Full Episode: Washington Week with the Atlantic full episode, 12/8/23

Jeffrey Goldberg: Ukraine is battling it out against Russia on the Eastern Front, and Israel is hunting Hamas and Gaza. All of this leaves President Biden very, very busy. But many in Congress have other priorities.

Joe Biden, U.S. President: Extreme Republicans are playing chicken with our national security. Holding Ukraine's funding hostage are extreme partisan border policies.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC): This is about securing our border so we can then help our allies.

Jeffrey Goldberg: How President Biden navigates this crisis could help determine the future of democracy around the globe, and here at home come November, next.

Good evening and welcome to Washington Week.

Despite President Biden's urgent call for Congress to support Ukraine and Israel, Democrats and Republicans are fighting over border security. This comes as the GOP rift over Ukraine widens and also as a growing number of liberal Democrats demand new conditions on aid to Israel.

We're going to talk about the future of these wars and the ways in which foreign policy gets made in the Washington sausage factory.

Joining me tonight are my colleague, Anne Applebaum, a staff writer at The Atlantic, Leigh Ann Caldwell, a co-author of The Washington Post's Early 202 newsletter and a Washington Post live anchor, Vivian Salama is a national security reporter for The Wall Street Journal, and Chuck Todd is NBC's chief political analyst.

Welcome all. Let's go right at -- this is a very complicated subject. Anne, let's start on Ukraine. Give us the status of the war effort right now, the Ukrainian war effort. Are they winning? Are they not winning? And throw into your short but cogent answer the question of are they achieving what the United States wants them to achieve right now?

Anne Applebaum, Staff Writer, The Atlantic: So, let me start in a slightly different place when - Putin has made three big gambles since he started the war. The first gamble, the first risk he took was the idea that he could invade Kyiv in three days and take over the country quickly. That failed. His second gamble was, well, okay, I didn't win it quickly, but the west will never come to Ukraine's aid, so maybe it won't take three days, it will take six weeks. That also failed. We're now in the third phase, and his guess now is -- his gamble now is this is a war of attrition. I'm going to drag it out as long as possible, and I'm going to win because Ukraine's allies, okay, they brought them weapons and aid in the beginning, are going to get tired of the war, split up, fight with each other, and that will be the end.

Jeffrey Goldberg: But how are the Ukrainians doing?

Anne Applebaum: And so -- but within that context, they've held the line. They haven't lost territory. They haven't gained territory. And what's happening now is that Putin has decided that he's fighting the war in order to make us tired. So, in other words, when the Ukrainians went on their counteroffensive last summer, he was willing to do almost anything to prevent them from achieving anything that would look like a victory, including losing thousands of men and sacrificing tons of equipment.

So, it's not as if the Ukrainians are losing. They haven't lost ground, but they haven't moved forward, and that's in Putin's interest.

Jeffrey Goldberg: But the Biden administration and the national security complex in the United States not overwhelmingly happy with the course of the war in recent weeks, months.

Anne Applebaum: No. I think expectations were very high that the Ukrainians could achieve something on the battlefield that would force the Russians to reconsider and move. Remember, this is a war that's over when the Russians leave, when they stop fighting. So, we don't need to conquer Moscow, we don't need Putin to fall, we just need them to go home.

And there was a hope that, over the summer, they would make some progress that would lead us in that direction, and that didn't happen. And that means that now we really are looking at a long war. And it's what you're seeing in Washington and also in Europe is this readjustment to the idea that it's a long war and that's why you're having trouble in Congress.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right. Vivian, I want to ask you the same general question about the other war, Israel and Hamas. Is America's ally, Israel, achieving its goals against Hamas, and are they achieving these goals in a way that is making the United States, the Biden administration right now, happy, miserable, somewhere in between?

Vivian Salama, Reporter, The Wall Street Journal: Probably somewhere in between. But as far as Israel's goals, you know, their one goal at this point -- well, they have two goals, really. They really want to see the hostages released, the remaining hostages released, and they want to defeat Hamas.

Now, the question becomes, how do you defeat Hamas? What does that even look like? And no one really has an exact answer because they say, okay, we have taken out a number of the top militant leaders. They have managed to kind of weed them out of the north, but many of them have moved south. And so we've seen in recent days that the operation has moved southward.

