What Trump and Putin are hoping to accomplish at summit in Alaska

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• Geoff Bennett:

  Welcome to the "News Hour."

  It was a day of expectation-setting across several nations, as President Trump prepares to meet Russia's Vladimir Putin in Alaska tomorrow. Both struck optimistic notes, but their first encounter of Mr. Trump's second term unfolds against the backdrop of Russia's war in Ukraine now in its fourth year.

• Amna Nawaz:

  For his part, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy continued a tour of European capitals, drumming up support today in London. His fraught relationship with President Trump is no secret, but the two spoke yesterday, alongside many European leaders, in preparation for tomorrow's summit.

  As Nick Schifrin reports, the stakes are high and the odds of success may be long.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Today, in the Eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, a Russian tank obliterated what was already ruined, rubble pounded further into dust, making Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's meeting today with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer more urgent to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine and more than a billion dollars worth of European weapons.

  The Europeans have rallied this week to press President Trump that any deal made with Putin start with a cease-fire, and only Zelenskyy will decide whether to swap land with Russia.

  Donald Trump, President of the United States: I think it's going to be very interesting. We're going to find out where everybody stands.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Today, President Trump admitted there's a 25 percent chance the summit could fail, but predicted the meeting would be a pivot point in history.

• Donald Trump:

  And if it's a bad meeting, it'll end very quickly. And if it's a good meeting, we're going to end up getting peace in the pretty near future.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin embraced the optimistic outlook.

• Vladimir Putin, Russian President (through interpreter):

  The stage we are at with the current American administration, which, as everyone knows, is making, in my opinion, quite energetic and sincere efforts to stop hostilities.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Putin also envisioned normalizing relations with the U.S., including extending the final existing U.S.-Russia arms control treaty set to expire early next year, a cap on the number of Russian and American deployed nuclear warheads.

  Putin's top foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, today went further, saying Friday could expand U.S.-Russia economic ties.

  Yuri Ushakov, Foreign Policy Adviser to President Putin (interpreter): An exchange of views is expected on further developing bilateral cooperation, including in the trade and economic sphere. I would like to note that this cooperation has huge and unfortunately hitherto untapped potential.

• Nick Schifrin:

  But U.S. officials tell "PBS News Hour," while President Trump is interested in those other topics, Friday is focused on ending the war in Ukraine.

  For more on tomorrow's summit between President Trump and Putin, we turn to Dmitri Trenin, a longtime analyst based in Moscow who was the head of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Moscow office and is now professor at the Higher School of Economics University.

  Dmitri Trenin, thanks very much. Welcome back to the "News Hour."

  U.S. officials described President Trump's goal to me tomorrow as getting a cease-fire from Vladimir Putin and hearing a fundamental idea that Putin is willing to end the war. So is President Putin willing to accept a cease-fire and willing to end the war?

  Dmitri Trenin, Higher School of Economics University: Well, I think that, from the Russian perspective, the agenda of the meeting in Alaska is much broader.

  There is an element, a huge element of that deals with Ukraine. But then there is a lot of interest in discussing the future of the badly damaged U.S.-Russian relations. Now, in the Russian thinking, a cease-fire is a very important element of the resolution of the conflict. But it cannot be the only element, and it cannot come first.

• Nick Schifrin:

  So just to be clear, that position that the cease-fire should not come first is not acceptable to Ukraine. So do you believe that Russia believes that it can make a deal with the United States, even if that deal is unacceptable to Ukraine?

• Dmitri Trenin:

  Well, Russia is talking — or President Putin will be talking to the president of the United States. And it is a bilateral meeting. And they will discuss a lot of issues, including Ukraine.

  But this is not — at this point, this is not the place to discuss the situation with the Ukrainians and the Europeans.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Even if there were a cease-fire, would President Putin, would Russia be willing to stop where it is today?

• Dmitri Trenin:

  Russia has declared the entire territories of the new Russia, the four regions in the southeast of Ukraine, as Russia's constitutional territory. And it's a stated goal of Russia to have those territories in full incorporated into the Russian Federation.

• Nick Schifrin:

  But, again, does Russia expect a conversation with the United States to come up with some kind of deal, including a land swap, that we already know Ukraine will reject?

• Dmitri Trenin:

  I think that time will come when Ukraine will have to accept the realities. And I think that Ukraine will recognize at some point the truth that its security and its future existence actually depend on a good relationship with Russia.

• Nick Schifrin:

  We have talked about the map. We have talked about these regions. But, for Russia, is this really about the map? Is it not more about the nature of Kyiv's future, whether that's the size of the military that it can yield, its support from the West, or in fact its membership in Western institutions?

• Dmitri Trenin:

  Well, I think it means — well, the territorial issue is part of the bigger picture.

  But the bigger picture includes — and I think that this is far more important than any territorial changes — the security aspect. And security aspect for Russia means exactly no NATO membership for Ukraine and no NATO in Ukraine. It means a military force that will not be threatening Russia.

• Nick Schifrin:

  You mentioned the threat that Russia sees posed by Ukraine's military. Of course, Ukraine sees the long-term threat posed by Russia's military.

  President Trump has talked to European leaders about security guarantees for Ukraine, whether that's a level of military support or whether that's punishment on Russia if it were to launch another full-scale war against Ukraine.

  Is Russia at the point where it could accept some kind of what the West calls security guarantees for Ukraine to make a deal?

• Dmitri Trenin:

  Well, I think a good security guarantee for Ukraine would be strict neutrality between Russia and NATO. That's the best security guarantee you can think of, which would lead to a correct, normal and productive relationship with Russia, as well as with the West, but excluding the military dimension.

• Nick Schifrin:

  As you know, that is an unacceptable position for Ukraine, which says the only guarantee that it can have against Russia is a robust military with Western support.

  So is there not a fundamental gap here that means that there cannot be a long-term deal between Russia and Moscow, regardless of what Donald Trump wants?

• Dmitri Trenin:

  Well, at this point, I don't think that Ukraine is ready to face up to the realities and the potential future of this conflict.

  But I'm sure that, at some point, they will have to face up to those things and accept the reality.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Dmitri Trenin, thank you very much.

• Dmitri Trenin:

  You're welcome.

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