How Biden’s trip to Israel and U.S. response to war is resonating in Middle East

Amna Nawaz:

Let's delve further into the Biden administration's response to the Israel-Hamas war and specifically how President Biden's trip to Israel yesterday is being seen in the region.

For that, we get two views.

Marwan Muasher was Jordan's deputy prime minister and foreign minister. He's now vice president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. And David Makovsky is a distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He's a former journalist and was also a senior adviser for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations during the Obama administration.

And welcome to you both, gentlemen. Thank you for joining us.

David, I want to begin with you.

The president has now made this trip to Israel to show solidarity on wavering U.S. support. From what you know, what's the message he was delivering behind closed doors?

David Makovsky, Senior Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy: I think behind closed doors was a couple of things.

He was — because, having built the street cred of the empathy with a country at a time of severe trauma, sense of more clarity of saying, I have no illusions who Hamas is, the slaughter of 1,300 people and the like, and I have dispatched these aircraft carriers to deter Iran, so this war is not regionalized, which you don't want, the Arabs don't want.

So, having that street cred in a certain way with the Israeli public and that bond that I feel he's really deepened in these last 10 days, I think he also thought this is a chance for some friendly advice and to say, hey, I really want this humanitarian corridor, bringing trucks in from Egypt. And Secretary of State Blinken paved the way also with his diplomacy over the last week.

And second is, I want to know the endgame. I want to know how a military strategy is part of a political strategy after this is over. What would a post-Hamas Gaza look like? Have you given some thought to that?

Amna Nawaz:

This is the message he's delivering, President Biden's delivering.

David Makovsky:

Yes.

Amna Nawaz:

Marwan, over to you now, because President Biden did announce that some of those aid lines into Gaza have been opened. He pledged another $100 million in U.S. aid to Palestinians.

How is his trip resonating among Palestinians, among their neighbors there and in the broader region?

Marwan Muasher, Former Jordanian Foreign Minister:

To be candid, it's being seen in extremely negative light, not because the president did not — did show empathy for the Israeli civilians that have been killed — I mean, nobody should condone targeting civilians, nobody — but because he did not show the same empathy towards the Palestinians who are being harmed, towards the collective punishment of two million Palestinians in Gaza.

And the Arab world today is asking, what about the day after, not just who will rule Hamas and Gaza after that, but if we are to have a political process that deals with the root cause of the problem, which is the occupation, can the United States — this is what the Arab world is asking — can the United States be counted on as a broker?

Forget the word honest broker, but as a broker, period, between Palestinians and Israelis. Today, the United States' image in the region as a leader in trying to effect a political solution has been severely damaged.

Amna Nawaz:

David, let me take a piece of what Marwan said there, specifically on civilian casualties.

And there have been over 3,000 Palestinians killed in retaliatory Israeli strikes since that Hamas attack. How hard did President Biden press on that? Publicly, he said, we want them to minimize casualties.

Is that a priority for the U.S., and do they have sway?

David Makovsky:

Yes, no doubt, No doubt.

I mean, I have no doubt. He said — by the way, he said he got very little pushback. This is not about checking a box. This is not about being pro forma.

It is ironic, though, that this — according to American intelligence, our system, according to the president, who said, my data comes from the Pentagon, and then the I.C., the international — the intel community, this bomb, it was a misfire.

Amna Nawaz:

You're talking about the Baptist hospital explosion, right?

David Makovsky:

Right, but that's what triggered these demonstrations in the Arab world is…

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

David Makovsky:

And I worry that the disinformation on social media is going to be a new factor here that can inflame attitudes throughout the region. And go prove a negative to something you didn't do.

But — because for the people who demonstrated, they heard one side.

Amna Nawaz:

So, Marwan, let's talk about that reaction we have seen to the hospital blast, and also just to continued Israeli airstrikes, a potential ground invasion ahead.