Now, I was with Secretary of State Antony Blinken last week where we were in Israel. We were literally driving to the airport in Tel Aviv when the pause that had been initiated to have hostages released ended.

And since then the U.S. has asserted that what it wants to see is for Israel -- it understands that Israel needs to go after those Hamas leaders that have moved southward, but it has to do so in a way that shows that it is using restraint and distinguishing between civilians and Hamas militants, that it has to designate safe zones. They're calling it safe neighborhoods versus just bombing campaigns that really do not distinguish.

And Antony Blinken, while we were still in Israel, I had asked him this question, and he said intent matters but so do actions.

And so just yesterday, on Thursday, I had the opportunity to question him again now several days into this offensive in the south. And I asked him, I said, the World Health Organization, the United Nations, a number of different organizations say that the campaign has continued very intensely in places like Khan Younis and near the Rafah crossing in the south, and a number of civilians, many civilians, still dying. And he said, like I said, intent matters, but so do actions. And we see a gap between that intent and what the Israelis are doing.

And so right now, there is tension growing between their determination to defeat Hamas and the way they're doing it that has taken out so many civilian lives.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right. I want you all to listen to something that Senator Bernie Sanders said related to this. And I want to ask you, Chuck, about this. Let's play that clip.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT): Bottom line is, yes, Israel has a right to defend itself against Hamas terrorism, but the type of military strategy they're using now is inhumane. It's in violation of international law. We should not give a blank check to Netanyahu to continue that policy.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right. So, Chuck, we see real anxiety in wings of the Democratic Party, including any number of Democratic senators, about unconditional aid to Israel. Is this going to become more and more of a problem for Israel and for the Biden administration, especially President Biden, who is emotionally, viscerally committed to the defeat of Hamas?

Chuck Todd, Chief Political Analyst, NBC News: I think eventually, I don't think yet. Meaning when I say, eventually --

Jeffrey Goldberg: When is eventually?

Chuck Todd: Well, three months from now, six months from now, if we're still in a similar place, I think this becomes, and then you might have.

Look, there is a growing number of Democrats talking about putting some sort of constraint on aid to Israel. And, oh, by the way, there's not an insignificant number of House Republicans who are also open to this, by the way. It's sort of an interesting coalition, but it's not nearly -- it's not there yet. I mean, I think in that sense, I think he's in the minority.

I mean, contrast Bernie Sanders with John Fetterman, who is essentially the senator from Pennsylvania. Very much Sanders and him see almost eye to eye on all sorts of domestic economic issues. Fetterman has been very pro-Israel in this whole thing. He's been, by the way, also wants to get the deal done. He's also been the one, hey, let's put some -- people want the border shut down, if that's what it takes to get it, be open minded.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Fetterman has become one of the most interesting members of the Senate.

Chuck Todd: People forget Being a populist doesn't always mean you're a progressive. He's a progressive populist. But sometimes when you're a populist, it doesn't always --

Jeffrey Goldberg: Well, his focus, by the way, not to go down this rabbit hole, but his focus very much is on the hostages. And he's very early on was extremely offended by the idea of kidnapping children and so on. That level has maintained. It has that level of outrage that was felt across Washington.

Chuck Todd: He's kept it, yes.

Jeffrey Goldberg: He's kept it and it hasn't.

Leigh Ann, talk about -- well, I mean, it's interesting. There's almost a flipside here. You have certain Democrats who are questioning aid to Israel. You have certain Republicans, quite a number of Republicans, who are questioning aid to Ukraine. How powerful is the Republican anti-Ukraine aid faction? I'm not trying to compare these two, but there are interesting foreign policy dynamics inside both parties right now.

Leigh Ann Caldwell, Co-Author, The Washington Post's Early 202: Yes, the anti-Ukraine faction in the Republican Party is much stronger than where the Democrats are asking for conditions to Israel at this point. There was a test vote in the Senate this week where we got a clear delineation of where people stand. You had Bernie Sanders was the only person who voted against aid or against this Ukraine-Israel package because he wanted conditions placed on it. No other Democrats did yet, even though Democrats have concerns.

Every single Republican, however, they voted against it, not necessarily because they're all against aid to Ukraine, some of them are, but because of this issue of border security. And they are very much tying this issue of changing border policy, stopping the magnet, they say, of migrants wanting to come to the border if the president really wants this aid to Ukraine. And this is where this weird stalemate is on these two completely different issues.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right. Leigh Ann, I want to come back to you in a minute to have you explain to me how Washington works vis-a-vis the border and everything.

