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Timeline:
James A. Garfield |
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1935 - George Gallup’s started a weekly column, America Speaks, based on the new technology of public opinion polls. Gallup used a new kind of public opinion polling method called quota sampling. 1936 - Gallup promised newspapers that were paying to use his survey data that if he didn’t predict the results of the 1936 election more accurately than the prediction of the Literary Digest, Gallup would refund their money. The Literary Digest forecasted the election with a sample numbering in the millions. Gallup’s quota sample included only three thousand people. But Gallup’s sample was more representative of the electorate as a whole. The Literary Digest sample, while very large, was also skewed—it included few working class voters. 1948 - Gallup’s forecast of the presidential election, like all the other polls, was wrong. Gallup had stopped polling a week before the election. In that last week, a significant number of voters changed their minds and voted to elect President Truman. Also, quota sampling was not perfect and was replaced by random probability sampling. Related Links: Interviews:
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PBS Program | Trends of the Century | Viewer's Voices | Interactivity | Teacher's Guide |
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