Clip: Trump’s shrinking base

Jeffrey Goldberg: I want to talk through something that's a little bit unlucky for Donald Trump. Yvonne, you've spent a lot of time crisscrossing Arizona and other states talking to Trump supporters. And what you've heard has really surprised you.

Let me read this one observation you made in The Atlantic early this week. Midterm elections are typically rough for an incumbent president's party, but this year threatens to be brutal. Trump's approval is lower right now than it was at this point ahead of the 2018 midterm elections.

What are you -- what have you been hearing in the last couple of weeks, last few weeks from MAGA voters?

Yvonne Wingett Sanchez: Yes. I mean, it is the sacrifices that they are having to make within their own homes and within their own households to be able to afford this environment. And this is very much -- to a lot of people, this feels like COVID era prices. It feels like -- like, psychologically, they feel like they are in a really bad economic spot. They're pre-buying electronics. They are cutting back on, like I said, like the family vacations. Like they feel like they are having to make sacrifices for someone that they didn't want to.

Jeffrey Goldberg: But when you say they, you mean specifically people who had voted for Donald Trump?

Yvonne Wingett Sanchez: Voted for Trump, yes.

Jeffrey Goldberg: What are they saying about him specifically when you're asking that, like that he hasn't kept his promises? What are they --

Yvonne Wingett Sanchez: He hasn't kept his promises. They don't trust him because he promised no new wars. They are poorer today than they were before he took office. Their wages have not kept up with growth or with inflation. They're paying more at the pump, obviously, especially working class rural voters who pay for diesel every day, $6 a gallon in Arizona.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Look, Arizona's red, obviously, but do you think that the Democrats have any chance at all in the midterms in a state like Arizona?

Yvonne Wingett Sanchez: I do. There are two toss-up House seats, one held by representative David Schweikert, Scottsdale-based, wealthy voters, there are livid. They are very tuned in. This is a lot of independent voters, centrist Republicans who have just had it.

Down south in the Tucson-based Congressional district held by Representative Juan Ciscomani, a Republican that has narrowly flipped back and forth over the last several cycles, and that is a seat that Democrats think that they can flip. They can pick up two seats in Arizona easily, possibly a third.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right. Are the Democrats, Annie, are they maybe getting a little bit ahead of themselves in Washington? I mean, we're in this -- yes. No, we're in a little bit of a hubris rollercoaster on the part of both parties where they both think that they're doing better sometimes than they actually are.

Annie Linskey: You know, I have spent quite a lot of time, running into Democrats this week. It's been a busy week in Washington. And I have run into quite a lot of overjoyed, very excited Democrats.

The words that I heard recently that have been ringing in my head was from one Democrat who said, they'll take the House back and there will be a subpoena cannon focused at the White House. So, they are getting ready for investigations. I know.

Jeffrey Goldberg: I've been to those basketball games with the (INAUDIBLE). Those are exciting, yes. I think a T-shirt's coming up, and all of a sudden a T-shirt you're in court. We'll see.

I mean, it's a long time between now and November, but I do think that the prices get fixed in people's minds and they don't loosen up mentally for a long time, even if gas prices have come down.

Annie Linskey: It's very hard to turn the gas prices around so quickly. Like it does take a long time to get some of this supply, you know, right through the Gulf and through the system. So, once it shuts off, it does take a while. It's like an oil tanker. It takes a while to move.

Jeffrey Goldberg: There are two big events coming up in Washington. The lesser of the two, the White House Correspondents' Dinner where the president will celebrate the First Amendment and the free press. I'll leave my commentary for after the show.

The big event, King Charles and Queen Camilla will be in Washington starting on Monday to celebrate the 250th anniversary of us beating them, you know, their family, at least in a war.

Annie they're a weird combination, King Charles and Donald Trump, yes?

Annie Linskey: Yes. Well, I mean, they have some potential similarities. They both care a lot about architecture and building. They might have different styles but they do -- you could imagine them talking about this, having this in common.

But, look, this is a moment for the king. You know, the relationship right now between the U.S. and the U.K. feels to me at least as fraught as it's been in many, many years. And the president regularly mocks Keir Starmer behind his back, to aides. He's even tweeted jokes about him on his Truth Social account. But the king is somebody that the president has really respects and really in a way that there wasn't this relationship with Biden, who was Irish and had this sort of disdain for the -- I don't want to say disdain, but he didn't have the steam kind of love of the monarchy.

Jeffrey Goldberg: He didn't romanticize.

Annie Linskey: Yes, he didn't romanticize it. Thank you.

So, it is a kind of interesting dynamic and moment for the king to do something that he can play a very real role on the world stage.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right. Tyler, last few seconds, the Oval Office tour is going to be something.

Tyler Pager: It's going to be remarkable. But I think Annie's really right. Like Trump reveres royalty and he loved the state visit that he had in the United Kingdom. And I think this is an opportunity, the Brits see this as an opportunity to reestablish a good relationship with Trump because they know how much he reveres the ca of the king.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right. Well, we'll see how that goes. It's going to be an interesting moment. That's all the time we do have for tonight, however. I want to thank our guests for joining me. I want to thank you at home for watching us.

For more of Yvonne's reporting on why President Trump's MAGA base is shrinking, please visit theatlantic.com.

I'm Jeffrey Goldberg. Goodnight from Washington.