Mideast experts weigh in on Trump’s economic and defense deals in the region

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• Amna Nawaz:

  Let's return now to President Trump's trip to the Middle East. He announced the lifting of sanctions on Syria, along with hundreds of billions of dollars in new arms sales and U.S.-Saudi business agreements.

  For additional perspective on all this, we get two views. Vali Nasr is a professor of international relations at Johns Hopkins University and was an adviser in the State Department during the Obama administration. His latest book is "Iran's Grand Strategy: A Political History." And Bernard Haykel is professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University and senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.

  Gentlemen, welcome to you both.

  And, Bernie Haykel, I will start with you here.

  The White House is hailing these economic and defense deals that they announced during President Trump's trip, including the $600 billion in what they say are Saudi investments. What stands out to you in terms of what the U.S. says they were able to secure from Saudi Arabia during this trip?

• Bernard Haykel, Princeton University:

  Well, thank you.

  They certainly were able to secure major arms deals and also a major agreement on artificial intelligence. But I think the American administration's principal goal has been to — and Saudi Arabia's principal goal has been to forge a strategic alliance because the Americans don't want the Saudis to veer towards China, especially when it comes to technology and A.I.

  And I think that relationship, that strategic relationship, has been very strongly solidified with this visit of President Trump.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Vali Nasr, what about this major development Nick reported on earlier, President Trump's announcement that he will lift sanctions on Syria, he will meet with Syria's leader tomorrow?

  This is something the Saudis have been pushing for. Does this say to you that Saudi Arabia is influencing Trump's policy in the Middle East? And could that mean other changes for U.S. policy in the region?

  Vali Nasr, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University: Well, thank you very much for having us.

  I think, building on what Bernie said, that what we're seeing is a moment in which a strategic relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia is forging. The president is going to Saudi Arabia after also concluding a cease-fire with the Houthis, in which the Saudis did play an important role. There is the nuclear negotiations with Iran, where, although Saudi Arabia is not sitting at the table, it is having influence both on Tehran and in Washington in prodding them towards a deal.

  And generally what we are seeing is that the United States is actually moving its Middle East policy closer to an access with Riyadh in a way in which the U.S. foreign policy decisions are reflecting much more what is Saudi Arabia's vision for peace and stability and future of this region, more so than that of Israel, for instance, which we would have expected to be the case.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Bernie Haykel, pick up on that point there, the fact also that Mohammed bin Salman has been calling specifically for a cease-fire in Gaza, right? He's been calling for some kind of credible plan for statehood for Palestinians. That's been roundly rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

  And also Netanyahu carried out bombings in Gaza while President Trump is in the region. Does this meeting, you think, get MBS any closer to his goals for Palestinians?

• Bernard Haykel:

  Well, I definitely think that people in Israel will not be happy listening to President Trump's speech today, largely because of the Syria — the lifting of sanctions on Syria. The Israelis are very worried that this new Syrian leadership is a jihadist leadership and have sought very hard to prevent that leadership from fully consolidating its power.

  On Israel and on the Palestinians, also, President Trump was clear that, while he wants normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, he does understand that the Saudis are not ready for this unless the Israelis are going to commit themselves to the Palestinian — to the establishment of a Palestinian state. And that's clearly not on the cards.

  He did not, though — President Trump did not come out and condemn Israel for its actions in Gaza. He just lamented the terrible humanitarian situation there, and so far has not really exerted any pressure on Israel to stop its attack on Gaza. And that, I think, will have disappointed the Saudis greatly.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Vali Nasr, pick up on that. Do you agree with Bernie Haykel's take?

• Vali Nasr:

  Yes, I think he's correct, in the sense that Israel has wanted to follow up on its initial war in Gaza to finish off Hamas, to occupy the territory, to pacify it. He also wanted to take the war to Iran and finish off Iran's nuclear program and essentially have a military solution for this region.

  We see that Saudi Arabia has been pushing for a very different agenda, a cease-fire in Yemen, a bringing in Syria into the fold in the Arab world, lifting sanctions on it, new nuclear talks with Iran, and an end to the Gaza war with a future for the Palestinians.

  And, increasingly, we're seeing the influence of Riyadh in Washington, that Washington's position is moving gradually more and more aligned with Saudi Arabia. And I have to say also it is important that Saudi Arabia is delivering. For instance, it did play a positive role in bringing about the Houthi cease-fire with the United States.

  It's playing a positive role in negotiations between the United States and Iran and also in bringing Syria into the fold in the Arab world. So, all put together, it's not that President Trump is giving a gift to Mohammed bin Salman. I think this is a moment where Saudi Arabia is playing a much bigger role.

  And because it's playing a bigger role, and effectively, I think it's having an influence on American foreign policy. And, to Bernie's point, that's not welcome news in Israel, which has a very different theory of how to move forward in the Middle East.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Bernie Haykel, when it comes to the relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, though, previous U.S. governments had at least — they have made a point of bringing up, of showing concern about human rights abuses in Saudi Arabia.

• Bernard Haykel:

  Yes.

• Amna Nawaz:

  This government has not. It may not be surprising, but is that good policy to you?

• Bernard Haykel:

  Well, I mean, I think the — from the Saudi perspective, the fact that the Trump administration doesn't care or doesn't seem to care very much about what we call values, namely, democracy, human rights, or at least doesn't interfere, doesn't seem to — or appear to interfere in the domestic affairs of Saudi Arabia is very welcome.

  And, by the way, it's very welcome by many other leaders in this part of the world, not just in Saudi Arabia. So they prefer a transactional, interest-based, realist foreign policy. And, of course, that's something that they did not like about the first two years of the Biden administration and certainly some aspects of the Obama administration, where U.S. foreign policy played on the issues of values or at least invoked values.

  This was also true, by the way, for the George W. Bush administration with the neocons, who were criticized by President Trump today. So the Saudis are definitely happier with this approach to American foreign policy.

  I would also add one other thing, which is that the Saudi foreign policy now, the way it views the region, is also one that is based on realism and pragmatism. And they see arsonists in the region. They see the Israelis as — the right-wing Israelis as arsonist, people who want to use violence and military power, as Vali said, to change the political equation in the region.

  They also see some elements in the Iranian regime who are extremists and who also would like to use nonstate actors and terror. And they very much want to move away from the — let's call the arsonist view and plans for the Middle East towards one that focuses much more on order, stability, prosperity, economic development, because they cannot diversify their economy, they cannot move away from their dependence on oil without that stability and that order being the way the region is managed and run.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Vali Nasr, in the last minute or so we have left, I will give you the final word.

• Vali Nasr:

  I think I concur with Bernie. I think this region has gone through tremendous amount of trauma in the past two years and its future is hanging in the balance of whether it's going to be more war or some path to stability and economic development.

  And I think to be preaching democracy and values at this point in time without having a road map going forward would fall on deaf ears in the region. I think the Middle East is looking to the United States to show a path towards stability. And I think that's what is important about this visit to Saudi Arabia.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Vali Nasr and Bernard Haykel, thank you both for your time. Really appreciate it.

• Bernard Haykel:

  Thank you.

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