Inflection Point: What's the practical life span of DTV?
Futurists, especially those who claim to have a methodology beyond psychic prediction, tend to rely primarily on Moore's Law for figuring out what technology will be like 5, 10, or 20 years from now. But Moore's Law, which predicts that computing power will drop in cost by 50 percent every 18 months, isn't some absolute speed limit and some measures of technical achievement are actually moving faster than Moore's Law predicts. It's not that they violate the law (if it even IS a law) but that they take advantage of loopholes like the one where Moore's Law can sometimes be applied TO ITSELF, leading to even faster change. That's what's about to happen to television and why your new digital television probably won't matter much...
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