WASHINGTON (AP) — The majority of Iowa Republicans who are caucusing Monday believe in the need to "Make America Great Again," a sign of how Donald Trump and his political movement have transformed a state party that denied him a victory eight years ago.
AP VoteCast found that nearly all those participating in the nation's first presidential contest want significant change in how the country is run, if not a total upheaval. About 6 in 10 identify as supporters of the movement that Trump jumpstarted in his winning 2016 campaign and the former president has nurtured further in his 2024 run for the White House.
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The findings from AP VoteCast suggest that Trump is in a strong position as the caucuses began. He shows significant strength among urban, small town and rural communities. Trump also performs well with evangelical Christians and those without a college degree. One relative weakness for Trump comes in the suburbs, where only about 4 in 10 support him.
AP VoteCast is a survey of more than 1,500 voters who said they planned to take part in the caucuses. The survey is conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
Iowa Republicans who showed up to caucus prioritized immigration: about 4 in 10 GOP caucusgoers chose it as the most important issue facing the country. About one-third said it was the economy. Fewer people named other priorities, including foreign policy, health care or energy.
Trump's other strengths
Caucusgoers who care foremost about immigration or the economy are most likely to be in Trump's camp.
Among those who identified immigration as the most important issue for the nation, roughly two-thirds back Trump. Those participating on Monday agreed with his hard-line stance on finding ways to limit immigration.
About 9 in 10 of GOP caucusgoers back building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, with about 7 in 10 expressing strong support for the idea first championed by Trump during his 2016 campaign. The vast majority, about three-quarters, say immigrants hurt the United States, an indication that there is a desire to reduce overall immigration levels.
Of those who prioritized the economy, about half support Trump.
The challengers
Among Republicans, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haleyis something of an anti-Trump option, even though she was his U.N. ambassador.
She is the top candidate of GOP caucusgoers who say Trump did something illegal when it comes to at least one of the criminal cases against him. Among those who say they are caucusing for Haley, about 4 in 10 voted in the 2020 presidential election for Democrat Joe Biden, who defeated Trump. Haley also appears competitive with Trump among people who say foreign policy is the top issue facing the country. Most of Haley's supporters have a college degree, more so than among supporters of Trump.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis performs best among the caucusgoers who are dissatisfied with Trump but say they would ultimately vote for him in the general election. DeSantis' supporters are more likely than those for other candidates to say they think abortion should always be illegal.
About 3 in 10 caucusgoers supporting biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy are under age 30, compared with only about 1 in 10 of those backing any of the other top candidates. Ramaswamy, 38, has tried to emphasize his youth as an advantage.
Few last-minute decisions
About two-thirds of caucus attendees say they decided whom they would support more than a month ago, including about 4 in 10 saying they have known all along. About 2 in 10 say they only decided in the past few days. Most Iowans attending a caucus have done so before, but about 3 in 10 are first-time participants.
AP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research for AP and Fox News. The survey of 1,517 voters was conducted for eight days, concluding as the caucuses begin. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The survey combines a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files and self-identified registered voters selected from nonprobability online panels. The margin of sampling error for voters is estimated to be plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Find more details about AP VoteCast's methodology at https://ap.org/votecast.