Chuck Todd: They're not working in December, right?

Jeffrey Goldberg: Well, no. I mean, when Washington works, I want you to explain how it works.

But hold on one second because I want to ask Anne just to jump in here and talk about the consequences of this stronger Republican opposition. I mean, you talk to people in Ukraine and across Eastern Europe all the time. What's the anxiety level right now about America essentially cutting off the supply line here?

Anne Applebaum: So it's very high and it's --

Jeffrey Goldberg: Higher than it's ever been since the war.

Anne Applebaum: Higher than it's been since the war began.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Started, okay.

Anne Applebaum: And that's because of what I said at the beginning, which is that Putin is treating this as a war he can win just by waiting. He can just keep throwing people. He can throw stuff.

Jeffrey Goldberg: The Taliban strategy.

Anne Applebaum: Yes, he can just keep going, and eventually we'll crack up, get bored, want to do the border, want to do Israel, want to do something else, and we'll give up. And people know that's his strategy. And the only way to counter his strategy is to keep saying, we're united, we're doing more, we're going to keep giving aid. And that's how we outlast him. And the fear is now that we won't.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Vivian, you study this all the time. Is he going to outlast the United States commitment to Ukraine?

Vivian Salama: Putin?

Jeffrey Goldberg: Yes.

Vivian Salama: He's the more patient than anyone in Washington. Let's put it that way.

Anne Applebaum: I will only say one thing, which is that when people begin to really look at this, and everybody said, okay, we're tired, enough of Ukraine, we want to think about something else, okay, what are the consequences of Ukraine losing are still the same as they were two years ago. So, the consequences are, Putin takes over the whole country, there are 10 million refugees, there are concentration camps all over Ukraine, there's a sudden huge, new challenge to NATO, the military commitment gets larger.

So, we're in a strange position where, okay, everyone is tired of it, they want to talk about the border, they want to do something else, but there is no off-ramp, there is no -- Putin doesn't want to negotiate. So, it's not like there's some alternative peace plan that we can have if only --

Chuck Todd: Biden is going to give Republicans everything they want.

Now, I don't know if --

Jeffrey Goldberg: On the border?

Chuck Todd: Yes, because --

Jeffrey Goldberg: Wait.

Chuck Todd: I will just tell you he is -- all of these things are true. I think Biden is the one -- he is not going to let border politics interfere with funding Ukraine.

Jeffrey Goldberg: But let's talk about --

Chuck Todd: I don't know if the Senate Democrats are on the same page as him.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Can you explain, could both of you explain how it came to pass that these border issues are so tied up in Ukraine?

Leigh Ann Caldwell: So, the -- because I'm glad you asked that question specifically, because I wanted to say that earlier, which is the reason is, is because Ukraine, getting back to your previous question to me, is so unpopular in the Republican base, that this is the only way that Republicans think that they will not be punished for passing Ukraine aid if there is strong border security attached to it. So, this is very political as well.

If they want Ukraine aid, then Republican voters, if it's all on its own and the border continues to be open, these Republicans think that they will be punished electorally or be challenged in primaries if they don't get something out of it.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Can I just add -- just as a parenthetical, Anne. It's so interesting and novel, in a way. You have the Ukrainian army every day destroying the Russian army to some degree, withering, decimating, diminishing the quality of the Russian army. They're using American weapons that are, of course, paid for by American taxpayer but also built and made in American factories, right? And no American troops are on the ground in Ukraine.

The traditional understanding of Republican politics is, oh, beating the Russian army a good thing not a bad thing. What happened?

Anne Applebaum: Remember there was this president who was called Donald Trump. Remember him?

Jeffrey Goldberg: No, I'm sorry, I'm not familiar with that name.

Anne Applebaum: No. I mean, I think -- I mean, I'm joking but not. I think that Trump's instinctive pro-Russian, but not really --

Jeffrey Goldberg: It infiltrated all the way down?

Anne Applebaum: It wasn't pro-Russian. It was -- well, there's two things going on. I think one is the -- you know, he sort of accepted this myth about Russia as some kind of white Christian nation upholding traditional values. And I think some of that filtered down. And then I think some of it is just, you know, if Biden wants it, we're against it. I mean, you know, you guys probably know that better than me, but it's a -- if there's a -- you know, if there's something that Biden really wants to do, then it's our job as Republicans to make sure he doesn't succeed.