What would be the impact on Jordan and in other countries that have a relationship with Israel in the area?

Marwan Muasher:

Again, it would be a very strong impact.

We have witnessed protests in Jordan that are unprecedented. Not since the Arab Spring, not even during the Arab Spring we witnessed such demonstrations. Jordan and Egypt are extremely worried that this is going to result in a mass transfer of Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt, and, potentially, if the conflict escalates, from the West Bank to Jordan.

When we talk about human corridor, people ask, why should a human corridor be from Gaza to Egypt? Why can't Palestinians go to the West Bank, for example, and be assured that they're not going to leave their homes again? This conflict might be used by Israel to try to empty parts of the Palestinians into Egypt.

And so that is what is at stake here. We are already seeing thousands of Palestinians — as you said, Amna, thousands of Palestinians have been killed by Israeli raids, even without the hospital issue. And I'm afraid this is going to be only a prelude to the carnage that will occur if Israel indeed goes into Gaza.

We are going to talk about tens of thousands of casualties. And then where do we go from here? How do we translate this crisis into a political process? It's something that nobody knows.

Amna Nawaz:

So, David, let me get your response to what you just heard there.

David Makovsky:

No, look, I — as someone who worked in the Obama administration on this issue, our effort for two states was stymied by the fact that the rejectionists were just too strong.

Three times, the United States tried to solve this conflict, which you don't hear about often, Clinton, Condoleezza Rice and John Kerry that I worked for in the Obama administration. I think these were noble efforts to solve this once and for all.

But Hamas was strong enough to — frankly, to torpedo. And my hope is that there's more dignity for both sides here, that you don't have ISIS as a neighbor, that you're able to have a post-Hamas Gaza which is about, how do we reconstruct, how do we build, how do we work together, Israelis and Palestinians alike?

And I think the president's effort, by the way, with Saudi Arabia, when this is all over, to find some sort of broader normalization, I think that would be a real answer to this kind of rejectionism that we have seen.

Amna Nawaz:

I take your point.

David Makovsky:

Yes.

Amna Nawaz:

But also, at this moment in time, when everything seems to be trending the opposite direction…

David Makovsky:

Right.

Amna Nawaz:

… is there any space to have that conversation right now?

David Makovsky:

No, it's very hard. It's very hard. You have no space in Israel. You have no space in the Arab world. There has to be…

Amna Nawaz:

And could a ground invasion and the further displacement of two million Palestinians further complicate that conversation?

David Makovsky:

Well, first of all, I don't — I disagree. Marwan and I have known each other for many years, and I have a lot of respect.

I don't see Israel moving Gazans into the Sinai. I just don't see it. And Israel has sharply denied all these kinds of reports. So I think some of the reports are just — are not based, in my view, on reality.

My view is that the status quo cannot continue this way. We need some way that the rejectionists do not have a veto over most of the people on both sides who just want to live together. And we keep saying, well, we kick the can, but no one can live with a genocidal group next door. And there's no hope for two states if they're — if they have that veto.

Amna Nawaz:

Marwan, I will give you the last word here.

Marwan Muasher:

I totally agree that the status quo cannot be maintained, Amna. Otherwise, the cycle of virus will continue.

But if the status quo is not to remain, we have to deal with the root cause, which is the occupation. Why is there an occupation in the first place, the longest occupation in modern history? If there was no occupation, we would all live peacefully together.

But Israel insists on keeping the land. It cannot have — keep the cake and eat it. We have to deal with the root cause. And until we understand this reality, no normalization agreement with the region can come — can bring peace to the Middle East and bring peace to that piece of land if the Israelis and the Palestinians are not able to come to terms with each other.

This does not require a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. It requires a peace agreement with the Palestinians.

Amna Nawaz:

Marwan Muasher and David Makovsky, thank you so much to both of you for joining us. We appreciate your time.

David Makovsky:

Thank you. Thank you.

Marwan Muasher:

Thank you.