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Lovins 20 (1:18)
Topic(s): Alt Vehicles / Foreign Oil / Future Transport
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Only an eighth of the world's people have cars and most of the other seven-eights would like a car. Places like China and Africa have the level of car ownership that Americans had around World War I. On the other hand, normal forecasts would tell you that in thirty years, just the Chinese car fleet would need another one or two Saudi Arabias to run it. There aren't another one or two Saudi Arabias and the Chinese leadership is deathly afraid of falling into the same oil trap we did and that's why the top priority in international development strategy is energy efficiency through "leap frog" technology, while we are the intended "leap frogees."

I asked a well placed friend in Detroit recently how long it will be before you drive home from Wal-Mart in your new Wally, made by maybe Shanghai Automotive, and not using much oil. He said, "Oh, in about ten years," which is tomorrow in the auto business and after that they'll sell you a car that doesn't use any oil because China intends to become the world leader in fuel sales just as it already is in lithium-ion batteries and it takes the same smart electric chemists to do both.