Day 3
Nope. No inspiration. Me, Kathy and Mike discuss the
problem as soon as we get to the workshop. Mike is convinced
that the up-scaling ought to work, and sets about mathematically
justifying why it should. I’m just convinced that
we don’t have anything better to throw at the
problem. Kathy is busy being practical – laying
out sheets of paper to graphically draw up the angles
measured at the crater and work out its diameter. As
we thought, the two measurements are quite different,
one is 900 m and one is 1500 m. An average of 1200 m
seems fine, but an error range of +/- 300 m looks pretty
disappointing. For me and Kathy it’s OK –
the crater wasn’t perfectly round so it won’t
have a single diameter value anyway. I suspect Kate
thinks we’re hedging our bets to hide sloppy field
measurements, but Kathy stresses that it is just the
way that scientists normally deal with natural variability
and uncertainty. Kate nods, but the eyes say ‘sloppy,
sloppy, sloppy…’.
Mike has convinced us that the linear plot of impact
energy against crater size for the small measurements
is worth extrapolating up to the size of our Meteor
Crater. There’s loads of discussion about whether
this might be a minimum estimate, given the explosive
nature of the high velocity impacts. When Kate puts
us on the spot, we go for a range. Now this is hedging
our bets. The magical envelope reveals that Kathy’s
spot on with diameter measurement – 1200 m. Amazingly
– and I still can’t quite work out why –
our estimate of the impact body being between 30 m and
100 m wide is also spot on; the scientific consensus
says 50 m. It shouldn’t have worked, but it did.
Exhilarated and drained, we find comfort in some beers
and wait for night to fall.
Our bit is done, but the fun is just starting for Jonathan
and Ellen. The telescope is working brilliantly, and
we all can’t help but get involved as we get deeper
into the night doing repeated measurements of the diameter
of little Archimedes crater on the Moon. Under Ellen’s
flickering lights, the effort pays off. Eventually,
reluctantly, we pack up and head back - tired and happy.
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