Escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah grow fears of wider outbreak of war

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• Geoff Bennett:

  We're going to keep our focus on the risk of a regional conflict in the Middle East as tensions with Iran increase.

  For that, we turn to Paul Salem, the president and CEO of the Middle East Institute. That's a Washington-based nonpartisan think tank.

  Thank you for being with us.

  Mr. Salem, how do you interpret the comments from Benny Gantz, Israel's former defense minister, current member of Israel's war cabinet, who is clearly warning about the potential for military escalation against Hezbollah?

  Paul Salem, President and CEO, Middle East Institute: Well, there's been tension between Israel and Hezbollah from the first day of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7.

  Recent reporting indicated that the U.S. talked Israel down from a preemptive attack on Hezbollah early in those days. This tension is coming back center stage. And the Israelis have made it very clear to the Americans and to the world that they want some resolution to parts of the situation on their northern border with Hezbollah and Lebanon.

  Otherwise, they will take military action, or at least that's what they're threatening.

• Geoff Bennett:

  Is Israel capable of starting and maintaining a two-front war right now?

• Paul Salem:

  Yes, I believe it is capable of doing that. Obviously, that would take a lot of manpower and a lot of effort.

  I think, particularly as they maybe transition their war in Gaza to a more focused, a more targeted campaign, they might have the capacity to open a second front. But the challenge is that Hezbollah has so much firepower that it could unleash on Israeli economic infrastructure, civilian infrastructure, the energy infrastructure, including offshore gas operations that the calculation is really not so much can they wage a war as, rather, can they bear the brunt and the cost of such a war?

• Geoff Bennett:

  Well, tell us more about Hezbollah's military capabilities. What kind of damage could it potentially inflict on Israel?

• Paul Salem:

  The last war between Israel and Hezbollah was in 2006, so 17 years ago.

  But, since then, Iran has resupplied Hezbollah with a much larger and a much more accurate arsenal of missiles, estimated to be well more than 100,000 missiles. These are positioned in various parts of the country. And they are — because many of them are precision missiles, according to reports that one sees from the U.S. or Israel or elsewhere, that they are able to target very critical infrastructure in Israel, as well as civilian infrastructure as well.

  And although Israel has an effective Iron Dome defense system, that can catch a large number of missiles, but certainly not all.

• Geoff Bennett:

  Does Hezbollah, in your estimation, want a war? What is it trying to signal with these strikes?

• Paul Salem:

  Hezbollah definitely does not want a full-scale war, nor does Iran.

  Hezbollah has made it clear after the Hamas attacks on Israel and after the Israeli attacks on Gaza that it will maintain a limited level of engagement or hostility across the border. In their telling, it is to pin down some of the Israeli forces in the north in order to relieve, as it were, their allies.

  And, indeed, they are their allies, Hamas in the Gaza Strip. But they have also made it clear that they do not want a full-scale escalation or a full-scale war. Israel also probably does not want a full-scale war. The U.S. as well does not want it. So, all the parties, I think, are scrambling to find a way forward, while avoiding a full-scale war.

• Geoff Bennett:

  Well, on that point, as you mentioned the potential path forward, the U.S. appears determined to find a long-term political solution to the Israeli-Hamas conflict.

  In your view, is that even possible right now?

• Paul Salem:

  For the Israel-Hamas conflict, which involves Gaza and the Palestinians, that is certainly a very, very complicated and difficult pathway forward.

  It's noteworthy to say that the American governments and the Israeli governments are on opposite pages. The current Israeli government led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, which has a lot of the right wing, their plan is to basically consolidate their occupation of the West Bank and Gaza, whereas the American plan is to get over the Gaza war and move towards open negotiation towards a two-state solution, so really very different trajectories there.

• Geoff Bennett:

  What would the U.S. role be if — and we should emphasize the word if — this war between Israel and Hamas escalates into a wider regional conflict?

• Paul Salem:

  Well, the U.S. has already made it clear that that is something it does not want to see happen.

  U.S. diplomats, led by Mr. Amos Hochstein, have been visiting at least Lebanon, which is the most likely place where the conflict could spread, in order to negotiate between the Israelis and Hezbollah to avoid a second front to this war, which would be a front between Israel and Lebanon.

  Yemen and the Houthi movement there, which is also allied with Iran, has been a place where there's been attacks from the Houthis on shipping along the Red Sea. So far, it's been fairly limited. The U.S. has led a naval operation there to protect shipping, and most shipping has resumed.

  So that is largely, I would say, being managed. It's noteworthy that escalation has not reached the Persian Gulf itself, which is where much of the world's energy is exported from. So far, that remains to be the case.

• Geoff Bennett:

  Paul Salem is president and CEO of the Middle East Institute.

  Thank you for your insights this evening.

• Paul Salem:

  Thank you.

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