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I, Cringely - The Survival of the Nerdiest with Robert X. Cringely
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Predictions
BOB Predictions TRIBE Predictions
BOB Predictions
Read and vote on all of Bob's 2006 predictions below. Be sure to check back for updates...you can even change your confidence vote as new information comes in! How often is Bob really right? Check Bob's Batting Average in the archive.
#15
OUTCOME: No Way!

The reason Apple changed its MacWorld announcements at the last minute was because the company sued little Burst.com a few days before, trying to invalidate the Burst patents. But since Apple sued Burst, Burst shares have gone UP by 30 percent. The market is rarely wrong. Suing Burst was an enormous mistake for Apple, casting a pall on their video strategy and potentially costing the company strategic alliances with networks and movie studios. Apple realizes...more >>>
Status: [OPEN] comments (7) | related links (0)
Confidence Poll
Status: [CLOSED] responses (22)
Will Bob's prediction come true?
64%
RIGHT ON!
36%
NO WAY!
#14
OUTCOME: No Way!

Whatever we expect from Google might just as easily appear from Yahoo, too. With so much attention on Google, Yahoo is operating under the RADAR and will have several surprises for the market while AOL continues to shrink.more >>>
Status: [OPEN] comments (0) | related links (0)
Confidence Poll
Status: [CLOSED] responses (6)
Will Bob's prediction come true?
50%
RIGHT ON!
50%
NO WAY!
#13
OUTCOME: No Way!

EBay stumbles with Skype, which won't contribute much to the company in 2006 OR 2007, though the whole VoIP segment will boom.more >>>
Status: [OPEN] comments (2) | related links (0)
Confidence Poll
Status: [CLOSED] responses (5)
Will Bob's prediction come true?
20%
RIGHT ON!
80%
NO WAY!
#12
OUTCOME: Right On!

Google WON'T go head-to-head with Microsoft for a desktop operating system or a cheap PC.more >>>
Status: [OPEN] comments (4) | related links (0)
Confidence Poll
Status: [CLOSED] responses (220)
Will Bob's prediction come true?
92%
RIGHT ON!
8%
NO WAY!
#11
OUTCOME: Right On!

Intel is spending $2 billion to re-brand itself as a consumer electronics company because the future is in being cheaper, not faster. The next big consumer market will be a network computing appliance. When it hits anyone's processor can be used and Intel will be $2 billion behind.more >>>
Status: [OPEN] comments (1) | related links (0)
Confidence Poll
Status: [CLOSED] responses (169)
Will Bob's prediction come true?
48%
RIGHT ON!
52%
NO WAY!
#10
OUTCOME: No Way!

TiVO will be bought by another company.more >>>
Status: [OPEN] comments (0) | related links (0)
Confidence Poll
Status: [CLOSED] responses (192)
Will Bob's prediction come true?
38%
RIGHT ON!
62%
NO WAY!
#9
OUTCOME: Right On!

Embedded devices will hurt Media Center PC sales, which will continue to be pitiful.more >>>
Status: [OPEN] comments (0) | related links (0)
Confidence Poll
Status: [CLOSED] responses (196)
Will Bob's prediction come true?
76%
RIGHT ON!
24%
NO WAY!
#8
OUTCOME: Right On!

WiMax is still 12 months away. It will take until then for Sprint-Nextel to get its act together and put further downward pressure on broadband pricing. more >>>
Status: [OPEN] comments (1) | related links (0)
Confidence Poll
Status: [CLOSED] responses (137)
Will Bob's prediction come true?
79%
RIGHT ON!
21%
NO WAY!
#7
OUTCOME: Right On!

Sony's PS3 hits the market with a dearth of games. Howard Stringer loses his job, not because of the game problems but because he's undermined by the Japanese parts of his company. But there is good news for Sony, too. Internet video and viral marketing hit new mobile platforms like the PSP, which will become a medium in itself for the school age set. Imagine downloadable advertiser-paid TV shows for tweenies.more >>>
Status: [OPEN] comments (1) | related links (0)
Confidence Poll
Status: [CLOSED] responses (201)
Will Bob's prediction come true?
79%
RIGHT ON!
21%
NO WAY!
#6
OUTCOME: Right On!

Microsoft still sucks at security and users suffer for it. My best guess is they are planning on putting all this new technology in the "next" operating system, which seems to be yet another year behind schedule. The important question the world will soon be asking -- "Do we need another Windows operating system?" In 2006, Windows XP gets another service pack and/or facelift. Nothing more.more >>>
Status: [OPEN] comments (0) | related links (0)
Confidence Poll
Status: [CLOSED] responses (191)
Will Bob's prediction come true?
84%
RIGHT ON!
16%
NO WAY!
#5
OUTCOME: Right On!

IBM will get in trouble with its customers as it becomes clear that Sam Palmisano didn't learn much, if anything, from Lou Gerstner. Gerstner's fat-cutting is long forgotten, so all IBM knows how to cut these days is customer service. more >>>
Status: [OPEN] comments (5) | related links (0)
Confidence Poll
Status: [CLOSED] responses (155)
Will Bob's prediction come true?
50%
RIGHT ON!
50%
NO WAY!
#4
OUTCOME: Right On!

Still no good news for Sun. Those Galaxy servers are very nice, but they aren't enough to support the company and Eric Schmidt is too smart (I hope) to bail out his old firm.more >>>
Status: [OPEN] comments (3) | related links (0)
Confidence Poll
Status: [CLOSED] responses (163)
Will Bob's prediction come true?
71%
RIGHT ON!
29%
NO WAY!
#3
OUTCOME: No Way!

But Apple WILL make some inroads against Microsoft. The new Intel Macs will run Windows XP unofficially, and Apple Support acknowledges that they are only days from running XP officially, too. So Apple finally has a solid argument why Windows-centric companies and homes should consider trying a Mac. The best case, though, says that Apple sells an additional million units, which aren't enough for Steve Jobs, so I see him going into a kind of...more >>>
Status: [OPEN] comments (1) | related links (0)
Confidence Poll
Status: [CLOSED] responses (238)
Will Bob's prediction come true?
53%
RIGHT ON!
47%
NO WAY!
#2
OUTCOME: No Way!

Apple will eventually announce all the products they were supposed to have announced at this week's MacWorld show, but didn't, including a bunch of media content deals, a huge expansion of .Mac to one TERABYTE per month of download capacity per user, a new version of the Front Row DVR application, and two new Intel Macs with huge plasma displays, but with keyboards and mice as options -- literally big-screen TVs that just happen to...more >>>
Status: [OPEN] comments (0) | related links (0)
Confidence Poll
Status: [CLOSED] responses (203)
Will Bob's prediction come true?
62%
RIGHT ON!
38%
NO WAY!
#1
OUTCOME: No Way!

Enough about Apple. Google will continue to roll out new products and services as it builds out its infrastructure for a huge push in 2007. They'll need money, of course, so I predict a supplemental stock offering timed with a 20-to-1 stock split. 2006 is a building year for Google.more >>>
Status: [OPEN] comments (0) | related links (0)
Confidence Poll
Status: [CLOSED] responses (146)
Will Bob's prediction come true?
66%
RIGHT ON!
34%
NO WAY!