Vivian Salama: There's also a bit of a misconception as far as a lot of these funds and how they kind of go. I think a lot of voters believe that it goes straight to Ukraine and they forget --

Anne Applebaum: We're just giving money to Zelenskyy.

Vivian Salama: Giving money to Zelenskyy.

And there is the added element of stimulating the defense industry base, but also replenishing U.S. stockpiles. Because a lot of our weapons then go to Ukraine and you want to replenish U.S. stockpiles with newer weapons, newer systems, give jobs, you know, get those jobs going.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Alabama.

Vivian Salama: Exactly. And so there is a benefit for the U.S. in terms of its industry, but, unfortunately, the way it is framed, a lot of people say, well, why should I be helping Ukraine when I can't even afford groceries and gas and, you know, help my family?

Chuck Todd: Look, this is what the public's on fire about, right, and that's especially the Republican base. But the other thing we got to remembe, the Republican base, in particular, is really on fire about the border. And so --

Jeffrey Goldberg: Ukraine, Israel, all this stuff --

Chuck Todd: You know, how many times do you hear this phrase from, you know, House Republicans have echoed what their own talk radio supporters have said.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Well, you heard Lindsey Graham.

Chuck Todd: Worry more about the border in this country rather than the border in Ukraine, right, some form of that. So, that's been a very successful.

But let me just say this about the Republican Party. Donald Trump has remade the party. It is now the 1930s Republican Party. And if you want to go back for -- I think this is an audience that knows their history, the 1930s Republican Party was very isolationist. This is a very isolationist party. I think the internationalist Republicans are no longer Republicans anymore. That's what's happened.

Leigh Ann Caldwell: And getting back to what Chuck said about the border, this is a priority of Republicans, there's a fear that has been created about the border. And I was talking to a Republican this week, a very senior Republican, who said, Republican voters are not afraid of Russia right now. There is not an immediate fear of Putin in their personal lives in our country. They are fearful of the border. And that's why that is one of their priorities.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right, right.

Chuck Todd: Most popular thing in our last poll at NBC News of things that they could be doing, putting more money and tightening the border. It was like a 75 percent net. It was the number one thing the public agreed on, Democrats and Republicans.

Vivian Salama: Even voters in the Northern states, which is so interesting to notice.

Jeffrey Goldberg: I was struck by Lindsey Graham, right?

Chuck Todd: But this is also what John Fetterman is saying, what he's saying. He's a man who represents a swing state. He can read a poll.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Yes. Now, this Lindsey Graham quote -- I mean, Lindsey Graham, the most muscular Republican internationalist --

Chuck Todd: He wants to stay in the United States.

Jeffrey Goldberg: He wants to stay in the Senate, right.

Let me just add one more complication to this very complicated foreign policy and national security mix, which is what's going on in Iran and -- I'm sorry, with Iran in Syria and Iraq. Jennifer Griffin, the Fox News defense reporter, just reported that there have been nine attacks on U.S. troops, U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria in the last 24 hours or so. That's 84 attacks since October 17th.

We're not talking about this, but we're in a -- we seem to be in a low-grade war right now with Iranian proxies across the Middle East. And the question is, what would turn this into a full-blown crisis for the Biden administration to add to the other crises?

Vivian Salama: Well, this is something that they are very concerned about. When you hear them talking about concerns over escalation or that this war can turn into a regional conflict. They are, in large part, talking about that. The U.S. has already scaled down its presence, its personnel in Iraq and slightly in Syria as well. We have seen the Houthis launching missiles, some of them directed at Israel. We know that for a fact now.

Jeffrey Goldberg: The Houthis, the leadership --

Vivian Salama: The Houthis, the rebels in Yemen, yes.

And so this has been a growing concern for the U.S. You know, just, again, when I was in the region last week with the secretary of state, you hear U.S. officials now saying that this is their growing concern.

Amazingly, and remember the U.S. has now shifted some of its military assets to the Eastern Mediterranean and to the region to bolster its presence, they thought that Hezbollah in Lebanon was going to be their major concern and the Houthis all the while are going wild with their missiles. Our presence in Iraq, our presence in Syria, all coming under fire. And so this is increasingly something that the U.S. is very concerned about.

