Government shutdown deadline looms amid new concerns about potential effects

Amna Nawaz:

Today, warnings from within and outside of government about the potential effects of a government shutdown. That includes concerns from the Department of Justice that national security could be affected, a signal from Moody's that it would downgrade U.S. credit and red flags from scores of other groups, from the military to low-income families.

Congress has until Saturday to figure this out.

So, where do things stand?

For that, we turn to our congressional correspondent, Lisa Desjardins, on Capitol Hill.

Lisa, great to see you.

So, at this stage, is there any hope on Capitol Hill that a shutdown could be avoided?

Lisa Desjardins:

There is always hope, of course, Amna.

But I will say it is very faint at this moment. It is hard to see exactly how a shutdown is avoided. Part of the reason here is because this all started in the House side with the idea of competing interests. There is one potential solution the Senate side. I want to take a look at the Senate floor right now.

As I speak to you, the Senate is now voting on a short-term funding bill. This is an initial procedural vote, but it does at this moment have the support to move forward. The Senate's version of this is relatively simple, Amna. Keep government funded. They also would include some funding for Ukraine.

That is something that is more controversial on the House side. The Senate is hoping to get that through sometime this week, but it's not clear, and, in fact, I would say it is unlikely that the House is going to simply pass that bill.

Amna Nawaz:

Lisa, for many Americans watching this unfold, this is a little baffling.

So help us understand where we are right now by reminding us why we are here right now.

Lisa Desjardins:

Right.

Far be it from modern Congresses to be logical, but this is an especially wild and I think confusing situation. Part of the problem, as I said earlier, is that House Republicans had competing goals within their own conference. Some wanted to have more spending cuts than others.

Some wanted to use tougher tactics than other. We have talked about that before. I think it's more simple right now to talk about where we are in terms of the decisions that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has to make, because the next moves are really up to him. He has a few key options realistically.

First, let's talk about option one. That is the idea of bringing that Senate-passed funding bill to the House floor. Let's talk about pros and cons. On the pro side, a shutdown likely would be avoided. There probably would be enough Republicans decide with Democrats to pass that funding bill.

But on the con side for that, it would need those Democratic votes. And that brings the other point. That would potentially threaten Speaker McCarthy's own speakership.

Now, that's not an option that he likes for many reasons. So, let's talk about his next option Speaker McCarthy has, would be to pass essentially Republican-only funding bills, large funding bills, complicated funding bills.

That's what they're doing now. That would assuage conservatives, his speakership would be saved. But, Amna, the cons are, I don't have to tell you, that would essentially guarantee a shutdown, because passing those large and more complicated yearlong funding bills would take weeks to resolve with the Senate. They would simply run out of time.

Now, I asked Speaker McCarthy today if he's concerned about his speakership. He said, no, he's worried about the American people. He's worried about issues like border security. But, to me, that left open the question of whether he really would try and get this done this week.

There are some longshot options here as well I want people to be aware of. One is the House could pass a short-term funding bill. They're trying, but so far they have not been able to figure out amongst themselves, Republicans, what that would look like.

And then there's a discharge petition. We have some of the smartest viewers in the world. You know that. I think they're familiar with this concept that if enough members of the House signed a petition, they could force through a funding bill, but that again could put Speaker McCarthy's speakership in jeopardy.

So this is why we're where we are now.

Amna Nawaz:

Where we are with the clock ticking and days away.

Lisa, while I have you, I need to ask you about another major story on the Hill. There is increasing pressure on New Jersey Democratic Senator Bob Menendez to resign. He's facing bribery charges and an arraignment tomorrow. Just bring us up to speed here on what we should know.

Lisa Desjardins:

The now stepped-down — the former chairman of the House Foreign Relations Committee is here today. We weren't sure he came up — came for a vote, but amid calls for resignation by many, increasing numbers of Democratic senators, including fellow New Jersey Senator Cory Booker who wrote this today.

He said: "The faith and trust of New Jerseyans have been shaken to the core. Stepping down is not an admission of guilt, but an acknowledgement that holding public office often demands tremendous sacrifices."

Amna, Senator Menendez's seat is up next year. Democrats cannot afford to spend money on it. They don't want someone under indictment, especially with this indictment, to be running again. There's a lot of pressure for him the resign. So far, he says: No way. I'm staying.

Amna Nawaz:

Lisa Desjardins on Capitol Hill for us, covering it all, Lisa, thank you. Good to see you.

Lisa Desjardins:

You're welcome.