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I, Cringely - The Survival of the Nerdiest with Robert X. Cringely
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Predictions
BOB Predictions TRIBE Predictions
Status: [CLOSED]

Bob, first of all I have to tell you how much I enjoyed your PBS video on the history of home PCs. (It was a blast. When is your next PBS video on the history of computers coming out?) As to video breaking the web - here's my two cents. I work with a web video compression program from Sorenson called Squeeze 4.3. This program compresses the video to such an extent that it can take a 700 mb file and shrink it down to 1.2 mb or even less. I have video on my web site and I stream at 300 to 400 k per second. I once was at an interview an the man had a Mac laptop which had a wifi connection to a coffee shop that was literally eight floors below and still could see my streaming video. It was very neat. So, it is my feeling that if the video is compressed properly the web won't really break. The web has never been able to handle large uncompressed video files. Squeeze is the answer. I have noticed that my digital cable has gotten a little sluggish on some web sites on some days. I don't know if this has anything to do with video but it may be a combination of video streaming, increasing web traffic, and the like. Besides video compression, another option is in building a web site around XHTML principals and CSS. I have found that CSS loads much faster than the old table based way - but this amount of kilobytes per seconds is totally miniscule.

Steve Constable | Jan 22, 2007 | 3:45PM

Bob, with H.264 becoming the compression standard for the web, and its pretty amazing ability to compress, I have to disagree with this prediction. FWIW, you are right a lot more than you are wrong. Now, when is Leopard being released? That's the prediction I'd like to see! Rod L.

Rod L. | Apr 06, 2007 | 8:45AM

Hi Bob,

I don't see it happening this year, or next, or probably the year after that either.

I think you're ignoring one very large chunk of the puzzle that is buried under our feet - millions of miles of dark fiber. The telecoms were pretty smart when they did their build outs in the 1990s and laid more fiber than just what they needed. There's still a ton of capacity out there and cable and dsl isn't touching a large portion of the capacity that they can handle down to the last mile.

colson | May 05, 2007 | 2:16AM

It won't happen ever. Businesses punish bandwidth abusers, even if the users purchased the bandwidth.

James | Sep 13, 2007 | 11:23AM