Will rising tensions lead Israel and Iran into war?

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• John Yang:

  Now back to the Israeli raids on Iranian targets in Syria.

  Why did Israel act? And is the Middle East on the verge of a wider war?

  David Makovsky is a former journalist and is now the director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He's in Tel Aviv tonight. And Mark Perry is a contributing editor to "The American Conservative" magazine. He's the author of "Talking to Terrorists: Why America Must Engage With Its Enemies."

  Gentlemen, thank you both for being here tonight.

  Mark, let me start with you.

  We heard in the taped piece just before this the Israelis are presenting this as a defensive measure. The prime minister says Iran crossed a red line by establishing military infrastructure in Syria. Is that the way you see it?

• Mark Perry:

  Not really.

  I think that this is a dangerous escalation. We have 27 — Israel had 27 F-16s in the air over Syria hitting Iranian military targets. Mr. Netanyahu says it was a red line, but the Iranians have been in Syria for a long, long time and have had a relationship here.

  This is a dangerous escalation. It's hard to know where it will end. It's been quiet today, but there's no promise that it is going to remain quiet into tomorrow. I think Mr. Netanyahu owes the world an explanation of what he's doing and where it will lead.

• John Yang:

  David, the view from Tel Aviv. Do you agree?

• David Makovsky:

  No, that's certainly not the way it's seen over here, and not just here.

  I think there have been condemnations from European leaders May, Merkel and Macron today against Iran. It's clear Israel has tried to stay out of the Syrian civil war all these years, but as it sees Assad winning the war, it sees the payoff that Assad is giving to his Iranian allies is to be further entrenched in Syria in a way that Israel fears will replicate what happens in Lebanon, where you have over 100,000 Hezbollah rockets perched on Israel's border.

  It should be remembered that Damascus is 1,000 miles from Tehran. So that's not exactly defensive, I think, in the eyes of these European leaders, the United States and certainly Israel. Israel says you have got to nip it in the bud early before Iran entrenches itself further.

• John Yang:

  But, David, Israel has been carrying out actions against Iranian targets in Syria sort of little bits and pieces, but last night they were out in front on this. They came out and said, yes, this is us, we did this, this is what we hit.

  Why the different response or explanation this time?

• David Makovsky:

  Well because what's different is that Iran hit Israel, and four were intercepted by the Iron Dome. A lot of them, the rockets, didn't make it that far.

  So Iran is has moved it up a notch by going cross-border over to Israel. So Israel now, the veil of deniability, I think, is over. And Israel, for the first time, went public.

• John Yang:

  And, Mark, you say you see this as an escalation. Why now? Why is Israel doing this now?

• Mark Perry:

  That's a good question.

  You know, I think there's a lot of pointing fingers here, which doesn't really help, that Iran is blaming Israel and Israel is blaming Iran.

  But I think the facts on the ground have remained steadfast for 30 years. Iran has been in Syria for a long time, and Hezbollah is established well in Southern Lebanon. That's not going to change.

  So, why the rocket attacks? I think — and why the Israeli intervention? And I think that Israel saw this as an opportunity, in the wake of President Trump's decision on the Iran — unrolling the Iran nuclear deal. They saw this as an opportunity to make a point. They knew that America would come to their defense.

  They knew that President Trump would defend this. They knew that they would blame Iran. So this is a great opportunity for Israel to make a point and make a point militarily.

• John Yang:

  David, what about that point about the timing, about the fact that this came so quickly on the heels of the president of the United States pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal?

• David Makovsky:

  Look, I respectfully disagree with Mark, and it gets to the timing issue, too.

  And it could be here that Iran's response was waiting for the JCPOA announcement of Trump. I do think that is possible. The Israeli attacks on the infrastructure have been for the last few months. There's been a shadow war.

  It's really only started in earnest, I would argue, since September, when Iran has created new facilities. Yes, Mark is right that Iran has had a longtime relationship with Syria, but what's new is, they're creating facilities to upgrade rockets into missiles that can hit Israel with high precision.

  There's now all these Shia-backed proxies that Iran is pouring in from Afghanistan, Pakistan. They never used to be in Syria. And they want to set up a naval base and they want to set up an air base. And they're now in five Syrian bases.

  This is a new level, and we should realize here that we're on the threshold of something new. I hope that cool heads will prevail and that maybe some sort of red-line agreement will be reached. I might agree with Mark that you're not going to get every Iranian out of Syria, but there should be certain understandings of what Iran can do in Syria.

  We don't need to see a Syria-Lebanon stereo situation with rockets coming. This is a destabilizing move by Iran. And we should nip this thing in the bud, we and the United States and the rest of the — and Europe and support and make sure that Iran doesn't cross this line.

• John Yang:

  Mark, regardless of which side is doing the destabilization, I think that we can all agree that this is — there is the potential and danger for escalation here.

  How do you avoid this? How do you avoid this becoming a wider war, a hotter war?

• Mark Perry:

  It's going to be difficult to do, but the danger of a wider war has always been there, and cooler heads have prevailed.

  This was a clear escalation, but today we have had kind of a walk-back a little bit over the last 24 hours. A war with Iran is not in Israel's interest. And a war with Israel is not in Iran's interest.

  What's interesting to me is the role that Russia has played here. Russia, Mr. Putin, clearly, according to the most recent reports, has made it — has told Mr. Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, not to hit Syrian sites. So they're targeting Iran.

  We are at the beginning of a new rules of the road in this conflict. It's not in anyone's interest to see it escalate. And, hopefully, the calm of the last 24 hours will remain.

• John Yang:

  David Makovsky, what is the — the new rules of the road, will the calm remain?

• David Makovsky:

  Look, I agree with Mark that no one should want to see an escalation here.

  I think it's clear what Iran could do to avert that. To the extent the United States and Russia they could actually work together on something, there is a commonality of interest, it seems to me, to have certain red lines respected.

  And that means no Iranian infrastructure in Syria. They want economic projects with Syria, they want other forms of cooperation with Syria, fine, but just don't transform Iran's position on Syria like you have in Lebanon with over 100,000 rockets.

  You're in the early phases. You can nip it in the bud. At a certain point, it is going to be too late. I hope the great powers here will come together and create a sense of red-line understandings, so this doesn't escalate, because I agree war is not in anybody's interest.

• John Yang:

  David Makovsky in Tel Aviv, Mark Perry, thank you very much.

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