What’s behind the alarming rise in near-collisions of commercial airplanes

Geoff Bennett:

There has been an alarming number of near-miss collisions between airplanes, a problem that's more common than previously understood, according to a recent investigation by The New York Times.

In a review of FAA reports and a NASA database, The Times found there were at least 46 close calls involving commercial air flights in July. And runway incursions that could lead to accidents are up 25 percent higher than a decade ago.

To help break down what's behind this and what can be done, we're joined by our aviation correspondent, Miles O'Brien.

Miles, it's always great to see you.

So, let's lay out some definitions. What does the FAA mean by near miss or close calls?

Miles O'Brien:

Well, there's a bubble around every aircraft, Geoff, and it depends. The bubble's size varies depending on where that aircraft happens to be.

It can be a number of miles at altitude, but as you get closer and closer to the airport, it shrinks. And so it can be anywhere between 3,000 and 6,000 feet distance between two aircraft that are arriving and departing at an airport.

And any time you get inside that bubble, that's technically considered an incursion and something that should be reported. Now, there are degrees of severity within that. You can imagine something within 6,000 feet, which is more than a mile.

If it's just inside that bubble, might not be that big a deal, but if it gets a lot more close than that, the attention level goes up, as it should.

Geoff Bennett:

What accounts for the apparent uptick in these events? What's the FAA saying about that?

Miles O'Brien:

Well, it — statistically, the FAA says it doesn't bear itself out.

According to FAA statistics, if you level out these statistics, based on the number of arrivals and departures, over a million arrivals and departures, there have been 31 incursions this particular year.

Now, that actually is on a little bit of a decline from the peak. Right after COVID, it was 34 per million. Having said that, there's been a flurry of activity which has a lot of people in the aviation world a little worried. The light is flashing yellow, maybe red.

And when you look at some of the issues here, at the heart of it is, the flying public is back with a vengeance. And the airline industry, after the pandemic, lost a lot of people both in control towers and in cockpits, and has not been able to respond quickly enough to this surge in air travel.

Geoff Bennett:

You mentioned the shortage of air traffic controllers.

I remember reporting on that almost 10 years ago. Why is this problem so persistent? And why is it so acute right now?

Miles O'Brien:

It's — it got worse during the pandemic, for sure, and it's been a consistent problem staffing these control towers and air traffic control facilities.

During the pandemic, a lot of controller training was — well, it was pretty much eliminated because of distance, spacing requirements due to the pandemic. And, at any given time, 20 percent of controllers are training for either to get started or get a new position. So, that caused a huge training backlog once the pandemic was over.

Then you had several controllers who have been taking early retirement because of the reduced staffing inside these facilities. They're working long hours. They're working overtime hours. They're working strange shifts.

And to say this is a stressful job is a bit of an understatement. And so the FAA is trying to hire. But, again, they're ahead of the — or behind the power curve here. Hiring 1,500 or 1600 of controllers, it'll be four or five years before they're up to speed.

Geoff Bennett:

And adding to the shortage of air traffic controllers, Miles, there's also a pilot shortage too, right?

Miles O'Brien:

Yes.

There's a lot of reasons for this. They — after the last fatal airline crash in the U.S., which was in 2009 — that's a remarkable 14-year safety record, by the way, Geoff. It's worth pointing that out at some point in this.

But Congress increased the number of hours required for pilots to fly commercially to 1,500, and that has made it — raised the bar for young pilots to get in the game. The military is producing fewer pilots for the airlines. The airlines kind of got free training over the years.

The airlines are trying to respond by training more young people themselves. But also, during the pandemic, a lot of pilots took early retirement. So there's a big gap right now. And it takes a long time to fill those cockpits with fully qualified pilots.

Geoff Bennett:

What about technology, Miles?

The FAA is often accused of being slow to adopt and incorporate new technology. Is that part of this as well?

Miles O'Brien:

It is.

I mean, to their credit, there are technologies out there that are really important in all this, including collision-avoidance systems on board aircraft, which help save the day as a last resort. But at the end of the day, this is a system that is built around spinning radars, kind of 1950s technology.

And that is actually what dictates that separation bubble, those separation bubbles I was telling you about. You could reduce them if you had a more instantaneous satellite-driven system that didn't rely on those radars.

And one other thing. As a pilot, one of my biggest concerns and complaints is, we rely too much on talking on the radio, VHF radios. And there's all kinds of opportunities for misunderstanding, miscommunication, which can lead to problems.

Geoff Bennett:

Aviation correspondent Miles O'Brien.

Miles, thanks so much.

Miles O'Brien:

You're welcome, Geoff.