Why a deadly strain of bird flu is making egg prices soar nationwide

John Yang:

If you go grocery shopping, you don't need us to tell you that eggs are expensive and in some places in limited supply. In 2024, the average price of a dozen large grade a eggs jumped 65 percent while overall food prices rose just two and a half percent. And the Agriculture Department predicts prices will go up another 20 percent this year.

A big reason for these sky high egg prices, the bird flu outbreak that started in 2022. Since then, efforts to limit the spread of the virus have led to the slaughter of more than 145 million chickens, turkeys and other birds, the vast majority of them egg laying chickens. Two perspectives on this story.

David Anderson is a professor and livestock economist at Texas A and M University. And Angela Rasmussen is a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan. David, let me start with you.

Help us by putting these prices, these high prices into perspective. In the historical context, where do they stand?

David Anderson, Texas A&M University:

Well, these are all time record high prices. So, you know, in a historical context, we're at the peak. We're the highest they've ever been.

John Yang:

Are there some regions of the country that are harder hit the prices are higher than in others?

David Anderson:

Well, yeah, there are. Particularly if we look at the coast, New York and California, we certainly see higher prices there for the same reason they're always higher in those locations. One is it's a long way from where we produced the majority of the eggs in the U.S. to those markets. But you know, once you get down, if you're going to deliver to a store in New York City, you know, it's probably a little more costly to get to those markets.

John Yang:

And David, how big a factor is bird flu in this and are there other factors as well?

David Anderson:

That really is the key factor. That really is the factor in these prices. You know, we have other things like a long term increase in demand for eggs as we've increased our protein in our diets. Eggs compete as a protein source with meats and other vegetable protein sources.

But you know, those long term trends and increasing demand are really dwarfed by this sudden shock to the system of a disease outbreak that wipes out a portion of our supplies.

John Yang:

Angela, let me ask you about this disease outbreak. Tell us about this latest strain of the bird flu and why it's so persistent.

Angela Rasmussen, University of Saskatchewan: So there's actually multiple strains of the bird flu that are currently circulating in wild birds as well as in the nation's dairy cattle. We actually have multiple spillovers occurring to these different poultry farms. Some of these viruses are coming from wild birds, some of these viruses are coming from wild birds that have contracted the virus from the dairy cows.

There's a number of other species, such as cats as well, that are also getting infected. So there's actually quite a lot of H5N1 influenza viruses circulating around in the environment in other species of animals. And that is partly responsible for both the increased number of flock outbreaks as well as the increased number of human cases.

John Yang:

Talk about those human cases. The CDC says that in the United States there are about 66 human cases. And last recently we had the first death of in the United States. What's the risk to humans and how worried should people be about it?

Angela Rasmussen:

Yeah, so this is a really complicated question because people should definitely be concerned about it. But at this time, the risk to the general population is quite low. And part of the reason for that is we've seen no evidence of sustained human to human transmission with these viruses.

So every one of these human cases is actually getting the virus from animal, either from a bird, the case that you mentioned that was severe and died was contracting the virus from a backyard flock of poultry, or they're getting it from dairy cattle. So these are a lot of occupational exposures that we're seeing. We're not actually seeing the virus spread from human to human.

That said, that's good news, but it's still very concerning because the more human cases there are, the greater the likelihood that this virus could mutate to be able to transmit efficiently from human to human. So while the risk to the population is low unless you're handling or in close proximity with one of these animal species, we really do need to keep an eye on this to make sure that any human to human transmission is detected before it has the opportunity to spread outward into the human population.

John Yang:

And Angela, should people be concerned or worried about eating eggs, for instance?

Angela Rasmussen:

So eggs are actually quite safe to eat, as is milk, as long as it's cooked or pasteurized. I wouldn't recommend eating raw eggs right now because we do know that eggs can support the growth of influenza viruses. In fact, that's how we often grow vaccines for flu. They really grow up a lot of virus. So make sure you cook the eggs, make sure you're drinking pasteurized milk, but otherwise the food supply is safe.

John Yang:

David, what's it going to take to bring these prices down to Earth?

David Anderson:

Well, the first thing we need is the disease to quit occurring and wiping out chicken farms. And the second thing is just time. Time to rebuild flocks to replace the lost birds. And that just takes a little bit of time.

John Yang:

Talk about that how? I mean, we're talking about the flocks that have been destroyed. As soon as it shows up in a flock, they — to try to keep it from spreading, they destroy the flock. How long does it take to rebuild that flock?

David Anderson:

Well, it takes about 26 weeks to grow a hen, a pullet, they're called, to get them to where they start laying eggs. And then it takes a little while longer eggs fully sized. The first ones are kind of small. So to get to the eggs, the large ones that we see at the store, or extra large, if you like, those takes a little bit longer.

And so, you know, just think about, you know, here we are with biology. That's really our time constraint. It just takes some time to do that. You know, although we can look at egg prices and they're highly volatile. You know, we go back to 2022, '23, and went from over $5 a dozen to $0.84 per dozen by May of '23. So the potential for lower prices is there. Just given a little bit of time.

John Yang:

David Anderson, Angela Rasmussen, thank you both very much.

Angela Rasmussen:

Thanks for having me.

David Anderson:

Thank you.