Federal Reserve cuts interest rates amid economic uncertainty

Amna Nawaz:

The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate today for the first time this year, dropping it by a quarter-point to between 4 and 4.25 percent.

Geoff Bennett:

And the change could have an impact on many lending rates, including for mortgages, credit cards and auto loans, with the Fed also suggesting two more cuts by the end of the year.

Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran, the Trump appointee confirmed by the Senate just a day before the policy meeting kicked off, was the lone dissenter, choosing instead to call for a deeper half-point cut. Today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell explained why the rest of the committee opted for a smaller cut.

Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman:

There wasn't widespread support at all for a 50-basis-point cut today. I think we have done very large rate hikes and very large rate cuts in the last five years. And you tend to do those at a time when you feel that policy is out of place and needs to move quickly to a new place. That's not at all what I feel certainly now.

I feel like our policy has been doing the right thing so far this year. I think we were right to wait and see how tariffs and inflation and the labor market evolved.

Geoff Bennett:

For insight, we're joined again tonight by Ron Insana, a contributor to CNBC and publisher of the Substack column The Message of the Markets.

Ron, it's always great to see you.

So the Fed cut rates by a quarter-point, as expected. And Powell hinted at two more rates to come. So what does all of this tell you about what the state of the economy is?

Ron Insana, CNBC Contributor:

I think the Fed share and the statement from the policy-setting committee was pretty clear. The labor market has weakened noticeably, and that appears to be at least for now the bigger of the two risks facing the economy, the labor market getting weaker or inflation getting stronger.

Now, clearly, inflation is above trend. It's above where the Fed wants it to be. It wants it closer to 2 percent rather than 3 percent. But there have been disruptions in the labor market that pushed the Fed into cutting interest rates by this quarter-point, as you mentioned.

And I think, in this instance, it is somewhat devoid of political pressure, despite what Mr. Miran wants to do. This was an appropriate move, as Jay Powell suggested. And there may or may not be more cuts down the road, but the economy is strong in some parts, weak in others. And I think the Fed, as Jay Powell also suggested throughout his commentary, this was a risk management rate cut, not the start of something much bigger, like a huge drop in interest rates in the near term.

Geoff Bennett:

A risk management rate cut.

So when will everyday Americans feel the impact of lower borrowing costs and in what ways?

Ron Insana:

Well, not tomorrow. I mean, I think when you look at the broad spectrum of interest rates, the 10-year note yield, which is what mortgages are based on, actually went up a little bit to 4.08 percent. Credit card rates aren't really that sensitive to what the Federal Reserve does. Credit card rates are averaging about 20 percent. If they come down a little bit, it'll be surprising, but they may.

Mortgage rates have come down a lot in the last couple of weeks. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now about 6.3 percent. We have seen a surge of refinancing. So that's where we may see the most activity, particularly if that 10-year note yield should start to drift back towards 4 percent or maybe even a little bit below it.

Geoff Bennett:

And Powell also flagged immigration as a bigger driver of labor market dynamics, as opposed to tariffs. How significant is that shift in emphasis?

Ron Insana:

Well, I think it's extraordinarily significant.

I mean, as you have seen raids on various employer operations, in some cases plants that weren't being finished, but were being worked on, by legal — those who hold visas, work visas to be here in the United States, South Koreans, in particular, I think that's very — it's critical because the size of the labor market is shrinking as demand for labor also is being reduced.

That's something that's kind of confusing to the Federal Reserve, which is accustomed to a different style of labor market, either one that's overheating or growing so fast and we're adding a lot of people or one that's shrinking really quickly and we're losing a lot of folks, the unemployment rate goes up.

That's not what we're seeing right now. There's very much a different dynamic at work at the moment.

Geoff Bennett:

We have got Stephen Miran now on the board, as we mentioned. There is this ongoing debate and this pressure on Lisa Cook. How should we understand this broader battle over the Fed's composition and credibility?

Ron Insana:

Well, I think this is an important, in fact, maybe the most important long-term question for the economy going forward is the credibility and the independence of the Federal Reserve.

If — as the president has voiced his opinion in regard to this, he would like to see the Federal Reserve filled with those who believe, as he does, that interest rates should be substantially lower, so much so that it would ease the burden of how much we pay in terms of interest on the federal debt, would stimulate the economy further, which may or may not be necessary, because it could produce higher rates of inflation.

But packing the Fed, as it were, to use an old expression, is something the president seems bent on doing. And, again, calling into question the independence and even, in some cases, the competence of certain Federal Reserve officials down the road could make foreign buyers of U.S. treasuries less likely to do so. It could drive up the cost of U.S. debt, and it could make the dollar weaker over time.

So, in a certain sense, the president is playing with fire here. The Federal Reserve has done over time a very good job at generally maintaining equilibrium in the economy and meeting its statutory mandates of maximum employment and stable prices for the most part.

Trying just to get interest rates down for the sake of getting them down for political reasons, other than economic reasons, is a very dangerous game.

Geoff Bennett:

Ron Insana, CNBC contributor and publisher of the Substack column The Message of the Markets, good to see you, friend.

Ron Insana:

You also. Thank you.