are tossing<br \/>\naside their traditions and their Arab\/Muslim culture?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: This is an important question.\u00a0 And when you talk to many people in the<br \/>\nUnited Arab Emirates, particularly in Dubai, there is a certain amount of frustration at the<br \/>\nhigh speed of development.\u00a0 There is a frustration that some of the aspects of their culture<br \/>\nand heritage are being put aside.<\/p>\n<p>However, having said that, in one respect, Dubai is embracing its culture, because Dubai,<br \/>\nafter all and the United Arab Emirates in general was never Baghdad or Damascus or Cairo or<br \/>\nTehran, old Middle East civilization centers with old and deep cultures.\u00a0 Dubai was always a<br \/>\nport city.\u00a0 And in many ways, Dubai has embraced its port city identity in a 21st century<br \/>\nambitious hyper-globalized way.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: So, it&#8217;s always been a bit of a crossroads, a little bit like, I don&#8217;t know,<br \/>\nIstanbul?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Absolutely, yeah.\u00a0 It has always been a crossroads, but it never really had<br \/>\nthe kind of civilizational heft that Istanbul had.\u00a0 And so, in many ways, there are often<br \/>\ncomplaints about Dubai being somewhat artificial or lacking in identity.\u00a0 But Dubai has<br \/>\nembraced its identity because its identity is a crossroads, a port city&#8211; a place where<br \/>\nmerchants gather to trade.\u00a0 This is something that Dubai has been doing for centuries.\u00a0 And<br \/>\nthey simply are doing it now in a 21st century, ambitious, hyper-globalized way in which, if<br \/>\nall goes according to plan, they&#8217;re going to have the largest airport in the world and the largest airline in the world.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: So, they&#8217;re not really losing their culture, but they&#8217;re recreating their<br \/>\nidentity, given the fact that 80% of the population are expats.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: That&#8217;s right.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: And overseas workers from the subcontinent.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: No.\u00a0 I think that&#8217;s right.\u00a0 I mean, my own view is that Dubai has<br \/>\nrecreated an identity for themselves that is very much in tune with their old identity which<br \/>\nwas a port city, a city of merchants, a city of traders.\u00a0 Now, some of the other Emirates,<br \/>\nbecause Dubai is one of seven Emirates in the country known as the United Arab Emirates,<br \/>\nsome of those other Emirates do not have that mercantile tradition of Dubai.\u00a0 And so, when<br \/>\nyou go to other parts of the UAE like Fujaira, for example, you do see aspects of old Emirati<br \/>\ntraditions retained.\u00a0 Whereas in Dubai, you don&#8217;t have a lot of concern about having lost<br \/>\nsomething.\u00a0 Because in so many ways, they&#8217;re simply doing what they&#8217;ve been doing for<br \/>\ncenturies.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: We talked a little bit about how our foreign policy, in the Middle East<br \/>\nhas essentially been about putting out fires.\u00a0 I mean, are we at our peril ignoring the<br \/>\nopportunities that the Emirates has to offer?\u00a0 Not just in terms of the economic fruits, but<br \/>\nalso how it could help secure our security into the future?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: I think so.\u00a0 I think fundamentally when we think about US foreign policy<br \/>\nin the Middle East, I think we need to change our paradigm of thinking about the Middle East.<\/p>\n<p>And I think there&#8217;s almost two Middle Easts forming right now.\u00a0 When you look at a map<br \/>\ngeographically, roughly from Egypt on to Syria, and Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, onto Iraq and<br \/>\nIran, you almost have this arc of crisis or potential crisis or relative instability.<\/p>\n<p>And then almost, when you go to the southern part of the Middle East, particularly this<br \/>\nPersian Gulf region, you have an entirely different Middle East.\u00a0 It&#8217;s a different vibe.\u00a0 When<br \/>\nthere&#8217;s crisis in the West Bank and Gaza, you just don&#8217;t feel it in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.<br \/>\nYou&#8217;re not even feeling any spillover from the real, raging sectarian civil war in Iraq in places<br \/>\nlike the United Arab Emirates.<\/p>\n<p>And so, here you have a region that is growing.\u00a0 You have a region that is not engaged, that<br \/>\nis almost not even affected by some of the real problems that are taking place in other parts<br \/>\nof the Middle East.