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March 21, 2008
Since the conflict in Iraq began in 2003, there have been battles over numbers. These disagreements range not only over how much money the was has cost and may eventually cost but over casualty numbers for coalition members and Iraqis. Counting the Iraqi citizens who were killed, injured or even displaced by the conflict faces some logistical challenges due to the lack of standardized reporting entities on the ground. But there is also and ongoing debate over just how the Department of Defense enumerates those injured in the conflict. Critics contend that many in-theater deaths and injuries go uncounted in the official totals ruled accidents.
Of course, numbers are not just numbers in the coverage of a controversial war. As the NEW YORK TIMES public editor noted in the wake of a controversy over contradictory casualty figures reported by his own paper, the reality in Iraq depends on who's counting. And the numbers are used to support or criticize administration initiatives like the recent troop surge.
A media battle erupted in 2008 between the authors of a study in the British medical journal, THE LANCET, and THE NATIONAL JOURNAL. The LANCET STUDY contends that some 600,000 post-invasion Iraqi deaths are due to violence. The NATIONAL JOURNAL labeled the study "Data Bomb," questioning both the methodology and the Iraqi researchers who performed the data collection. One of the study's commissioners, argued back in EDITOR AND PUBLISHER, that the JOURNAL's evaluation was "a hatchet job." Read the study and the articles:
- "Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: A cross-sectional cluster sample survey." Gilbert Burnham, Riyadh Lafta, Shannon Doocy, Les Roberts, THE LANCET, October 11, 2006. (PDF)
- "Data Bomb," THE NATIONAL JOURNAL, Neil Munro and Carl M. Cannon, January 4, 2008
- "Counting Iraqi casualties -- and a Media Controversy," John Tirman, EDITOR AND PUBLISHER, February 14, 2008.
Additional debates over statistics involve other medical and international research groups, official Department of Defense numbers and the British-based Web site, Iraq Body Count. The numbers of Iraqi dead ranges from over 80,000 to over 600,00 among these groups. Review the methodology and results of additional sources:
New England Journal of Medicine Iraqi Family Health Survey Study Group
Results: 151,000 civilians deaths between March 2003 and June 2006
Methods: The IFHS is a nationally representative survey of 9345 households that collected information on deaths in the household since June 2001. We used multiple methods for estimating the level of underreporting and compared reported rates of death with those from other sources.
John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Results: 654,965 additional civilian deaths between March 2003 and July 2006
Methods: The estimates were derived from a nationwide household survey of 1,849 households throughout Iraq conducted between May and July 2006.
Iraq Body Count Project
Results: 81,874-89,353 civilian deaths (as of February 1, 2008)
Methods: IBC's documentary evidence is drawn from crosschecked media reports of violent events leading to the death of civilians, or of bodies being found, and is supplemented by the careful review and integration of hospital, morgue, NGO and official figures.
Opinion Research Business This British polling agency which has been tracking public opinion in Iraq since September 2005.
Results: 733,158-1,220,580 civilian deaths between March 2003 and September 2007
Methods: In conjunction with their Iraqi fieldwork agency a representative sample of 1,499 adults aged 18+ answered the following question: Q: How many members of your household, if any, have died as a result of the conflict in Iraq since 2003 (ie as a result of violence rather than a natural death such as old age)? Please note that I mean those who were actually living under your roof.
None 78%
One 16%
Two 5%
Three 1%
Four or more 0.002%
"Given that from the 2005 census there are a total of 4,050,597 households this data suggests a total of 1,220,580 deaths since the invasion in 2003. Calculating the affect from the margin of error we believe that the range is a minimum of 733,158 to a maximum of 1,446,063."
The Brookings Institute Iraq Index
Results: 103,567 (May 2003 through February 2008)
Methods: "Information for May 2003-December 2005 is based upon data from Iraq Body Count. The data for war-related fatalities was calculated at 1.75 times our IBC-based numbers, reflecting the fact that estimates for civilian casualties from the Iraqi Ministry of the Interior were 75 percent higher than those of our Iraq Body Count-based estimate over the aggregate May 2003 – December 2005 period. During this time, we separately studied the crime rate in Iraq, and on that basis estimated 23,000 murders throughout the country. In order to add these back in to our estimate, we used estimated monthly murder rates for
Baghdad as a guide in proportionally allocating these 23,000 additional fatalities."
"Our estimates from January-December 2006 are based upon the numbers published in the UN Assistance
Mission for Iraq, “Human Rights Report: 1 May–30 June, 2006” and subsequent reports. This data combines the Iraq Ministry of Health's tally of deaths counted at hospitals with the Baghdad Medico-Legal Institute's tally of deaths counted at morgues."
"Figures for January-August are approximations based on a graph presented by Gen. David Petraeus during
Congressional testimony given on September 10-11, 2007 and reprinted in the U.S. Department of State's “Iraq Weekly Status Report” dated September 12, 2007. Updates for subsequent months have been provided by the U.S. Department of Defense."
Below you'll also find sites which monitor coalition force casualties and provide biographical information as well as recent anniversary round-ups of war-related statistics.
Published on March 21, 2008.
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