Clip: Will Trump go to war with Venezuela in 2026?

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right. In the few minutes we have left, let's talk about two issues that are going to -- are bubbling up right now and continue to bubble up as we move forward into 2026, Venezuela and Iran. Please explain Venezuela in this context. You have 30 seconds.

Thomas Friedman: Yes, exactly. Look --

Jeffrey Goldberg: Please explain what's going on.

Thomas Friedman: In a way, they're very similar countries, oil producers, failed states, basically government, but big populations and giant keystones in their region. Now, Venezuela has an illegitimate leader who stole an election, you know what I mean? And so I'm not against putting pressure on him. But, again, you want to do it with allies, okay? And you want to have a plan for the morning after.

Let's say Maduro leaves or is toppled or Venezuela really falls into civil war, talk about an immigration problem when, you know, some countries implode, other countries explode. Venezuela explodes, okay, ask its neighbors how many millions of refugees they're now dealing with.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Do you think Trump would actually go to war with Venezuela in 2026?

Thomas Friedman: I would rule out nothing, Jeff. I would rule out nothing. And, again, I have no sources, so I couldn't tell you.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right. On the Iran question, this was pretty remarkable. Iran right now is undergoing more convulsions. The people obviously of Iran do not like their government. We've seen that again and again. The government shows no hesitation to actually shoot down peaceful demonstrators in the street. This is what Trump just wrote, you know, he -- on Truth Social, if Iran shots, that's the way he spelled it, shots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President Donald J. Trump. That is the clearest -- I've never seen a president threaten Iran that directly. Is there something behind that or, again, we don't know?

Thomas Friedman: Beats me.

Jeffrey Goldberg: What are the consequences of saying something like that?

Thomas Friedman: Well, there are two kind of consequences. One is obviously Iranians would see it and more people would go out in the streets and then say, please come America, where are you? So, Trump will look foolish. The other thing, you have to be very careful. This is the kind of thing the Iranian regime would do to delegitimize the protesters. You're acting for Trump. You're acting for the foreigner, for the America. That actually matters inside Iran.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right.

Thomas Friedman: So, these are very delicate situations. You know, Obama got criticized for not doing enough. Trump can get, you know, himself in trouble for offering to do too much. At the end of the day, neither will matter, Jeff. What will matter is what the Iranian people do on the streets and how the regime responds.

Jeffrey Goldberg: In the few seconds we have left, based on your knowledge of Iran, is this situation different than previous situations of unrest in the streets?

Thomas Friedman: It feels different because the regime is weaker after the 12-day war loss to Israel. And you have a combination of things now, you've got the money, the economy that's collapsing, but Mother Nature just showed up. And Iran is now one of the most water-starved countries in the world, and Mother Nature's going to kill them all long before they kill each other.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Well on that happy note, we'll do this again. We'll try to end on a hopeful --

Thomas Friedman: Unless she doesn't.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Unless she doesn't, unless she doesn't, to be sure. Only time will tell.

Thomas Friedman: Exactly.

Jeffrey Goldberg: We're going to have to leave it there. I want to thank Tom for joining me and thank you at home for watching us.