\u00a0 And I think it&#8217;s a real opportunity for us to engage more proactively with<br \/>\nthese governments and to build their economies.\u00a0 But to do one thing.\u00a0 The question is, how<br \/>\ndo you get the Middle East that is growing and prosperous and relatively stable to influence<br \/>\nthe Middle East that is more unstable, that is gripped by war and gripped by violence?\u00a0 And I<br \/>\nthink that&#8217;s a fundamental paradigmatic shift that US policy ought to be looking at in the long<br \/>\nterm.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Well, you and the Bush Administration agree that a new Middle East is<br \/>\nbeing born out there.<\/p>\n<p>So, is the region a safe haven for the United States when it comes to investment?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: I think so.\u00a0 I mean, we&#8217;re already seeing that happen in the sense that<br \/>\nwe&#8217;re seeing companies like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and others flocking to the<br \/>\nUnited Arab Emirates to set up offices.\u00a0 And after all, Halliburton moved its Houston<br \/>\nheadquarters to Dubai.\u00a0 And they did that not&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: I think it&#8217;s their corporate headquarters, right?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Yes, they moved their corporate headquarters to Dubai and their CEO<br \/>\noperates out of Dubai now.\u00a0 Now, Halliburton has done this, not necessarily only because of<br \/>\nthe Dubai market or the United Arab Emirates market, they&#8217;ve done it because they see<br \/>\nDubai as a hub for all of Asia.<\/p>\n<p>They see it as a hub for their business in India, business in East Africa.\u00a0 It&#8217;s a shorter flight<br \/>\nfrom Dubai to Bombay than it is from Dubai to Cairo.\u00a0 So, in many ways the United Arab<br \/>\nEmirates is an Asian geo-economic hub, not only a Middle East economic hub.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: And how does it play into other countries then, like India, like Iran, for<br \/>\nexample?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Dubai and the United Arab Emirates as a whole has become in so many<br \/>\nways, a very integral part of Iran&#8217;s economy.\u00a0 There are nine thousand Iranian businesses<br \/>\noperating in Dubai.\u00a0 There are four hundred thousand Iranians living in Dubai.<\/p>\n<p>And, Iran&#8217;s economy is poorly managed.\u00a0 As a result, many Iranian businesses are leaving<br \/>\nand moving to Dubai.\u00a0 And in many ways, the United Arab Emirates as a whole has benefited<br \/>\nfrom the lack of competencies of its neighbors.\u00a0 And so, there&#8217;s a lot of capital in Iran.<\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s a lot of capital in Egypt.\u00a0 A lot of capital in places like Saudi Arabia.\u00a0 Well, they&#8217;ve<br \/>\nbeen frustrated by the fact that they don&#8217;t have many good investment opportunities at<br \/>\nhome.\u00a0 So, they come into places like the United Arab Emirates.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: You and the administration agree that a new Middle East is being born,<br \/>\nbut you disagree on what it is.\u00a0 Talk about that a little bit.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Sure, absolutely.\u00a0 Last summer what was very interesting, during the<br \/>\nheight of the Israel\/Hezbollah\/Lebanon war, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice described<br \/>\nthat war as the birth pangs of a new Middle East.\u00a0 But to me, that looked like the old Middle<br \/>\nEast. You had an Israel war with Arabs.\u00a0 You had a lot of tension.\u00a0 You had this potential for<br \/>\nviolence exploding beyond the Israel\/Lebanon region.\u00a0 That looked a lot to me like the old<br \/>\nMiddle East.<\/p>\n<p>But around that same time, there was a prominent Saudi Arabian company that offered an<br \/>\ninitial public offering.\u00a0 And ten million Saudis went out to buy shares in that initial public<br \/>\noffering, half of the adult population.\u00a0 Saudi Arabia was witnessing that kind of boom that we<br \/>\nwitnessed in the late 1990s with the technology boom.\u00a0 And what I had been seeing in my<br \/>\ntravels, particularly in Dubai, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf region, is a new business dynamism<br \/>\nforming. A new economic dynamism forming, where you had governments getting macro<br \/>\nregulatory policies right.\u00a0 You had a more innovative and sophisticated private sector.