Clip: Will abortion rights be a factor in midterm elections?

Woodruff : All right. We are going to turn now to something else that has been on the minds of people sense, what, a little over a week ago. We had that leaked for the Supreme Court, the fallout from that draft opinion that was leaked has only -- the reaction to that has only intensified this week. And abortion is now shaping up to be a top issue for midterm candidates across both parties.

On Wednesday, senators voted on the Women’s Health Protection Act, a bill that would legally protect abortion rights. The Democrat backed bill failed. Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a Democrat, joined all Senate Republicans in blocking the bill.

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Sen. Benn Sasse (R-NE) : This bill today is ugly; winner takes all politics. It is full of aggressive pro-abortion provisions. Where is the tolerance? Where is the compassion? Where is the humanity?

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Woodruff : Democrats, including Senator Patty Murray of Washington state, expressed outrage.

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Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) : What we saw today is Republicans telling Americans all over this country, and women in particular, that their voice is more important than yours, that what they believe in is more important than your choice about your own body and your own family and your own future.

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Woodruff : Manu Raju, I think everybody acknowledges this vote was not going to ultimately prevail. They needed 60 votes. But what happened here?

Raju : Yeah, it was an interesting several days, a decision by the Democratic leaders not to try to get a bill to the floor that would have at least two Republican votes. There was no chance that this bill would pass.

This was a messaging vote, they decided -- the Democrats wanted to essentially show that they were fighting to try to preserve abortion rights and Republicans are opposing it. There was no chance of this getting the 60 votes, they need to overcome a filibuster. That was really the only way to advance the bill, or presumably, they could change the rules of the Senate, pass it along straight party lines, but you need a simple majority of votes to change the rules of the Senate, and they simply don’t have that because of the opposition from Joe Manchin, Kyrsten Sinema, and as well as several others who are concerned about going that approach.

But the decision by Chuck Schumer was to put a bill on the floor, the Women’s Health Protection Act, that did not have the support of those two Republican moderate senators, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, two senators who support abortion rights, who believe that this bill goes too far. Instead, they decided to go with this other bill instead.

The reason why Democrats did that is for messaging purposes. They wanted to make it clear that Republicans were unanimous against them in trying to preserve abortion rights and trying to say to overturn the Supreme Court's decision, assuming that is what becomes law here.

The problem with the message became when Joe Manchin, the one Democrat who does oppose abortion rights, came out in opposition to this plan. He said he would have supported that narrower approach that Collins and Murkowski backed. But Chuck Schumer did not want to go that route, liberals in his caucus did not want to go that route.

And as a result, it was 49-51, that bill failed, and it leaves, Judy, Democrats with no clear path to dealing with this on a federal level, really their only hope is to convince voters to send more Democrats to the Senate, for them to hold the House, presumably change the Senate rules next year by having enough votes, and then enacting legislation to preserve abortion rights, really heavy lift in this difficult midterm environment, but that’s really the only bet they are left with to deal with this on a federal level.

Woodruff : And, Susan, as somebody who’s covered this town for a little while, is -- are these messaging votes -- do they tend to be effective? Do they accomplish what the members want when they take them?

Page : Big debate about that, because on the one hand, does it show to your base you are willing to stand up for abortion rights or does it show weakness?

Democrats are supposed to be in control of the government. They control the Senate, and the House, and the White House, and yet, they can’t keep their own members in line. So, there was some debate in the caucus about whether this was the right thing to do, but they had nothing else they could do. It was really -- it was really their only play.

And, you know, if the firestorm we’ve seen in the past week, just wait until the real decision comes down sometime this summer, we expect, because once a decision comes down, if it strikes down Roe v. Wade as we expect, there are 13 states that have trigger laws that instantly go into effect restricting abortion. There are another nine states that have laws that were on the books when Roe v. Wade was decided in 1973 that have never been rescinded. Those could also go into force instantaneously.

Woodruff : So-called snapback.

Page : Yes, instantaneously, these pre-Roe laws could be enforced again. So, the effect of a Supreme Court decision is not going to take any time to unfold.

Woodruff : And, Seung Min, at the White House, they’re watching all this in a way helpless to do anything? I mean, what messaging can they -- can they offer at this point?

Kim : So, in terms of substance, they have told us they are looking into potential executive actions that kind of nibble around the edges, if you will. So, they talked about perhaps seeing if you can use Medicaid dollars to assist woman who may have to travel to another state to get an abortion if an abortion is outlawed in the state where she lives. But a lot of -- some of those actions, and some of the other actions they’re considering, they don’t know if that’s legal yet. So, they were looking towards this vote that failed on Wednesday.

And their next step, the messaging from the president himself on down is, like Susan said, you have to elect Democrats, whether it’s to the Senate, to the House, especially in governors and state legislators, which are going to take such prominent roles in the abortion debate, you know, if and when Roe is overturned.

So, that’s really the focus of the Democratic Party right now, and it just illustrates just kind of how helpless they are to do actual action in the aftermath of this decision.

Woodruff : And I think Democrats are now acknowledging that they have not done as good a job as Republicans in translating the public’s -- whatever public support there is for abortion rights into victories in these congressional -- these key congressional races and other races.