Jeffrey Goldberg: So, this brings me to a very big question, which is, are we heading into a year in which foreign policy and national security determines the presidential election?

Chuck Todd: Until there's more American blood and treasure at stake, blood versus treasure on this one, I think it's -- I believe that between abortion, the border, and Donald Trump, that those three issues will trump any of these foreign policy issues.

That said, the thing that I'm most concerned about as a wild card, and at least the first six months of next year, is Taiwan. Because if you have the next election, and it's a very anti-Beijing new president of Taiwan --

Jeffrey Goldberg: The election is coming up next month.

Chuck Todd: It's coming in a month.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right.

Chuck Todd: Xi has been making all sorts of purging that's going on. Nobody is quite sure what he's up to. And we're pretty spread thin as the world's cop right now between Israel and Ukraine. And this -- so you introduce that into it, then I'm not going to sit here and say, oh, there's no way foreign policy trumps abortion trump. We have a third front, then all of a sudden things would change.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Vivian, do you worry more about the Houthis or the Taiwan issue? It's a completely unfair question. It just crossed my mind.

Vivian Salama: I think the Houthis are the short-term concern, and I think Taiwan and Indo-Pacific is the longer term.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Because they are attacking shipping in the --

Vivian Salama: Literally, like firing missiles at our assets and commercial assets, as we speak.

But Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific in general are something to watch, and definitely a concern by both political parties.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right. When is the last -- what do you think the last true foreign policy election?

Chuck Todd: As a general election?

Jeffrey Goldberg: As a general election?

Chuck Todd: Well, we were debating this. Look, the Iraq War vote mattered a lot in determining Barack Obama's ability to become president versus Hillary Clinton's ability never to become president, right? That vote of hers is why she never became president.

So, is that a foreign policy election or an issue? But I guess you'd have to go back to 80.

Vivian Salama: I mean, I became a Middle East specialist in the 2000s because I thought it would be something we'd be talking about forever. Now, I wish I studied Mandarin, so --

Jeffrey Goldberg: But the Middle East is back, and you'll be back for our all-Houthi panel next week, right?

Vivian Salama: I am an expert.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Yes, yes, you're definitely a Houthi expert.

So, my question then is, is the Biden administration, Anne, managing this chaos well, or do you feel that they're taking on water?

Anne Applebaum: So, I give them credit for avoiding the spread of conflict so far in both places. I mean, there's always time for things to get worse. I'm still angry at them for not helping Ukraine faster, for not getting weapons there faster and for not making it at least theoretically possible to end the war faster.

I mean, imagine what a different world we'd be living in now if the Ukrainians had achieved more victories over the summer, if we weren't at this moment where we're all starting to argue about whether it's worth it and how much time it's taking.

So, I give them credit for backing Ukraine. I give them credit for pulling together this huge international alliance, both of Europeans and Asian and other powers, but I'm sorry it didn't all happen faster. And I'm sorry that we're still not acting as if it's a genuinely crucial and critical war.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right. While you were talking, I was doing a little research, Anne mentioned this person named Trump before I hadn’t heard of. It turns out, major figure, and I want to play a short clip of something that this Donald Trump just said and I want to get your quick reactions to it.

Donald Trump, Former U.S. President:  He says, you're not going to be a dictator, are you? I said, no, no, no, other than day one.

Jeffrey Goldberg: We only have a few seconds left, but anybody shocked by that?

Leigh Ann Caldwell: No, this is something that he has been saying over repeatedly for the past several months. This one got a lot of attention. He said that he is going to retaliate against his political opponents. He said he's going to appoint people who don't tell him to say no. So, he has been very out in the open about this.

Chuck Todd: Look, it's this -- remember the fake news, what he did what when fake news hurt him, he has an ability to soften it up. But notice the issues he talked about when he said, well, only on day one. I'm going to drill, drill, drill, and I'm going to shut down the border. That is what his people want to hear, messaging-wise. So, it is one of those things.

I also would be careful if I were the Biden campaign to overreact right now.

Jeffrey Goldberg: We could talk about this all night, but we can't. We’ll have to come back for the Houthi special. But, unfortunately, we need to leave it there for now. And I want to thank our panelists for joining us and for sharing their reporting.

I'm Jeffrey Goldberg. Good night from Washington.