Brooks and Capehart on Supreme Court deciding if Trump can remain on ballots

Amna Nawaz:

The question of whether former President Donald Trump can remain on the ballot in Colorado is in the hands of the Supreme Court.

On that and the other political issues driving the start of the new year, we turn to the analysis of Brooks and Capehart. That is New York Times columnist David Brooks, and Jonathan Capehart, associate editor for The Washington Post.

Good to see you both.

David Brooks:

Good to see you.

(Crosstalk)

Jonathan Capehart:

Happy new year.

Amna Nawaz:

So, big news. You have the Supreme Court deciding today they will consider former President Trump's appeal of the Colorado state Supreme Court decision to remove him from the ballot there. That was on the basis of the Insurrection Clause of the 14th Amendment.

This, Jonathan, puts the highest court in the land squarely in the center of one of the hottest political battles this year. What's your reaction to them taking this case up and how it's going to unfold?

Jonathan Capehart:

They have to take it up, because this is one of those questions. This ballot access question, primary ballot access question and the immunity question has never been tested in our lifetimes or in recent memory.

And the fact that Colorado and Maine have booted him from the ballot, Illinois is trying to join the effort, Minnesota and one other state that skips — Michigan have said no, you have a patchwork of states state decisions. And I think the prosecutor who you had on earlier makes a good point.

What we have to look for now is whether the Supreme Court does a big, broad, universal decision or goes very, very narrow. For a court that puts a lot of emphasis and a lot of emphasis on the Constitution and what the framers meant and strict originalist interpretation, I'm looking forward to seeing them maybe upholding the Colorado decision.

Amna Nawaz:

A lot of this does come down to the wording, right? That is part of the appeal argument Mr. Trump's lawyers have laid out.

How do you look at this, David?

David Brooks:

Yes, I'd be stunned if they upheld the Colorado ruling. I would be completely stunned.

I look at this — I'm not a legal scholar. I look at this through the crisis of legitimacy we're living through. A lot of Americans have no faith in any of our systems. A lot of Americans have no faith in the other half of the country. And so we're in danger, in my view, of coming apart at the seams, of really entering a terrible era of violence even, political violence.

And so, in my view, if some lawyers took Donald Trump off the ballot, half the country would say, that's it. We're done here. This is a totally rotten system. So I'm hoping the Supreme Court will not uphold Colorado, but let the voters decide. In my view, we have to let the voters handle this one.

But, then, the Supreme Court is not exactly without its legitimacy problems either.

Amna Nawaz:

Right.

David Brooks:

And so how does the Supreme Court handle this? If it becomes a partisan decision, then their part — then their — the legitimacy of the Supreme Court is even more in trouble.

So I'm hoping and expecting that John Roberts is going to work super hard to make this 9-0 or 7-2 or something like that, and maybe, if not restore some legitimacy, at least not have a legitimacy freefall, which I think is what we're looking at.

Amna Nawaz:

Well, I want to read to you part of a statement we have just gotten from the Trump campaign and, Jonathan, get your reaction to what David just said and to this.

They say in a statement from Steven Cheung, Mr. Trump's spokesman: "We welcome a fair hearing at the Supreme Court." They argue this is a bad faith election interfering, voter suppressing argument to remove him from the ballot. I'm paraphrasing here. And, at the end, they say: "We are confident the fair-minded Supreme Court will unanimously affirm the civil rights of President Trump," basically allowing him to remain on the ballot.

Jonathan.

Jonathan Capehart:

The one phrase you left out in your summation in the election interfering, voter suppressing, Democrat-backed and Biden-led 14th Amendment-abusing decision, blah, blah, blah.

I focus on that, because that is untrue. These challenges are being brought by Republicans in those states challenging his — Trump's ability to be on the Republican primary ballot. This is — this has nothing to do with Democrats. I mean, Democrats are surely cheering what's happening, but they're not the driving force behind this.

And the former president doesn't want to go there, doesn't even touch it, tries to reverse it, and put it on Democrats, when the call is coming from within his own party.

Amna Nawaz:

Is there a way for the Supreme Court to weigh in on this and have it not be perceived as political?

(Laughter)

David Brooks:

No.

I mean, some people are — you can predict whether people like or dislike Donald Trump is whether they think he should be thrown off the ballot, with a few honorable exceptions. And so, of course, people are going to think it's political.

But if it's a 9-0, then I think we have dodged a bullet. And if it's 8-1, 7-2 — as I say, if it's 6-3, it'll just be another step toward the fragility of our system.

Amna Nawaz:

I want to ask you two about tomorrow, which does mark three years since the January 6 insurrection.

I'm sure you all saw President Biden deliver that really powerful speech today at Valley Forge in Pennsylvania. He is making the threat to American democracy a central part of his reelection campaign. What did you make of the speech, and also him centering that message for voters right now?

Jonathan Capehart:

Well, this is going back to the beginning.

First, this was his fifth speech since his election on this theme of threats to democracy. This is going back to the beginning, because when he announced he was running for president in 2020, he zeroed in on Charlottesville and talked about, this was a fight for the soul of America.

This speech today did not have that as the title, but that's what he's talking about. That's what he talked about today. That's what he's been talking about in the previous four speeches. And I think it is right for him to do this, to focus on that, because, without democracy, none of the other things that Americans want will get done.

