State ballot measures in 2024 could drive voter turnout and change the future of elections

Geoff Bennett:

The 2024 race for the White House will take up a lot of time, attention, and money over the next 11 months.

But, as Lisa Desjardins explains, other votes next year could significantly influence the presidential campaign and our daily lives.

Lisa Desjardins:

Activists around the country are teeing up state ballot measures on a host of issues in 2024.

Watching all of them has been Reid Wilson, founder of Pluribus News, which focuses on state-level news and policy, also friend of the "NewsHour."

OK, Reid, I can imagine some people hearing this will be like, OK, state initiatives, not the most, let's say, scintillating topic. But, actually, can you help us understand how big and important these measures have become?

Reid Wilson, Founder, Pluribus News:

Yes, in a lot of states, a ballot measure can be the most expensive political campaign that happens on a statewide level.

Lisa Desjardins:

Really?

Reid Wilson:

It's not atypical for California ballot measures to cost more than $100 million.

And we're seeing the same level of spending in a lot of other states on issues where these big corporations have billions of dollars at stake.

Lisa Desjardins:

These are niche issues sometimes, but, sometimes, they're broad issues as well, like we have seen with abortion especially.

We have seen, when abortion is on the ballot or perceived to be on the ballot, voters have been turning out. That includes in Ohio in 2023, when that state pretty easily passed a measure changing the Constitution, enshrining abortion rights there.

So I want to ask you, in 2024, what do you see for the landscape for abortion the ballot in states?

Reid Wilson:

This really reminds me of 20 years ago, when gay marriage was on — gay marriage bans were on the ballot in 11 states during a presidential year. In 2024, we're likely to see abortion-related ballot measures on the ballot in about a dozen states.

And that includes some pretty swing states, places like Nevada, Arizona, even Florida. We could see abortion rights measures on the ballot. We will see an abortion restriction measure on the ballot in Iowa. Now, a lot of these are still collecting signatures, so we're not 100 percent certain that they're going to be on the ballot.

But it's very clear that abortion rights supporters have figured out that putting these measures in front of voters is a really good way to do…

(Crosstalk)

Lisa Desjardins:

This is a turnout — this is not just policy. For many, it is policy, but this is also politics.

Reid Wilson:

Well, sure. It's politics in the turnout function, but abortion rights supporters have not lost at the ballot box since Roe v. Wade was struck down. And I'm including in states like Montana, Kansas, and Kentucky. And those are very red states.

If they can get this issue in front of voters, so far, they have got a perfect record.

Lisa Desjardins:

We have also seen in this political era elections themselves on the ballot.

What do you see in terms of voters being able to weigh in on who gets to vote and how?

Reid Wilson:

Yes, there are a wide variety of election-related measures that are out there circulating right now.

The most popular are measures to implement ranked-choice voting. That is, a voter gets to pick four or five candidates who would advance to a general election and then pick among four or five, regardless of party. Only two states allow ranked-choice voting now, Alaska and Maine, but it's going to be on the ballot this year in Nevada and Oregon. And it may be on the ballot in places like Colorado, Idaho, Missouri and Montana as well.

Alaska, as a matter of fact, is trying to roll back their ranked-choice voting. Some other measures, independent redistricting committees, are likely to be on the ballot in Ohio, changing the way that they draw their congressional district lines, and then things like no-fault absentee voting, which is going to be on the ballot in Connecticut.

We think of Connecticut as a very liberal state. Well, you can't get an absentee ballot there, like you can in swing states or very conservative states.

Lisa Desjardins:

In the last bit of time that we have, I want to ask about one specific one.

In California, a state that is facing a real budget crunch, there is a ballot measure where voters will get to weigh in on maybe a new large expense about housing and mental health. What's going on?

Reid Wilson:

Governor Gavin Newsom and the Democratic legislature approved a measure this year that would — now goes to voters in March.

Voters will be asked to approve $6.4 billion in bonds to pay for housing for those with mental health challenges or substance use disorder, and focused, by the way, on veterans as well. I mean, homelessness is a massive crisis in California and in the rest of the country as well. This represents a massive investment in trying to get a lot of people off the streets into housing, into treatment.

It would spend more than a billion dollars on housing alone, more than $4 billion on treating those with some issues that are keeping them on the streets.

Lisa Desjardins:

And all of this direct democracy, we will see what the voters say.

Thank you so much, Reid Wilson.

Reid Wilson:

Thanks, Lisa.