It's Primary Day in the center of Trump country, with voters in Indiana, Ohio and West Virginia casting their ballots Tuesday for Republican candidates vying to replace three vulnerable Democratic senators in November.
Sens. Joe Donnelly, D-Ind., Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, and Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., have been targeted by the GOP since President Donald Trump carried their states en route to the 2016 election.
But the Republican primary races in those states have been contentious, filled with decades-old feuds and controversial candidates — among them a former coal executive who has attacked Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in unusually personal terms.
Here's what we'll be watching in the three races:
INDIANA
The candidates: GOP Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita, and businessman Mike Braun.
The issues: All three candidates' campaigns have boiled down to a "pro-gun, pro-life, pro-Trump, vote for me" message, said Marjorie Hershey, a political science professor at Indiana University said. "There's not much daylight between the candidates."
They have tried to differentiate themselves by painting each other as out-of-touch-elites, products of Washington, and political insiders. The candidates have also turned to personal slights, from attacks on Messer's wife to Trumpian nicknames like "Todd the Fraud."
Rep. Todd Rokita, R-Ind., who is running for the Republican nomination for Senate in Indiana, addresses voters in South Bend, Ind., on April 5, 2018. (Photo By Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)
Braun, who served one term in the state House, has benefitted from the bickering. A former Democrat, Braun has used his personal fortune to buy television ads across the state that painted Messer and Rokita as indistinguishable career politicians.
The bottom line: This primary has been hotly contested ever since Messer and Rokita announced their candidacies last August. The two have been feuding since they were students at Wabash College, then again as state lawmakers. As Indiana's secretary of state, Rokita proposed an amendment that would make it illegal for lawmakers to live outside their district. The state legislature opposed the idea, and later lawmakers in charge of redistricting — including Messer — drew new lines placing Rokita's house (by then he was in Congress) 500 yards outside of the district he represented in Washington.
On the left, Donnelly has positioned himself as a moderate Democrat who is willing to cross the aisle. He was one of the few Democrats who voted in favor of Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch's confirmation last March. So far, Donnelly has largely followed his playbook from 2012, when he ran for the Senate while a contentious primary fight played out on the right. That year, Tea Party favorite Richard Mourdock beat longtime GOP Sen. Richard Lugar in the Republican primary, but Donnelly won the general election in part by appealing to independent voters who were turned off by Mourdock's polarizing views. Still, Hoosiers are supportive of Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, a former Indiana governor, making it a prime seat for Republicans to pick off this fall.
OHIO
The candidates: Rep. Jim Renacci and banker and GOP donor Mike Gibbons.
The issues: The candidates in Ohio's GOP Senate primary have worked hard to try and "out-Trump" each other, former Ohio Republican Chairman Matt Borges said. But the opioid crisis has been a central factor for voters, because it impacts so many other issues like job growth, health care, the economy, and education.
"Opioids is the issue that dominates," Borges said. "But Trump is the personality that dominates every discussion."
Trump has visited the Buckeye State on multiple occasions to tout the successes of the tax reform law he signed in December. In the final days of the primary, the president recorded a robocall urging voters to back Renacci, saying he had the best chance to beat Democrat Sherrod Brown this fall.
US President Donald Trump listens to US Representative Jim Renacci (L) during a roundtable discussion on the new tax law at the Cleveland Public Auditorium and Conference Center on May 5, 2018, in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nicholas Kamm / AFP) (Photo credit should read NICHOLAS KAMM/AFP/Getty Images)
The bottom line: Trump's endorsement could give Renacci a big boost Tuesday. Renacci also benefited from a relatively noncompetitive primary after GOP frontrunner Josh Mandel dropped off in January, and broad support from the state and national Republican parties.
But if he wins, Renacci may not have it as easy in the general election. On trade policy, Brown is significantly closer to Trump's views than Renacci, a potential problem in a state where the issue is front and center. Brown has also mixed his brand of progressive populism with a moderate voting record in the Senate, a combination that makes him a formidable challenge for any Republican. According to the New York Times, Brown voted against Trump's cabinet and administration nominees 50 percent of the time, much less than some of his more liberal Democratic colleagues in the Senate.
WEST VIRGINIA
The candidates: Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, Rep. Evan Jenkins and former coal executive Don Blankenship.
The issues: Much like the GOP races in Indiana and Ohio, the Republican primary in West Virginia has turned into a fight over which candidate is most similar to Trump. This race features a brash businessman and political outsider in Don Blankenship, though he has a different background from Trump. Blankenship, the former CEO of Massey Energy Company, is best known for serving prison time after being convicted of conspiring to evade mine safety standards following an explosion at a coal mine that killed 29 workers in 2010.
Blankenship made headlines during the primary by calling the Senate GOP leader "Cocaine Mitch" and criticizing McConnell in an ad for creating jobs for "China people." The ad was widely criticized for being racist.
UNITED STATES – MAY 3: Don Blankenship, right, who is running for the Republican nomination for Senate in West Virginia, talks with James Pendry after a town hall meeting at Macado's restaurant in Bluefield, W.Va., on May 3, 2018. (Photo By Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)
The two other GOP frontrunners have been locked in a bitter battle about the opioid epidemic and abortion. Morrissey has attacked Jenkins for his vote for the omnibus spending bill Congress passed in March, because it did not defund Planned Parenthood. Jenkins has pointed out that Morrissey's wife worked for a law firm that represented Planned Parenthood, and that Morrissey has worked for a firm that represented Cardinal Health, a pharmaceutical company that has been criticized for contributing to the opioid crisis.
In the waning weeks of the campaign, Republican establishment groups have flooded the airwaves with anti-Blankenship attack ads, worried that he would be the weakest candidate in a a general election matchup with Manchin. Trump waded into the race as well, tweeting on Monday that Blankenship couldn't win the general election.
The bottom line: Trump won West Virginia by 40 points in 2016, making Manchin one of the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection in 2018. Since Trump took office, Manchin has showcased his bipartisanship by attempting to build a relationship with the president and crossing the aisle on key confirmation votes.
But it's unclear who will emerge to challenge Manchin this fall.
Curtis Wilkerson, a West Virginia-based pollster for the nonpartisan firm Orion Strategies predicted that "the establishment vote will be split between Morrissey and Jenkins." In a crowded primary field where the winning candidate is unlikely to clear 30 percent of the vote, a split vote may prove fatal for the establishment candidates, giving Blankenship a potential path to victory.