<br \/>\nBecause in my view, the key crisis facing the Middle East has not been necessarily a political<br \/>\ncrisis, it&#8217;s been an economic crisis.<\/p>\n<p>If you look at the trajectory of the Middle East, from the period 1970-September 11th, 2001,<br \/>\nthe Middle East region as a whole grew at less than 1% per year.\u00a0 This was less than even<br \/>\nSub-Saharan Africa grew.\u00a0 So, you have this economic underdevelopment.\u00a0 Combine that<br \/>\nwith large, young populations and you combine that together and you have an explosive mix.<br \/>\nSo, it&#8217;s after 2001, as a result of the oil price rise and as a result of governments coming in<br \/>\nthat are more reform-minded, particularly economically, we&#8217;re starting to see the first<br \/>\nflowerings of a business renaissance in the Arab world.\u00a0 And ultimately, I think that&#8217;s the new<br \/>\nMiddle East that could potentially shape the region&#8211; not a Lebanon\/Israel war.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: But is your version of a new Middle East more than the Emirates?\u00a0 Is it<br \/>\nSyria?\u00a0 Is it Saudi?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Yeah.\u00a0 That&#8217;s the fundamental question.\u00a0 What we are seeing is in places<br \/>\nlike Egypt, we are seeing very significant economic reforms that are taking place.\u00a0 Egypt has<br \/>\ngrown at 6% a year the last couple of years.\u00a0 And your question is absolutely right.\u00a0 Because<br \/>\nfor the Middle East to grow out of this economic crisis, it&#8217;s not going to grow out of it by the<br \/>\nsmall city states like the United Arab Emirates and Qatar and Bahrain.\u00a0 You need the Egypts<br \/>\nand the Syrias and the Irans, the big populous countries in the region to grow at that level.<br \/>\nAnd we&#8217;re starting to see it now.\u00a0 We still have a long way to go.<\/p>\n<p>A country like Egypt, deeply damaged by 50 years of bad economic management, command<br \/>\nand control economies, corruption.\u00a0 So the economic reforms that are taking place now, we<br \/>\nmay not see it trickle down to the larger population of Egyptians for another ten or 15 years.<br \/>\nBut they have started.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: So, all this money, where it&#8217;s coming from?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Well, a lot of the money in the region that has come into the United Arab<br \/>\nEmirates has come from its neighbors.\u00a0 The oil price rise has lead to Saudi Arabia having a lot<br \/>\nof money at its disposal.\u00a0 Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and they&#8217;re investing a lot of that in the<br \/>\nUnited Arab Emirates because there&#8217;s so many investment opportunities.<\/p>\n<p>And then you have the major western players.\u00a0 You have Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley,<br \/>\nDeutsche Bank, HSBC Bank.\u00a0 They&#8217;re all investing in United Arab Emirates or using it as a<br \/>\nhub.\u00a0 And then you also have some of the more glitzy investments, the investments in the<br \/>\nislands that they&#8217;re building in the sea.\u00a0 For example, the international soccer star, David<br \/>\nBeckham, has bought a villa.\u00a0 Julio Iglesias and Rod Stewart have reportedly bought villas&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: That&#8217;s quite a who&#8217;s who of&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Absolutely.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL:&#8211;people in the Emirates.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Absolutely. It really is.\u00a0 And, I suppose you&#8217;ve arrived on the international<br \/>\nglamour map when the supermodel, Naomi Campbell, hosts her birthday party in Dubai, at<br \/>\none of the glitzy hotels known as the Burj al-Arab.\u00a0 So, they&#8217;ve certainly managed to place<br \/>\nthemselves in the world of glitzy, glamour capitals.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Was the Dubai model intended to wean the Emirates off oil?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Very much so.\u00a0 Dubai rulers saw very early on that their oil reserves were<br \/>\nnot nearly the amount of oil reserves in places like Kuwait or Saudi Arabia or even in their<br \/>\nneighboring Emirate of Abu Dhabi.\u00a0 And so, from the very beginning they decided that what<br \/>\nthey needed to do is create an environment that&#8217;s good for business.<\/p>\n<p>Now, Sheikh Rashid Bin Saeed Al Maktoum, who&#8217;s the father of modern Dubai, who ruled<br \/>\nfrom the 1950s till 1990, he had a great line once.\u00a0 He said, &#8220;What&#8217;s good for the merchants<br \/>\nis good for Dubai.