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I, Cringely - The Survival of the Nerdiest with Robert X. Cringely
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BOB Predictions
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Video Brings Down U.S. Net

Status: [CLOSED] comments (4) | confidence poll
The year the net crashed (in the USA). Video overwhelms the net and we all learn that the broadband ISPs have been selling us something they can't really deliver.
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Comments from the Tribe

Status: [CLOSED] read all comments (4) |

Bob, with H.264 becoming the compression standard for the web, and its pretty amazing ability to compress, I have to disagree with this prediction. FWIW, you are right a lot more than you are wrong. Now, when is Leopard being released? That's the prediction I'd like to see! Rod L.

Rod L. | Apr 06, 2007 | 8:45AM

Hi Bob,

I don't see it happening this year, or next, or probably the year after that either.

I think you're ignoring one very large chunk of the puzzle that is buried under our feet - millions of miles of dark fiber. The telecoms were pretty smart when they did their build outs in the 1990s and laid more fiber than just what they needed. There's still a ton of capacity out there and cable and dsl isn't touching a large portion of the capacity that they can handle down to the last mile.

colson | May 05, 2007 | 2:16AM

It won't happen ever. Businesses punish bandwidth abusers, even if the users purchased the bandwidth.

James | Sep 13, 2007 | 11:23AM