Experts agreed this year that unless dramatic policy changes are put into effect right away, we’re guaranteed to experience a significant amount of global warming. It was a grim message, but other developments in 2014 show there’s still reason to hope.
In a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published in March, experts concluded that ocean levels are rising at an alarming rate, water stores are diminishing, coral reefs are dying, and extreme weather is becoming more commonplace. Ancient organic matter frozen in Arctic soils is now melting, too, prompting its eventual decay into greenhouse gases that could warm the planet even further. And as crop yields dwindle, reducing poverty will become more and more difficult. The IPCC report called for immediate action on the part of developed nations to minimize these damages.
The first sign of hope since then came in the form a surprise climate agreement between President Obama and President Xi Jinping of China, signed in November. In it, the U.S. pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 28% below 2005 levels by 2025, and China agreed to stunt its growth of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030. These were bold moves by both countries, but some scientists still question whether or not these goals are even achievable and what kind of an effect they would have.
While political leaders and scientists are pushing for new policies, much of the general population still don’t believe in the reality of manmade climate change. A recent Pew Research Center poll indicated that only 40% of Americans attribute global warming to human activity. Why that is remains an unanswered question, though as Brad Balukjian reported for NOVA Next in November, the answer could lie in the ineffectiveness of climate science communication. Dan Kahan of Yale University believes that, for many, taking a stand on climate change is a decision of cultural rather than scientific significance. But Michael Ranney of UC Berkeley says that the problem has more to do with how we explain the mechanism of climate change.
Here’s Balukjian:
One of the most common misconceptions, according to Ranney, is that light energy “bounces” off the surface of the Earth and then is trapped or “bounced back” by greenhouse gases. The correct mechanism is subtly different. Ranney’s research group has boiled it down to 35 words: “Earth transforms sunlight’s visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly—raising Earth’s temperature.”
The onslaught of a changing climate could have unforeseeable ramifications. Already we know that forest fires could become more frequent, tropical diseases could become more prevalent, and lightning bolts could streak more readily across the sky. They are challenges that seem too large for any individual to tackle, but fortunately, scholars at MIT have developed a tool to help perfect strangers collaborate with each other online . While the messages about climate change sound increasingly grim, there’s reason for optimism given the opportunities and actions taken to combat it.