&#8221;\u00a0 And that has become almost the unofficial motto of Dubai and in many<br \/>\nrespects, the unofficial motto of the United Arab Emirates.<\/p>\n<p>From the early 19th century, when the Al Maktoum family took over Dubai to 1971 when the<br \/>\nUnited Arab Emirates was formed as a country, remember, this is a very young country that<br \/>\nhad gathered together seven disparate sheikhdoms.\u00a0 Put them together in one country<br \/>\nbecause the British, who protected them decided to leave in 1968.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: So, they&#8217;re all run like a monarchy.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Abso&#8211; well&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: All of the Emirates?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: I would argue that they are more&#8211; I call them sheikhocracies, in a sense-<br \/>\nDALJIT DHALIWAL: What&#8217;s the difference?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: The difference is that, in monarchy, you think of a king as having this<br \/>\nabsolute, almost capricious arbitrary power&#8211; to decide the fate of a nation.\u00a0 In<br \/>\nsheikhocracies, you have regular gatherings of the ruling sheikhs and the elite of the city<br \/>\nstates.\u00a0 They gather\u2014the discuss&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: That&#8217;s what&#8211; they listen, but they don&#8217;t implement what the people&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Well&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL:&#8211;raise in these majlises, do they?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Perhaps.\u00a0 But I would argue that in a place like, take for example, Dubai.<br \/>\nIf tomorrow the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammad Bin Rashid, decided he was going to<br \/>\nreverse course, 180 degrees and he was going to say, &#8220;You know what?\u00a0 I&#8217;m not going to<br \/>\nopen up the economy anymore.\u00a0 I don&#8217;t want to trade with the outside world.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>I think he would, in a matter of a few years, be gently pushed aside by other members of the<br \/>\nsheikhocracy.\u00a0 Make no mistake about it.\u00a0 The ruler has enormous power and what we saw in<br \/>\nthe film, the ruler, the prince of Ras Al Khaimah, Sheikh Saud ibn Saqr al-Qasimi, who is in<br \/>\neffect, the de facto ruler, he has enormous power.\u00a0 Don&#8217;t you, remember in that one scene<br \/>\nwhen they came to him, he ultimately had final say on whether the project went forward or<br \/>\ndid not go forward.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: So, it&#8217;s final say, but you&#8217;re saying it&#8217;s not&#8211; he doesn&#8217;t run it like he&#8217;s<br \/>\nan absolutist monarch.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: It&#8217;s just not the culture of rule in these sheikhdoms.\u00a0 The culture of rule<br \/>\nin the sheikhdom is one in which the ruler has the final say, but he does gather the leading<br \/>\nelites in these gatherings called majlises.\u00a0 And they discuss the future of their Emirate.\u00a0 And&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Why is it only the elites that get a say?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Well, I think that&#8217;s the key question, and what we&#8217;re going to see going<br \/>\nforward is, as you grow middle classes and as people have&#8211;their basic needs are covered,<br \/>\nwell, they&#8217;re going to want to have more of a say in THE future of the country.\u00a0 And right now<br \/>\nthe way that elections have been held in United Arab Emirates&#8211; it&#8217;s with a very small pool of<br \/>\npeople who are allowed to vote, for a very small number of candidates in an insignificant<br \/>\nbody.<\/p>\n<p>Will the people of the United Arab Emirates push for greater openness, greater democracy&#8211;<br \/>\nthus far, they haven&#8217;t.\u00a0 It&#8217;s not like a place&#8211;like Egypt or Syria or Iran, where you&#8217;re there<br \/>\nand you feel the restiveness of the people.\u00a0 You feel the frustration of the people at their<br \/>\nrulers.<\/p>\n<p>In the United Arab Emirates, you just don&#8217;t feel that same sense of frustration and<br \/>\nrestiveness and clamoring for greater openness, partly because it&#8217;s a young country.\u00a0 Partly<br \/>\nbecause we have to remember, if you lived in the United Arab Emirates in the 1960s,<br \/>\nchances are you lived in a tent.\u00a0 And now, suddenly you&#8217;ve gone from, in one generation,<br \/>\nfrom tents to skyscrapers.<\/p>\n<p>Now, this can be very disorienting, and this can be something that the people of the Emirates<br \/>\nmight get frustrated at.