Kim : Right, right, right. I mean, Republicans I’ve talked to when -- I especially talk to them about the impact of abortion and abortion rights in congressional races this year. And, you know, they say that at the end of the day, it’s going to be the economy and inflation and other related issues that are really going to matter for voters this November.

Woodruff : Yeah.

Kim : And I think President Biden even flicked at that this week when giving a speech on inflation. He called combating inflation his top domestic priority. It’s not voting rights, it’s not abortion. It’s going to be on inflation.

So, how much this mobilizes voters this fall and has an impact I think is a really interesting question.

Page : You know, I think one question is whether that dynamic of the abortion debate now flips because the energy has been with the antiabortion forces because they were working toward something, and the people who support abortion rights thought -- saw Roe v. Wade as something they could count on. They didn’t need to worry too much even as some restrictions were enacted.

Does that change now as abortions actually are banned in some states? Does that make abortion -- does it make people who support abortion rights a single issue voter on this front?

Woodruff : Are you going to see that energy go in that direction?

Now, well, as we saw both parties tried to make the debate over abortion a rallying cry and an effort to bring pro-choice and pro-life voters to the polls, one person has been relatively silent on this, that’s former President Trump.

In midterm primaries, this week Mr. Trump saw his endorsed candidate win. Alex Mooney of West Virginia and lose Charles Herbster in the Nebraska gubernatorial race. Those races are viewed as a referendum on the former president’s backing.

Susan, I’m going to come to you here on this. I mean, we are watching every one of these candidates that former President Trump has endorsed.

Page : Yeah. You know, he could. He has a lot of influence in the Republican Party. There’s no question about that. He’s clearly the face of the Republican Party, very few Republicans are willing to challenge him.

But there is a bit of a sense that, Republicans even those who have been on Trump side are willing to endorse other candidates in some of these primary races.

We saw Mike Pence for instance endorsed Governor Kemp in Georgia. Trump is very much in favor of Kemp’s challenger because of Kemp’s action in upholding the 2020 election.

So, we -- I wonder if there is a sense that, to -- I don’t want to overstate it, but some degree, are there those in the Republican Party who want to get a little past the moment when Trump could call all the shots?

Woodruff : And, Manu Raju, on the Hill, there has to be conversation among Republicans and I’m sure they’re sharing all of this with you, as they watch these Trump endorsements play out?

Raju : Yeah, no question about it. Well, this is really just a key month for Trump. Yeah, he did get J.D. Vance through, helped him. He -- there is no question he played a key role in getting him through the Ohio Senate Republican primary. He had a split decision this past Tuesday, as you mentioned, in the West Virginia House race. He did help Alex Mooney beat David McKinley, in a Republican-on-Republican primary.

It was all about the support for the infrastructure law that McKinley backed Mooney opposed. Trump tried to get Republicans to block -- essentially block that so Biden would not have an accomplishment. He was unsuccessful in the Nebraska gubernatorial race, his preferred candidate failed.

But what will happen come Tuesday in the Pennsylvania Senate Republican primary? That is the big question going forward.

Trump, of course, supported the celebrity Dr. Mehmet Oz. There’s questions about whether Oz can pull it off. He is in a tight three-way race there.

There is the North Carolina Republican Senate primary. He has backed Ted Budd, a congressman there, who is going up against Pat McCrory, the former governor, who’s in a tight race there as well.

And Susan alluded to, there is a question about what will happen in Georgia gubernatorial race. David Perdue is struggling in the polls against Brian Kemp.

And in talking to a number of Republicans, Judy, about David Perdue, a former senator, someone who had they -- who they had served with for some time, they don’t recognize the man on the campaign trail espousing the same baseless conspiracy theories and lies that Donald Trump did that the 2020 election was stolen, that there was widespread fraud that caused him the election here.

But he had to do that to win Donald Trump’s support. So, it will a key several weeks to test the sway of Donald Trump, Judy.

Woodruff : Yeah, we remember he was being loyal to the president when he was in the Senate.

And, just quickly, finally, to you, Seung Min, the White House has to be watching all this with some interest?

Kim : Very much so. And, actually, what has been interesting to me is how much they tried to use that MAGA messaging over the last several weeks, especially at this week, they rolled out the "Ultra MAGA" to label the congressional Republican policies, and actually policies not just as it relates to, for example, the economy and taxation, but also as it relates to abortion. It’s kind of like a catch all label that they’re using now.

And you are going to continue to see that from the White House. They feel this is an effective message. They have polling that indicates that this is something that has a negative connotation with a broader voter populace, but at the same time, you know, President Trump likes the Ultra MAGA message, so they are co-opting it, particularly when Biden calls Trump the great MAGA king. The former president likes that very much.

Woodruff : And just in a couple of seconds, Susan, we are only beginning to watch how the rest of this midterm year plays out.

Page : Oh, and it’s going to be important because there is every possibility Democrats will lose the House, and with that it will be a whole new game here in Washington.

Woodruff : Yeah. A lot of conversation already about that here in Washington.

Well, with that wonderful discussion, we thank all three of you, to Manu, to Seung Min, and to Susan for joining us and for sharing your excellent reporting.