And to make a focus on the potential Republican nominee, someone who has said, even today, saying that I'm only going to be a dictator for one day, and all of the other plans that we know he wants to put in place if he wins election again, democracy as we know it will end if Donald Trump is reelected.

And that was a message that the president put forth today. He did it powerfully. He did it in a Joe Biden kind of way.

And I think, once you set the table with that, all the other things he will talk about on the campaign trail, from the good economy to all the other things that he's been doing for four years, will, I think, gel into a bigger message that by the time we get to the election there will be a reason to vote for him that goes beyond fearing for American democracy.

Amna Nawaz:

David, I know we have talked about this before. I mean, the economy has been such a big part of their message. And even though the data show it is doing really well, like, when you look at the big picture numbers, you have got 216,000 jobs added in December, the inflation rate is down at 3.1 percent, unemployment below 4 percent — 4 percent, rather, for nearly two years, and yet that isn't catching on with voters.

Is this message going to resonate?

David Brooks:

It's important, but not enough, I think.

I thought it was a powerful speech. I think, when he continues to give powerful speeches like this, he will further rebut the idea that he's out of it, that he's some doddering old grandpa. He's clearly an energetic guy with passion, with fervor and with force. He's the guy running this administration.

But there are a couple things. I have got this little — nice little Gallup poll here with me from a few months ago.

Amna Nawaz:

Oh.

David Brooks:

Republican — who do you trust to keep you safe? Republicans have a 14-point advantage over Democrats. Who do you trust to keep the country prosperous? Republicans have a 14-point advantage over Democrats.

So it's super hard to win an election when the voters think that the other team is better on the biggest issues, let alone immigration, where the Republicans have a huge advantage. So he's got to start with this. He's got to talk about the soul of America,racial injustice, all the stuff that he's been running on.

But, somehow, he has to have an answer that your life is going to be better under me than under him.

Amna Nawaz:

It all — sorry. Go ahead, Jonathan.

Jonathan Capehart:

Listening to David, I was scribbling down — scribbling down some notes listening to you talk about those Gallup numbers, because it takes me back. It took me back to 2022 and the midterm elections.

President Biden did the speech at Independence Hall that everyone focused on, because, oh, my God it looks so dark with the red and the blue, and why is he talking about threats to democracy when gas prices are high, inflation is high, so on and so forth? He doesn't have his finger on the pulse of America. He's not talking about what Americans are talking about.

And then we find out from the 2022 midterm elections that, actually, people did care. They did care about threats to democracy. And so I see that — I listen to the numbers that you — that you pointed out about folks who aren't Republicans think that they will be better on this, that or the other.

Same thing was said in 2022. And I would argue that the American electorate is nuanced enough and sophisticated enough to hold both things equally and then decide, which is better, which is better, which person is better for my safety and security, writ large.

Amna Nawaz:

It did strike me the number of times he mentioned former President Trump by name, which is new and different in many ways. And…

Jonathan Capehart:

Forty-six times.

Amna Nawaz:

Forty-six. Thank you for keeping track.

(Laughter)

Amna Nawaz:

And Mr. Trump still holds a commanding lead in Iowa, which is going to be the first test stop for Republican primary voters to come together and decide who they want to be their nominee.

Ambassador Nikki Haley, Governor Ron DeSantis are running a distant second and third. I just want to play for you quick sound bites of how they weighed in on Mr. Trump when they were asked about him in town halls last night on CNN.

Nikki Haley (R), Presidential Candidate: I agree with a lot of his policies, but the reality is, rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him.

And we all know that's true. Chaos follows him. And we can't have a country in disarray and a world on fire and go through four more years of chaos.

Gov. Ron Desantis (R-FL), Presidential Candidate: I think a 2024 election where the Democrats get to run against a candidate that is going through all this stuff, that is going to give the Democrats an advantage. Don't have to agree with any of the stuff that was done. That's just the reality.

Amna Nawaz:

David, what are you watching for in these final days before Iowa?

David Brooks:

Yes, I mean, I think those are good arguments. It's a little hurt by the fact that Donald Trump is now leading Joe Biden in the average of the polls. So Trump can always come back and say that.

I was all gearing up for, like, in the last weeks, things can really change. Now, I do think that's true. We have seen surges in Iowa. Obama surged in '08. Mike Huckabee, that was a wonderful surge. But then I read a statistic that depressed me, which was that nobody has surged more than 12 percentage points in the last month in Iowa.

And so these — the number two and three are way below 12 points. So it's looking pretty likely that Donald Trump is going to win there.

Amna Nawaz:

How are you seeing it, Jonathan?

Jonathan Capehart:

Yes. I see it that way. And that's why I'm more focused on, what is Donald Trump's actual vote spread in Iowa versus his lead in the polls?

And if he's leading my 50 points in the polls, but he only wins by 12 in actual voting, what does that tell us as we move into New Hampshire? That's what I'm looking for.

Amna Nawaz:

Days to go before those crucial caucuses and many more ahead.

David Brooks, Jonathan Capehart, thank you so much. Always great to see you.

Jonathan Capehart:

Thanks, Amna.

David Brooks:

Thank you.