\u00a0 They might feel that they&#8217;re losing out on some of their culture.\u00a0 But<br \/>\nto many people, they see enormous opportunities here that they didn&#8217;t have in the past.<\/p>\n<p>They don&#8217;t die from preventable diseases anymore.\u00a0 They don&#8217;t die from malaria anymore.<br \/>\nThey have excellent healthcare&#8211; excellent roads.\u00a0 There&#8217;s no nostalgia for the fact that it<br \/>\ntook people from Dubai ten hours across blistering deserts to get to Ras Al Khaimah.\u00a0 Now,<br \/>\nthey can get to Ras Al Khaimah on this new road that&#8217;s going to take 45 minutes.\u00a0 So, I think<br \/>\nthey&#8217;ve embraced these developments in many ways.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: What do you think is the most dangerous problem for the Emirates?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: I think the most dangerous problem for the Emirates is going to be, now,<br \/>\nhow are they going to manage this large expatriate population that, in some respects, is<br \/>\ngoing to begin clamoring for rights in their own respect.\u00a0 We&#8217;ve seen the laborers begin to<br \/>\nclamor for rights.\u00a0 We&#8217;ve seen labor strikes in United Arab Emirates.<\/p>\n<p>We have seen professionals from the Indian subcontinent, who are facing high inflation and<br \/>\nthose sort of things.\u00a0 If they decide to leave suddenly, I mean, these are the people who<br \/>\nrunning the boats, the plumbing&#8211;the inner stuffings of the United Arab Emirates.\u00a0 And I think<br \/>\nat some point they&#8217;re going to have to bring them into the larger national project.\u00a0 They&#8217;re<br \/>\ngoing to have to, frankly, make them feel more welcome in the United Arab Emirates.\u00a0 And I<br \/>\nthink that&#8217;s a real challenge going forward.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: What do they do to look after what is essentially 80% of the<br \/>\npopulation?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: It is extraordinary.\u00a0 I mean, you have a country where 80% of the<br \/>\npopulation are not citizens of that country.\u00a0 And in a place like Dubai, it&#8217;s something like 90%<br \/>\nare not citizens.\u00a0 And so, to some extent, many of those expatriates have come to the United<br \/>\nArab Emirates because it provides them opportunities that they don&#8217;t get back home.<\/p>\n<p>And so, they&#8217;ve come from places like India and Iran and Egypt and Jordan and other places.<br \/>\nAnd they don&#8217;t have those same kind of opportunities.\u00a0 So, they&#8217;re happy to be there.\u00a0 But,<br \/>\nas&#8211;<br \/>\nDALJIT DHALIWAL: They want to get paid as well for the&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Of course, they want to get paid.\u00a0 And so, one of the things that we often<br \/>\nfocused on, the laborers and I think that&#8217;s important.\u00a0 And Dubai will never be a great city<br \/>\nuntil it&#8217;s a good city.\u00a0 And by that I mean, until they take care of the less fortunate, and<br \/>\nparticularly, these laborers.<\/p>\n<p>But Dubai, the United Arab Emirates as a whole, has also been a beacon of opportunity for<br \/>\nmany, particularly from the Indian middle class and the Pakistani middle class and the<br \/>\nIranian middle class.\u00a0 The joke among many of the affluent professional Indians in Dubai is<br \/>\nthat Dubai is the best city in India. Because there&#8217;s so many of them&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Not to be confused with Mumbai.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: That&#8217;s right, exactly.\u00a0 And, Bollywood holds its annual Oscars event&#8211; its<br \/>\nOscar equivalent event in Dubai.\u00a0 It doesn&#8217;t even hold it in Mumbai anymore.\u00a0 So, you see in<br \/>\nthe United Arab Emirates as a whole, you have more than 150 nationalities living side by side<br \/>\nin one place, and with relatively little in the way of ethnic conflict.\u00a0 So, it&#8217;s a very interesting<br \/>\nsociological experiment.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: But does it also in a way, take the political pressure off the ruling<br \/>\nfamily to make reforms because 80 percent of the population around agitating for political<br \/>\nreforms?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Yeah.\u00a0 It&#8211; it does. It does take pressure off the ruling family and in<br \/>\naddition to the 80 percent, the 20 percent that are United Arab Emirates nationals are also<br \/>\nnot particularly agitating very strongly for political reforms as well.