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I, Cringely - The Survival of the Nerdiest with Robert X. Cringely
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BOB Predictions
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#26
OUTCOME: Pending

VCs Will Back Community Banks for Technology Companies

Status: [OPEN] comments (0) | add a comment | confidence poll
My last prediction for 2009 has to do with venture capital. While investments in technology will continue, the really smart VCs will realize there is a much better and more certain way to make a ton of money in the short term: start a bank. Look for the rebirth of community banks, in this case backed by VCs. Work with me on this one. There is no credit available because the big banks won't lend. But it takes only about $20 million to start a very fine little bank that WILL loan money because the cash can be acquired from the Fed for almost nothing and lent at high rates to technology companies that can pay it back. By creating banks the technology industry will become self-funding. And when the big banks finally stop being frozen with fear and want to take back the lending business, they'll have to buy all those little banks for at least a 10X multiple. It's not like starting Cisco or Dell, but a 10-bagger business model that can be replicated over and over again while actually helping the nation can't fail.
UPDATES
Confidence Poll

Status: [OPEN] responses (301) | July 25, 2014

Will Bob's prediction come true?
40%
AGREE
52%
DISAGREE
Track the Tribe's confidence over time

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