\u00a0 So, you have a situation<br \/>\nwhere the ruling elites in all of these Emirates do not feel under much pressure.<\/p>\n<p>And, to be fair to them, they&#8217;ve governed their realm fairly well.\u00a0 They&#8217;ve provided for their<br \/>\npeople fairly well.\u00a0 I mean, these are not, rulers who have underperformed, who have raped<br \/>\ntheir countries, who pillaged their countries.\u00a0 These are not Muammar Ghaddafis of Libya or<br \/>\neven Hosni Mubaraks of Egypt who have really dramatically underperformed the potential of<br \/>\ntheir people and their countries.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: What does the Emirates want to be, the capital of living large?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Yes. I think Dubai in some respects has become somewhat of the capital<br \/>\nof living large.\u00a0 But there is some tension with some of the other Emirates.\u00a0 For example, Abu<br \/>\nDhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, the oil-rich capital, they&#8217;re trying to position<br \/>\nthemselves as more of the, for upscale tourists.<\/p>\n<p>They are building museums.\u00a0 They are building a large Guggenheim center.\u00a0 They have<br \/>\nrecently signed an agreement with the Louvre in Paris to create the Louvre Abu Dhabi&#8211;<br \/>\nwhich would be their own version of the Louvre.\u00a0 And they would borrow art from that<br \/>\nmuseum.\u00a0 Now, some people have chuckled and said, this is buying culture.\u00a0 But they&#8217;re<br \/>\ndoing this to some extent, consciously, as a counterpoint to the boomtown nature of doubt,<br \/>\nthey want&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: You mean the underwater restaurant that you reach by submarine.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Absolutely, yeah.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: The mega-mall that boasts the only ski slope in the Middle East, for<br \/>\nexample.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Absolutely.\u00a0 Absolutely, yeah.\u00a0 I mean, there not many places in the<br \/>\nworld where you can go on sand buggies in the morning and go skiing in the afternoon.\u00a0 And<br \/>\nyou can do that in Dubai.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Right.\u00a0 Should Vegas be worried?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: I think that other vacation areas in that region should be worried because<br \/>\nDubai, after all, has attracted more tourists than India\u2014a city state of 1.5 million people<br \/>\nattracting more tourists than India.<\/p>\n<p>Now, Vegas need not be worried and here&#8217;s why.\u00a0 There has been some talk about putting<br \/>\ncasinos in Dubai.\u00a0 But that was seen as going too far in terms of, after all, this is still an<br \/>\nIslamic country.\u00a0 Despite the fact that there are bars, there is an underworld of prostitutes&#8211;<br \/>\ncasinos was seen as going too far.<\/p>\n<p>Because the government could potentially say, &#8220;Well, we have nothing to do with the bars.<br \/>\nWe have nothing to do with the underworld.&#8221;\u00a0 But if casinos were built, everyone would<br \/>\nunderstand that the government was sanctioning this.\u00a0 And this is something that they were<br \/>\nunable to do.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: How would you characterize the type of Islam that is practiced in the<br \/>\nEmirates?\u00a0 Is it lenient of other cultures and other faiths?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: It is very much a tolerant religion and I think a tolerant form of Islam.<br \/>\nAnd I think has to do with the fact that, in so many of the key cities of the United Arab<br \/>\nEmirates have been port cities for so long.\u00a0 And as a result, they have interacted with people<br \/>\nfrom all over the world.<\/p>\n<p>And port cities are, by their very nature, cosmopolitan, a little bit more socially and culturally<br \/>\nopen.\u00a0 And so, take for example today in United Arab Emirates.\u00a0 You can go to a church.\u00a0 You<br \/>\ncan go to a Hindu temple.<br \/>\nDALJIT DHALIWAL: A synagogue?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: There are no synagogues that I know of, but there are also no restrictions<br \/>\non Israelis actually traveling to the United Arab Emirates, which is very significant given the<br \/>\nfact that there are restrictions on Israelis traveling just about anywhere else in the Middle<br \/>\nEast.\u00a0 You are in an environment in which, even the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammad Bin<br \/>\nRashid, when I interviewed him, a few months ago, he said to me, &#8220;You know, I don&#8217;t why<br \/>\npeople are talking so much about Shia and Sunni.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>So, he was talking about the divisions that are seemingly growing in the Muslim world,<br \/>\nbetween the Shia and the Sunni aspect.\u00a0 And he said, &#8220;You know, for me, I don&#8217;t care if<br \/>\nyou&#8217;re a Shia.\u00a0 I don&#8217;t care if you&#8217;re a Sunni.\u00a0 If you work hard, you don&#8217;t bother your<br \/>\nneighbor, than you have a place in Dubai.&#8221;\u00a0 And in many ways, you know, it was a very<br \/>\nsimple statement, but it encapsulated so much of the Dubai attitude to religion and the<br \/>\nUnited Arab Emirates\u2019 attitude to religion which seems to be a live and let live one.\u00a0 I&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: And that applies to women as well?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: And now, the interesting thing about women is that women in the United<br \/>\nArab Emirates tend to cover and they tend to cover and veil.\u00a0 And this is something that is<br \/>\npart of their culture, more so than something than the government forces them to do.\u00a0 In<br \/>\nfact, there are no government mandates\u00a0 of veiling.<\/p>\n<p>But what United Arab Emirates has done a very good job of is educating women, and in<br \/>\nparticular, putting them in significant positions of power within the government.\u00a0 The Minister<br \/>\nof Economy and National Planning, which is not an insignificant post in the United Arab<br \/>\nEmirates, is a woman, Sheikha Lubna Al Qasimi.\u00a0 And she&#8217;s part of the ruling elite of, in fact,<br \/>\nof Ras Al Khaimah.<\/p>\n<p>And she&#8217;s the Minister of Economy and National Planning.\u00a0 And you find women in all sorts of<br \/>\nimportant positions in the government.\u00a0 Now, as with any society in the Gulf, there are<br \/>\nnotions of patriarchy that keep women down.\u00a0 There are cultural norms that prevent women<br \/>\nfrom progressing.\u00a0 But you don&#8217;t find the government trying to keep women down.\u00a0 It&#8217;s more<br \/>\nsociety and culture.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: So, they have property rights?<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: They have property rights.\u00a0 There are some very prominent business<br \/>\nwomen.\u00a0 You have women winning all sorts of government awards.\u00a0 When you go to<br \/>\ngovernment offices, you see women, in the same room as men.<\/p>\n<p>You don&#8217;t have any sort of separation between men and women.\u00a0 Women are driving.<br \/>\nWomen are doing the sort of things that you would expect women to be doing in Egypt or<br \/>\nJordan or some of the older civilization states.<\/p>\n<p>So, in many ways, for women in United Arab Emirates, the government has done a significant<br \/>\namount to push them forward, to offer them opportunities in education, offer them<br \/>\nopportunities in professional lives.\u00a0 If they are being held back, it&#8217;s because of patriarchal<br \/>\nnorms of the society or of the culture.<\/p>\n<p>DALJIT DHALIWAL: Afshin Molavi, thank you very much for joining us on Wide Angle.<\/p>\n<p>AFSHIN MOLAVI: Thank you.\u00a0 It was a pleasure.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Afshin Molavi, former Dubai-based correspondent for Reuters and fellow at the New America Foundation discusses the United Arab Emirates&#8217; global significance with anchor Daljit Dhaliwal. DALJIT DHALIWAL: Afshin Molavi, welcome to Wide Angle. AFSHIN MOLAVI: Thank you, Daljit.\u00a0 It&#8217;s a pleasure to be with you. DALJIT DHALIWAL: So, what did you make of the film? [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,31],"tags":[2656,2294],"class_list":["post-1800","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-interactives-extras","category-interviews","tag-afshin-molavi","tag-ras-al-khaimah"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Sand Castle ~ Interview with Afshin Molavi | Wide Angle | PBS<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/wnet\/wideangle\/interactives-extras\/the-sand-castle-interview-with-afshin-molavi\/1800\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Sand Castle ~ Interview with Afshin Molavi | Wide Angle | PBS\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Afshin Molavi, former Dubai-based correspondent for Reuters and fellow at the New America Foundation discusses the United Arab Emirates&#8217; global significance with anchor Daljit Dhaliwal. DALJIT DHALIWAL: Afshin Molavi, welcome to Wide Angle. AFSHIN MOLAVI: Thank you, Daljit.\u00a0 It&#8217;s a pleasure to be with you. DALJIT DHALIWAL: So, what did you make of the film? 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